April 23, 2026

Predictive Analysis

Mercenaries, Spies & Private Eyes, Part 2 – Is the PMC Era Coming To An End?

 

 

 

 



 

Mercenaries have been around for a very long time; so long, in fact, that working as a “sell sword” is regarded as a prime candidate for the title, “The Second Oldest Profession”; the Freedomist even covered this previously. During the Italian Renaissance, the sometimes substantial forces of various condottieri mercenary captains had a noted and significant impart on Western History. In the modern day, from 2003 onwards, this has been exemplified by the rise of the “Private Military Company” (PMC).

While some people may think that mercenaries are a relatively recent phenomena, having been largely eliminated after the Napoleonic Wars, the truth is that the profession has continued on up to the present day, albeit on a more individual level, more than massed units like the hired Hessian troops of the American War of Independence.

(An important note is that those to whom the 19th Century term “filibusters”, as related to military activity, applied were not ‘mercenaries’ in the traditional sense, as military filibustering was rarely done at the behest of any internal faction in a country. Military filibusters were essentially well-armed bandits with political aspirations.)

Many military figures of world history were mercenaries at one time or another, figures like the Athenian general and historian Xenophon, author of The Anabasis, which chronicles the withdrawal of some ten thousand mostly-Greek mercenaries from the Achemenid Empire, to Baron Friedrich Wilhelm von Steuben, the Prussian professional soldier who joined George Washington’s army, and had such an impact on it, that he is regarded as one of the ‘founding fathers’ of the United States Army.

 

Baron Frederick William von Steuben, c.1780. Painted by artist Charles Willson Peale (1741–1827). Public Domain.

 

In the aftermath of the overthrow and ultimate execution of French king Louis XVI, France instituted what we would now refer to as “national mobilization”, the vast size of the armies the revolutionary government was able to field proved so attractive to nations everywhere, notions of unique national character were deliberately reinforced. As a result, it came to be considered odd – if not more than a little dirty – to serve in the armed forces of another state.

And yet such service, primarily for money, continued. The French Foreign Legion, established in 1831, was created to place foreigners who had previously served as mercenaries in French royal service, into the French Army for service outside of France. Smaller such units appeared from time to time, but after about 1820 or so, the “Soldier of Fortune” phase began in earnest, first with the Filibusters, but soon incorporating many individuals, mostly former soldiers but also a few pure amateurs, who were what we would now call “adrenaline junkies”, following reports of wars breaking out in various places around the world, where formal military education and technical abilities were scarce. The advanced education and experience of many of these individuals often proved invaluable to their employers. As just one example, British Royal Navy Captain (later Rear-Admiral) Thomas Cochrane, 10th Earl of Dundonald, was instrumental in creating the revolutionary navies of Brazil, Chile and Peru, in the 1820’s and 30’s.

 

Admiral Lord Cochrane, portrait of James Ramsay, c.1830. Public Domain

 

By the 1890’s, “freebooters” and soldiers of fortune were seemingly everywhere, fighting for almost all sides in world conflict zones. With the advent of weapons such as practical machine guns and quick-firing artillery, coupled to a highly permissive “cash-n-carry” environment for buying weapons, meant that those individual’s technical skills were often absolutely decisive in conflicts in remote areas.

Following World War’s 1 & 2, however, the world saw the return of mass national mobilization, and a reinforcement of the perceived uniqueness of national character. As a result, aside from long-established units like the French Foreign Legion, “mercenary work” mostly vanished completely, for about fifteen years. As the tensions of the Cold War increased, however, the decolonization of Africa initiated a series of “proxy wars”, which would define much of the following thirty years. In 1961, mercenaries returned to the world’s consciousness in force – both literally and figuratively.

In 1961, Thomas Michael Hoare (who would come to be known as “Mad Mike”), a former officer in the British Army and veteran of the Burma Campaign in the Second World War, was hired by Moïse Tshombe, the leader of the nascent breakaway province of Katanga, to form the core of an army to secure the state’s independence.

Although that effort was ultimately unsuccessful, Tshombe – in the absolutely wild world of Congolese politics (YouTube link; language warning) – was recalled to become the country’s fifth Prime Minister in mid-1964, to deal with the so-called “Simba Uprising”, a massive and extremely bloody rebellion in the vast state’s northeastern regions. Tshombe, in turn, recalled Hoare to recruit a force of mercenaries to act as a spearhead to the wavering Congolese Army. Hoare promptly recruited mercenaries through newspaper advertisements in South Africa and Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), and formed his unit as “5 Commando, ANC”.

 

Troops of the mercenary-led 5 Commando, ANC, during Operation ‘Dragon Rouge’, 1964. US Army Photo. Public Domain.

 

Although the force got off to a rocky start, it was quickly whipped into shape (mostly by enforcing a regimen of discipline that western armies had long ago abandoned.) Hoare quickly began rolling up the Simba’s, in a series of operations that resulted in the liberation of Stanleyville (now Kisangani). In traditional mercenary fashion, Hoare’s c.300 mercenary troops and their Congolese allies happily sacked the city in the aftermath, blasting open bank vaults and looting anything not nailed down. Atrocities – although nowhere near the levels committed by the Simba’s – were rampant. Hoare’s unit would ultimately be disbanded in 1967, after some six years of mostly-successful operations. A few other pseudo-units of (mostly White) mercenaries came and went in the Congo during the 1960’s, contributing to actions that would leave the Congo devastated into the modern day.

Mercenary activity simmered for another twenty years, with Western mercenaries – usually, but not always, former soldiers – taking part in many, possibly a majority, of the conflicts of the 1970’s and 80’s. In the aftermath of the rise and fall of “Executive Outcomes” (defunct in 1998, but recently reestablished), the prototype for the modern PMC, the United Nations passed a frankly idiotic and laughably unenforceable prohibition against mercenaries, “formally” outlawing the practice and denying them status as prisoners of war under the increasingly irrelevant Geneva Conventions…which were rarely, if ever, extended to captured mercenaries, in any case.

The September 11th, 2001 attacks are what ultimately rode to the rescue of the mercenary profession. The reason was painfully simple: With the end of the Cold War in 1991, most of the nations of the world severely trimmed their massive military establishments, leaving their capability to deploy military force critically short. As there were no national mobilizations after the attacks, and the dawning of the “Global War on Terror” mostly took the form of actions by small units of superbly (and expensively) trained special forces units, backed up by comparatively small numbers of conventional troops, the military landscape seemed to have changed.

 

A Special Forces company commander meets with village elders and members of the 1st Kandak, 209th Afghan National Army Corps April 10, 2007. Photo Credit: Specialist Daniel Love, U.S. Army. Public Domain.

 

However, this change was actually a mirage, an image warped by a declining lack of military knowledge among the general population. In fact, the cuts in manpower during the 1990’s had been so deep, across the globe, that military forces – including those of the United States – were left completely incapable of operating for any length of time in a war zone. With the various wars and military actions abroad becoming increasingly unpopular “back home”, there was no interest in trying to expand the manpower numbers of western military forces (which is an entirely different story on its own), a solution had to be found, and quickly.

This is what led to the rise of the 21st Century PMC.

Private Military Companies are a polite legal fiction, designed to hide their status as mercenaries (thus avoiding legalistic maneuvers by nations of the UN) by usually referring to them as “security contractors”, who insist that they take no active role in military actions, merely defending themselves. It’s a paper-thin dodge, and one no one with any concept of self-decency ever really believed.

As of the beginning of 2022, however, the world’s military calculus has begun to shift once again. With military actions such as the Tigray War and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the return of mass warfare (long thought vanished as a realistic possibility) has returned, with a vengeance.

Massed wars – “main force conflicts”, if one prefers – like these in the modern era are inimical to most flavors of PMCs. Fighting insurgents armed with individual small arms and a few light weapons is one thing – contesting a battlefield against a first-tier military state is another matter, entirely. To borrow the words of author Thomas Ricks, few “contractors” within any PMC has a dog in any fight like that.

While PMC’s will continue to be employed in the short term, it is a virtual certainty that the non-state supported, independent PMC will vanish within ten years.

…Assuming, of course, that Western States can fix their broken military forces.

Let that sink in.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To
RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR UPDATE: Move Along – Nothing To See Here

 

 

 



 

Well, then. The Apocalypse has been rescheduled.

As we reported previously, on June 23, troops of the Wagner “Private Military Company” (PMC) – at the orders of their leader, hot dog vendor-turned mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin – apparently abandoned their positions in southern Ukraine in an apparent mutiny; there were scattered reports of regular Russian Army units engaging in firefights with the mercenary troops, many (if not most) of whom have been recruited directly from prisons.

As the hours wore on, more reports came in: Wagner troops captured the city of Rostov-On-Don, Russia’s primary regional headquarters tactically controlling the ongoing battles in the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donbas; there were reports of army commanders “defecting” to Wagner; there were reports of scattered attacks by the Russian Air Force on columns of Wagner troops advancing north along the M4 highway, eventually reaching the critical junction of the city of Voronezh, in an apparent bid to storm the Russian capital city of Moscow, with attendant reports of loyalist forces frantically fortifying sections of the city, as well as mutinies at some military bases around the capital. Russian leader Vladimir Putin was reported to have fled the capital as did, apparently, many of the business “oligarchs” who control the Russian economy, leading to many Western governments and sophomoric, desperate-for-news pundits to chortle at Putin’s seeming demise…

…And then – it was over.

Late on June 24, the story suddenly flipped: Alexander Lukashenko, long-time dictator of the nation of Belarus and a staunch Putin ally, apparently negotiated an agreement between Putin and Prigozhin that saw the mercenary leader “exiled” to Belarus, in trade for ordering his prison-mercs to reverse course, and return to their original cantonments on the front lines of Southern Ukraine.

The world – and especially Western intelligence services – were dumbfounded…ourselves, included.

After careful analysis, the staff at FreedomistMIA has reached a general conclusion as to what we think has happened.

As we remarked in our article from June 23, our second point of analysis was the possibility that Prigozhin had actually launched his “putsch” at the direct order of Putin, in a bid to strengthen Putin’s position inside Russia. While we considered this to be unlikely at that time, that is what now seems to be the case.

At issue, firstly, was Prigozhin’s demonstrated fanatical loyalty to Putin (who had made Prigozhin his personal chef at one point, and then made him the head of the already-established Wagner PMC). Second, were Prigozhin’s, frankly bizarre and inconsistent (bordering on the incoherent) statements on various social media platforms, ranting (not too strong of a term) about the Russian Ministry of Defence not simply hamstringing his forces by deliberately denying them supplies and other critical combat support, but of actively bombarding them, in their forward bases, killing large numbers of the mercenaries…none of which made any sense, at all.

In response, Putin addressed the Russian nation and the world early on the 24th (US time), calling Prigozhin and any Wagner troops supporting him rebels and traitors, and calling on the Wagner mercenaries to detain Prigozhin and/or return to the Ukrainian front. Shortly after that address, Lukashenko “brokered” an end to the “fighting”.

So…where does this leave us, as of the afternoon (US time) on June 26?

The putsch is over. Wagner forces are returning to southern Ukraine. Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unclear. What has the result been, overall?

 

  • First, Putin’s hold on power – despite the desperate ravings of certain sections of the popular media – has been greatly strengthened: the abortive putsch saw many anti-Putin oligarchs and lower-level military commanders and officials either ‘sit pat’, or actively try to ingratiate themselves to Prigozhin. Where their loyalties to the Putin regime may have been questionable before the putsch, their stances are now out in the open, for all to see.
  • Second, there has apparently been no significant disruption in the logistical throughput passing through Rostov-On-Don, meaning that the Russian and mercenary forces on that front have suffered no real interruption to the flow of personnel, supplies, or equipment. Likewise, tactically speaking, there has been no opportunity for Ukraine to exploit “disruptions” in Russian ranks.
  • Third, is the interplay between Russia, Belarus and Wagner. With Prigozhin “exiled” to Belarus – to date, a ‘silent partner’ to Russia, allowing significant Russian forces to be based in their country – there is the significant possibility that Progozhin will take many of his Wagner troops with him (the idea of Russia allowing all Wagner troops to go to Belarus is a non-starter, as the mercenaries are too vital as shock troops). Those troops, likely under a different corporate name, would both strengthen the Russian units now in Belarus, while also providing vital training services for Belarusian forces, who have no combat experience to speak of. This could be enhanced, due to reports during the “not-a-putsch”, of Wagner units opening prisons, arming the freed inmates and adding them to their forces, something Wagner has done in the past, with official sanction. Where Wagner was suspected to have fielded approximately 50,000 troops worldwide, with some 25,000 fighting in Ukraine, that figure may have been significantly increased.

 

Overall, it would appear that Putin has staged a solid deception operation that has measurably strengthened his power base, added forces to his army prosecuting his war in Ukraine, and greatly shored up a close ally, an ally which may well need a “loyal” force of battle-hardened mercenaries to secure his regime, as Lukashenko is reportedly in ill health.

As a result, the world collectively has a lot of egg on its face, to Putin’s benefit.

And that, as it lowers the Western public’s opinions of their governments and news media in general, bodes ill.

 

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To
AN UNHINGED REVOLUTION – Russia On The Brink Of Civil War

 

 

 



 

SUMMARY – On June 23, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a petty criminal-turned-hot dog vendor-turned-restaurateur-turned mercenary warlord led his mercenary army, the infamous “Wagner Group”, in what he describes as a “March of Justice” against the Russian Defense Ministry, accusing that governmental body of launching deliberate attacks on his troops in order to destroy his army. As of the dawn of June 24, Prigozhin’s forces have captured the major city and vital command and logistics hub of Rostov-On-Don, securing the city center, as well as the main regional military headquarters. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has vowed to crush the Wagner mutiny in a public address on the morning of June 24. These actions have dire implications for the world. This is a developing situation.

 

The Current Situation – The Wagner PMC has been the core of Russia’s recent battles in Ukraine, acting as elite shock troops in brutal battles throughout the region, particularly in Bakhmut, at the end of May. The mercenary army has been in action around the world, primarily in Africa (in Chad, Libya and Sudan) and the Middle East, earning a reputation for combat effectiveness, corruption and brutality.

Over the last few months, however, the 62-year old Prigozhin has been increasingly seen as unstable, making increasingly angry and bizarre claims that the Russian Ministry of Defence has been deliberately attacking his forces, claims that the Ministry has vehemently denied. It is these attacks that appear to be the linchpin behind the crisis.

 

The “Long March” Begins – On June 23rd, Wagner troops variously either left their positions to follow Prigozhin in his march to Rostov-On-Don, or turned and fired on regular Russian Army troops. This has completely disrupted Russian operations in Ukraine. Additionally, Western intelligence services have been caught flat-footed, not remotely suspecting Prigozhin’s actions, indicating that Prigozhin may not have been suborned.

As of the morning of June 24th, Wagner forces have been reported in the city of Voronezh, an approximate 6-hour drive from Moscow. In Moscow itself, loyalist troops and armored vehicles have been deployed into the city itself to protect the Kremlin and various areas where the oligarchs supporting the Putin regime live. There are also reports of scattered fighting and other potential mutinies at various bases around Moscow.

The danger, and the reason this action by Prigozhin is so dangerous, is that the vast bulk of Russia’s regular army is physically inside Ukraine at this time, meaning that there are very few forces between Prigozhin and Moscow who are either willing or capable of standing up to Wagner’s battle-hardened troops in any kind of fight.

 

 

Predictive Analysis

 

The Bad…Good and Ugly Being Irrelevant – Information on the situation remains highly fluid and uncertain, but some analysis is possible.

To begin, Prigozhin’s actions are frankly bizarre. “Friendly Fire” incidents happen in war, often frequently. Even in extreme cases, these kinds of incidents are no reason for a mutiny that can only be seen as not simply irrelevant, but highly damaging to an active war effort.

What is currently unknown – and is a decisive factor – is whether or not the flow of supplies through Rostov-On-Don has been disrupted or not.

This leads to three possibilities, none of them good:

 

  1. Prigozhin may have been “turned”, or “suborned”, by a foreign intelligence agency to strike out against Putin’s government. It is hard to understand why Prigozhin would agree to do such a thing, as he owes everything good that has happened in his life in the last thirty-odd years to Vladimir Putin, personally. And, while not having any real, professional military training, Prigozhin must certainly understand the impact his actions will have on the Russian war effort against Ukraine. The fact that Ukraine itself does not seem to be taking advantage of this disruption immediately, would tend to indicate that they had no knowledge of Prigozhin’s actions beforehand. This is backed up by anonymous sources within the Western intelligence communities, who have confirmed that no one knew or suspected the mercenary chief’s actions until he struck out on his suicide charge.

 

  1. Conversely, swinging into pure speculation-mode, Prigozhin may be tilting at this particular windmill at the direct order of Putin, himself, in an old-school-Hollywood bit of skullduggery, taking a radical action that would allow Putin to declare martial law, and make a clean sweep of the Russian oligarchs (most of whom, like Putin, are former KGB officers) standing in his way from a return to Stalinist-style policies of control, effectively creating a kind of “Soviet Union, 2.0”, with Putin as absolute and unchallenged ruler. In this scenario, Prigozhin could be “tried for treason” and “sentenced to prison”, and then retired to a nice country home in Siberia, far away from cameras and reporters. While certainly requiring some extensive mental gymnastics, this is not outside the realm of possibility.

 

  1. Lastly, there is the most frightening possibility: That Prigozhin has actually become unhinged, and truly believes that his actions of the last forty-eight hours are perfectly justified. If this is the case, all bets are off, because Putin has been facing a quietly increasing rise of resistance from the oligarchs he relies on to retain power. This could lead to an all-out Civil War in Russia, a nuclear-armed superpower with a nuclear arsenal comparable to that of the United States, with the potential for unauthorized uses of nuclear weapons. Peripheral to this, is the possibility that, should Ukraine “steal a march” on Russia, and make a sudden spate of critical gains, the Russian military command could panic, and use tactical nuclear weapons to attack Ukraine’s Main Supply Routes (MSR’s) to hold their advance amid the confusion. Such an action would cause a panic in both the European Union and in NATO…and no one knows what will happen after that.

 

 

Conclusion – Yevgeny Prigozhin’s actions are unprecedented in the modern day. Nothing like this has been seen on so critical a geopolitical scale since the Russian Revolution of 1917. While pithy remarks about Machiavelli being right on mercenaries might be true, they are also largely irrelevant to the current situation.

By his actions, whatever their rationale might be, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenary army have placed the world in significant danger of all-out war, on a scale never before seen.

The FreedomistMIA is keeping a close watch on this situation at press time, and will update this story for our readers as the situation develops.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Staying FREE From The Totalitarianism of the Modern Trans Ideology

THE TRANS IDEOLOGY IS PURE EVIL, most serious observant Christians will agree. So then, what is our response?

People who identify as trans are no more evil than any of us without Jesus, and these human beings are not our enemy. The enemy is Satan, but even at that, we can recognize a coherent ideology, fruiting out as trans-genderism and trans-humanism, that is pure evil and that will destroy our entire civilization.

But what is the proper response to this hideous, Satanic assault aimed at making us all mindless slaves of a reprobate ruling class and erasing humanity itself? The response is to unilaterally adopt and build the genesis structures of a NEW Christian civilizational paradigm! The ideals of such a new civilization will empower and enable people to break free, maintain their Christian way of life in peace and abundance, and flourish even as society around them turns totalitarian, becomes poor, and experiences deadly upheavals almost constantly.

The trans ideology is really the justification and facilitation of the suicidal erasure of the human race. It is nothing less than that. To be clear, the trans ideology, whether it is radical and authoritarian trans-genderism or trans-humanism, represents a suicidal and totalitarian departure from the laws of nature that are rooted in the laws of God. It is the ultimate nadir of human culture and reveals how depraved, lost, and frankly unhinged our ruling class have become who push this evil.

The invasion of people who are males BY NATURE AND BY GOD’S LAWS into women’s spaces, violating their modesty, safety, and privacy, is abhorrent. This is unsettling to actual women who are being erased (e.g., “What is a woman?” has no answer from these idiots). But it is a far deeper problem even than that, which is severe enough. When trans-genderism is pared with its even more evil twin, trans-humanism, it represents the fatal decline of every civilization infected by it.

All things “trans” (in terms of this alt-gendered and anti-human anticulture ideology, while not calling people evil) are reprehensible and dangerous to a healthy life and society. We must destroy this trans ideology, or it will cause hundreds of thousands to millions of DEATHS and destroy our entire civilization. Everything you love and have worked for will be consumed and burned up by this wicked authoritarian movement.

Trans ideology = slavery and death to America. Whether it is the ideology that says a “trans woman” (natural man as Created by God) is in fact a real woman or the trans-humanism movement that ultimately adores AI and seeks the end of biological humans, the concept of “trans” from what God made you to anything other than that is wickedness. This is especially true of its authoritarian elements which begin with a demand for tolerance, then a demand for acceptance which leads to a demand for celebration at all times, and which then leads to a demand to force this evil ideology on to your kids, and, ultimately, which leads to a social credit system that pressures you to prove your acceptance by participating.

Just wait until you are forced by trans-humanists to “download” a map of your mind and let them install your memories into a machine which then replaces you, because it is cheaper to run a machine than to feed you! Once you accept trans-genderism and let them have your children to corrupt and indoctrinate, the table is set for the other shoe to drop: trans-humanism. You will be forced to accept the erasure of humans just as you accept the erasure of women. This is the true trans agenda, as envisioned by the evil ruling class: the erasure of humans.

All of this trans-gender and trans-human ideology in its authoritarian bent is dangerous to freedom and safety within a society that has already mostly lost its social fabric and modesty and made itself morally and spiritually unstable and weak! Essentially, every major world civilization, starting with Western Civilization, that has adopted this trans ideology, beginning with trans-genderism as the gateway ideology, is commiting suicide.

Unless you are not dependent upon the ruling class and their corrupted institutions and structures for sustenance, you are doomed to experience that destruction in your life. Breaking free from the people who run every major institution in this country according to ideologies we can only describe as doctrines of devils is one of the key radical imperatives of the hour.

It should be noted that a small isolated intentional community or collaborative association of fellow Christians lacks the scale and depth to withstand the onslaught that will be directed at them to force them to comply. Our problem is civilizational in scale, and our response must be civilizational in scale.

Trans ideology will ultimately run and then ruin the entirety of Western Civilization, especially America, and any other civilization, culture, society, country, or national people group who adopt its wicked ideas in any form. You have to decide for yourself and your family: ruin or liberation.

You will either be stuck in the flow of and dependency toward a dying civilization or you will decide to run with and adopt a new civilizational paradigm that will make you bulletproof against the many machinations of our corrupt ruling class. Anything less than the latter choice equals making the former choice, even if you do so by passive default without knowing it.

An individual who wishes to transition and assume the miene of a female is perfectly within their human agency, though in the eyes of God, unless this person is a born hermaphrodite, they have no “right” to demand God’s or anyone’s approval of their rebellion against the Creator’s laws! The issue is not trans people, which is people who identify as such and use their human agency to portray themselves as another gender, the issue is the ideology which also seeks forced “celebration” thereof on pain of some form of “consequences.”

While it is not at all our intent or aim to proscribe human agency, even to choose to adopt being trans this or that, it is not our intent to elevate that to some sort of right which everyone else must show deference to through forced acceptance. In short, human agency isn’t a right to disobey God, it just means that God judges and punishes in totality whereas we in our magisterial powers as ordained by God are limited as to what aspects of our human agency the state itself can proscribe. Hence, we aren’t seeking laws against people being trans.

When that womanface clown dude Dylan Mulvany threatens to sue anyone who doesn’t use his assumed gender, e.g. taking on the miene of a little girl who acts in the worst stereotypes of being a female, you can see how this is not merely a personal choice but an authoritarian ideology that is actually coming for YOU! Unless you are willing to engage in sex acts with a “trans” this or that, you will find that in time, especially in public schools, you and your children will become socially shunned pariahs constantly harassed and abused for your unwillingness to bow to their altrainbow pantheon.

This is us or them. This is freedom or slavery. This is either we become trans enthusiasts and betray God and His laws or we become a prey to angry woke cancel culture mobs bent on our destruction while we are physically powerless to resist their assaults on our rights, our property, and our persons. Unless you are sustained in your necessities by means not controlled by or connected to the structures that are run by our wicked ruling class, your protesting against all this will avail you no good: you can’t letter write or vote your way out of this, you must REMOVE your life’s sustenance in all aspects, as much and as soon as possible, from all dependency on this present system.

Mutual self-reliance and self-determination among fellow travelers is essential. You must unify with people who reject any notion society ought to ignore and not be governed by God’s laws. You must resort to the painful and difficult work of intentionlly restoring the social fabric in your life, relationships, and associations.

You must PREFER those of the same ilk as you. You must be deliberate about building and preserving community, extended family, the nuclear family, and marriage between one man and one woman as a mystical bond of oneness not available any other way between any two humans, solely on the basis of God’s laws.

In short, we must create a new form of shared identity at scale, called “nationhood”, that reflects God’s laws and righteous standards for the nations, by which we might reconstitute the social fabric and essentially give rise to the emergence of a new Christian civilization. Ultimately we must create a new nationhood, a spiritual nation based on God’s laws and ways.

The personal impact is felt as this nationhood allows us to facilitate connections and collaboration at the local level. As people gather and work together using this nationhood as a sociocultural and socioeconomic foundation, the social fabric is made unassailable. By this means we can build strong marriages in union with Christ, strong nuclear and extended families, and strong self-contained and self-sufficient intentional communities that may be distributed or clustered together in one habitation.

What we are saying is that the solution is not to reform the existing civilization and its political sociocultural, socioeconomic, civil, civic, or even religious institutions and structures ruled by a few evil scoundrels who view the entirety of the population outside themselves as cattle to be used and consumed. The solution is internal, peaceful, but very real economic, social, civil, civic, and cultural separation and independency to wit we build the rudiments of a new Christian civilization in our own lives, relationships, associations, and communities on our own terms, per our own beliefs, and for our own well-being and mutual benefit.

The baby steps we take today become the seedlings from whence future generations will find a strong, towering tree that offers sustenance and safety from the raging storms created by the forced adoption of this trans ideology by most people. Society and civilization itself will endure massive, deadly upheavals and ruination while those who today chose the path of a new Christian civilizational paradigm will remain mostly unaffected and free.

Trans ideology is the death of culture, of civilization, of society, and every country under its thrall. We cannot stop this civilization from falling for the lie, because essentially our civilization has run its course, become old and decadent, as well as senile, and cannot be saved. It must be avoided, separated from, and replaced in your own life and relationships with a new civilizational paradigm in keeping with our Christian ideals and faith.

Outside The Box: DIY Navies?

 

 



 

In previous articles, we have touched on the ideas for building “DIY” ground- and air-combat forces. Today, we will take a look at the naval aspect of this idea.

Water-based travel is not new. In fact, for the majority of human history, travel further than 100 miles in any direction was usually faster, cheaper and safer than overland travel, even if wide detours were necessary. Without getting into the physics of fluid dynamics, movement is a lot easier when nature is helping you along, especially when friction resistance is determined more by shape than by weight. It was not until the advent of railroads in the early 19th Century that land travel became faster and comparatively safer than travel by water.

 

River Landscape with Man in Rowing Boat and Tree-Lined Shore. Johannes Hermanus Koekkoek (1778–1851). 1800-1850. Public Domain.

 

However, when looking at the military dimensions of water travel, while there were early examples of purpose-built warships, such as the Greek and Roman “triremes”, the vast majority of ships were perfectly suitable for both military and commercial use. Mostly, this consisted for transporting troops, animals, equipment and other supplies. Because of the ships’ designs of these eras, most vessels were also capable of going fairly far upriver; this was the main tactic of Viking raiders, from the 8th-11th Centuries, whose “Karvis”, “Snekkjas” and “Drakkars” drew as little as 30in/762mm in draft.

 

Gokstad Ship, late 9th Century, Viking Ship Museum, Oslo. CCA/2.0 Generic.

 

As previously noted, however, after about 1860, a dramatic divergence began to open between purely military and purely civilian merchant vessels. Without restating those points here, by the end of World War 2, it seemed that the divide was complete and unbridgeable: “Warships” fought in wars, and civilian vessels supported the warships, while remaining mostly unarmed.

But, there lurked an exception: the PT Boat.

 

Patrol Torpedo Boat (PT) 658 transits past U.S. Navy ships at the Portland Rose Festival. US Navy photo. Public Domain.

 

Developed just as WW2 was starting, the “Patrol Torpedo Boat” quickly became famous as the heavily armed war vessel of WW2, on a weapon-to-tonnage basis. Not much larger than most commercial yachts, the PT’s were fully capable of sinking full-size warships – as long as their torpedoes worked. If there weren’t enough enemy warships around to sink, the PT’s could easily remove their torpedoes, and bolt on heavier cannons to destroy lightly armored barges and lighters, as well as extra machine guns, turning them into floating anti-aircraft batteries.

While the US Navy seemed to have forgotten the lessons of PT Boat warfare after the end of the war, that turned out to not be the case. While light-armed craft more or less vanished from the Navy’s inventory after WW2, that was due to the savage budget cuts and vicious organizational fights of the post-war years, more than because the Navy didn’t want the boats. Indeed, the Navy had to burn significant political clout just to help prevent the Marine Corps from being disbanded by an Army and Air Force that were battling for scarce funding.

As soon as the Vietnam War began to heat up, it was discovered that North Vietnam was supplying the Viet Cong and its own troops in the South by smuggling arms and supplies down the coast in civilian sampans. The solution to this were the “Swift Boats” – small, high-speed, aluminum-hulled boats, heavily armed with machine guns. With very shallow drafts, these fast craft were able to chase down almost any watercraft, and usually outgunned whatever they could catch. As well, they could land small parties of US and Vietnamese Marines or SEALs deep in enemy territory, doing great damage to areas the enemy had thought to be relatively safe.

 

Fast Patrol Craft (PCF, Swift boat) during riverine operation in Vietnam. US Navy photo. Public Domian.

 

After the war in Vietnam ended, the US Navy once again had to struggle for funding, and small combat craft went onto the back burner. But not completely. As funding improved in the 1980’s small combat craft came back to prominence, leading to the expansion of the Special Warfare Combatant-craft Crewmen (SWCC) career field in the Navy, and the development of the SOC-R. NATO partners took note, at least to some extent.

And all seemed rosy.

But – what about smaller groups? What about “guerrillas at sea”?

Like naval warfare and transport in general, small craft-based warfare is not new. In the modern era, say from 1800 to today, military raids against pirates operating from swampland bases with open canoes and boats was far more common than fighting large ships, à la Hollywood pirate films. Indeed, in World War 1, the “Battle for Lake Tanganyika” was fought and decided by a handful of small boats that barely qualified as life rafts; the largest vessel, the SMS Graf von Goetzen, was barely 235ft long; that’s short for a warship.

 

German steamship Goetzen before its warship conversion in 1915. Public Domain.

 

Likewise, Filipino guerrillas fighting the Japanese in their archipelago after Japan’s conquest of the island group in early-1942 made good use of small-boat smuggling tactics to make amphibious raids throughout the islands for three years, until the war ended. The Philippine government continued this successful strategy in the Huk Rebellion that followed the war, and both government and anti-government forces continue to use boats for the same purposes to this day.

But the real advent of modern guerrilla small craft warfare begins (as do many things in this realm) with the LTTE – the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

Starting from essentially scratch in 1976, the LTTE quickly showed – much as the Islamic State would do, decades later – that all that was required for an insurgency to grow exponentially, was intelligent, cunning and quick-witted leadership…Even if they end up using straight-out terror tactics.

In its 25-year history, the LTTE’s “Sea Tigers”, with no more than 3,000 personnel at any given time, not only fought the Sri Lankan Navy to a standstill, sinking nearly 30 vessels, while also conducting amphibious raids, it conducted widespread “strategic support operations”, until the Sri Lankan military got serious, got its collective act together, and ground the LTTE down by mid-2009.

 

Slovenian fast patrol boat HPL-21 Ankaran (Super Dvora MK II class), 2009, of a type used by the Sri Lankan Navy. CCA-3.0

 

But – what about other groups?

While the LTTE managed to create a ferociously effective “commando navy,” the “Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps”, has taken the direction of using masses of small “Boghammer”-type speedboats. Based on a design from the Swedish company Boghammar Marin AB developed in the 1980’s, the modern “Boghammer” has taken on the moniker to describe any improvised naval fighting vessel.

 

A speed boat (used in a terror attack attempt on 5 May 1990) in the Clandestine Immigration and Naval Museum, Haifa, Israel. CCA/3.0

 

As used by the IRGC-N, the Boghammer is armed with a variety of weapons, including RPG-7 type rocket launchers, as many as three 12.7mm heavy machine guns, recoilless rifles and 107mm multiple rocket launchers based on the Type 63 MRL. And these craft do pose a threat to major-nation warships, when used in swarms. After nearly ten years of study, it remains a problem that major-state navies – including those of the United States and Great Britain – don’t talk about in public.

That’s all well and good…but, what about “modern guerrillas”? The above examples, including the LTTE, were all either formally organized navies, or were at least funded on a regular basis. What about a small guerrilla force? What can they do on the water?

Quite a bit, actually.

While large, ocean going vessels are going to be mostly out of a small group’s reach, at least initially, acquiring civilian pleasure craft (through theft or “under the table” deals) that can be modified to carry weapons is not at all difficult. While craft as large as Boghammers are uncommon, they are not so unusual that they would be noticed.

There is, however, another class of vessel normally associated with major states that most people would not associated with guerrilla warfare: long-range submersibles – i.e., submarines…Specifically, drug-running “narco-subs”.

 

Narco-submarine captured by the Peruvian Navy in December 2019. Ministerio de Defensa del Perú. CCA/2.0.

 

While “combat submersibles” in the modern era begin with David Bushnell’s Turtle in 1775-1776, submarines have only played a pivotal role in naval warfare since WW1, and the first “Battle of the Atlantic”. Submarines have always been complicated and dangerous craft – there is always a solid chance that something will go catastrophically wrong while submerged. Survival rates when things like that happen at sea are never good.

Submarines are also expensive, in the extreme. As a result, few people imagine a threadbare guerrilla army being able to operate something as technically complex and ridiculously expensive as a submarine. Sure, there are “vanity” submarines out there, used to excursions by cash-rich vacationers, but surely no one is actually building submarines intended for combat.

Established navies, however, beg to differ – which is why they are spending significant amounts of money designing advanced harbor-protection systems…specifically to counter small combat submarines.

But, for our purposes, narco-subs are not that. Narco-subs are generally thought of as “semi-submersible”, in that they cannot “deep dive,” like a conventional submarine. Instead, they are designed to run at or just below the surface. And these craft are not small – narco-subs with cargo capacities of up to 17,000lbs have been captured. That’s a significant capacity for a “guerrilla shipyard”.

And, as hard as the militaries of North and South America try, they cannot catch them all; at best, one in ten are estimated to be intercepted. Worse, the drug subs are being much more sophisticated, diving deeper, becoming less detectable, carrying more, and extending their range, with some now being able to cross the Atlantic, to bring drugs into the waters of Spain and Portugal.

This is a serious concern, and not from the narcotics angle. While infiltrating “operators” into a nation (even the United States) is relatively easy, importing weapons and explosives is not. And 10-17,000lbs of weapons, ammunition and explosives at a time provides significant capacity for an attacker.

Indeed, since 2000, abandoned narco-subs – true deep-diving models – have been discovered in South America that have cargo capacities in the range of 20,000lbs or more, and with ranges of c.3,700km, more than enough to reach New Orleans from most of the South American Caribbean coast.

 

A fully-operational submarine built for the primary purpose of transporting multi-ton quantities of cocaine located near a tributary close to the Ecuador/Colombia border that was seized by the Ecuador Anti-Narcotics Police Forces and Ecuador Military authorities with the assistance of the DEA in 2010. Public Domain.

 

Making matters much worse, these craft are very difficult to detect at sea, because their hulls are made mostly of fiberglass and Kevlar; are painted sea-blue; and vent their engine exhaust along the bottom of their hulls before releasing it to the atmosphere, cooling it to the point of being indistinguishable from the surrounding water. Coupled to them running just below – or well under – the surface, this makes them virtually invisible to radar and sonar. In fact, the vast majority of the narco-subs captured were spotted by aircraft, running on the surface.

So – why is this important? It’s “just” drugs, right?

Well, “cargo” covers a very broad scope. Narco-subs don’t have to carry drugs, after all. Coupled to this, is the fact the fact that the South American and Mexican cartels operate these subs in alliance with guerrilla groups such as the FARC, among others. It requires no great leap of imagination to picture a scenario of a group like Revolutionary Iran or the I.S. infiltrating two- to four-hundred trigger-pullers into the US, hidden among the masses of illegal immigrants being allowed into the country by a criminally – if not deliberately – incompetent political establishment so arrogant, that they believe that the Rules of War do not apply to them.

Why is the author so vehement about this?

In 1974, R&D Associates – a think tank in Santa Monica, California – working under contract for the Department of Defense, produced a document titled A Soviet Paramilitary Attack on U.S. Nuclear Forces – A Concept (PDF link). The paper sketched out a threat concept to US strategic nuclear forces, wherein Soviet Spetznatz special forces could potentially infiltrate sabotage teams into the US to attack ICBM, bomber and nuclear submarine bases, simply by walking in over the borders from Mexico and/or Canada. It goes into detail of then-current estimated numbers of illegal aliens crossing the US border, who were not intercepted by the Border Patrol, and pointed out that enough four- to six-man teams could be infiltrated and housed by ‘illegal’ KGB agents just long enough to sabotage US nuclear forces in preparation for a Soviet first strike.

Very James Bond, yes?

This paper remained classified until 1995.

 

ISIS fighters execute Taliban fighter In the city of Jalalabad, December 2021. CCA/4.0

 

A threat – a clear and present one – exists against the United States, and its citizens. While some would argue that this author is “letting the cat out of the bag” by speculating on this in public, none of the information in this article is classified; there is no “whistle-blower” information here. If this author can find it, anyone can. You, the Reader, simply aren’t being told any of this. I will let you speculate as to why that is the case. The author, here alone, is unable to take corrective measures against this threat – it is the job of the Reader to do so.

All I can do, is warn you.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Biden’s Failure & Ghosts of Mumbai

 

 

 



With all the recent talk of nuclear war, catastrophic shortages of vital fuels, Europe in complete economic meltdown and Communist China’s stock markets tanking as a dictator is “reelected“, a person could be forgiven for thinking that “The End” really might be nigh. However, there is one thing that most people have forgotten about in all the tumult…and Joe Biden’s Democrat Party is directly responsible for it:

Terrorism inside the United States.

Now, again, the Reader could be forgiven for thinking that this is hyperbole, or some desperate attempt at cashing in on some “counter terrorism” degree, but no – this is quite serious. There is a clear and present terrorist threat to the home territories of the United States, one that was set up (whether by intent or incompetence is irrelevant, now) by the Democrat Party, and that has been exacerbated and accelerated by the Biden Administration since January of 2021. What is the source of this, you might ask?

Illegal immigration.

I can hear the groans in the back rows, already…You would do well to keep reading.

Back in the “good old days,” illegal immigration was tolerated by both parties, because it scored points for the Democrats with the Hispanic Community, and it provided a source of cheap labor for agribusiness and later, for construction, making certain GOP interests happy. While there were occasional scandals, followed by roundups by “La Migra”, it was still tolerated, even though it was beginning to erode the viability of “entry-level” work in the United States.

Over time, however, the Democrats began to change the game: it was no longer about simply scoring fractional points with minority communities, but about actually using illegal aliens as “straw voters”, who could be shuttled to polling stations, posing as dead people to vote…for a certain party, of course. Like most things, it didn’t start out big, but it began to grow unchecked, in the late-1990’s. After 9/11 there was some concern about terrorists infiltrating over the border, but since nothing happened, the Democrats quickly spun the notion as unhinged paranoia, that verged on racism. Meanwhile, the economy – for many reasons – continued to sag.

In the chaos of 2016-2022, however, illegal immigration began to skyrocket out of control, as the US descended into a low-key civil war. Inside the US Government, loyalists of President Donald J. Trump and bureaucrats trying to simply do their jobs, attempted to carry out the directives of the President, as they are legally obligated to do, while others actively worked to undermine the President, sometimes verging close to sedition, if not treason. While the Trump Administration accomplished many things, those within the government structure who decided that their personal political beliefs were more important than their oaths deliberately hindered many more. Dangerously, this rose to the point of Democrat loyalists declining to comment on open support for waves of illegal immigration openly being supported by the United Nations, even given the extreme dangers faced by migrants, themselves, on the journey north

Once President Trump’s reelection bid failed – again, whether legitimately or by malfeasance no longer matters – and Joe Biden entered office, the proverbial floodgates were opened: the numbers of illegal aliens being detained by the Border Patrol are the highest ever recorded in the 97 year history of the agency, with nearly 2 million being reported by the agency in the first nine months of the Biden presidency. As of the end of October 2022, the cross-border flood continues.

While this is clearly a massive problem on many levels, for security professionals, this is particularly worrying, because a very large percentage of the border-crossers fall into the dangerous category of “military-age males”, or, those males between the late-teens and mid-30’s, who are suitable for military service. Further, increasing numbers of border crossers are from African countries.

Why is this important?

Simply put, while the mainstream media decided that terrorism was passé, the actual terror groups out there have very much ignored that pronouncement. As well, while many people, and especially many in the under-30 year old demographic within the United States, have been fed a steady media diet of the concept that “terrorist” equates only to “Middle Easterners” and “straight, white males,” the truth is that many of the radical Islamist groups since 2000 have recruited far and wide, and are just as diverse as either the US military – or the Leftist protestors of North America and Europe who lack the education or worldly experience to understand what is happening.

So – is this just hysterical paranoia? After all, there have been no major terror attacks inside the United States since 9/11, right? (We’re not going to talk about Las Vegas today, because you’re not ready for that conversation.) So why marginalize ‘migrants’?

Because, as the second President Bush said: They hate us. And they will not stop.

Assuming – for the sake of argument, to placate the naysayers – that the last sentence is true, how does that relate to immigration/migration?

In 1974, R&D Associates – a think tank in Santa Monica, California – working under contract for the Department of Defense, produced a document titled A Soviet Paramilitary Attack on U.S. Nuclear Forces – A Concept (PDF link). The paper sketched out a threat concept to US strategic nuclear forces, wherein Soviet Spetznatz special forces could potentially infiltrate sabotage teams into the US to attack ICBM, bomber and nuclear submarine bases, simply by walking in over the borders from Mexico and/or Canada. It goes into detail of then-current estimated numbers of illegal aliens crossing the US border, who were not intercepted by the Border Patrol, and pointed out that enough four- to six-man teams could be infiltrated and housed by ‘illegalKGB agents just long enough to sabotage US nuclear forces in preparation for a Soviet first strike.

Very James Bond, yes?

This paper remained classified until 1995.

Fast forward to 2008, in Mumbai, India

A group of about ten terrorists (it may have been a smaller team) slipped into the seaside megacity, and launched a brutal assault on the city’s tourist district, killing at least 166, and wounding over 300 over the course of a 3-day battle, doggedly holding out against elite Indian Army commando forces and troops from the crack Jat Regiment to the bitter end.

Those are the facts that most people who know anything at all about this incident know.

Much less well known, is how the terrorists got to Mumbai.

The terrorists were given advanced military training by elements of the Pakistani army and intelligence services, including boat training. The terrorist team headed out into the Indian Ocean on November 21, 2008, and motored along for two days, until they hijacked the Indian fishing trawler Kuber, killed four of the crew, and forced the captain to sail for Mumbai. Arriving off Mumbai at dusk on November 26, the terrorists dropped anchor, killed the captain, and headed into Mumbai Harbor in three inflatable boats. Shortly after, the terrorists begin attacking civilians, and took up positions in various locations.
And, to top it all off, the terrorists were in constant communication – via cell phone – with an internet-capable “tactical operations center” (TOC) that had been set up on the fly in an apartment in Pakistan.

Very James Bond, yes?

So, how do illegal immigration, a moldy study from the 1970’s, and a terrorist attack in 2008 track with each other?

Mumbai was not a “hardened” target; quite the opposite – it was a treasure trove of “soft” targets: train stations, hotels, nightclubs, hospitals and a religious school.

Just like American cities.

For a well-financed terror group, slipping 200 to 300 ‘actors’ into the United States by simply hiking over the border is not a difficult challenge. Potentially, they could slip in as a single group. It’s not as if anyone would notice, amid the throngs moving over the border. Arming them? Also not hard – they don’t need to actually try and purchase weapons legally; AKM’s and M16 and M4 carbines abandoned in Afghanistan are light enough to fit into a backpack, and making homemade hand grenades can be done by a simple shopping trip to a hardware store (no, we will not discuss “how to”).

And all of this, if before we start talking about attacks on the power grid, as winter arrives.

Now, am I implying that the Democrat Party set this up deliberately? Certainly not – I don’t think they are smart enough, to be perfectly frank. I am, however, absolutely certain that there are plenty of terror groups out there who are smart enough to figure this out. Nothing talked about above is “classified”, and really doesn’t take much to figure out.

Security professionals – the real ones – rarely sleep well, knowing that these threats are out there…much less, when they know that significant elements in Washington, DC are actively creating the permissive environment necessary for all of this to happen.

Stock up now. Arm up now. Talk to your neighbors now. If you don’t – you will be very much on your own.

Good luck.

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

As The World Burns…

 

 

As any sane person in the world nervously watches the continuous back-and-forth between Russia and the West over Ukraine, wondering if they are going to see mushroom clouds start sprouting over their cities, Emperor Joe and his deranged courtiers are doing their absolute best attempt at impersonating Emperor Nero (or, perhaps, Elagabalus). With the potential of World War 3 looming (not that the dissolute Imperial Swamp Court believes that it could really happen, so why not play with nuclear toys?), the Imperial Court (I could call them the “Legion of Doom,” but they’re not cool enough) have decided that they need to continue the geopolitical game – the one they should have been paying more attention to, that is – by plotting to be invited to invade, of ALL places…Haiti.

…What?

Oh, yes. Haiti.

Haiti has long been ranked as one of the poorest nations in the world. With a low-end economy based on minuscule agricultural and mining sectors, the country’s only real manufacturing sector involves pennies-on-the dollar clothing manufacture; in fact, the country’s only real claim to economic fame, is that it supplies around half of the world’s supply of “vetier oil” (an essential oil used in high-end perfumes). Otherwise, the country is, almost literally, a “banana republic.” As a result, Haiti can’t even capitalize on a tourism industry, although it is well-suited to one, since most vacationers dislike chilling on the beach while the country literally disintegrates around them.

 

Royal Decameron Indigo Beach Resort & Spa, Cote des Arcadins, Haiti, 2015.

The main reason for this disintegration, is the political instability that followed the demise of the Duvalier dynasty in 1986. After “Baby Doc” was forced to flee the country, Haiti tried to recover from the depredations of that regime, but it suffered from continual economic decline, political instability, repeated coups d’état, and a wave of major earthquakes.

Which brings us to Jovenel Moïse.

 

Haitian President Jovenel Moïse, 2019. US Dept. of State photo.

Elected to the Presidency of Haiti in early 2017, Moïse had started out as a local businessman. His ideas earned him the attention of a center-right political policy, that would catapult him into the Presidency of the island nation. Despite accusations of a corrupted election, Moïse did make notable progress in developing both infrastructure projects, as well as launching new initiatives to expand Haiti’s agricultural sector, by improving rice production.

However, continued controversy over when Moïse’s actual term of office was supposed to end continued to simmer. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, a group of what can only be described as “hitmen” stormed Moïse’s residence in the early morning hours of 7 July 2021. Like many rulers in the world, Moïse’s residence had little real security; in fact, only six police officers were present that night – two were active informants to the attackers and the other four did their best to do nothing at all.

What followed could be favorably described as a “Keystone Kops” caper, had no one actually died. The survivors of the 26 actual attackers would later claim that they had been hired – via WhatsApp, of all things – to be security for Moïse…who were then informed that the mission was actually to kidnap the president, although several of them apparently knew well in advance that the real plan was to assassinate him. Video and audio evidence showed the attackers shouting via a bullhorn that the operation was a US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) operation, which at least help to momentarily confuse Haitian authorities.

 

Port Au Prince, Haiti, 2012

There followed a wild chase through the capital of Port-au-Prince, as police and civilians tried to hunt down the suspects who were now fleeing in panic, as it seems that no one had thought through what might happen afterwards. Eleven of the suspects broke into the Embassy of Taiwan, apparently seeking sanctuary, but were promptly arrested after Taiwan waived the embassy’s extraterritoriality  status to allow the attacker’s arrest.

Bookmark that last – we’ll come back to it.

The subsequent investigation revealed a tangled web of conspirators, spanning Haitians, Americans, Colombians, among others, who seemingly accreted out of thin air, on a jumble of ideas about what kind of operation they were running: Were they seizing power in a coup? Were they launching a revolution? Were they arresting the president? Were they simply hitmen? The answer to all of these questions, at one point or another, was “Yes”. In this regard, the planning and execution of this operation make 2020’s “Operation Gideon” look like D-Day.

 

Venezuelan authorities detaining Operación Gedeón militants, 2020. Venezuelan Government photo.

As a result, Haiti began to spiral out of control. That descent continues a year later, as certain parties are now calling for international – and specifically American – intervention…Which is odd, given Haiti’s history of intervention with the United States…Doubly so, when the United States is currently “eyeball to eyeball” with Russia, in an international confrontation that is more serious than anything since the early 1980’s.

So — why Haiti? Why the push for intervention? Haiti’s politics aside, who would be behind such an attack? There are only three real possibilities:

  1. Christian Emmanuel Sanon, an over-60 year old Haitian-American doctor from South Florida, who was identified as a possible front-man for the operation.
  2. The US government of Joe Biden.
  3. The government of Communist China.

The first case, of the 60-something doctor, is more than a little bizarre. An operation like this requires a lot of money, and the rewards need to balance out the risks. While it has never been illegal (mostly) for Americans to travel to a foreign country to fight in a war, it has always been illegal to plan and conduct such operations from within US borders. As in, serious and very real jail time to those involved. In this regard, it is not really credible to assume that this came solely out of a Florida office complex.

The second case is more interesting, but verges into “4-D Chess“. It is barely – just barely – possible that Joe Biden’s administration may have set up a deliberately bungled operation to send Haiti over the edge. Why? Because that would please the Communist Party of China, who were very upset about the strengthening ties between its claimed ‘province’ of Taiwan and Haiti, while giving the US an excuse to play the White Knight, riding to Haiti’s rescue, yet again.

On Communist China’s part, they could have easily concocted the same plot, for mostly the same reasons, and ran such an operation with the help of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro’s intelligence services, who were actually embedded into the aforementioned “Operation Gideon” from basically the start. For Communist China, implying tacit Taiwanese support to the operation (recall some of the plotters fleeing to the Taiwan embassy compound) could give Taiwan a black eye, locally inside Haiti. On Maduro’s part, getting the United States to launch another intervention into a Caribbean nation would be a spectacular win, that he can make hay from for the next decade or so, while burnishing his image with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, of general purposes.

My own assessment? The sordid affair is most likely a combination of #2 and #3, because of the confused nature of planning, and the byzantine levels of actors involved. The US has to maintain the image of being in control of its own back yard, and with fires burning all around it, Imperial Joe’s Court of Jesters needs to distract its populace from evermore ridiculous gaffe’s and disasters…

…Until, of course, scary noises and bright lights commence.

Which, naturally, does nothing for the long-suffering people of Haiti.

 

Next Moves In Ukraine September 10, 2022

TLDR: Russia has not “collapsed”, as some say, and the old nasty Bear may still have some very unpleasant surprises. The Ukes’ offensive against the Orcs has been brilliant and not unexpected, but this is far from over.

The Orcs could husband air power for a massive wave of attacks, over 200 sorties, aimed at the Ukes’ command and control centers and supply hubs. The Orcs could marshal forces into Byelorus and debauch upon the Ukes from the north. Other surprises we cannot even foresee are equally possible. The Ukes no doubt also understand this and don’t seem to underestimate their terrible foe.

It is expected the Ukes will attack from Oleksandrivka, east of Kherson, down the T1505 road and the E97 highway to Antonivka and then toward the neck of the Crimean Peninsula, bypassing the Orcs in Kherson, and cutting off Crimea. This would end all southern resupply to Russian forces in the southern coastal region.

The Ukrainian offensive in the east and the strangulation of Russian forces in the Kherson Oblast are taking the Kremlin by surprise and jeopardizing their attested goals, which include essentially the dismemberment of Ukraine as a contiguous country.

Russian forces under Vladimir Putin include ethnic Russians who betrayed Ukraine, the Bagner Group and other mercenaries, as well as their own armed forces. These forces have been suffering a series of setbacks as their front lines are pierced. The Ukrainian blitz operations in and around the Kharkiv to Izium sectors have resulted in what some call a collapse but others claim to be a hasty tactical withdrawal. The point is that vital territory for the Russian war machine’s operations has been lost and dramatically so. This is not a collapse.

Meanwhile, in the Kherson Oblast Ukrainian forces announced well in advance their intentions to attack. That offensive is going slower going, however the supply situation is concerning for the Russians. It begins to appear the Ukes, our shorthand for Ukrainians, are conducting an aerial encirclement aimed at turning the Russian, hereafter Orcs for shorthand, occupied areas into a massive killing zone.

The Orcs cannot leave the area on account of the loss of vital bridges across the Dnieper but they cannot get substantial resupply either. The Ukes evidently pushed slow but steady. The Orcs sent in massive reinforcements. Perhaps 25,000 troops are now in a cauldron of constant air and artillery fire and who cannot attack nor be moved.

This may seem to have been a feint. It is reasonable to predict the true target remains an axis running from Kherson down to the neck of the Crimean Peninsula. The goal is to cut off the Orcs in the southeastern coastal zones of Ukraine from Crimea and to close on the massive Russian bridge at the Kerch strait. No doubt the aim will be to destroy that bridge and essentially bleed the Orcs on the peninsula while further isolating those on the southeastern shore, including Mariopol.

While gains in the east are desired, the true target is Crimea.

I would expect the Ukes will have a day to three more days to run wild in the east before the Orcs stop them and attempt counter offensives. This likely to be done in the Donbas and Luhansk regions both for tactical and face-saving reasons. The Kremlin could risk losing control of the narrative internally, desperate measures will take place, and they will probably push back or gain ground.

The Russian high command has not shown they have more than a one-dimensional view. This means they are reactionary and are likely to shift focus to the Donbass and Luhansk, per their own statements, and assume the Kherson attack was an elaborate feint.

This doesn’t mean the attack in the east, which was a surprise, is itself a feint, some sort of 4d chess. The Ukes saw an opportunity and were able to move forces quickly, but they remain focused on Crimea because unlike all other areas, if Russia loses Crimea the prestige loss at home will become critical and force Putin to the table.

Will Russia mobilize?

The problem is that the Russia of today is not the Russia of the past. Russian mobilization could add a million men on paper, but their ability to supply them is simply not there. An open question at to whether this would tip public support away from the war remains, but the likelihood of this producing unrest is very low.

Putin is a true believer and this war is not over. Battles lost do not mean a war is lost. There are many possibilities for Russia to find new and unexpected angles of attack that would turn things around for them. The Russians could do the same thing and husband forces for their own surprise attack out of Belorus, for instance, or mass an air war that sends in hundreds of daily sorties per day.

The Russian Bear is dangerous, but he is definitely bleeding and limping, and that is most worrisome, however the Ukes seem to understand this about the Orcs.

Update September 11, 2022- It appears the Ukes are now entering Lysichansk and Sverodonetsk which took the Russians months to take from them.

Economic Parallels Between The Roman Republic And Modern America

The Roman Republic fell when 1/3 of the revenues were being paid into the welfare state. The Roman Republic collapsed from within, not due to external forces. You can only rob Peter to pay Paul for so long without fresh tax-payer revenue coming in to keep the system afloat.

Let’s consider the reality of the United States by looking at the Federal Budget. If Rome fell when 33% of revenues were going into the welfare system, and the whole economy collapsed under that weight, it would be fair to say that America is less than that as we have not collapsed. Look at the numbers, and we will see:

In fiscal year 2020, look at the mandatory programs:

• Social Security: $1.092T
• Medicare: $694B
• Medicaid: $447B
• Other Mandatory Programs: $743B

Official Federal Budget
Official Federal Budget

Those total $2.975 trillion. The receipts category (total revenue) equals $3.706 trillion. That’s 80.3% of all Federal tax revenue that goes out towards entitlements like Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, WIC, and other programs.

Social Security technically is not an entitlement, as we pay into it our entire life in exchange for a retirement years income stream, but it cannot be taken away easily. Therefore, like all other entitlements, they become sticky.

The Roman Empire collapsed under 33% of revenue going towards entitlement programs. In 2020/21 the United States was at 80.3%. This is unsustainable.

Add to this the net interest on the national debt, which at around 2.0% interest on a 30-year bond is a whopping $376 Billion. At the lowest interest rates in the history of America, the net interest plus entitlement payments equal 90.4% of all US federal tax revenue. The eerie implications of the massive amount of unsustainable debt are devastating in impact on small interest rate moves.

Consider what the Net interest on $27 trillion of federal debt will be when interest rates are the following:

• 4% = $752 billion
• 6% = $1.128 trillion
• 8% = $1.504 trillion

When interest rates reach 3%, then net interest plus entitlements equal 100% of the entire federal tax revenue. Interest rates are cyclical and throughout history move from high to low or low to high around every 28 years. Interest rates in 1983 were 18% of a 30 year bond.

U.S. Interest Rates 171 Years
U.S. Interest Rates 171 Years

The interest rate cycle is at the end of its downward trend and can only go up from here. Sadly, state pension funds are not the only things facing insolvency. So is America. Consider the official Federal Budget that shows the massive number of expenditures as a percentage of revenue that entitlements and mandatory payments occupy.

Unfortunately, America is poised for default or is setting the state for a hyper-inflationary phase in the economy that will erode the wealth, standard-of-living, and livelihood of all Americans.

Analysis: Tools of the Trade – The Return of Industrial Warfare


Originally, this article was going to be considerably different, until research suddenly swerved in a different direction. That direction is to reinforce a fundamental military truth:

Artillery was, is, remains and will remain, the “King of Battle.”

The original concept for this article was an examination of towed 120mm mortar systems, specifically as used by the United States Marine Corps. However, the Marine Corps has divested itself of the M327 “Expeditionary Fire Support System” (EFSS) 120mm Towed Mortar, in favor of the UVision HERO-120 ‘Loitering Munition’.

While retaining the “Dragon Fire II” vehicle-mounted 120mm mortar, the reading on the rationale behind these decisions stands testament to an unacceptable failure by the military establishment in the United States to focus on reality.

Since combat operations commenced in Afghanistan in 2001, the US military in general has drilled down to a focus almost exclusively on “counterinsurgency operations” (COIN). Although pointedly left unsaid in public, this is a reaction to the fact that the US military establishment essentially abandoned COIN operations in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, to focus exclusively on the perceived threat of a Soviet invasion to Western Europe, and the assumed nuclear exchanges that would follow. In the aftermath of the 9/11 Attacks and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan deteriorating into guerilla conflicts, the US military swung the pendulum 180° in the opposite direction from the 1980’s.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Francis Fukuyama foolishly proclaiming the “End of History”, although rarely spoken out loud, military forces were seen as almost redundant anachronisms in many quarters, and should be reduced both in scale and capabilities, rendering them as something like heavily-armed police forces, with the occasional, movie-ready SWAT teams for hostage rescue. Combat operations like the first Persian Gulf War and Operation Iraqi Freedom were seen as aberrations, large operations against technologically inferior despot forces with lots of heavy (if antiquated) weapons and gear, and lots of troops, who – if not very well-trained or motivated – at least had plenty of simple weapons, and who would require somewhat more force than the international equivalent of a beat cop holding up their hand and saying “HALT!” in a loud voice.

Enter Russia.

While we are not going to delve too deeply, here, into the politics of this year’s Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia is currently – by their own counts (which should, of course, always be taken with a large grain of salt) – running an average of c.580 fire missions per day. Assuming that these missions are run according to Russian military doctrine, each of these missions are a “battery shoot” involving a battery of four to six weapons. Roughly 30% of these would be rocket artillery, mostly from BM-21 ‘Grad’ type rocket systems, with the remainder fired by conventional “tube” artillery [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artillery]. Using the most conservatively realistic figures, this equals approximately 7,000 conventional artillery rounds being fired.

Per day.

This come out to over 200,000 rounds in a 30-day period.

In contrast, the Western democracies have “bet the farm” on weapon accuracy, developing “precision everything” in mortar, rocket and conventional artillery rounds. They chose this route, because the conventional news media is ecstatic over images of dead civilians, which is much more likely when using “dumb” weapons. Needless to say, such casualty-limiting precision comes at a price: the M982 “Excalibur” 155mm precision-guided artillery round costs anywhere from US$68,000 to $175,000 per round (depending on who is counting).

In the West, conventional “dumb” artillery rounds cost between US$300 and $1,000 each. This, of course, begs the question: is “smart” better than “dumb“?

Certainly – if you can afford it. Can the West?

Currently, following the defense budget cuts in FY2022 by the Biden administration, artillery ammunition procurement is being cut by some 36%. In the very best case scenario, this means that the United States currently produces enough ammunition in a calendar year for anywhere between ten days and three weeks of combat firing, based – again – on the most conservative take on Russian claims of artillery fire missions and estimated rates of ammunition expenditure in Ukraine. And the United States is sending ammunition to Ukraine to go along with the 155mm howitzers and other weapons we are already supplying.

And the US is not alone. In 2021, the British Army conducted a large-scale, “main force” wargame where they completely exhausted national stocks of critical ammunition – at the national level – in eight days. Similarly, only about 2,100 units of the vaunted Javelin missile are produced each year – and the Ukrainians are claiming to fire “hundreds” of Javelins daily, leaving the US defense industry scrambling to bring new production streams online. The FIM-92 Stinger anti-aircraft missile is in a similar situation.

Worse still, Russia is known to have fired over 1,000 “cruise missiles” since invading the Ukraine proper in February of 2022. Even given the highly questionable reports of those firings’ performance, it is clear that the Russian industrial base is still more than capable of supplying the weapons and ammunition to the firing lines (the logistical aspects of this are an entirely different subjects).

In contrast, the US currently purchases 110 Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) for the MLRS and HIMARS systems, 500 AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) and 60 venerable BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually for FY2022, meaning that in six months, Russia has fired more than the US’s total production of similar systems.

It is vital to keep in mind, again, that the technical accuracy and reliability of the Russian arsenal is not the question, here. The fact is that they are able to maintain production and consumption rates of comparatively “dumb” systems – and firing something at the enemy is better than firing nothing, because you’re waiting on resupply.

The conclusion here is clear: the West is functionally trying to counter Russian aggression from a hospital bed, while ignorant children are playing with its life support equipment.

This is not 1939, and the West is no longer the “Arsenal of Democracy.” Ukraine is paying, and will continue to pay, a heavy price for trusting the modern-day Western states…and unless something is done quickly, the people of the West may well pay that price, as well – assuming that we do not pay an even heavier price.

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

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