Introduction
This article is going to press on November 8th of 2024. Donald J. Trump as been confirmed to have won the US Presidential election be a decisive margin. While much is being made in some quarters about how “Daddy Trump” is going to fix everything overnight, the reality is that Trump will face a myriad of major diplomatic challenges on Day One of his new administration. While we could write multiple articles on every one of the many wars Trump will have to deal with – and we will discuss one of them next week – this week, we will talk about the most important issue.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exposed critical weaknesses in Western defense industrial capacity, while recent infrastructure incidents highlight the fragility of military logistics chains. These vulnerabilities raise serious questions about NATO’s ability to sustain high-intensity conflicts and maintain global military readiness, because they are not being addressed.
“Peace Through Strength” is a resounding cry, but it requires “strength” to make it work.
The Artillery Crisis
NATO’s inability to meet Ukraine’s artillery shell requirements has revealed a stark reality: Western defense industries are no longer configured for industrial-scale warfare. The conflict has consumed ammunition at rates not seen since World War II, with Ukraine firing approximately 6,000-8,000 artillery rounds per day, while Russia expends an estimated 15,000-20,000 rounds daily.
European and American ammunition plants, optimized for peacetime efficiency rather than wartime surge capacity, have struggled to increase production. Most Western facilities operate on a single-shift basis with aging equipment, lacking the workforce and infrastructure for rapid expansion. The situation is exacerbated by shortages of raw materials and specialized components, many of which come from a limited number of suppliers.
In contrast, Russia – which had correctly forecasted the coming decade’s events – quietly began classifying increasing amounts of its economic (and possibly population) data, beginning in 2014. Further, while the Western powers had deliriously wrapped up and eventually converted or bulldozed much of its war production capacity, the newly non-Soviet Russia did not: they mothballed their facilities. And, as tensions with the West began rising after the Donbas War began, they began to quietly bring those mothballed plants back online.
The reason for focusing so much on artillery production is that, far more than the production of drones, tanks or airplanes, artillery is the most important determiner of modern warfare capabilities, after Logistics infrastructure and the combat abilities of one’s infantry forces.
Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
The recent collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland after being struck by the container ship MV Dali highlights another critical vulnerability in military logistics. Major ports and waterways are essential for moving military equipment and supplies, yet many rely on aging infrastructure. The Baltimore incident demonstrates how a single point of failure can disrupt both civilian and military shipping patterns across an entire region.
Similar vulnerabilities exist across NATO’s logistics infrastructure:
- Aging rail networks crucial for moving heavy military equipment
- Limited redundancy in key shipping channels and ports
- Concentrated dependence on specific facilities for military operations
- Vulnerability of critical bridges and tunnels to both accidents and potential sabotage
- Limited upgrades to handle increased loads
Supply Chain Complexity
Modern defense systems rely on intricate supply chains involving thousands of contractors and subcontractors. This complexity creates multiple potential points of failure:
Raw Materials
- Critical mineral dependencies
- Limited processing facilities
- Potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions
Component Manufacturing
- Specialized electronics producers
- Precision machining capabilities
- Quality control requirements
Assembly and Integration
- Skilled workforce shortages
- Facility capacity constraints
- Security clearance requirements
The China Factor
Many of these vulnerabilities trace back to China’s quiet dominance in global supply chains. Critical raw materials, electronic components, and industrial chemicals often originate from Chinese sources. This dependency creates strategic risks, particularly in scenarios where China might decide to restrict exports or support adversaries.
While this has yet to significantly impact the war in Ukraine, it remains a distinct possibility…especially should a Trump diplomatic effort fail or stall – or expand.
Impact on Military Readiness
These supply chain vulnerabilities affect military readiness in several ways:
Reduced Training
- Limited ammunition for training exercises
- Delayed maintenance due to parts shortages
- Restricted live-fire drills
Strategic Reserve Depletion
- Ammunition stocks below minimum requirements
- Extended replacement timelines
- Reduced crisis response capability
Force Projection
- Logistics bottlenecks limiting deployment options
- Increased vulnerability to interdiction
- Reduced sustained operation capability
Misplaced Priorities
Another serious consideration is the toxic culture of the long-ballyhooed “military-industrial complex“. That term is a tired trope that has been overused to the point of reducing it to a joke…However, it is very real, and is one of the major axes that is causing the downstream bottleneck that is choking the combat power of Western forces.
For generations, defense contractors have made squeezing as much taxpayer money as possible in technical “peacetime” as high a priority as possible, whether their products worked or not – the Sgt York and Dragon ATGM come immediately to mind. Making products like “dumb” (i.e., “unguided”) artillery ammunition and aircraft bombs is not considered as cost-effective, from a business perspective, as more technically complex – and thus, highly expensive – weapons systems.
The fact that these weapons cannot be produced anywhere near as quickly as modern combat demands – as demonstrated in Ukraine – is not part of the cost-benefit calculations of the commercial military-industrial complex.
Addressing the Challenges
Military planners are attempting to address these vulnerabilities through several initiatives:
Industrial Base
- Investing in modernized production facilities
- Developing workforce training programs
- Creating redundant supply sources
Infrastructure
- Identifying critical chokepoints
- Developing alternative routing options
- Improving facility protection
Stockpile Management
- Reassessing minimum stock levels
- Implementing more robust tracking systems
- Developing new storage facilities
At the same time, those same military planners face the harsh reality that too many civilian leaders in Congress – both outgoing and incoming – received a large amount of cash that put them into a very cushy position, and that getting those same politicians to act against what defense contractors see as their own best interests is going to be an uphill battle, all the way. This will be even harder for Donald Trump, who has dared to speak the unspeakable, that peace needs to break out again.
The Near Term Outlook
The combination of industrial capacity limitations and infrastructure vulnerabilities presents a serious challenge to Western military capabilities, and especially to the incoming 47th President. Addressing these issues requires sustained investment and policy attention, potentially including:
- Defense Industrial Base revitalization
- Infrastructure hardening and redundancy
- Supply chain diversification
- Stockpile expansion
- International cooperation on critical materials
- And finally, reining in the military-industrial complex, whether they like it or not
The lessons from Ukraine and incidents like the Baltimore bridge collapse underscore the urgent need for comprehensive supply chain resilience in defense planning…They also show the dangers of thinking that business and war are analogous – misapplying the principle of Sun Tzu is actually far more dangerous than dismissing them.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
- Julian Thompson (1994), Lifeblood of War: Logistics in Armed Conflict
- Thomas Ricks (2012), The Generals
- James F. Dunnigan (2003), How To Make War, 4th Edition
- James F. Dunnigan (1991), Shooting Blanks
