RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR UPDATE: Move Along – Nothing To See Here

Michael Cessna June 26, 2023

Well, then. The Apocalypse has been rescheduled.

As we reported previously, on June 23, troops of the Wagner “Private Military Company” (PMC) – at the orders of their leader, hot dog vendor-turned mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin – apparently abandoned their positions in southern Ukraine in an apparent mutiny; there were scattered reports of regular Russian Army units engaging in firefights with the mercenary troops, many (if not most) of whom have been recruited directly from prisons.

As the hours wore on, more reports came in: Wagner troops captured the city of Rostov-On-Don, Russia’s primary regional headquarters tactically controlling the ongoing battles in the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donbas; there were reports of army commanders “defecting” to Wagner; there were reports of scattered attacks by the Russian Air Force on columns of Wagner troops advancing north along the M4 highway, eventually reaching the critical junction of the city of Voronezh, in an apparent bid to storm the Russian capital city of Moscow, with attendant reports of loyalist forces frantically fortifying sections of the city, as well as mutinies at some military bases around the capital. Russian leader Vladimir Putin was reported to have fled the capital as did, apparently, many of the business “oligarchs” who control the Russian economy, leading to many Western governments and sophomoric, desperate-for-news pundits to chortle at Putin’s seeming demise…

…And then – it was over.

Late on June 24, the story suddenly flipped: Alexander Lukashenko, long-time dictator of the nation of Belarus and a staunch Putin ally, apparently negotiated an agreement between Putin and Prigozhin that saw the mercenary leader “exiled” to Belarus, in trade for ordering his prison-mercs to reverse course, and return to their original cantonments on the front lines of Southern Ukraine.

The world – and especially Western intelligence services – were dumbfounded…ourselves, included.

After careful analysis, the staff at FreedomistMIA has reached a general conclusion as to what we think has happened.

As we remarked in our article from June 23, our second point of analysis was the possibility that Prigozhin had actually launched his “putsch” at the direct order of Putin, in a bid to strengthen Putin’s position inside Russia. While we considered this to be unlikely at that time, that is what now seems to be the case.

At issue, firstly, was Prigozhin’s demonstrated fanatical loyalty to Putin (who had made Prigozhin his personal chef at one point, and then made him the head of the already-established Wagner PMC). Second, were Prigozhin’s, frankly bizarre and inconsistent (bordering on the incoherent) statements on various social media platforms, ranting (not too strong of a term) about the Russian Ministry of Defence not simply hamstringing his forces by deliberately denying them supplies and other critical combat support, but of actively bombarding them, in their forward bases, killing large numbers of the mercenaries…none of which made any sense, at all.

In response, Putin addressed the Russian nation and the world early on the 24^th (US time), calling Prigozhin and any Wagner troops supporting him rebels and traitors, and calling on the Wagner mercenaries to detain Prigozhin and/or return to the Ukrainian front. Shortly after that address, Lukashenko “brokered” an end to the “fighting”.

So…where does this leave us, as of the afternoon (US time) on June 26?

The putsch is over. Wagner forces are returning to southern Ukraine. Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unclear. What has the result been, overall?

First, Putin’s hold on power – despite the desperate ravings of certain sections of the popular media – has been greatly strengthened: the abortive putsch saw many anti-Putin oligarchs and lower-level military commanders and officials either ‘sit pat’, or actively try to ingratiate themselves to Prigozhin. Where their loyalties to the Putin regime may have been questionable before the putsch, their stances are now out in the open, for all to see.
Second, there has apparently been no significant disruption in the logistical throughput passing through Rostov-On-Don, meaning that the Russian and mercenary forces on that front have suffered no real interruption to the flow of personnel, supplies, or equipment. Likewise, tactically speaking, there has been no opportunity for Ukraine to exploit “disruptions” in Russian ranks.
Third, is the interplay between Russia, Belarus and Wagner. With Prigozhin “exiled” to Belarus – to date, a ‘silent partner’ to Russia, allowing significant Russian forces to be based in their country – there is the significant possibility that Progozhin will take many of his Wagner troops with him (the idea of Russia allowing all Wagner troops to go to Belarus is a non-starter, as the mercenaries are too vital as shock troops). Those troops, likely under a different corporate name, would both strengthen the Russian units now in Belarus, while also providing vital training services for Belarusian forces, who have no combat experience to speak of. This could be enhanced, due to reports during the “not-a-putsch”, of Wagner units opening prisons, arming the freed inmates and adding them to their forces, something Wagner has done in the past, with official sanction. Where Wagner was suspected to have fielded approximately 50,000 troops worldwide, with some 25,000 fighting in Ukraine, that figure may have been significantly increased.

Overall, it would appear that Putin has staged a solid deception operation that has measurably strengthened his power base, added forces to his army prosecuting his war in Ukraine, and greatly shored up a close ally, an ally which may well need a “loyal” force of battle-hardened mercenaries to secure his regime, as Lukashenko is reportedly in ill health.

As a result, the world collectively has a lot of egg on its face, to Putin’s benefit.

And that, as it lowers the Western public’s opinions of their governments and news media in general, bodes ill.

*The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To*

AN UNHINGED REVOLUTION – Russia On The Brink Of Civil War

Michael Cessna June 24, 2023

SUMMARY – On June 23, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a petty criminal-turned-hot dog vendor-turned-restaurateur-turned mercenary warlord led his mercenary army, the infamous “Wagner Group”, in what he describes as a “March of Justice” against the Russian Defense Ministry, accusing that governmental body of launching deliberate attacks on his troops in order to destroy his army. As of the dawn of June 24, Prigozhin’s forces have captured the major city and vital command and logistics hub of Rostov-On-Don, securing the city center, as well as the main regional military headquarters. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has vowed to crush the Wagner mutiny in a public address on the morning of June 24. These actions have dire implications for the world. This is a developing situation.

The Current Situation – The Wagner PMC has been the core of Russia’s recent battles in Ukraine, acting as elite shock troops in brutal battles throughout the region, particularly in Bakhmut, at the end of May. The mercenary army has been in action around the world, primarily in Africa (in Chad, Libya and Sudan) and the Middle East, earning a reputation for combat effectiveness, corruption and brutality.

Over the last few months, however, the 62-year old Prigozhin has been increasingly seen as unstable, making increasingly angry and bizarre claims that the Russian Ministry of Defence has been deliberately attacking his forces, claims that the Ministry has vehemently denied. It is these attacks that appear to be the linchpin behind the crisis.

The “Long March” Begins – On June 23^rd, Wagner troops variously either left their positions to follow Prigozhin in his march to Rostov-On-Don, or turned and fired on regular Russian Army troops. This has completely disrupted Russian operations in Ukraine. Additionally, Western intelligence services have been caught flat-footed, not remotely suspecting Prigozhin’s actions, indicating that Prigozhin may not have been suborned.

As of the morning of June 24^th, Wagner forces have been reported in the city of Voronezh, an approximate 6-hour drive from Moscow. In Moscow itself, loyalist troops and armored vehicles have been deployed into the city itself to protect the Kremlin and various areas where the oligarchs supporting the Putin regime live. There are also reports of scattered fighting and other potential mutinies at various bases around Moscow.

The danger, and the reason this action by Prigozhin is so dangerous, is that the vast bulk of Russia’s regular army is physically inside Ukraine at this time, meaning that there are very few forces between Prigozhin and Moscow who are either willing or capable of standing up to Wagner’s battle-hardened troops in any kind of fight.

Predictive Analysis

The Bad…Good and Ugly Being Irrelevant – Information on the situation remains highly fluid and uncertain, but some analysis is possible.

To begin, Prigozhin’s actions are frankly bizarre. “Friendly Fire” incidents happen in war, often frequently. Even in extreme cases, these kinds of incidents are no reason for a mutiny that can only be seen as not simply irrelevant, but highly damaging to an active war effort.

What is currently unknown – and is a decisive factor – is whether or not the flow of supplies through Rostov-On-Don has been disrupted or not.

This leads to three possibilities, none of them good:

Prigozhin may have been “turned”, or “suborned”, by a foreign intelligence agency to strike out against Putin’s government. It is hard to understand why Prigozhin would agree to do such a thing, as he owes everything good that has happened in his life in the last thirty-odd years to Vladimir Putin, personally. And, while not having any real, professional military training, Prigozhin must certainly understand the impact his actions will have on the Russian war effort against Ukraine. The fact that Ukraine itself does not seem to be taking advantage of this disruption immediately, would tend to indicate that they had no knowledge of Prigozhin’s actions beforehand. This is backed up by anonymous sources within the Western intelligence communities, who have confirmed that no one knew or suspected the mercenary chief’s actions until he struck out on his suicide charge.

Conversely, swinging into pure speculation-mode, Prigozhin may be tilting at this particular windmill at the direct order of Putin, himself, in an old-school-Hollywood bit of skullduggery, taking a radical action that would allow Putin to declare martial law, and make a clean sweep of the Russian oligarchs (most of whom, like Putin, are former KGB officers) standing in his way from a return to Stalinist-style policies of control, effectively creating a kind of “Soviet Union, 2.0”, with Putin as absolute and unchallenged ruler. In this scenario, Prigozhin could be “tried for treason” and “sentenced to prison”, and then retired to a nice country home in Siberia, far away from cameras and reporters. While certainly requiring some extensive mental gymnastics, this is not outside the realm of possibility.

Lastly, there is the most frightening possibility: That Prigozhin has actually become unhinged, and truly believes that his actions of the last forty-eight hours are perfectly justified. If this is the case, all bets are off, because Putin has been facing a quietly increasing rise of resistance from the oligarchs he relies on to retain power. This could lead to an all-out Civil War in Russia, a nuclear-armed superpower with a nuclear arsenal comparable to that of the United States, with the potential for unauthorized uses of nuclear weapons. Peripheral to this, is the possibility that, should Ukraine “steal a march” on Russia, and make a sudden spate of critical gains, the Russian military command could panic, and use tactical nuclear weapons to attack Ukraine’s Main Supply Routes (MSR’s) to hold their advance amid the confusion. Such an action would cause a panic in both the European Union and in NATO…and no one knows what will happen after that.

Conclusion – Yevgeny Prigozhin’s actions are unprecedented in the modern day. Nothing like this has been seen on so critical a geopolitical scale since the Russian Revolution of 1917. While pithy remarks about Machiavelli being right on mercenaries might be true, they are also largely irrelevant to the current situation.

By his actions, whatever their rationale might be, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenary army have placed the world in significant danger of all-out war, on a scale never before seen.

The FreedomistMIA is keeping a close watch on this situation at press time, and will update this story for our readers as the situation develops.

Ireland Plans Bovine Genocide in Fear of Sun

Freedomist Editor June 14, 2023

Ireland hopes a wholesale slaughter of its cattle will somehow save the planet from man-made climate change. The country plans on killing more than 200,000 cattle that are not to be replaced in an effort to cut down on greenhouse gases produces by the flatulating animals.

The move is sure not to have disastrous “unintended” consequences that will trickle down to the small farmer first and the working class person second. The reduction in Ireland’s cattle will also be less taxing on other lands that will no longer have to grow the rich grains these cows are normally fed.

Ireland currently exports 90 percent of its dairy and beef production, meaning the reduction in cattle will reduce in significant losses of revenue gained from exports.

The Next Carrier War…The Ghost of the Atlantic Conveyor

Michael Cessna June 2, 2023

We would like to express our thanks to naval OSINT analyst H I Sutton, of Covert Shores, for his kind assistance with this article.

Illness is an odd thing. One rarely pays close attention to outside events unless those events have a direct and immediate impact on the ill person. In the case of your humble author, 2022 was a rough year. As a result, I completely missed this article when it came out, and didn’t think clearly about the implications of using larger vessels in a DIY Navy when that article was written.

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa…Consider this to be Part 2.

For small national navies, as well as “guerrilla” navies, Part 1 is still absolutely true: limited funds and resources limit options when building a naval force of any kind. However, for the nation-state that is in the “middle sea” [sic], so to speak, those have more options.

As described in a previous article, a nation desiring to construct a navy needs to first decide on exactly what kind of navy they need – not want, but need. To briefly recap, there are three basic choices: Blue, Green & Brown:

A “blue” navy is basically the kind of navy used by the United States, Great Britain, and France, the kind of navy that Communist China aspires to: a naval force to maintain the “Sea Lanes of Communications” (the SLOC). This is the hardest kind of fleet to build, and far and away the most expensive.
A “green” navy is mostly a coastal force, whose main job is to facilitate amphibious operations, i.e., landing troops ashore. Still expensive, but the better choice for nations like the Republic of the Philippines.
A “brown” navy operates almost solely along rivers and close in to coastlines. These naval forces are comparatively cheap, but are very limited in range and capabilities, compared to the other two types of fleet.

Obviously, there is a good deal of overlap between the various types: brown and green navies complement each other well, where their environments meet. Likewise, green and blue navies can have a very great deal of overlap when projecting state power at a long distance. While there is little overlap between blue and brown fleets, blue water units can benefit from the lightweight/high-speed boats of the brown squadrons.

Iran, however, has taken the path of outside-the-box thinking to a different level.

Beginning in 2021, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commissioned the building of at least two “drone carriers,” former “Panamax” [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panamax] box-carriers [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Container_ship] refitted to operate combat and surveillance drone aircraft, “Shahid Mahdavi” and “Shahid Bagheri”. In form, the two ships initially looked like their recent sister ship, the “forward base ship” “Makran”.

*IRGC ship ‘Madahvi’ at dockside. Photo credit: H. I. Sutton, Covert Shores*

IRGC ship “Bagheri” in shipyard near Bandar Abbas, 2022. Photo credit: **H. I. Sutton, Covert Shores**

Unlike Makran, however, Mahdavi and Bagheri are apparently focused solely on drone craft operations. The Bagheri is being fitted with an overhanging deck extension on their port (left) side. While visually similar to US Navy carriers of the last c.65 years, this seems to have been designed in order to launch and recover heavier drone craft on an angle, from port to starboard, due to the container ships’ superstructure at the aft (rear) end, which cannot be easily modified. This seems to be confirmed, as Iranian state news is showing pictures of a “ski jump” being installed on the Bagheri. The “ski jump” flight deck has been used to aid in flight operations since at least the 1970’s, when the UK’s Royal Navy used them for their “Harrier carriers”, HMS Hermes and HMS Invincible, during the Falkland Islands War of 1982.

IRGC ship “Bagheri” under construction in shipyard near Bandar Abbas, 2022, showing angled flight deck. Diagonal arrows show the non-standard flight deck. Photo credit: **H. I. Sutton, Covert Shores**

IRGC ship “Bagheri” under construction in shipyard near Bandar Abbas, c.early-2023, showing the ‘ski jump’ nearing completion on the flight deck. Photo credit: **H. I. Sutton, Covert Shores**

*Harrier Jump Jet, Farnborough Air Show 2014 by Christine Matthews. CCA/2.0*

This modification opens the possibility of launching much heavier drone craft, capable of carrying much heavier ordnance than other drones. While certainly incapable of handling heavier, manned craft, this bodes ill for anyone Iran chooses to focus on.

*Bayraktar TB2 on the runway. Credit: Bayhaluk, 2014. CCA/4.0/Int’l.*

There has not been a direct, “force on force”, aircraft carrier battle since WW2; the aforementioned Falklands campaign nearly resulted in one, but that turned out to be a false start. While there have been thousands – if not tens of thousands – of carrier-launched fighters and bombers attacking land targets and land-based aircraft, these were not “carrier” battles, in the naval sense. The concern, here, the nightmare of rational naval planners since the 1970’s, has been the “improvised aircraft carrier.” The naval dimension of the Falklands War, once again, informs on the problem.

When Argentina invaded the Falklands, Great Britain immediately assembled an amphibious task force for “Operation Corporate”. Like most post-WW2 navies, Great Britain had comparatively few naval supply and support ships in its fleet, and had to resort to “STUFT” (Ships Taken Up From Trade), civilian vessels requisitioned into military service as auxiliary vessels to carry supplies, and occasionally troops.

One of these vessels was the SS Atlantic Conveyor.

*SS Atlantic Conveyor, approaching the Falklands. About 19 May 1982. Photo: DM Gerard. CCA/2.5*

A combination roll-on/roll-off container ship, Atlantic Conveyor was used primarily to ferry aircraft for the British invasion force. When the vessel arrived in the combat area, the Harrier ‘jump jets’ she carried were launched from her, and flown off to the aircraft carries. On May 25^th 1983, during the ferocious air attacks by Argentine air forces during the Battle of San Carlos, Atlantic Conveyor was struck by two Exocet anti-ship missiles, killing twelve of her crew, including her captain; gutted by fires, the ship sank three days later, while under tow, joining several other vessels in becoming the first Royal Navy vessels lost in action since World War 2. The loss of all of the remaining aircraft aboard (all of them helicopters) would severely hamper British operations ashore for the remainder of the campaign.

But note the first part of that story: Atlantic Conveyor was able to at least launch manned fighter jets while underway. What the Royal Navy – long starved for funding for ships and manpower (HMS Hermes was scheduled for decommissioning – without a replacement – when the invasion happened) had built a “jack carrier”, effectively equivalent to a WW2 “escort carrier”, at very short notice, with the potential – had she not been destroyed – of being able to conduct combat operations at some level.

This capability had been recognized with helicopters for many years, but this was the first time it had been proven valid for manned combat jet aircraft. Although conjectural, this is likely the real reason why the US and UK defense establishments buried the Harrier’s proposed follow-on aircraft, the supersonic version of the Hawker Siddeley P.1154, cancelled in 1965. No serious attempt was made to perfect a supersonic-capable VTOL until the introduction of the F-35B by the United States in 2015. As there are few carriers in the world capable of operating conventional jet aircraft, this ensured the naval dominance of those states that possessed these massive and expensive weapons.

*F-35B Lightning taking off from a ski-jump, from HMS Queen Elizabeth, 2020. Photo: LPhot Luke/MOD. UK/OGL v1.0*

Now, however, we find ourselves in the 21^st Century, and technology has significantly progressed, across the board. Long-range drone craft, capable of carrying heavy ordnance, and armed – presumably – with anti-ship missiles and capable air- and anti-ship missile defenses, have now changed the structure of naval “battle calculus.” This is because the world’s second- and third-line military forces have relearned the fundamental truth of national military strength: it doesn’t matter how strong a nation’s military is overall, but how much of that force can be brought to bear against a particular target.

Iran’s naval deployment of ersatz carriers may seem laughable to many in first-line forces, but no one in second- or third-line navies are laughing. Iran has demonstrated that they are perfectly capable of worldwide naval cruises and deployments, and while their carriers and other vessels almost certainly stand no chance against a US or UK task force, they are more than a match for most of the other navies in the world. This is especially true for their “forward base ship” concepts, which are capable of deploying commando units via helicopter and speedboat, in a manner similar to first-line navies.

The deployment of these three vessels, the Makrun, Mahdavi and Bagheri, marks the first time since 1976 (in the days of the Imperial Navy of Iran) that Iran has had a truly capable naval arm for its military forces. Given the country’s friendly relations with Russia and Communist China, the possibility of joint fleet operations with at least China, if not Russia, along with their recent truce – brokered by the PRC – with Saudi Arabia, means than Iran can easily conduct far more complicated and wide-ranging power projection operations than they were able to in the past.

Much more worryingly, these ship commissioning’s are being done in public, and there are plenty of nations in the world at Iran’s tier who can take inspiration to boost their own naval capabilities.

The foundations of the world economy are set on the concept of the “freedom of the seas”, a concept enforced since World War 2 by the United States, Great Britain and France…but all three states are in financial trouble, and their navies are down to razor-thin numbers, in both ships and sailors. It will take careful, resolute and competent leadership to navigate through this.

The question is: is that leadership in place? Or even on the horizon?

Erdogan Wins Close Run-Off Election

Freedomist Editor May 29, 2023

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been declared the winner of a run-off election over the opposition party candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The final vote tally puts Erdogan at 52.14% over Kilicdaroglu at 47.86%, which mirrors the point difference between the two rivals during the general election when Erdogan failed to meet the 50 plus percent threshold.

Erdogan said of the win, “We are not the only winners, the winner is Turkey. The winner is all parts of our society, our democracy is the winner.”

His opponent said of the election that it was the “most unfair election period in our history.” One of the most obvious impediments to challenging Erdogan came from the passage of a new law criminalizing the spreading of “false information.” Using this law, Erdogan’s administration convinced Twitter to censor and/or remove opposition accounts and tweets, including Kilcdaroglu’s account.

The win by Erdogan assures Sweden will continue to face stiff opposition from Turkey in its efforts to become a member of NATO.

World SITREP…Conflict Updates

Michael Cessna May 22, 2023

Previously, we reported on two conflicts that exploded into reality in less than a month. Today, we will give a brief update on both conflicts.

SUDAN

As the civil war in Sudan enters its sixth week, the fighting is expanding beyond the capitol city of Khartoum, spilling into war-ravaged Darfur, scene of a decade-long, genocidal ethnic cleansing carried out by the factions now fighting each other.

Although both sides have agreed to a week-long ceasefire, set to begin in about 36 hours as we go to press, there is little movement in meaningful talks between the two sides, the nominal “government forces” of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary “Rapid Support Forces (RSF)” led by strongman Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo.

In the swirling morass that is the politics of the region, one of the looming crises – and possible causes – impacting the fighting is the question of Ethiopia’s massively over-sized hydroelectric dam, that the country is constructing to corral the Blue Nile River, with potentially disastrous ecological ramifications, as well as impacting the availability of water and agriculture downstream, which would impact both the forty-nine million people of Sudan, as well as the more than one-hundred million people of Egypt.

PAKISTAN

Following the shocking arrest of ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan on May 9 2023, and his subsequent release at the order of the nation’s highest court, tensions in the unstable and economically troubled Indian Ocean Region state remain high. Military commanders are still feuding, now over an announcement that those arrested – many arbitrarily – after attacks on military and police offices following Khan’s arrest are to be tried under military law, a fact far more worrying than a simple clash over personal issues, because it remains unclear who is actually in control of the country’s nuclear weapons arsenal.

It remains unclear which direction the current course of events may take, and that is a very worrying situation, especially in concert with events throughout the wider world.

Pakistan In Crisis – A Sudden Upset

Michael Cessna May 12, 2023

“…While economics is a gun, politics is knowing when to pull the trigger…” – Caspian Report

In April of 2022, Imran Khan – the highly popular, 70-year old former international cricket player who had risen to the leadership of Pakistan, a state with one of the largest Muslim populations in the world, on a broadly “Populist” style platform – was removed from office as Prime Minister by a no-confidence vote, the first time such an action had happened in Pakistan’s history.

The no-confidence vote that led to Khan’s removal, on its own, had shady origins, and potential foreign interference. On March 27, 2022, following the first attempt at a no-confidence vote in Parliament had been dismissed, Khan pointedly accused the Biden Administration of interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs, in an affair now known as “Lettergate”, in which Khan stated publicly that he had received a letter via a diplomatic cable from Pakistan’s embassy in the United States, that he claimed threatened “horrific consequences” for Pakistan, if Khan was not removed as Prime Minister; Khan’s government reacted to the cable with a strongly-worded demarche. Khan was blocked from releasing the actual details of the cable in question by Pakistan’s Official Secrets Act of 1923, but stated that he was prepared to show the diplomatic cable to the Chief Justice of Pakistan.

The possible reasons for such interference in Pakistani affairs are not difficult to understand. When Khan became Prime Minister in 2018, he immediately launched a vigorous campaign to start tackling the serious economic issues (YouTube link) Pakistan faced, cutting military spending, forging a realistic payment plan to address the country’s balance of payments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), committing the country to a renewable energy strategy, and then had to navigate the economic disaster brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the same time, however, Khan angered the Biden Administration by steadfastly refusing to distance himself from Russian leader Vladimir Putin, even visiting the Russian Leader in Moscow the day Russia formally invaded Ukraine.

*Vladimir Putin (R) with Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan (L), 24 February, 2022. Photo credit: www.kremlin.ru, CCA/4.0.*

But Khan did not stop there.

After attempting to smooth relations with India, Khan pushed forward with the country’s already strong ties to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which would create an economic transportation corridor (the CPEC) from the nation’s shared border in the Pakistani portion of the disputed Kashmir region, to the Indian Ocean port of Gwadar.

*Gwadar Port, Pakistan. Undated photo. CCA/3.0*

Notably, CPEC was promptly placed on the chopping block by Khan’s replacement as Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, in August of 2022.

For its part, the Biden Administration – reeling from the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August of 2021 – was clearly smarting from its demonstrated weaknesses at all levels of governance, and needed to do something to reinvigorate its failing image. Much like the so-called “Maidan Revolution” of 2014, the removal of Khan from power immediately began to decouple Pakistan from the PRC’s orbit, and threatens the Communist nation’s “Belt & Road Initiative”.

Major General Chris Donahue, commander of the U.S. Army 82nd Airborne Division, XVIII Airborne Corps, boards a C-17 cargo plane at the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, 29 August 2021, becoming the last US soldier to leave Afghanistan. Photo by Jack Holt, US Central Command. Public Domain.

But – for the average American…so what? Why should American’s care about all of this maneuvering in a foreign country many American’s know or care very much about?

The reason the average American needs to pay attention is that the political crisis sparked in Pakistan by Khan’s removal has erupted again, with disastrous results.

Khan – who refused to go away quietly, leading protests in an attempt to hold a special election that would likely return him to power if it were held – appeared at the Islamabad High Court on 9 May 2023 to address corruption charges. After voluntarily appearing at the court, and while being processed, the courthouse was stormed by a unit of the Pakistan Rangers, a Federal paramilitary police force operating under orders from the National Accountability Bureau, who bizarrely arrested Khan, dragging him out of the courthouse, to an undisclosed location.

In the aftermath of this, large and violent protests and rioting erupted across the nation, with angry mobs attempting to storm both regional military headquarters, as well as the local headquarters of the ISI, the Pakistani version of the CIA. Despite calls for direct military force to be used to suppress the rioting, a wide array of military commanders in the nation refused, point-blank, to apply such force. This has led to an alarmingly confusing situation, including the removal of some military commanders.

This has raised alarming concerns as to who is actually in charge of Pakistan’s armed forces, as the raid to arrest Khan seems to have come at the orders of the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, with the support of Prime Minister Sharif. (The position of “Chief of Army Staff” is the Pakistani equivalent to the US Army’s “Chief of Staff” position.)

On 11 May, the Pakistani Supreme Court ruled Khan’s arrest illegal, and ordered his immediate release. As this article goes to press, Khan has been released, and cannot be rearrested on the same charges until at least May 17…

…But, again – why should this matter to Americans?

Simple: Pakistan is not Iraq; nor is it Sudan, Bolivia or Myanmar. Pakistan is different, because Pakistan is a nuclear-armed nation…a nation that shares a land border with another nuclear-armed state, with whom it has already fought several wars. And, although relations had begun to improve while Khan was in office, those have noticeably cooled since his replacement.

Pakistan has had a shaky internal situation for decades, and beginning in 2004, the internal situation deteriorated into an actual insurgency by multiple groups, some focused on religion, like the “Pakistani Taliban”, al-Qaeda and ISIL, but also inflaming and rejuvenating supporters of an independent Balochistan.

With the sudden deterioration of the situation in a nation of nearly 248 million people, some 96.5% of whom are Muslim, the world is now facing the distinct possibility of a multi-sided civil war in a nuclear-armed state, that could lead to the reality of nuclear terrorism, potentially including actual nuclear war, something long believed to have been buried, as many of the factions now swirling in Pakistan would have no issue with loosing nuclear fire onto India, if they were to secure nuclear weapons, which would naturally provoke an immediate response.

While no “smoking gun” evidence has been released that shows conclusive interference by the Biden Administration in Pakistan’s internal affairs, the possibility cannot be dismissed. The Biden Administration has demonstrated absolutely irrational and even self-destructive behavior since assuming power in the United States…and the results of those irrational and self-destructive behaviors are now coming home to roost.

If you’re not worried – you need to catch up.

As The Wheel Turns – Modern Ersatz Armies

Michael Cessna April 28, 2023

Previously here, we have reported on various aspects of warfare, both ancient and modern. The tools change all the time. Sometimes, the specific techniques to employ that technology changes, the better to employ the new sets of hardware that come out of inventor’s workshops and laboratories. But the basic rules, as the saying goes, do not change over time.

The proverbial “rag-tag band of rebels” – or revolutionaries, or guerrillas, as the reader prefers – have been a feature of warfare from the very beginning. In fact, a strong argument could be made that such groups were the very first “fighting forces” to appear on the battlefield; “organization” is the basic requirement for “organized warfare,” and that organization had to start somewhere.

But that is lost in the mists of eons.

Organized warfare, as such, waxes and wanes. The Mediterranean Basin and the European continent – south of the Danube, west of the Rhine, and north of Africa’s Mediterranean coast, and even extending into the Black Sea – was dominated by Rome and its army. This was, for the time, the best organized, regularly supplied and funded army in recorded history; the only real comparisons known are the armies of Sargon the Great and Alexander of Macedon…and yet, Rome “collapsed” (at least in Western Europe) in the 5^th Century; the final destruction of Rome in the east – what is now better known as “Byzantium” – would take another thousand years.

That Rome collapsed (both times) was not the fault of either form of its armies (that’s a long discussion). There were numerous factors involved in both series’ of collapses; in both cases, the ultimate failures of the Roman armies were merely the final acts. Indeed, it is no stretch of the imagination to say that the highly professional, disciplined and minutely organized Roman and Byzantine armies are what kept their respective states alive as long as they did.

Infantry wins wars, and the more professional your infantry, the faster and more decisively you win, all other things being equal. But, continuing with this historical digression, the battle of Adrianople in 378AD ushered in a perception of the superiority of mounted horse cavalry over professional infantry; whatever the actual historical truth of the battle (the arguments of Oman and Burns aside), the perception held true, and those ideas would lead directly to the rise of the mounted knight as the main military component of the medieval period. Horse-using elites were certainly not new, but they were never truly decisive, no matter how diverse the mercantile and military (YouTube link) trade networks were.

*Full-size replica of the Uluburun shipwreck, St. Peter’s castle, Bodrum, Turkey, 2004. Photo credit: Georges Jansoone. CCA/3.0*

In the aftermath of those Roman collapses, warfare reverted to a more localized and tribal form of organization. Even in the Levant, where the First Caliphate and the later Ottoman Sultanate largely ruled from the 7^th Century onwards, government regulation and control were not what they had been under either Roman or Persian rule. Warfare was largely thrown back at least a thousand years, each time.

Technology played a large part in this seesaw. Spears, swords, bows and arrows, and metal armor are all relatively easy for a blacksmith to turn out. As long as armies were small, and some form of “hard tack” (to use the modern term) was set back in a castle of some sort, small armies could maneuver cross-country without too much trouble. Bands of what we would now call “guerrillas” could also maneuver easily, as they generally operated in their native areas, and knew where watering holes and useful resources were located.

The advent of gunpowder changed all of this, however. While developed in Song Dynasty China in the 9^th Century AD (on the European calendar), the first use of the formula as a weapon dates to the early 10^th Century, in use against Mongol tribes. Once gunpowder became dominant as an infantry weapon in Europe, in the late 15^th to the early 16^th centuries, the scales that had been tipping slowly back towards infantry dominance slammed down decisively on the infantry’s side: now, as gunpowder weaponry rapidly progressed from the matchlock through to the flintlock, it became comparatively cheap and easy to recruit and train infantry en masse to a level sufficient to return cavalry to their nominal roles of scouting and decisive shock action.

*Vive l’Empereur!, 1891. Édouard Detaille (1848–1912). Charge of the 4th Hussars at the battle of Friedland, 14 June 1807. Public Domain*

But, that tipping of the scales had consequences, as gunmaking was a very specialized skill, as its requirements were very different from making simple metal objects like blades or horseshoes.

Likewise, the advent of motor vehicles changed the factors of “battle calculus” yet again, by replacing the horse with the motor engine. While the automobile has a host of limitations, those drawbacks are minimal in comparison to those of horse cavalry…

Which brings us, at last, to our core topic: “Ersatz Armies.”

As noted above, “irregular” forces – rebels, guerrillas, etc – have frequently struggled to compete with better-organized and supported “regular” armies. Such groups have to improvise methods of supplying not simply weapons, but food, medicines and other basic needs of a military force. In the past, these services and products were generally stolen from an enemy government, or were supplied directly by a foreign government, supporting the guerrillas. More infrequently than is generally assumed, a guerrilla force might purchase arms from “black market” arms dealers; in those cases, the guerrilla forces were teetering dangerously on the edge of being a criminal gang, more than a “heroic band of fighters for the people.”

But, with the sudden and rapid anarchy taking place in Sudan, another factor has once again reared its head: a deliberately created ersatz army.

In 2003, the Sudanese government in Khartoum recruited a group of tribal militias that coalesced into what is now known as the “Janjaweed”. This grouping of tribal militias went on to commit a host of terrible crimes, encompassing all the worst categories of criminal activities. So bad were these events, both the Sudanese dictator of the time, as well as one identifiable leader of the group, have been formally indicted for war crimes.

In the aftermath of the worst parts of the Darfur Conflict, the Janjaweed was not paid off and stood down by the government of Omar al Bashir – instead, it was expanded, given better training and weapons, had its name changed to the “Rapid Support Force” (RSF) (YouTube link) and was then used a force of “shock troops” to fight in regional wars, such as Libya and Yemen, where they proved willing to do the dirty jobs no self-respecting and –disciplined military would touch.

In effect, al Bashir created his own version of Adolf Hitler’s SA or SS – a powerful armed force, separate from the regular military, willing to do whatever was asked of them. Unlike Hitler, however, al Bashir lost control of his non-Army force; this resulted in the RSF collaborating with the regular Sudanese military to remove him from power. And, as these things almost always do, this resulted in a falling out among thieves, leading to the current disaster in the country.

What makes the RSF different from similar groups in the past, however, is its size and equipment. The RSF is estimated to number around 100,000 men (YouTube link), and have been equipped comparatively cheaply, with the most basic of infantry weapons and gear, as well as the ubiquitous “technical” vehicles. A hundred thousand troops, even if poorly trained, is nothing to scoff at, even if you intend to engage them directly.

Sudan is not unique: while other states may not have armed groups to the extent of the RSF, it is a far cheaper thing to do, than most people think…But these types of forces – with little or no control, nor moral training, but with effective weapons and training – are growing in number.

Ponder that, the next time you hear about drug cartel armies on the south side of the Rio Grande (YouTube link).

The Battle for Khartoum Rages On

Paul Collier April 25, 2023

SUDAN CIVIL WAR THREATENS TO SPILL OVER ITS BORDERS – 18 months after taking over Sudan in a military coup, the two Generals that led the coup are now vying for supreme power. The war is for control of the country by either the General of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and the General of the Army, Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan. Now the fighting is leading border countries like Chad and Libya to shut their borders down for fear of seeing the fighting spill into their countries.
The United States has evacuated its embassy, as have most other nations. Control for the capitol of Khartoum rages on, with the state media center switching hands at least twice so far in the fighting. The number of killed has not been generally reported, but it appears to be at least in the hundreds, so far, with no hope of a cease fire on the horizon.

The war began after the power-sharing agreement reached in 2021 broke down. Dagalo wants to integrate his paramilitary group, the RSF, into the regular army gradually, over the course of a decade. While al-Burhan wants a more rapid integration into the regular army he controls.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted about the conflict, “Deeply concerned about reports of escalating violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces. We are in touch with the Embassy team in Khartoum – all are currently accounted for. We urge all actors to stop the violence immediately and avoid further escalations…”

A UN envoy, Volker Perthes, said “The two sides who are fighting are not giving the impression that they want mediation for a peace between them right away.”

Conflict Update – Sudan Unravels, As Its Crows Come Home To Roost

Michael Cessna April 21, 2023

Conflict monitoring is an odd field: You try to monitor the world, and eventually specialize out of necessity. The recent descent into chaos in Sudan, Africa’s third-largest nation by size, is no different.

Beginning on April 15^th, a series of armed clashes began in Khartoum, the capital of the African nation. The opposing sides are the regular Sudanese Army, and a paramilitary force called the “Rapid Support Force (RSF)“. The two forces had united in 2019 to oust Omar al-Bashir, the country’s long-time dictator, in a military coup d’etat; two years later, in 2021, the two parties staged another coup to derail Sudan’s return to a democratically elected government.

The situation has deteriorated, in barely a single week, to the point that the United States and other powers (YouTube link) are rapidly deploying forces to Camp Lemonnier, located in the state of Djibouti, on the Red Sea coast, in preparation for a possible evacuation of various embassy’s and foreign nationals – a daunting prospect, given that Khartoum’s international airport is not currently usable, and because the capital city is nearly 800 miles inland.

The source of the current “lover’s quarrel” is the Regular Army dragging its feet over formally integrating the RSF into its force structure, as well as delays in payroll to the paramilitary force, with its leadership claiming that they want to return al-Bashir to power.

Who are the RSF?

In 2003, fighting erupted in Western Sudan as non-Arab (i.e., “black African”) tribes united against the al-Bashir government’s continued campaign of oppression and discrimination against them. The result was the Darfur War (sometimes called the “Land Cruiser War” because of the extensive used of ‘technicals’), a genocidal conflict that killed hundreds of thousands, and created between two and three million refugees.

*Map of Darfur within Sudan, July 2011. CCA/3.0*

The RSF began life as the so-called “Janjaweed”, a Sudanese Arab tribal militia assembled by al-Bashir’s government to suppress the Black African inhabitants of the region. Supporting this, were the remnants of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s “Islamic Legion”, an openly racist and pan-Arab organization intended to unite the Saharan region by force.

As the Darfur war reached a stalemate (that would ultimately result in a nominal ceasefire agreement in 2020), al-Bashir’s government began using a now-experienced and capable Janjaweed – under their commander, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – as extra muscle throughout the region, especially in places where the dirtiest of atrocities were needed.

Oozing to life in 2013 as an outgrowth of the Janjaweed, the RSF was quickly used by al-Bashir as a kind of “expeditionary force”, sending significant numbers of troops into both Chad and Libya (in the latter case, supporting the Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar), and a stunning 40,000-strong corps-sized unit into Yemen to fight against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The main difference between the RSF and the Janjaweed, is in the level of formal support and arms provided to them by the Sudanese government, with uniform weapons and vehicles.

The RSF is not simply large, with over 100,000 men under arms, but is also highly mobile, with an estimated 10,000 ‘technical’ trucks (YouTube link)…and it has developed an impressive economic infrastructure to support itself, thanks to the business chops of its leader and his family.

Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as “Hemedti“, locally), who dropped out of primary school in 3^rd grade to work to support his family, started out as a well-respected camel herder in the Darfur region. As he positioned himself as the chief commander of first the Janjaweed, and then the RSF, he used the forces loyal to him to help is company, Al Junaid, to corner the gold mining industry within Sudan, as well as a host of other industries, ultimately controlling up to 40% of Sudan’s exports.

And, like most warlords with sufficient resources, he has made life well for his loyalists in the RSF, who now follow his orders without question, helped by him polishing his speaking skills. This, along with a “charm campaign” managed by Western public relations firms to improve Hemedti’s image, has combined to form a kind of “mercenary micro-state” of a type that is highly unusual in the modern day…In many ways, the RSF is the nightmare scenario that world security analysts have been dreading since the rise of the “corporate terror group” model, when al Qaeda appeared in the late-1990’s.

In a very real sense, the leader of the regular Sudanese armed forces and Hemedti’s rival in the power struggle, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, have created a monster they can no longer control.

But, ultimately…who cares? Why should you care?

The current fighting in Sudan will almost certainly determine who will be the next ruler of the nation. As well, major powers – both global powers, and up-and-coming regional states seeking to expand their influence – are all jockeying for position, and that kind of jockeying can swiftly lead to an expanding conflict.

And all of this is happening literally on the banks of the Nile, Africa’s ancient major river system. No matter who wins this conflict, this will pose significant issues to Egypt and its population of over 100 million, already alarmed over Ethiopia’s dam building project that seriously threatens the downstream ecology and climate of the region.

Lastly, is the serious potential for major-power involvement, up to and including combat: Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary company has significant ties to the RSF, and in the region, generally. The Wagner Group has been reportedly guarding some gold mining areas for the central government since at least 2019, with speculation that Wagner-defended gold is being using used to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. Numerous foreign corporations have major investments throughout the region, and the expansion of the “private military company” market in the last twenty-five years means that there is little incentive to not hire lots of ex-military guns to guard their investments.

And, looming over the regular Western military commands’ psyches is the shadow of 1993’s “Battle of Mogadishu”, but on a far larger scale, with far fewer advantages for the Western powers.

The future does not look sunny.

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