Bill Collier- Rumors are trending in Russian blogs and forums that President Putin is being removed from power by a military/intelligence services coup orchestrated by oligarchs who see his chauvenistic policies as being bad for Russia, and their wallets.

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German dominance over the EU may or may not be “intentional”, but it is very real in the eyes of many.

Bill Collier- Roman Prodi, who was President of the European Commission from 1999 to 2004, had been warning people for some time that the European Union was either an alliance of equal, democratic powers, or it is nothing.

From its inception, the EU was a constellation of states revolving around Britain, France, and Russia. But the dynamics inside the EU have changed. First, the was Britain’s withdrawal from active participation in the EU.  As the EU is forging more integration between member states, Britain has resisted those changes, including rejecting adopting the Euro. Second, France has become an economic basket case and has fallen behind Germany and Britain economically. Third, with the inclusion of Eastern European states into the EU, the Germans have utilized their physical proximity and their dominance as a trade partner to great effect.

The emergence of German predominance in the EU means now that the greatest weight in terms of actual EU direction and policy rests in Berlin, not Brussels. The push for “asuterity” among EU members with economic woes (including Spain, Italy, and Greece) has come straight from Berlin. Angela Merkel’s diplomacy in Minsk with Russia over the Ukraine crisis is the deciding factor in EU policy.

The German state is, by American political standards, a secular and left-leaning political entity that pursues both a social libertarianism and an economic program rooted in social democracy. The most “conservative” German political parties of any popularity would be considered center-left by American standard. Stating that you believe there is only one way to get to heaven, questioning whether homosexuality is natural, or even showing much pride and patriotism for your country are offensive to mainstream German culture. The German state reflects secular, libertine social democracy to its core and, as Germany has become the prime move in the EU, that is becoming the policy of the EU itself.

This German tendency to reject “hard lines” about morality, patriotism, or religion even may stem from the German assessment of its own history, not least World War Two, and so talk of any kind of German dominance over the EU is not something most Germans would be proud of. At most, Germans might speak of Germany as the reluctant “hegemon” (dominating power) over the EU by virtue of its geographical position, population, economic strength, and what some call its “political stewardship.”

American policy may be simplified to a certain degree by this development: it is easier to deal with only one power and not go through Brussels. But the Germans, despite their professions, are, by nature, aggressive and not prone much to taking a lesser role given the opportunity. The days of the US being looked to for leadership in Europe and NATO are over. The reluctant hegemon is not going to simply go along with what the US wants, as we see with the Ukraine where the Germans seem to be influenced by their own prior history- they seem determined to avoid a clash with Russia there even if that means Russia achieves all of its goals in Ukraine.

The German culture and mindset is, one might argue, tainted and poisoned by its rejection of the past- they seem to be determined to “prove” they are the opposite of every stereotype. Today’s Germany is not the Germany of the days before Hitler’s rise to power, and whatever one might find worthy of historical German values and culture, for the Germans, those values belong in the past. Today’s Germany is in fact a reluctant hegemon, a left-tilted, internationalist, libertine, and yet greatly centralized state with a very narrow center-left political spectrum that is (reluctantly, some claim) gaining as much dominance over Europe as a power that might have conquered those states by force.

A center-left political reality seems to be working for the Germans. Their economy is strong, it is not soaring, but Germans today value stability over everything else. As one German businessman who is taxed at 56% of his income said, he’d rather pay high taxes and cover free university and health care for all “then be a rich man in a poor country.” For the Germans, the lure of “something better” is not enough to change this sentiment- even if more economic freedom might produce better overall results, it would not, they fear, necessarily produce those results for all or even most people.

So German monetary policy in the EU, and therefore the policy of the EU, is colored by this sentiment, and real pressures are being brought to bear on member states to adopt a similar approach, albeit in a rational and measured manner.

If the Germans, and therefore the EU, are rarely concerned about Christian persecution, this is at least colored by their aversion of any kind of dogma, where one preaches their religion and their God as the only way to heaven. When Christians are persecuted for sharing their faith, a mandate many Christians feel comes from the Bible, they are violating a modern German cultural tradition which makes religion private and which rejects any kind of dogma.

German dogmas do, however, exist. They are dogmatic about the need for degrees and certification as proof of your skill and qualification, almost to the point of absurdity by American standards. They have a school system that determines your future career path by age 13.  Unless you are accepted into “gymnasium” at age 13 you are unlikely to be allowed to attend university after you graduate from one of the other two main school types (a fourth, Sonderschule, is for special education). German cultural mores that have nothing to do with morality, such as eating etiquette and always using last names unless invited to use first names, reflect a staunch traditionalism, but where Christian or religious virtues are concerned, the German culture (but not all Germans) leans toward a libertinism.

It may be that the Germans have adopted libertinism, social democracy, and internationalism as an unconscious and reactionary defense against their own aggressive nature. But for all that, German dominance and the emergence of the “German” European Union are all happening seemingly of their own accord.

The Battle for Mariupol Could Spark Greater Land War

Bill Collier- The battle for Mariupol has been replayed at least four times since 1941, and it’s about to start into round 5. The players have changed and so has the dynamic. In October of 1941 it was the Germans taking it from the Soviets, in 1943 it was the Soviets taking it from the Germans, in June of 2014 it was a ragtag army of separatists trying to take it from the Ukrainian “Azov Battallion”, in January of 2015 it was a mix of covert Russian and separatist trying again to take it, and now it would appear that Russian Armored and Artillery Regiments are the real force with so-called “New Russian” separatists, and Cosacks, playing a support role.

What we see happening now is a total commitment of “serious manpower”, as many as 20,000 Russian troops, entering the region near Mariupol with the intention of seizing this strategic city and rolling up the Ukrainian defenders throughout the eastern half of their country. Depsite pledges by the US and Britain to “guarantee” Ukrainian territory if the Ukrainians gave up nuclear arms (which they did), so far neither the US nor NATO are forthcoming with decisive help. Negotiations and rhetoric and declared cease-fires have failed to change the situation on the ground.

Russia wants to create a land bridge to the Crimea, which it seized by a coup de main, extended from Russia through eastern Ukraine. Therefore, Mariupol, a coastal city and strategic rail and road hub, is vital to achieving that aim. It is alleged that the Pro-Russian separatist leaders are mere puppets of Moskow, which is using a classic Soviet tactic to soften an enemy with fifth column sympathizers acting as a front and using proxy fighters as well as their own troops in a covert role while claiming non-involvement.

But Ukraine’s government is hearing none of it, declaring unofficially that they are basically “at war” with Russia. A cease-fire set to take effect on February 15th has not even truly begun as Russian army shells continue to fall on Ukrain positions and as it appears the Russian Army are staging for a large-scale attack “within weeks.” This attack is feared to be brutal in its intent and could embroil the 500,000 civilians who live in Mariupol in the fighting. Currently, the figvhting is only around 5 miles from the city along a front line begining at Shyrokine on the Azov Sea and snaking due northeast to to the town of Krasnoarmyisk.

It is estimated by Ukrainian forces on the ground that a large force of 50,000 Russian troops and over 200 tanks are massing across the border near Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast- of these, however, as many as 20,000 with 36 tanks and 26 Grad Missile systems were alleged to have already crossed in Ukrainian territory.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are digging in with some describing scenes reminiscent of World War One and are rushing combat troops to both Mariupol and Kharkiv, another city thought to be in Russia’s sights. There is no doubt to the intelligent observer that Russian forces are in fact attacking the Ukrainians and shelling continues despite the fact the Ukrainian forces have been ordered to refrain fro returning fire.

A typical Russian tactic is to infiltrate “civilians” into a target area who are really special operations teams or partisan guerillas to cause chaos in the enemy rear prior to an attack, and with that in mind Ukrainian forces have round up over 100 persons thought to be members of such covert attack cells. The government of Ukraine has claimed that many captured “rebels” have Russian military ID’s.

It is not known how large the Ukrainian force is in the area, but it may include 30,000 fighters with only a third of the armor deployed by the Russians. It is not known how high the morale of Ukrainian troops is, it is being lowered by the stand-down order and because they are getting news that all requests by the Ukraine to the US and NATO for defensive arms have so far fallen on deaf ears.

But a full-on land war in which the Ukrainians and Russians formally declare war, forcing the US and NATO to decide whether to aid the Ukraine of not, is in the offing. If it is not answered, some analysts predict, as a worse case scenario we could see the unravelling of NATO as an effective body because various countries will determine that US and NATO backing can guarantee nothing.

This will cause a virtual arms race and a re-alignment of powers, centered on Poland perhaps, who see that unless they arm themselves heavily they have no guarantee against further Russian aggression. It will also continue to undermine US prestige and the value of American diplomacy. For instance, Washington’s insistence on Israeli restraint regarding Iran is predicated on the same kind of guarantee once given to Ukraine. Other US allies, like Egypt and the Gulf States, will draw their own conclusions as well.

It is argued that a failure to demonstrate to Russia NOW that full on war will be met with a like response is what is making full on war increasingly possible.