Publisher Bill Collier

Gaza War Slogs On

W R Collier Jr July 31, 2014

Netanyahu’s Failed Military Strategy Questioned By Some

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ANALYSIS- WORLD NEWS- William Raymond Collier JR- Many IDF officers are privately questioning the leadership of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his conduct of the war in Gaza. The criticisms are aimed at what is seen as indecisiveness. The PM’s office often gives no greater guidance than to attack in response to rocket launches or, as some IDF officers complain, “none at all.”

The IDF leadership are firmly convinced they have the means and skill to finish Hamas off. But the moral high ground once attained by Israel to do this, with the blessing even of major Arab powers who loathe Hamas, is slipping away. It is feared that if things do not change, this war will end as the last one did, a PR victory for Hamas as it prepares for the next round. Indeed, gains won towards actually forging some common ground with Arab powers against the “Jihadist” (Salafist) threat could be ceded if this operation ends indecisively.

When the Prime Minister added as a military goal the limited destruction of the tunnels that go from Gaza into Israel, broad-based penetration of Gaza’s 25 mile western border with Israel had to be scrapped. This sudden departure from the original plan made hash of the IDF logistics and planning efforts. It also resulted in a makeshift and reactionary deployment that still lacks a real strategic focus. Simply going after rocket stockpiles and tunnels does not constitute a strategic aim. In fact, some argue it is not even a tactical aim.

The original plan was aimed at toppling Hamas. The IDF would make 3-4 rapier thrusts across the strip’s 4-7 mile width through areas in between built up areas. Tanks would lead the way and a minimum force would be needed to cordon off the built up areas, thus preventing Hamas from holding a unified command. Then the infantry, with armor support, would focus on one pocket at a time Here the objective would be to further sub-divide the populated area, using main roads for armored thrusts, going neighborhood by neighborhood to take out Hamas. Appeals would be made to civilians- give up Hamas and peace would be possible. The current plan is akin to the Germans invading France and stopping to destroy the Maginot line while the French Army retreated and regrouped. The Germans bypassed the Maginot line altogether and later had ample time to destroy the defenses without meeting resistance from a now-defeated French army.

The IDF have crossed into Gaza on a broad front, with some 22,000 troops and 300 tanks on a 25 mile front, going into built up areas, but staying within a 1/2 mile to a mile of the border. The operation is now focused on the environs around the border to find and destroy tunnels. Again, if we return to our comparison of the German invasion of France in World War Two, had the Germans stopped at the Maginot line and concentrated on destroying those fortifications, the French would have been able to recover and consolidate their force, blunting the Blitzkrieg action that ultimately led to the fall of Paris and the surrender of the French Army.

If Hamas, its leaders, its command and control locations, and its soldiers, were targeted, they would no longer be able to use the tunnels. Israel would be free to destroy the tunnels at their leisure. Netanyahu is focusing instead on those tunnels and assigning artillery and air power to issue salvos in response to either rocket firings or intelligence about rocket storage.

This is leading to civilian casualties. It is not depleting Hamas’s supple of rockets as much as is claimed, and it is putting the IDF at a disadvantage. Meanwhile, Hamas remains in tight control and has unitary command because, beyond Israel’s incursion zone, the Gaza Strip remains cohesive and all the separate population centers are connected by wire and road.

Had the original plan been utilized, and had 40,000 men been deployed, it is likely, many believe, that the casualties on both sides would be lower and Hamas would be defeated, giving the IDF all the time it needed to locate and destroy tunnels in an essentially “cleared” environment. The action would be more like civilian demolition that a battle. But Netanyahu inexplicably abandoned this plan and opted for a very limited and, for both sides, costly operation.

On the ground, his orders have removed Israel’s best asset, the tanks, as practical weapons and placed his soldiers in the places where his enemy wants to fight. In the air and from a distance, without people on the ground, he has been forced to rely on stand-off weapons which, by their nature, have less accuracy than people on the ground.

One thing, however, has not materialized. Hamas had claimed to have some new way to defeat Israeli armor and inflict serious casualties on the IDF. In reality, whle there have been IDF casualties, they have not been near as high as Hamas planned or hoped for and in close order battle Hamas fighters have been more prone to flee. That has not meant that the fight is all one-sided, but it is still tilted heavily in favor of the better armed and better trained Israelis. Hamas, for its part, is switching to a PR offensive now, realizing that the IDF has no intention, at least for now, of actually destroying them “city by city” as was planned by the IDF, and as was feared by Hamas.

Even as open press reports now reveal that many Arab powers are backing any plan that results in the toppling of Hamas, Netanyahu seems determined to keep them in power. And that has many in the Middle East scratching their heads. But look for a possible change of direction as Netanyahu faces growing pressures both from Israelis and from Arabs to “get the job done” once and for all. Such sentiments are not shared by Washington, but the events of the past few weeks have significantly reduced America’s credibility, standing and relevance to the players in the region.

Update: with the latest truce offer having been accepted for 72 hours, and twith the rhetoric out of Israel still focused on tunnels, it appears that Prime Minister Netenyahu has thrown away any grand strategic plan. Destroying the tunnels is not a strategic aim, it is, at best, a tactical gain won at the cost of a major diplomatic setback and undermining of Israel’s standing with Arab powers who might have considered Israel an unlikely (secret) ally against groups like Hamas. Israel is not serious about replacing Hamas.

Update 2: August 1, 2014
The 72 hour truce has not held. The Israelis say that Hamas sent fighters through tunnels who killed two Israeli soldiers and possibly abducted a third. Hamas says Israel broke the truce by sending artillery fire into Rafah, a city in the Gaza strip.

This broken truce, if indeed an Israeli soldier has been adbucted and two killed, could potentially give Netenhayu an opportunity to switch from a short game to a more strategic approach. But it is unlikely as the Prime Minister, who enjoys a 65% popularity rating, has doubled down on his limited plan by scolding cabinet ministers who have questioned his leadership. This has had a chilling effect on others, including IDF officers, who fear the Prime Minister’s wrath.

Most Israelis are not aware of the difference between the strategic plan described here, which military strategists might argue would have caused fewer casualties on both sides and end Hamas as an entity, and the limited tactical plan that targets only tunnels, rocket supplies, and firing sites.

It would seem that the Prime Minister is a wholly political animal who sees this war in purely political, and not military, terms and it may even be that the Prime Minister wishes to keep Hamas around because their actions delegitimize the Palestinians in general. Hamas does tend to delegitimize the Palestinians and as long as they are lobbing rockets Israel does not feel they have to resume real peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, although the cost is that Israelis will continue to live with rocket attacks and daily disruptions of their lives.

The Ebola Scare- Why America Is Safe

W R Collier Jr July 31, 2014

Is the Ebola Scare justified or not?

US NEWS- William Raymond Collier Jr- In March of 2014, Guinea announced the outbreak of the Ebola virus in their country. Since then ,732 people in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have died, including Guinea’s leading Ebola doctor, who contracted the disease while treating patients.

Much has been said of the Ebola virus and there are fears that the virus could spread to the United States or Europe. The United Kingdom’s Cobra Committee, a committee which has special emergency response functions, has even met to discuss the threat.

There are fears that the virus could spread abroad from West Africa as people travel by air. In fact, Nigeria and many other nations have banned flights from Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. All three countries are launching massive public outreach efforts to raise awareness and isolate the outbreak. But the main problem for these countries stems from a substandard health care system and issues with early detection. If detected early, Ebola can, in fact be treated, but it requires a fairly sophisticated medical regimen that these nations cannot provide. Moreover, with proper sanitary precautions, the potential for an outbreak is also very limited.

According to the Centers for Disease Control, this is the treatment for Ebola- Standard treatment for Ebola HF is still limited to supportive therapy. This consists of:balancing the patient’s fluids and electrolytesmaintaining their oxygen status and blood pressuretreating them for any complicating infections.

Timely treatment of Ebola HF is important, but challenging, since the disease is difficult to diagnose clinically in the early stages of infection. Because early symptoms such as headache and fever are nonspecific to ebola viruses, cases of Ebola HF may be initially misdiagnosed.

However, if a person has the early symptoms of Ebola HF and there is reason to believe that Ebola HF should be considered, the patient should be isolated and public health professionals notified. Supportive therapy can continue with proper protective clothing until samples from the patient are tested to confirm infection.

This treatment regimen, as provided by the CDC, requires a sophisticated medical response and capability that is lacking in the affected countries.

Were an Ebola infected individual to arrive in the US or Europe, especially with existing screening measures, the likelihood of them contaminating someone else would be reduced simply because of existing sanitary measures. Once health officials determined they had Ebola, a fairly sophisticated system for finding and screening anyone they came into contact with is in place.

The virus spreads by more intimate contact. In other words, by bodily fluids or by eating or drinking anything the infected person has allowed to come into contact with bodily fluids, or by sharing utensils. In the West, our culture and our sanitary regimen mitigate against much of this.

To be clear- the virus is only transmitted via contact with such bodily fluis blood, urine, faeces, saliva, or puss (from open sores) – and thenfrom someone showing symptoms of Ebola.

If someone is infected and it is caught early on, treatment is known to work and, like any virus, Ebola is eventually killed by the body’s immune system. There is no “cure” other than to treat the patient as prescribed and allow their immune system to do its job, which eventually it will. So when you read that “there is no cure”, that is true, just as there is no cure for the common cold!

This does not mean that it is impossible for some people to initially catch Ebola from a foreign passenger and, if their infection is not detected, for some to even die. Exercising an abundance of caution when traveling to affected locations or when interacting with people who have come from those locations is prudent and necessary.

But once anyone has been discovered to be infected, in the US or Europe the regimens in place to quickly isolate them and find everyone they have been in contact with and the degree of intimate contact needed to become infected will severely limit any outbreak in the West.

The real issue and concern should be, after of course proper precautions have been taken at home, those people in the affected countries who do not have all these advantages and who are even now living in fear for their lives from this deadly outbreak.

An excellent article with interviews of health officials and statements from WHO and the CDC should also help allay fears. VOX Article On Ebola

Free Gaza…from Hamas

W R Collier Jr July 30, 2014

Hamas, a brutal occupier of Gaza, oppressing and murdering Muslim and Jew, Palestinian and Israeli alike

OPINION- William R Collier Jr- There seems to be a trend among those who believe that Israel is riding roughshod over the Arab Palestinians, and it is a dangerous trend…for Arabs and Muslims. That trend is the excusing of extremist violence and tyranny directed not at Israel but at fellow Arabs by the likes of Hamas, Hezbollah, and ISIS. Average normal Muslims who want to live in a free and modern society, who embrace the values of tolerance and liberty, even for non-Muslims in their midst, are infidels to these bad actors.

The continued allowance and excuse-making for any group or entity that opposes the Israelis is only making those radical, hateful, and despotic groups more powerful in the Middle East. Countries that wish to prevent the spread of tyrannical Salafism in their land need to think twice about supporting radical Salafists abroad, as we see with Qatar and its near love affair with Hamas. Does a true Muslim use his own children and wife as a human shield while cowering behind women’s skirts to make war? I have never met a real Muslim who would not despise this, but when Hamas does this, few Arab or Muslim countries openly rebuke it as they should. I can only think of Egypt as one Muslim nation that has openly rebuked these practices by Hamas.

Even among Palestinians, there is a growing jingoistic fervor that is causing otherwise kind and decent Muslims, whose moderation is itself offensive to groups like Hamas, to look the other way, to make excuses for Hamas, while Hamas grows in strength. Sadly, if the trend continues, Hamas will march right into the West Bank and many an Arab and a Muslim will see what terror Hamas itself inflicts on its own people. Who needs the Israeli “occupation”: when Hamas occupies any space everyone who fails to follow their throwback ideology of barbarism disguised as Islam will suffer. They cause Palestinians to suffer even worse than if Israel occupied their land.

The damage being done to the Muslim world and Arab nations is immense. There is a growing suspicion in America that Hamas and Hezbollah, and even ISIL, are the true face of the Arab and Muslim world and the negative consequences could be tremendous. While this is not true (anyone who knows anything about the Arab world can easily attest to that), seeing no real alternative than these Salafist totalitarian extremists, Americans will assume it is.

Never mind that President Obama is largely ignoring this popular sentiment, for he will not be president forever. It is possible that the next president will be so influenced by this sentiment that the US will become increasingly hostile to Arab and Muslim nations and lump them all in with the likes of Hamas.

Three nations, two not even Arab, are making this possible. They are Turkey, Iran, and Qatar. Turkey is lurching towards becoming a Salafist dictatorship under Erdogan, Iran is a Salafist dictatorship, and Qatar is just, apparently, trying to placate Salafists, hoping that its neighbors, instead of itself, earn the ire of those radical fascists. These three nations are giving the Salafist totalitarians money and diplomatic cover, and even weapons.

Is the dream of a Palestinian state free of Jewish occupation worth the cost of raising up an occupier like Hamas, which hates all Arabs and Muslims who fail to adhere to its Salafist totalitarianism? Would Hamas not be a more brutal occupier of Palestinian lands than the Israelis?

Salafist radicalism is as much the enemy to average moderate, decent, and freedom loving Muslims as it is to Christians and even Jews. Whatever the Arab beef with Israel, using and empowering Hamas as a weapon against Israel is a dangerous game that is not worth the risk to the peace, safety, and freedom of Arabs and Muslims in general.

I want a free Gaza. why not start by freeing Gaza from Hamas?

A New Model For A Free Press

W R Collier Jr July 29, 2014

A People-Powered Community Press Model From Tioga County, PA

tioga freedomist header 7 19 14 — Our First Local Newspaper- The Tioga Freedomist- Tioga County PA

FREEDOM ESSAY- William Raymond Collier JR- Nestled firmly in mountain valleys, Tioga County PA is the center of what is called “the Twin Tiers”, a highly mountainous and verdant region on the borders of New York’s Southern Tier and Pennsylvania’s Northern Tier. Sleepy, mostly rural, but with some towns, and not often the source of national news, the Twin Tiers and Tioga County PA in particular are home to what may very well be a new model for a truly free and independent press. In short, the region may not “make the news” often but it is actually remaking the way news will be done in the whole nation through a new model for news reporting and dissemination that is profitable.

The new model is being tried, tested, and refined through a local and now regional digital newspaper with a print edition in Tioga County as the starting point. Within 2 years of its launch, the Tioga Freedomist has achieved remarkable market penetration.

In its immediate coverage area of around 200,000 people, the heart of the Twin Tiers, this relatively new media entity reaches over 65,000 readers through print, social media, and its main website, Tiogafreedomist.com. What is more, of those 65,000 plus regional readers, 30,000 come from Tioga County PA alone, which has a total population of 46,000. This means that this new publication has a regional market penetration of around 32.5% and a local market penetration of around 65%.

How has this degree of market penetration been achieved in only two years?

The phrase “your people powered community press- free and independent” sums up the basic model. The newspaper relies on actual reader participation in the news gathering process, teaching readers basic rules and methods of journalism along the way; it uses a Watchdog, Advocate, and Resource model (or “WAR” for short) for determining news content; and it remains focused on being free and independent with a special focus on the original spirit and intent of the Bill of Rights (which we believe all press SHOULD focus on objectively and fairly).

People want news that has this balance (Watchdog, Advocacy, and Resource news). They want to be empowered to participate in news gathering and reporting. They want news that is fair and freedom focused (remembering that “free” is the first ethical imperative of the “free press”), and they want news that is written in the language of real people instead of the cold “emotionless” language of the old media establishment.

While the Tioga Freedomist has its own unique editorial leanings, it welcomes, and receives, all views across the political spectrum- this empowerment of readers to advocate for their views and convictions is a vital part of the “community press” mission.

The numbers prove the point. More and more local and regional readers are coming to the Tioga Freedomist not only to get news but to participate actively. Readers lead many stories and are often the best or only sources of accurate information. Readers use this platform to help one another- hundreds of thousands of dollars in funds or direct aide have been raised by readers using the Tioga Freedomist to rally supporters. It is not unusual, for instance, for a story on a fire to be followed with an appeal for donations to help the people involved. This appeal, usually posted by a reader, is then promoted through the newspaper’s resources to reach its large audience.

Of course, advertisers use this platform to reach potential customers and as the “secret” of this newspaper’s market penetration gets out more and more local businesses are shifting their advertising budgets to include this newspaper’s print, social media, and website advertising options. For funding, the Tioga Freedomist depends on earning advertising dollars, using nothing but free market principles.

The parent company, Kross Publishing, which also owns this national digital newspaper and many other properties, has invested in building the local and regional audience in order to earn advertising revenue. The ability to invest during the first two years while the newspaper was gaining advertising revenue as a result of growing in market share has made the current success possible.

This model of a people-powered community press that is free and independent is the future of local journalism. The need for accurate news that includes Watchdog, Advocacy, and Resource reporting and coverage has not gone away. What has changed are three key things- the delivery (a combination of social media, print, and websites), the style of writing (lose the emotionless “AP style” and don’t just push YOUR views- be inclusive), and the process (reader participation leads, not the agenda of editors or owners).

A community press must be “owned” by its readers. If readers truly own it, advertisers who want to reach those readers must follow, and thereby profit is not merely possible but inevitable.

Welcome to the new model for community based journalism- a people powered free press that is free and independent to its core.

NOTE: William Raymond Collier JR is the Editor of the Tioga Freedomist. Paul Gordon Collier, the co-editor of The Freedomist, is the Digital Media Director.

A DREAMER ARMY

W R Collier Jr July 28, 2014

Politicians Urge Military To Recruit DREAMers

POLITICS- William Raymond Collier Jr- Politicians are now urging the military to recruit DREAMers, children of illegal immigrants who were brought here and who know only America as their country.

From the Press Release by Congressmen Bill Foster:
Representatives Bill Foster, Jared Polis, and Juan Vargas introduced a House resolution calling on the Department of Defense to allow DREAMers to serve in the military……
“There are many smart, capable young men and women who want nothing more than to serve the only country they have ever known,” said Foster. “Allowing DREAMers to serve in our military is just one small fix we can make to our broken immigration system, but it’s a fix that will give hope and opportunity to thousands of DREAMers while strengthening our military.”
“For many young people brought to the United States before adulthood, America is the only place they’ve known as home,” said Congressman Polis. “I hope the Department of Defense seizes this opportunity to enlist interested Deferred Action individuals in all branches of our military and allow them to help keep our nation, and their home, safe.”
…..With the support of congressional leaders, like Rep. Foster, DREAMers around the country hope the Department of Defense updates their policies in August to allow us to serve in uniform,” said Cesar Vargas.Background: In 2012, the President introduced the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program to allow certain undocumented individuals who were brought to the United States as children, so-called DREAMers, to be provided temporary relief from deportation and be given the ability to work here legally. DACA beneficiaries have already undergone background checks and finished high school or received a GED equivalent.
Unfortunately, the DACA program does not currently allow these youth to join the U.S. Armed Forces. However, such a change could be made through executive action.

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Opponents disagree that a change could be made by executive action. In fact, the House is in the process of executing a lawsuit against the President over these executive action. There is also concern that such people might not be loyal to the US Constitution, especially the Bill of Rights.

Some veterans who have served with “foreigners” have argue that often these people, who must study the US Constitution and Bill of Rights, are often “the most patriotic” and tend to take their oath rather seriously. However. this has not been tested with children of illegals who may not share such sentiments.

One possible rejoinder might be to require such persons to undergo a short (two week) course detailing the history of the US Constitution and Bill of Rights and requiring them to pledge allegiance to upholding both as a condition of their enlistment.

Thus far, however, the only position being taken by opponents is a flat no. They argue that this sets a dangerous precedent and results in recruiting people into our military whose loyalty to the Constitution and Bill of Rights is suspect, and that is could result in a dilution of our military by individuals who would not adequately represent our Constitutional values.

There are others, some of whom might traditionally oppose this action, who argue that embracing this move might actually create Constitutionally-centered new citizens who would be leaders of families that would more rapidly assimilate with American values and culture.

Under this scenario, they argue, the attempt to legalize ‘like-minded’ citizens for political ends might backfire, as those who come to embrace constitutional values would not embrace the values reflected by the current political party now courting this group.

We should note that the Democratic Party would not characterize itself as being opposed to Constitutional values, but political opponents of the Democratic Party do characterize them in this manner.

US Diplomacy Stumbles In The Mideast

W R Collier Jr July 28, 2014

Kerry Fails in Ceasefire Negotiations between Israel and Hamas

WORLD NEWS

L to R- Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Qatari Foreign Minister Khaled al-Attiyah

William Raymond Collier Jr- In order to come up with a cease-fire agreement between Hamas and Israel, US Secretary of State John Kerry first made a stop in Paris on the 25th of July.

During this stop, he met with Catherine Ashton, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, as well as foreign ministers from Italy, the UK, Germany, and France. Present at this meeting were representatives from Qatar and Turkey, whose support for Hamas has upset many Arab nations and the Palestinian Authority.

Left out of this meeting? Egypt, the Palestinian Authority Israel, or any backers of Israel.

Increasingly, Egyptian and Israeli officials are accusing the US of taking sides with Hamas, led largely by Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. In the past, President Obama described Erdogan as one of his “closest friends.” Erdogan recently stated that the Israelis’ actions in Gaza “far outweighed” what Hitler did to the Jews.

Erdogan is in the process of setting up a presidential dictatorship, has been accused of sending arms to the ultra-Salafist group known as either ISIS or ISIL, and has even been making threatening moves against fellow NATO member, Greece.

In recent months, however, President Obama has not had much communication with Erdogan whom, in all fairness to President Obama, may no longer be held in the same esteem by the President.

This US coziness with Turkey, Hamas, and Qatar who are fast becoming pariahs in the greater Muslim world for their support of terrorist organizations, is making Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority nervous.

The Palestinian Authority is the sole legitimate ruler of Palestinian territories and was booted from Gaza by a localized military coup backed, it is now believed, with Iranian and Turkish money.

After his Paris meeting, evidently, Secretary Kerry took up what were essentially Hamas demands as a condition for a cease-fire and, through his personal presence, as well a “frank discussion” President Obama had with the Israeli Prime Minister, strongly pressured the Israelis to accept the deal. But since one of the conditions involves Egypt opening up its Gaza border to Hamas, it would require pressuring Egypt as well.

Egypt, the PA, and Israel have a version of a cease-fire they have agreed to, but Secretary Kerry, according to the Egyptians, “is digging a tunnel under Egyptian diplomacy.”

The Egyptian-PA-Israeli approach is to end hostilities, leave all forces in situ, allow the closing of Hamas tunnels to continue, and open a two week negotiation in Egypt brokered by Egypt and participated in by the PA, Hamas, and Israel. The Kerry-Hamas proposal allows Hamas to attack Israeli soldiers in Gaza, calls for opening the Egyptian border with Hamas, and calls for massive aid supplies to Hamas, along with Israel ending its anti-tunnel operations. It does not include a provision for Egyptian or PA involvement.

The Egyptian Government is still smarting over the US Government’s backing of the radical Salafist group, Muslim Brotherhood, which Hamas supports. The Muslim Brotherhood’s ouster from power by a dramatic popular uprising that included almost half the population hitting the streets, was condemned by the Obama Administration, even as it continues to support the radical Salafist group today, according to Egyptian sources.

By discarding the Egyptian led effort in favor of Qatar and Turkey, Secretary Kerry has won the ire of US allies in the region who are openly questioning which side the US is on, the moderate and peaceful Muslim nations, or radical Salafists groups, and those nation, Qatar and Turkey, which now back them?

Others argue that Kerry’s diplomacy with Qatar and Turkey stems from the fact they represent Hamas’ interests and that any notion that the US is taking sides is absurd. Kerry’s staff also accused the Israelis of leaking a cease-fire proposal before it was finalized. The Israelis have denied the charge by Kerry.

Qatar has earned ire from its neighbors for how it allegedly welcomed the 5 released Taliban terrorists released by the US as heroes, for the editorial content of Al Jazeera, which leans towards the Salafists, and for accusing the UAE of secretly working with Israel. Increasingly, many Arab Nations are becoming estranged from Qatar, including Saudi Arabia.

The net effect among regional powers, whether fair or not, is that US standing as an “honest broker” is being diminished because regional powers feel snubbed and are concerned that the US may be more favorable towards the enemies of her allies than they are towards their allies. This can be a complete falsehood but unless it is addressed head-on it could lead to a degrading of US influence in the region.

With talk now that Hamas may indeed agree to the Egyptian brokered plan, which in effect freezes out the US from the process, Secretary Kerry, Turkey, and Qatar are essentially “bit players” in the drama. Meanwhile Israeli forces have been ordered only to fire if fired upon.

Jobs Are Coming Back to America

W R Collier Jr July 24, 2014

Jobless Claims Reach 8-year Low

US NEWS

Labor Market Strengthens
Fed Chair Warns- May Raise Interest Rates

William Raymond Collier Jr- Lower than expected jobless claims were cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as reason enough to raise interest rates sooner and more rapidly. While the report is positive for those seeking jobs, the numbers could result in lower profits and higher interest rates for Wall Street. A weak labor market would keep the cost of labor down and interest rates low.

For the last 5 months, we have seen 200,000 new jobs each month, or a million jobs total since March. Up until 5 months ago, the level of participation has been historically low, but with last week’s new jobless claims down to 284,00, a number not seen since February 2006, the level of participation in the work force is bound to rise.

These numbers can be revised, for instance, the prior week’s claims were adjusted upwards by 1,000. The total number is still 60,000 lower than predicted by economists. Critics of the President have tried to look for the dark lining in the silver cloud, but these numbers seem to reflect an authentic jobs market recovery, a fact that is bound to help the Democrats in 2014 if the trend continues.

Critics of immigration reform point out that legalizing 22 million new job seekers might offset any gains currently being seen. These new, legal job seekers, the theory goes, could flood the labor market with low skilled workers who accept lower wages than average American workers, thus taking up the new jobs and returning the labor market to a status quo that favors employers over workers.

This possibility might explain why the US Chamber of Commerce is pushing for unlimited amnesty, or at least a “path to legalization” to “legitimize” the millions of illegal immigrant workers employed by so many American businesses in order to keep labor costs down.

The initial increase in labor cost paid by American businesses who currently employ illegal immigrants for sub-minimum-wage rate would be offset by the overall lowering of the cost of labor as the supply of job seekers would be higher than the availability of jobs. In job markets in which the supply of job seekers is greater than the availability of jobs, the wages of the worker is lower.

The countervailing view is that the influx of new, legal labor will be needed to meet the demands of what promises to be a rapidly expanding jobs market. Without these new, legal workers, these proponents argue, there would be shortfalls in the labor market.

The key principle from a purely economic perspective is to balance the labor pool with the jobs pool. Whenever there is too great an imbalance between jobs and job seekers, economic downturns are sure to follow.

These numbers indicate that the labor market recovery might be gaining traction, which could result in an unemployment rate of 6.1% without the necessity of burying the other telling number, the percentage of adults actually seeking employment. This alone could mean the growth of good paying jobs for working people is beginning now.

Debt Drags the Dragon

W R Collier Jr July 23, 2014

BUSINESS NEWS- WORLD

China’s Debt Reaches 250% of GDP

William R Collier Jr. – For the past five years, we have been writing about China as a paper tiger with inflated numbers, and now analysis has revealed that China’s much-vaunted “economic miracle” is nothing more than the result of debt spending on a massive scale.

Stephen Green at Standard Chartered has calculated that China’s actual debt is now 250% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). But in 2009, China’s debt was only around 70% of its GDP, making this meteoric rise alarming. This debt includes both public and private debt. However, in China, the government controls much of the corporate world and financial institutions.

With a reported GDP of $9.6 trillion, China’s total debt should equal around $24 trillion. The US, by comparison, has a GDP of around $16.24 trillion, with a total debt burden of $42.2 trillion. Total public debt stands at $17.1 trillion.

While total government debt may be 53% of GDP, a major portion of the corporate and financial sector debt is directly driven by the government which operate a communist “management” policy that, at best, mixes free market policies with their overall Party agenda.

In the United States, government and private debt equal 260% of the GDP, with federal government debt right at 105% of GDP and private debt at 155% of GDP, but much of this private debt is independent of government obligation.

US Debt has also risen. At the end of 2008, just before President Obama was sworn into office, US public debt stood at around $10 trillion with a GDP at around $14.5 trillion. At the end of 2013, US public debt stood at $16.7 trillion compared to a GDP of $16.9 trillion. It is projected that 2014’s GDP will stay at around $16.9 trillion, while public debt has gone over $17.6 trillion. Household debt in the US, money owed by individuals, it at $13 trillion, near where it was in 2007, and has shrunk since the end of 2008 both as a percentage of total debt and in terms of raw amounts.

But while the total US debt has risen around 40% since 2009, an alarming number to be sure for some, Chinese debt has risen from a little under 80% of GDP to 251% of GDP, and that’s just the debt we know about. The Chinese are known for manipulating numbers in their favor, which usually means that if the numbers look bad, they are probably worse.

It would appear then that much of China’s “success” and even “growth” has been driven by a massive spending program, funneled through “private” but government controlled institutions to prop up what remains an essentially communist, and, therefore, unsustainable economy.

The Cyber Battle for Iraq

W R Collier Jr July 22, 2014

WORLD NEWS
William R. Collier Jr

Iraq’s warring factions, and the government, have come to the realization that controlling cyber-space is a necessary war-fighting element, as important as land warfare or aerial domination. Cyberspace, the place where people communicate, get information, and collaborate is the new target. Those who dominate the landscape can operate freely while preventing their enemy from operating freely.

We have learned how ISIL/ISIS has used cyberspace for sophisticated command and control, giving them quite modern and advanced communications capabilities once only available to first world nations. Simply turning off the space is becoming as difficult as turning off the sky: too many communications and transactions depend on the existence of that space.

In Iran, for instance, during the 2009 uprising the government tried to turn off the space. The problem? Millions of government and financial transactions required the use of that space. So the internet was “turned back on” and the government tried to control the space. Today, the ability of governments to control that space short of turning it off is limited. A simple software solution, such as creating a program that filters out certain sites based on content or location, will not work- insurgents and criminals can get around those blocks or simply burrow deep into “spaces” (websites or social networks) that are not blocked.

Criminals and insurgents in Iraq have taken to employing groups of cyber operators. Some act as sleuths, some create malware and other programs designed to spy on targeted computers and networks, some operate “clone accounts” to insinuate themselves into groups, some conduct “operations” (like denial of service attacks, physhing schemes that are meant to steal user names and passwords) and still others operate web crawling and spidering tools to obtain data.

In Iraq, cyber warfare observers have noted that full-on cyber war is being waged. In one instance, a Trojan Horse program was inserted through a link to a “friendly” article clicked on by the targets. The program turned on microphones and video and allowed ISIL to literally see and hear the internal workings of an opposition group operating in Iraq.

Of all the actors, including the government, ISIL has perhaps invested the most resources into these operations, while their operators have also devised clever ways to maintain secure communications for a sophisticated command and control. We have even hear rumors of an ISIL program that allows for a missile hack whereby a “dumb” rocket is guided to a target by Google maps. This is not as precise as US “smart munitions”, but it is far more sophisticated than what has been available.

The now “old” idea of tracking IP addresses is also not enough. These groups create multiple layers of proxy servers and, now, “ip hopping” programs change the IP address of a server every few seconds. The best way to locate the enemy is to actually get an operator into their network who obtains that information, or enough hints to allow for “investigations” to track locations.

It is believed that ISIL operators succeeded in tracking an Iraqi police chief to his home, the location of which had been a closely guarded secret, by infiltrating an online group and inserting a “snooper” program into the police HQ’s computer network which had been accessible to informants. The infamous video of his beheading is proof enough that, for ISIL. cyber warfare is a major component of their warfare.

Near as we can tell, the Iraqi government has not been up to the task of countering this. Cyber space in Iraq is dominated by closely knit groups. The government’s operations are compromised because there are infiltrators involved and they have not worked out a process for vetting potential cyber operators that has worked. Only government cyber units that are coherent by tribe and sect have had any real success in preventing infiltration.

So the cyber landscape for average Iraqis is a dangerous one, although most malware infections have been rather targeted. Generally when “civilians” have had their computers compromised, it is because they are associated with or physically near a target of such operations. We are witnessing the first “collateral damage” due to cyber warfare.

But could this cyber battlefield be extended?

ISIL, for its part, envisions a Caliphate stretching from the Turkish border that includes the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula at least. Future targets of their cyber warfare will include all those nations and, possibly, even Turkey (this despite reports that Turkey’s Prime Minister has been secretly sending them arms).

All around the world, criminals and potential insurgents are seeing cyber space as the next frontier in lateral warfare or guerrilla warfare and many of the world’s governments are ill prepared for this onslaught.

Is Turkey Supplying ISIL and preparing for war with Greece?

W R Collier Jr July 21, 2014

REPORT
William R Collier Jr

ALARM BELLS RING OVER ERDOGAN’S INTENTIONS

Is Turkey secretly preparing for war again Greece? Meanwhile, a Turkish politician says Erdogan is secretly arming ISIL and al-Qaeda. Is Erdogan a secret Salafist bent on war and dictatorship?

Three developments are raising alarm bells regarding the true intentions of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s Islamist, and possibly Salasfist, Prime Minister. The three developments include accusations that Erdogan is arming ISIL and al-Qaeda, accusations that Erdogan will set up a presidential dictatorship if he wins the August 10^th to 24^th Presidential elections, and accusation that his military is preparing for war against Greece.

A Turkish politician from the “Republican People’s Party” has made the stunning accusation, with alleged documentary proof, that the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, is actively funneling money and weapons to the so-called “Islamic State”, an extremely radical Salafist group that has seized territory and is terrorizing Muslims and non-Muslims who do not conform to their ideological fanaticism.

Party Deputy Chairman Bülent Tezcan held a press conference on the very steps of the Turkish Parliament in Ankara. According to Tezcan, a National Intelligence Organization (MIT in Turkish) truck was seized in the city of Adana as part of an investigation several months ago. The documents, which Tezcan showed at the press conference, revealed that police who seized the truck discovered a large stash of small arms.

Tezcan said, “the records leave no room for doubt that the government has sent weapons and ammunition to the terrorist organizations al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria.” Attached to the weapons were further documents, written in a Cyrillic script, probably indicating that they are Russian. The truck picked up the shipment from Ankara’s Esenboğa Airport, having been flown in, possibly from Russia, according to the testimony of the driver and other people involved in the shipment.

Party Deputy Chairman Bülent Tezcan scuffles with Erdogan's party in parliament earlier this year. — Party Deputy Chairman Bülent Tezcan scuffles with Erdogan’s party in parliament earlier this year.

He said, “the weapons that were given to ISIS have now beeen turned against Turkish citizens. “ He also asked “whether the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government have struck a deal with ISIS?” This is the part of the government in power.

Most sensationally, he accused the government of arming these groups directly.

“So have you [the government] carried the missiles you will throw at Turkey with these trucks in advance? Was it these trucks that carried the weapons used in the Reyhanlı attacks?” he asked. He was referring an attack in the border town of Reyhanlı on May 11, 2013. The attack resulted in 53 causalities and is believed to have been carried out by al-Qaeada.

“Is it not a crime in international law to arm the militants of ISIL and al-Qaeda like this in the Middle East?” Tezcan asked during the press conference. “We know the answers to all of these questions and the government also knows the answers and they will one day give their answers in front of the Supreme State Council in Turkey, the name the Constitutional Court assumes while trying the current or former members of a government, and before international courts.”

The idea that elements of the Turkish government might be arming such groups goes hand in hand with reports that Turkey and Qatar are alone in the Muslim world urging Hamas to turn down cease-fire offers in what some see as a bid to create further unrest and instability. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party may be seeking to create external bogeyman and crisis in order to gain support during elections, or they may be secretly pursuing a Salafist agenda, which is worrisome to Turkish citizens.

The second accusation leveled against Erdogan is that he is plotting to create a dictatorship.

The first round of the Turkish Presidential Elections is slated for August 10, 2014 and some fear that Erdogan wants to win at all costs. Currently, he is the Prime Minister and as President It is expected that if Erdogan won the Presidency he must resign as Prime Minister, but if he chose to hold on to both offices together he could set himself up as a dictator, say some opponents.

Recently. Erdogan raised eyebrows when he stated that Israel’s operations in Gaza were far worse than anything Hitler did.

The Turkish people do not support groups like al-Qaeda or ISIL and if these accusation gain traction it could hurt Erdogan in the polls on August 10. Erdogan wants to change the Turkish system of government through a new Constitution that would make the government a “presidential system” in which the President holds most of the power.

It is alleged that Erdogan arranged to supply the weapons for two reasons- a secret Salafist sympathy and to barter for the release of 32 Turkish hostages held by ISIL, seized from Mosul, Iraq, in order to “look tough.” ISIL for its part has threatened to kill Erdogan, but, critics say, “he doesn’t appear to be a man under threat.”

The third allegation is that Erdogan is plotting to wage war against Greece.

Since 2011, military observers have raised suspicions that Erdogan intends to attack Greece on the European mainland itself.

In December of 2011, the Turks began to take deliveries of 52 offensive amphibious bridges, which delivery has now been completed. The bridges would allow the Turkish Army to cross the Evros River which separates Turkish territory from the Greek mainland. The Turks also took delivery of 40 heavy de-mining vehicles which could be used to push past any Greek minefields in potential area of operations.

The 52 offensive amphibious bridges- from defencegreece.com

All of this equipment, which has value only in offensive operations, was delivered solely to the 1st Army in Eastern Thrace and to no other units of the Turkish Army.

On November 13, 2013 Greek Secretary of Defense Athanasios Davakis claimed, “There is no doubt that there is an active threat formulated by our neighbor and there is also no doubt that there is over-concentration of military forces on the Ebro (river) and Asia Minor (Aegean), and significant increase in military spending in Turkey. Also, no one denies that they have a daily air and naval practice concerning violations, procedures for search and rescue, which means that our country must at all times have corresponding and similar data, in order not to be found lacking in this reality. Since that is the fact, then (we must) manage defense planning at all levels including new structures which will weight the proper assessment of the threat and our country’s national strategy. ”

Erdogan is believed by some to be harboring a secret Salafist ambition which would come into the fore only if he wins this Presidential election, which many fear will be “highly irregular.” Others dismiss this as highly speculative and sensationalist, including many Greek politicians, who have often spoken of an improvement of Greco-Turkish relations.

Greek efforts to broaden its base of support, including with China, out of nervousness about NATO’s commitment to its sovereignty, especially in light of the Ukraine crisis, might seem understandable in light of these development in Turkey, and while few seriously believe Erdogan is a secret Salafist, the low probability is offset by the severity of the possible consequences if this is true. If these allegations are true, however, it would seriously alter the geopolitical reality in the region and could lead to a rupture of NATO.

Stay tuned here as we will continue to cover this and analyze events.

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