The September 26th election in Germany is likely to see a coalition of Die Linke (old line communists), the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats, and the Greens, driving Germany into a far left authoritarianism not seen since the days of the DDR. The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are down to 21%, with the mushy Free Democrats at 12% and the AFD at 11% and holding. An SD, Green, Linke, and FDP coalition led by the Social Democrats would possibly emerge with over 61% of the vote. But without the FDP a minority coalition would be required.
The loss of CDU/CSU support has mostly been a failure of leadership, driven in part by the migration crisis and the Covid-19 response.
But this scenario isn’t set in stone as the Germans now have a voting system that gives both a primary and a secondary vote which could make calculations based on polls alone more difficult. A leftward, authoritarianism, which the Greens and Die Linke would necessitate in order to join the coalition, could have a major negative impact on the German economy and German foreign policy.
With an underfunded military focused more on gender issues and the whole rainbow agenda, as opposed to warfighting, such a coalition would continue to denominate the armed forces, thus rendering Germany dependent upon the US for its security.
The AFD has failed to seize the advantage caused by recent downturns and failures or to capitalize on growing German anger at the establishment over things like the floods, Covid-19, and migration worries. Poor leadership, messaging, and marketing have contributed to this.