April 23, 2026

Predictive Analysis

Analysis: Tools Of The Trade – Apples And Oranges

As First-World States Amp Up Their High Tech, The Opposition Sticks To Basics

An F-35 Lightning II prepares to take off, Luke Air Force Base, AZ – USAF photo by Sr Airman Devante Williams; Public Domain

Over the last hundred years or so, uncountable amounts of money have been spent by various countries, to develop ever more sophisticated weapons and vehicles, many times, almost literally reinventing the wheel. The latest gargantuan expenditures that come to mind are the M1 Abrams tank, the Zumwalt destroyer and the F-35b airplane.

And yet, the most ubiquitous, most-used, most flexible and most cherished series of combat vehicles in the world is the humble Toyota Hilux, and its close cousin, the Toyota Land Cruiser, used around the world by all manner of armed forces, regular and otherwise.

Iranian soldiers with a BGM-71 TOW missile during the Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988

Why this should be so, is of great discomfort to both defense companies and armies, around the world. The reason defense companies are worried is that the civilian Toyota vehicles are “good enough” for most combat vehicle applications. They are simple, rugged, durable, easy to understand and operate, and – most importantly – cheap.

Roll-on/roll-off ferry terminal at Queenscliff, Victoria, 1993.

On the military side, these are also concerns, but the military – by necessity – goes deeper: the very ubiquitous nature of the vehicles (driven by market, not military forces), in addition to their built-in ruggedness, makes it supremely difficult to both identify and attrit an asymmetric enemy’s mobile infrastructure without attacking civilian targets at the same time.

Mongol horseman, 14th Century

It has long been known that light vehicles equate to light cavalry. Unfortunately, historically, conventional militaries have always had a distinctly difficult time dealing with forces that can master the techniques of light cavalry campaigns.

U.S. Marines and guide in search of bandits. Haiti, circa 1919.

Similarly, it has long been recognized that simple, robust weapons systems give unconventional forces near-parity of effectiveness at the “boots on the ground” level of combat. As long ago as 1940, in the US Marine Corps – in its “Small Wars Manual”  – recognized that as technology developed, and lightweight, fully automatic weapons spread, the tactics the manual outlined would be rendered obsolete.

AK-74 assault rifle

Modern small arms development has essentially hit a plateau in the years since 1946. Once the move to self-loading rifles was complete, what remained were alterations to ergonomics and attachments. The weapons could be massed produced with a very high degree of mechanical simplicity built in…This, of course, resulted in the development of the near-universal AK-series of assault rifles in the hands of both urban and rural guerrilla forces, as well as the later tribal militias, to say nothing of its continued use by regular armed forces throughout the world.

Adding to the difficulty for conventional armies is the widespread deployment of highly effective, yet almost laughable uncomplicated, heavy support weapons at the squad level, primarily the RPG-7 and the General Purpose Machine Gun (GPMG).

An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier fires an RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenade launcher, Helmand province, Afghanistan, May 20, 2013. USMC photo.

The RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenade launcher, while becoming less capable against frontline combat vehicle armor, is still more than capable against light vehicles, light or hasty fortifications, and even some aircraft. A robust and simple design, the RPG-7 is a valuable weapon in any force’s arsenal, and is widely available.

PKM Machine Gun

Likewise, the Soviet-designed PKM GPMG is another simple, robust and highly capable weapon system, easily a match for anything produced by the West.

Of course, except for the Toyota pickup trucks, the two things that the above weapons all have in common is that they are both products of Cold War-era Soviet Army design bureaus, and were handed out in vast numbers to many armies and guerrilla groups as the Cold War ground on.

And yet, their effects remain.

Adding to the problem is the impact of remotely piloted drone technology, especially drones modified to drop small munitions on target. Coupled to cheap and reliable internet access and radio technology, as well as the wide dissemination of both automated and manual secure encryption methods, armies trying to chase down irregular, terrorist and/or guerrilla forces today have issues far outside the scope of previous generations.

The challenge for both conventional forces, defense companies, and perhaps especially the political leadership of First World powers, frankly, is to find a way to equip the large security forces necessary to ensure a counterbalance to terrorist groups that operate like multinational corporations, while not cutting off their noses to spite their faces, by bankrupting the countries they are trying to sell their products to.

Little Gray Men — Or, How An Improbable Series Of Events Unhinged The World

 

 

Recently, the New York Times, working with Pulitzer Prize-nominated journalist Rukmini Callimachi, spent fifteen months unpacking a trove of over fifteen thousand internal documents of the so-called “Islamic State“, painstakingly assembled over the course of a five trips to Iraq over the span of a year.

 

Members of the 9th Iraqi Army Division fire a heavy machine gun at ISIS positions near Al Tarab, Iraq, March 17, 2017 (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Jason Hull)

The documents are fascinating, intriguing…and alarming…as they expose, in excruciating detail, the internal operations of a group of modern barbarians, along with the ‘why’ and the ‘how’ by which they were able sustain a functioning state, under continuous attack, largely cut off from external aid.

 

Some of the 12,000 Iraqi Yazidi refugees at Newroz camp in Al-Hassakah province, north eastern Syria after fleeing Islamic State militants, 13 August 2014.

Despite its barbaric nihilism – including public mass beheadings and a return to open-air (and openly televised) slave markets – the terrorist state at one point controlled a swath of territory the size of Great Britain, as well as a population estimated at nearly 12 million people, not to mention parts of Libya, Nigeria and the Philippines coming under their nominal control, via various local groups swearing allegiance to the group. As fascinating as the article – as well as its attendant photo archive and supplementary articles – may be, it is even more fascinating for what it does not say, namely:

How did this happen?

One of the curious blind spots of the Times’ reporting, is that they already had the answer to this question. As early as August of 2014, the Times quite accurately reported that ISIL relied heavily on former officers – and civil officials – of deposed and executed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s forces and the Iraqi Ba’ath Party structure.

Many of these men – most of them dedicated career officers and officials – were summarily ejected from the Iraqi governmental and military structure through the staggering incompetence of the Coalition Provisioning Authority in the aftermath of the Coalition invasion of Iraq, which toppled the dictator from power. The Coalition’s ill-conceived Order Number 2 effectively destroyed the internal structure of Iraq at a stroke, leading to chaos within the country, and directly to the uprising of the Sunni demographic minority, who had formed the majority of the Iraqi state’s bureaucracy for its entire existence. Democratic structures are always messy to implement, and in a culture with little to no concept of the principles involved, the chances of abuse is heightened, especially when the demographic majority has been systematically abused by a controlling minority.

 

Abandoned Iraqi Army equipment, Mosul, 2014

Iraq was no different, and once George W. Bush, left office in early 2009, to be replaced by the ineffectual and diffident Barack Obama, who was eager to fulfill his campaign promise to get the United States out of Iraq, no matter what, as soon as possible, old hatreds that had been suppressed by the heavy presence of Coalition forces immediately began to regain ground.

 

ISIL forces were not terribly energetic in their capture of Mosul – Iraq’s “second city” – in 2014, and by all rights, outnumbered by as much as 15-to-1, should have been speedily annihilated by the Iraqi 2nd and 3rd Infantry divisions…which didn’t happen, due to the systematic reprisals by the Shia-dominated government of Nouri al-Maliki against the mostly-Sunni officer and NCO corps’ that had been carefully built by US and Coalition military advisor teams for almost ten years, all of which went largely unaddressed by President Obama until it was nearly too late. That Iraq remained intact at all, and that ISIL’s offensive first stalled, then fizzled, was due to the restraint showed by – of all entities – Iran.

 

Iranian soldiers help unload a U.S. Air Force C-130 on the airfield at Kerman, Iran, Dec. 28, 2003

 

Iran – ancient Persia – has been in the “war business” for a very long time, and saw the trap they were being enticed into from a mile away…and declined to bite. The Iranian mullahs (who learned their lesson after nearly being toppled during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988) asked their professional soldiers – the Artesh – what to do. The Artesh, knowing their job very well, told the mullahs to avoid sending in the Artesh at all costs, and to send – at most – the Revolutionary Guard Corps’Quds Force” (their version of “special forces“). Their reasoning was as simple as it was true: Sending in the Artesh to try and copy the American- and British-led invasion of the country a decade before would be seen by the Sunni Muslim world as an invasion by infidels, and that is was better to let ISIL strangle itself. (The Freedomist has covered some of this elsewhere.)

However – a lack of Western grand strategies aside – with the conquest of Mosul, it suddenly became apparent that ISIL was not the typical terror group. While the vast bulk of their non-Iraqi or -Syrian recruits were in their mid-20’s and well-educated, but mostly work-inexperienced and largely ignorant of the Quran or the intricacies of Sharia law, and most of their in-country recruits tended to be indifferently educated and had little experience of the wider world, the group seemed able to “magically” set up and run a functioning state almost literally overnight.

How was such a thing possible? What happened, to cause this?

 

Iraqi Republican Guard after pushing Iranian forces from the Al-Faw peninsula in 1988

In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion, and the disenfranchisement of the bulk of the Iraqi government bureaucrats and military officers by Order Number 2, it is clear that a number of mid-level (captains and majors, primarily) military officers – and possibly some civil servants – fled into Syria. While Syria was not an active member of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” then entrenched in neighboring Iraq, they largely kept their Ba’athist cousins in check. In such an environment, with nothing else to do, and with undoubted access to some of the many secret bank accounts squirreled away by Saddam and his henchmen, such men would have done what all of their professional training told them to do: assess what had happened to get them to that place, and plan for what to do to regain some semblance of their former power and self-respect.

 

Freed from the constraints of the ruthless, sadistic, paranoid and militarily-incompetent Saddam and his henchmen, these professionally trained officers would have conducted a multi-leveled interdisciplinary review, that examined and assessed Iraq’s defeats of the preceding twenty-odd years, the reasons for the United States’ and its allies repeated victories over them, the state of their finances, what immediately-available technology and supplies those funds could purchase, and how to more effectively employ those assets…there were just two problems these men could not overcome, given the regime philosophy they had served: a lack of privates, and the lack of a figurehead.

As mid-level officers, these men were largely faceless and unknown – the stereotypical “gray man“. But, they could not implement their plans without an army of “spear-carriers” and a leader…which is the point where fate, in the form of the “Arab Spring“, intervened.

Anti-riot police in central Damascus, Jan. 16, 2012

As the region’s more restrictive states began to explode with internal protests in December of 2010, it quickly became apparent that the United States was involved, at least at some level. As protests began to intensify in Syria in early 2011, the former Iraqi officers in Syria undoubtedly began to wonder if this was their moment. While certainly grateful for the sanctuary provided by Bashar al-Assad, they would also have chafed at the restrictions he kept them under.

 

Syrian rebels in combat against government forces in Qaboun, Damascus, 2017.

As early as August, 2011 what would become ISIL – after relentless pounding by US and Coalition forces, that also saw the death of its founder, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the rise of his successor, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi – began withdrawing into western Iraq…and began filtering cadre into Syria to help form what would become the al-Nusra Front. This is likely the point, in 2013, where the two groups first mingled, given the al-Nusra/ISIL group’s rapid growth in effectiveness, its apparent professionalism and its reputed large numbers of “foreign” fighters.

By January of 2014, it was too late: a well-motivated and suddenly professional ISIL, reinforced by dissident al-Nusra troops and the bulk of the Russian-speaking Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar (JMA) group, roared out of Aleppo and Raqqa, and into history…

 

Syrian rebels of Jaych al-Nasr (ASL) in the Idleb region, January 23, 2018.

 

…But in their wake, came the “little grey men“: military bureaucrats and administrators – professional, worldly and well-educated – appeared hot on the heels of the assault units, rounding up the local populace, for either recruitment, co-opting or “ethnic cleansing“. They swiftly established licensing and tax collection regimens, “bootstrapped” an economy from scratch, and started to put services back into operation, i.e., literally “turning the lights back on” and repairing water supply and treatment systems…all while creating a receiving/inventory/reissue system for loot taken from the homes and businesses of non-Sunni’s (or those Sunni’s who opposed them) who had been massacred or driven out of their homes, to be reissued on a “ration book“-style system to fighters arriving in the new state, along with a property redistribution system for housing their new troops.

As Ms. Callimachi points out in her Times article, the administrative and logistical professionalism of these men was breathtaking in its effects: ISIL operations within its territory were almost entirely financed by its internal taxation policies. While there was clear assistance from outside, the lesson Ms. Callimachi presents is stark: a non-state group can, given enough forethought by its leadership – or its middle managers – as well as a lack of interference in day-to-day operations by inexperienced leaders, and effective military training at even a low level, can self-sustain itself in ways we have rarely seen, previously.

While none of this was ever exactly “secret” information, a mythology has grown up, which states that “military and governmental professionalism” implied the requirement for a vast, complex and expensive infrastructure to function. In fact, it is the systems and processes that make a professional infrastructure, long before money changes hands, “brick-and-mortar” facilities are built, and equipment is purchased. None of this is surprising, as most of the systems and processes are little different from Western Cold War-era nuclear attack recovery plans…The Islamic State simply started at that point, using frameworks of established systems and processes gleaned from publicly-available government websites on the internet, rather than developing a wholly-new process from scratch.

And if ISIL can do it, any group that operates to at least their level can do it, as well.

Someone has opened Pandora’s box, again…and the future bodes ill for it.

 

 

Playing Their Gender Language Games Will Kill Your Liberty

The Social Construct Gender Game is a Language War Against The Right to the Pursuit of Happiness

Making gender a social construct is a way to reinforce the notion that the individual exists in the social.  The paradigm to be replaced is that the social emerges from the minds of individuals.  This is the underlying assumption of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, that the government derives its power from the consent of the individuals, as individuals (not as identity groups).

Government itself emerges from the minds of individuals.

By making gender a social construct, it creates a political factionalism in everyday language itself wherever an adoption of this new social reality is coerced on others, as it already has been in America. Dialectically, the alternative-gendered expression is considered individual expression, but it requires social coerced-conformity to be realized.

Imagine creating conditions in which people can lose their means to make a living for merely refusing to adopt to the top-down created and enforced new language standards, breaking the binary constructs overnight, non-consensually, using violence and economic terrorism to do it.

That’s what has already been happening in America today.

The social construct gender game is a philosophical game of sophistry designed to create a new justification for coercion based on the preservation and advancement of the social, where all individuals exist, outside the mind, inside the social institutions managed by experts that are paid by a handful of the most powerful at the top of another pyramid of top-down, monopolized power.

The goal is not to liberate the non-gendered or gender-fluid.  The goal is to change the right to rule standards of the land from an old to a new one.

The American Republic standard for rule assumes boundaries between the state and individual that preserves an individual’s right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness (as further expressed in the first ten amendments, the Bill of Rights).

So long as the state operates within those boundaries (which the state constantly violates, to be sure), the people will grant the state right to rule.

The gender-bending standard is paving the way for the DNC model, one that presumes the appointed, recognized, state-approved, corporate-sponsored experts should be the new definers of happiness, the social mission as defined by these same experts.

The masses vote in cities where the votes are counted twice and the real work of engineering is done as needed by the regulators now unshackled by the pesky limitations placed on it by the Bill of Rights.  Without the Bill of Rights as a construct in the hearts of Americans, the state would surely disregard it openly overnight.

This social construct gender language game is just one of the many language wars the opponents to individual liberty and pursuit of happiness are currently engaged in, but it has become the tip of the spear of their most effective, to date, assault on the hearts of Americans.

Well-meaning humans seeking to follow a core American value, freedom of expression, are being led to support coerced expression in the name of the very value they believe they are supporting.

So long as the Bill of Rights and the Declaration of Independence create a sense of entitlement in the hearts of Americans, no matter their race, creed, gender, sexual expression, expression, etc., the state, while it will always violate its own standards, will do so with much less regularity and open visibility than it would the moment the standards die in the hearts of Americans, and they lose their sense of entitlement.

That sense of entitlement is this, the government is we the people, and the state is merely the representative of the people.  In practice, it’s hardly true, but in spirit, it most assuredly is true.  It is so true that the American, no matter their individual expression or identity, when in a legal pinch, will say at some point, I KNOW MY RIGHTS!!  More often than not, if the American is right, state authority capitulates.

It’s why Americans regularly tell government workers, including cops, I PAY YOUR SALARY!  YOU WORK FOR ME!  It’s that spirit that’s under assault wherever non-binary constructs, gender-fluid constructs, social construct gender language games, are being coerced on others.

It does not matter whether it’s the corporation firing individuals for not using people’s preferred pronouns or the state (though it is even more alarming when an American government chooses to so overtly violate the constitutional rights of its employers, we the people).  They are both forcing a new language game on people against their will.  The results will not be pretty.

Already, people are willingly facing being fired rather than concede to such perverse language game.  The next phase is coming through the courts, as lawsuits become the test for the reality of the Constitution in American Jurisprudence.

I wish I could speak confidently here, but alas, there is more than enough reason to be concerned, but not dismayed.  It will take a year or two for the courts to reveal whether they will hold the line on the social construct gender language game or not.  During that time, I suggest you build where you are, paths to sustainable flourishing at the household level.  Hopefully, you will connect to others doing similar things, and sustainably flourishing communities will emerge.

If it begins to look like the courts have fallen, the reality of power will soon set in atop the hill in DC.  The people are sustainably flourishing outside of your centralized hierarchies of social control.  Laws without the power to enforce them, corporate terms of use without the people to agree to them are no power at all.

America emerged from a happenstance of circumstances that created the necessity of a government that would not be compelled to challenge human action beyond what it could realistically manage.  We who are now citizens should count ourselves privileged and entitled compared to the rest of the world.

However, this gift was given to this land, let us not destroy it in the name of free expression, thus ending free expression for all, across so many more language game parameters to be added to the first one that becomes the new standard of rule in the land

The Biden Blaxit Crisis Exposing the DNC’s Achilles Heel, Its Tokenism

Isaiah 32:7
As for the scoundrel—his devices are evil; he plans wicked schemes to ruin the poor with lying words, even when the plea of the needy is right.

Editor- Paul G Collier

Introduction- The Tactic of Hate, Fear, and False Hope

A sudden resignation of 21 black Americans from the Biden administration is producing a lot of head scratches from the Democrats, but the consequences of the strategy of amplified hate, fear, and false hope has left the party in power naked, even to its own most loyal members.

The Democrats long ago chose fear, hate, and false hope to attempt to destroy American individual liberty and replace it with soviet-styled centralism that claimed its authority from the existential crisis of widespread racism, bigotry, sexism, and non-heterophobia.  60 plus years into their project, the Democrats now have real proof of the spectacular fail of their project, and the people being targeted to hate so much that they fear enough to surrender their American freedoms are starting to catch on.

While Biden rose to power on the back of a mass mailer election and a promise to basically end the evil invented by the whites, the heterosexuals, the males, and the cis-gendered, it also made the reality of the empty promises of the anti-liberty, anti-American left all the more obvious.  There is no longer a promise to offer IF the Democrats seize total control of the state and the nation, for they have the power, and, even under Trump, they mostly have for the last 10 years, thanks mostly to the mergers of mega corps, making it easier for a few in a few boardrooms to control the cultural and social signals of an entire nation of 300 plus million souls.

The Tokens Chaffe at Tokenism

“We’re here and we’re doing a lot of work but we’re not decision-makers and there’s no real path towards becoming decision-makers,” one current staffer told the outlet. “There is no real feedback and there’s no clear path to any kind of promotions.”  – from NYPost

The ongoing Democrat Party narrative is that blacks, ‘people of color’ are unfairly held back by rampant white supremacism.  The only way these people can succeed in life is if whites step down from their advantaged positions and lift up blacks in their place.

This is a great idea when the policy is being enforced among the poor and middle class whites, but hardly one that will be faithfully followed by the whites that are primarily responsible for spreading and enforcing this anti-American ideology, where character and integrity of the individual is an afterthought and worth is determined by a biological caste system now morphing into an ideological one.

Blacks in the Democrat Party are being conditioned to expect results, success, advancement, based solely on their biology.  They’re being told they have special knowledge that will free the country from its sinful past.  They’re being willingly conditioned to accept the idea that, unless the person mentoring them is black, they can’t hope to advance in society.  They need blackness to function in a pluralistic government, apparently.

From Politico:
They described an operation in which mentorship is hard to come by and opportunity to move up the ranks of a tight-knit operation is exceptionally rare.

“We’re here and we’re doing a lot of work but we’re not decision-makers and there’s no real path towards becoming decision-makers,” said one of the current Black White House officials. “There is no real feedback and there’s no clear path to any kind of promotions.”

Blacks that answered the call to liberate the nation from white supremacism expected the blueblood ‘antiracists’ to reflect the full content of the ‘character’ their decrees reflected.  What they most likely found was something else, a clique of rich white children in most significant positions of power who had no intention of being one of those poor or middle class whites that would step down and remove their power so that white supremacism might finally die and the world be cured of the disease of evil.

The Real White Supremacism

They discovered they were tokens, not humans, in the Democrat Party, the party of dialectical White Supremacism that drives the POC and the non-Heterosexuals to assault, especially the rising power of the middle class in a time when technology is creating small-scale sustainable thriving.

The wealthy white Democrat Party activist is assured the consequences of their anti-white agenda won’t fall back on them, for their wealth insulates them from such corporate and state limitations, and Biden’s Democrat Party is dominated by these white supremacists, people who spread the myth that the white race is the most powerful race in the world.  The only way to stop this race that invented evil is to end the very concept of the white race altogether, and the rich white Democrats will be the allies, the enforcers of the code that allows blacks and gays to throw off the shackles of slavery, only to be wholly dependent on these same rich white allies to protect them against the vast unwashed whites still frothing for a return to a power they never actually had.

The disenfranchised blacks appear to be upset that they have not been given the promise the rich white Democrats delivered, a world that caters to their race and fetishes it above all others, a world in which your blackness makes you a de facto PhD on any topic that might come up.   The reality was they were merely tokens hired to insulate these same powerful white Democrats from their own racist, exploitive, discriminatory past, present, and future.

Predictability Analysis

Even as I write this, blacks are forming their own diverse identities, even within the Democrat Party itself.  These identities are increasingly unaligned with the oppressive police-state solutions of the Democrat Party.  As the consequences of the Democrat Party’s virtually seditious acts continue to be felt, more and more blacks, people of color, non-heterosexuals, will find the cost of being the fetish in society is a diminishment of real personal and community power, as the ‘disenfranchised’ become more and more dependent on the white-controlled centers of corporate and state power that exploits their real suffering for rich white controlled corporate and state institutions.

As black Americans learn the cost of believing they can’t function in society unless they have fellow blacks around them to mentor them (in a society that is only 14 percent black), they will become less and less monolithic, less and less controllable by the same party that once fought to keep them enslaved.  If we are to be America, we must become color-blind.  Until we do, you, black America, are not free.  If you want to end racism in America, you must first decide if you want to be one, and that means rejecting the Democrat Party and its Marxist-like racist, bigoted ways.

If character and integrity can only be seen in people that look like you, you have become the hate you fear, and this, I believe, is what black America is learning as more of the fruit of the policies of the racist, bigoted, anti-American party, the Democrat Party, come to plain light, unconcealable by the corporate and state powers that be, powers still controlled by rich white Democrats.

The War Next Time

 

 



 

The Hidden Conflict With The Potential To Shatter Global Trade

 

Beginnings

Since 2017, a war has been raging. This war has remained largely ignored in the world media, because, as wars go, this war has been rather “low-level”. As well, this war is the living example of an uncomfortable truth – that the so-called “Islamic State” is not dead, despite losing its major base areas in Iraq and Syria.

Flag of the Islamic State

While the IS was significantly damaged in the period of 2015-2019, their remnants continue to operate in Syria and Iraq, but also expanded throughout the world, as far afield as Libya, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan and the Philippines, bringing under their wing such diverse groups as Abu Saayif, Boko Haram and dissidents from Al Qaeda. They actively compete with other jihadist groups for recruits and money. Most important to this story, however, is the “Islamic State – Central Africa Province (IS-CAP or ISCAP)“.

Map of the Great Rift Valley in Africa and the Middle East

ISCAP emerged around 2018, with two wings, the first operating in the Central African states of the “Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)”  and Uganda under the leadership of Musa Baluku, and in Mozambique, led by one Abu Yasir Hassan.

Following the same broad strategy as the rest of IS’s offshoots (extreme violence and torture, brutal oppression of women, use of child soldiers, etc.), ISCAP initially appeared to be focusing on destabilizing the Great Rift Valley region of Central Africa. Long unstable and prone to large-scale violence, ISCAP’s entry into this region of staggering mineral and agricultural wealth initially went rather unnoticed — Central Africa was not seen as having significant potential for the IS, and while of some concern, ISCAP was relegated to the figurative “back burner”, as there were much more immediate terrorism problems in Africa, like “Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)” and Boko Haram.

But then…Mozambique exploded. Somewhat literally.

 

Map of the region of Cabo Delgado-Mozambique with Kirimba archipelago

Cabo Delgado Province is one of only two provinces in Mozambique with a majority-Muslim population (the other being neighboring Niassa Province). Both of these northern-most provinces are badly underdeveloped, economically speaking, and are grindingly poor as a result. Things seemed to be looking up, however, as the American energy company Anadarko Petroleum (now a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum) decided to launch a major expansion onshore of its previously discovered offshore liquid natural gas (LNG) fields. This would create a large number of well-paying jobs, directly, and create “knock-on” industries to support development of the region.

The future looked bright.

But then, beginning on 5 October 2017, a predawn raid was staged on police stations in the seaside town of Mocímboa da Praia that killed some seventeen people, including two police officers and a community leader. The attack quickly fell apart, and nearly half the raid force was captured. Interrogations of the prisoners indicated that the Al Qaeda-affiliated Al Shabaab terror group from Somalia (also known as “Ansar al-Sunna”) had suborned some disgruntled ex-police officers to train local recruits.

Not being known for having a delicate touch, the Mozambican response was rather heavy-handed, with widespread arrests on questionable evidence, and the closing of several mosques in the provincial capitol of Pemba for “suspected connections” with “Islamic fundamentalism“. A subsequent attack on the village of Mitumbate reportedly killed some fifty people, including women and children, although it remains unclear as to what, if any, connection the casualties may have had to the insurgents.

Attacks continues apace through the remainder of 2017, and continued throughout 2018 and into 2019. Increasing numbers of people were kidnapped or murdered outright, houses, businesses and government buildings were burned, and civilians began fleeing the area, in numbers that would eventually displace an estimated 400,000 people by 2020, resulting in panicked calls to the international community for help by various national, international and non-governmental agencies.

 

ISCAP Arrives

At some point, likely in late-2018 or early-2019, ISCAP seems to have arrived in Cabo Delgado, and either displaced or absorbed the Al Qaeda affiliate. It is important to understand the implications of this event. Where Al Qaeda-aligned groups at that time rarely left the terrorist model to engage in actual guerrilla warfare tactics, the Islamic State was almost the exact reverse – while certainly not shying away from terrorist attacks, the IS usually focuses on trying to act as an “actual” army.

This difference quickly became apparent.

On June 4, 2019, “Islamist” forces attacked a Mozambican Army outpost in the town of Mitopy, reportedly killing or wounding some 30 people, and capturing equipment. Attacks continued to escalate, as Russia began delivering military equipment to the Mozambique government (Russia, recall, had intevened in Syria in 2015 to shore up Bashar Al Assad’s government against relentless IS offensives), and the “Wagner Group“, the PMC aligned to the Russian government. This did not go well…for the Russian contractors. Despite some initial successes, the ISCAP forces repeatedly hit back at least as hard as they were being attacked.

(One of the ongoing frustrations in this conflict is the lack of press freedom, which dramatically limits the range of detail available.)

This activity continued through the end of 2019, when a break in ISCAP’s offensive seems to have occurred. The cautious optimism engendered by the break was shattered when ISCAP came roaring out of the forests, in a Syria-style offensive, on March 23, 2020. ISCAP forces stormed Mocímboa da Praia and captured the town, destroying government buildings, looting banks…and then distributing much of the loot to locals, in an apparent propaganda campaign. ISCAP withdrew from the town the next day, and launched a wide-ranging offensive across the province. Worryingly for military observers at the time, this particular attack was a coordinated land-sea assault. This period also saw South African  special forces units deployed to the country.

The see-saw series of skirmishes continued for the next five months, with Mozambique government forces claiming to have killed hundreds of insurgents, even as attacks increased. ISCAP forces seem to have focused on Mocímboa da Praia in particular; the reason for this focus would not become apparent until August of 2020.

Beginning on August 5th, ISCAP launched a ferocious assault that focused on Mocímboa da Praia. after skillfully isolating the town, ISCAP forces hammered their way into the town. Mozambican forces, although supported by helicopters of the the South African PMC “Dyck Advisory Group (DAG)“, were either overrun and destroyed or captured, with the survivors fleeing the town by sea in commandeered boats. ISCAP forces engaged the retreating boats from the shore, sinking a French-built HSI-32 “interceptor” vessel with fire from RPG-7‘s. After the town’s capture, ISCAP declared it to be their “capitol”, and began a series of amphibious raids throughout the neighboring Quirimbas Islands, driving local island inhabitants ashore as refugees.

Even for regular, professional militaries, these were not “simple” operations.

ISCAP would hold Mocímboa da Praia for a full year, until August of 2021, following the intervention of Malawian and Rwandan army units deployed to the country to help stem the tide. However, before pushing ISCAP out of Mocímboa da Praia, ISCAP attempted to capture the border town and port of Palma in a 12-day long battle, a murderous fight that – while ultimately beaten back by Mozambian forces – left the city largely destroyed, suspending oil and gas company operations in the area, and killing numerous civlians, both Mozambicans and foreigners.

 

This is no rag-tag bunch of disorganized youths. This is a trained and determined force that has captured and held one town and is now sustaining a battle for a very strategic center.

—Unnamed intelligence analyst about the battle

 

Although, as of February of 2022, ISCAP seems to have been battered back into the forests, there have been multi-month-long lulls in the fighting before. This fight is not over.

Meanwhile, though, as Mozambique burned, other things were happening…..

 

 

 

 

 

Two Unconnected Events & A Brutal Attack Make Three

 

While all the fighting was happening in Mozambique, the rest of the world lumbered onward, as it always does. Amid all of the other things going on in the military and security spheres of that time, there occurred yet another massive, bloody attack on civilians…

…In Sri Lanka.

 

Religion in Sri Lanka, 2012; Source: Government of Sri Lanka

Bloodstained statue of Risen Jesus after renovation of 2019 Sri Lanka Easter bombings at St. Sebastian’s Church, Katuwapitiya

On Easter Sunday, April 21, 2019, suicide bombers struck three Christian churches and three luxury hotels in the city of Coloumbo in coordinated attacks between 8:25am and 9:20am, local time; two smaller explosions occurred later in the day in other parts of the city. In total, 261 people were killed and over 500 were injured.

Based on intelligence intercepts provided by Indian Intelligence agencies, Sri Lankan officials were pointed at the “National Thowheeth Jama’ath (National Monotheism Organisation)“, or “NJT“, a radical (but minor) Jihadist group that had aligned itself to the Islamic State; while IS would claim responsibility for the attacks, based on several members appearing in a video pledging loyalty to the group, these supposed connections are tenuous, at best.

Sri Lanka’s population is less than 10% Muslim, inclusive of several different sects, which seriously calls into question how much support the NJT – a hyper-radical, Sunni-based sect – would have had. Another problem is that Sri Lanka is simply not on IS’s radar; it is well outside IS operational theaters, and committing more than “lip service” resources to an operational group there would be wasted effort, when the IS itself was under continuous attack elsewhere, and was hemorrhaging money, fighters, trainers and resources trying to defend its core territories.

While Sri Lanka is absolutely no stranger to suicide bombing attacks, having fought a blood-soaked 26-year war against the “Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)“; that group, though, was wiped out quite decisively in 2009. The LTTE, however, could in hindsight be viewed as “Islamic State, Beta“, in that it created a functional government from scratch, with very little external support, as well as a functional military establishment, including an air force and a navy.

Bookmark that thought. We’ll come back to it.

 

A Colossal Blunder Rocks A City

As these kinds of things usually do, the Sri Lankan attacks quickly faded from the news, and the world shuffled onwards. Then, as ISCAP was preparing to launch its offensive against Mocímboa da Praia in August of 2020, a blunder of staggering incompetence happened.

At roughly 5:45pm local time, fire crews were summoned to Warehouse 12 at the Port of Beirut, Lebanon, on a report of a warehouse fire. The first crew to arrive on-scene immediately called for backup — the blazing warehouse was massively engulfed, and completely out of control. Some twenty minutes later, at 6:07pm local time, the dockside warehouse exploded in a titanic blast, registering an estimated 3.3 on the Richter Scale. The blast was heard in Cyprus and Israel, some 150 miles/240km distant, and was felt as far away as parts of Europe. Estimates of the blast force ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 tons of TNT, equivalent to a small nuclear warhead.

 

Port of Beirut, Lebanon. Before (Left, 7/30/2020) and after (R) comparison showing blast damage from the August 4,2020 explosion (circled area)

 

Despite early attempts by various terrorist groups, both inside and outside of Lebanon, to claiming responsibility for the attack, it was quickly determined to have been the result of a level of bureaucratic lethargy and incompetence, coupled to irresponsible work practices on a scale that boggles the imagination.

In November of 2013, the Moldovan-flagged cargo shipMV Rhosus‘, carrying 2,750 tonnes (3,030 short tons) of ammonium nitrate bound for Mozambique (this was well before the current war there), was seized by the Port of Beirut’s Port state control officials for, according to Lloyd’s List, some US$100,000 in unpaid bills. Ammonium nitrate, while used primarily as and agricultural fertilizer, is also a significant component in explosives. As the ‘MV Rhosus‘ was deemed unseaworthy by Port state control, the ship was condemned and her cargo was unloaded in February of 2014 and stored in Warehouse 12. The crew, all either Ukrainian or Russian, were allowed to return home on compassionate grounds, as the ship owner had reportedly gone bankrupt, and was unable to either repair the ship or pay the fines it had accrued.

The ammonium nitrate cargo then sat in Warehouse 12 for the next six years, as Lebanese officialdom tepidly argued over what to do with it. During this time, in a staggering display of irresponsibility, a massive load of fireworks were stored in a section of the warehouse complex, right next to the bays holding the ammonium nitrate. Inevitably, a construction crew working on a loading door with a welding torch apparently set the fireworks alight, and as the blaze spread, the heat and pressure eventually touched off the ammonium nitrate…..

Over 200 people are known to have been killed in the blast of August 4th, and over 7,000 wounded, collapsing local medical capacity. Somewhere in the ballpark of 300,000 people were left homeless. Damages exceeded US$15 billion, a staggering sum for a small country with a wobbly economy. Numerous terro groups in the region tried to claim responsibility in the aftermath, in the end it was a disaster brought on simply by monumental levels of incompetence.

Aerial photo of the explosion in West, Texas, taken several days after blast (4/22/2013)

Texas City disaster. Parking lot 1/4 of a mile away from the explosion

This wasn’t the first time something like this had happened…and it certainly wasn’t the last…

 

 

 

 

 

 

It Doesn’t Fit Like That

Contrary to popular belief, ocean-going vessels — even in the modern day — run aground all the time. No one is perfect. However, sometimes, all the stars will align in the worst possible way.

And on March 24, 2021, they did so.

Although developed in one form or another over the centuries, “shipping containers” as a mode of cargo shipment did not become truly widespread until the mid-1950’s, when Malcolm McLean and Keith Tantlinger perfected the “twistlock” mechanism, creating the modern “intermodal container“. At that point, real standardization became possible.

Today, contanerization is the primary mode of moving “non-bulk” freight loads via ship; somewhere near 90% of all non-bulk freight moving by ship moves in intermodal containers. The “Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU)” is the one of the standards for measuring the capacity of a container ship. The more than 9,000 vessels of this type (per UNCTAD, 2010) are typically massive vessels, with truly massive carrying capacities.

 

Container Ship ‘Ever Given’ stuck in the Suez Canal, Egypt, March 24th, 2021

The “Ever Given“, with a capacity of over 20,000 TEUs (if loaded onto trucks, those trucks (all 10,000 of them) – if lined up nose-to-tail, all at once – would stretch from Downtown Dallas, TX to north of Durant, OK, a distance of over 100mi/160km), was transiting the Suez Canal that March day, bound for the port of Rotterdam. Although the precise details of the incident remain a bone of contention, the “Ever Given” ended up jammed hard into the banks of the canal, in one of the worst possible stretches of the canal. As a result, at least 300 cargo vessels – including five other container ships of similar size, 41 bulk carriers and 24 crude oil tankers – were stuck waiting at either end of the canal for six days.

The only alternative – the Cape Route – adds over 3,000 nautical miles to a run from Singapore to Rotterdam; some shippers were already shifting to this route when the grounding occurred, as the Suez Canal Authority has been raising transit rates in recent years, and with the collapse of Somali piracy in 2013, the Cape has been increasingly seen as a better option.

 

“Ita quomodo huc venisti?” (So, how did we get here?)

So — What point are we making, here? While the foregoing are certainly interesting points for study, they have little, if anything, to do with each other on the surface. However, there is a time-bomb lurking beneath the surface. The following is an example of “predictive analytics.” The key points are as follows:

  • It is a given, that the “Islamic State” (IS) sees itself as the enemy of the West. It is also a given that IS operatives around the world very much watch the news. They are fully aware, at the very least, of every event outlined above. Believing otherwise is simply not a valid world-view.
  • Given the IS’ proclivities for grandiose attacks, and given the fact that they have been heavily battered – being on their third leader in four years – IS is increasingly desperate to stage a major attack to regain its former prestige in the world.
  • Mozambique as a theater of operations for the IS – or Al Qaeda, for that matter – makes little sense at this point, if taken as a circumstance by itself. While only roughly three days via boat from Somalia at 10 knots (11.5mph/18.5kph), the rest of the factors are out of whack: the Muslim population in the country is tiny; the country as a whole is economically depressed; language is a serious issue; and the nation’s infrastucture is rudimentary, at best. These are all significant negatives to IS’ normal mode of operation…And yet — someone is expending a significant amount of resources and manpower to secure an Islamist foothold in the country.
  • Locally in Cabo Delgado, the Islamist insurgents are known as “Al Shabaab“…and, significantly, as “Somalis“. Despite insistance from certain quarters that there is no known connection between the “Ansar Al-Sunna/Al Shabaab” group in Mozambique and the similarly-named group in Somalia, the connection from the operational area in question is too significant to ignore.
  • If a connection does exist, that bodes ill all by itself, as it indicates a potential thaw in relations between Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, as the two have been, at the very least, “not friends” since the IS separated from the Al Qaeda orbit in 2014.
  • Then, there is the curious case of the Easter, 2019 bombings in Sri Lanka. For the reasons outlined above, there was little to be gained by these attacks. While they certainly demonstrated the potential reach and influence of the IS, it gained them very little, either tactically or strategically.
  • Finally, the seeming outlier points are the explosion in Beirut and the stranding of the “Ever Given”. Both were absolutely accidents, and not connected to any known terror group.

There are too many coincidences in the above points for the total picture to be some random splatter of a bizarre avant-garde art movement. Something is missing.

 

The Corporal and the Sea Pigeons

The problem in dealing with all “non-state actors” is that they are able to remain largely anonymous, until they surface publicly and act. There are so many possibilities, they get lost in the shuffle.

 

Somali presidential candidate (2021) Hussein Farah Aidid

On of these actors is, potentially, a man named Hussein Farrah Aidid.

Hussein, a younger son of Somali warlord Mohammed Farrah Aidid, emigrated to the United States in 1979, graduating from Covina High School, in Covina, California in 1981. After working for various firms for a few years while studying civil engineering, Hussein enlisted in the United States Marine Corps Reverse, and after basic training, was posted to Battery B, 1st Battalion, 14th Marines, based at the Marine reserve training center in Pico Rivera, California. He would eventually rise to the rank of Corporal.

 

U.S. Marine artillerymen set up their 155 mm M198 howitzer…20 January 1991 during Operation Desert Storm

Hussein was activated with the rest of his unit, and served in Operation Desert Storm in 1990-1991. Later, as Operation Restore Hope got underway in his native country in late 1992, Hussein was activated again, being assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 9th Marines, as an interpreter, being the only person in the Marine Corps at that time who spoke any Somali dialect, and to provide a link to his father. He would serve in this capacity only briefly, being withdrawn after three weeks, once other Somali volunteers from the United States (mostly college students) volunteered to return. The Marine Corps was well aware of Hussein’s family background, and as his father was a prominent warlord in the country’s worsening civil war, following the ouster of dicator Siad Barre, they wanted no possibility of a conflict of interest arising for the young Marine. As a result, he was not present in Somalia when US forces launched Operation Gothic Serpent in an attempt to arrest some of his father’s lieutenants, in what became known as the “Battle of Mogadishu“.

At some point between 1993 and 1996, Hussein was named as his father’s ‘heir apparent’ to the leadership of Habir Gidir clan. When his father died during surgery after being shot during a battle with rival forces, Hussein Farrah Aidid advised his reserve unit that he would be traveling abroad for a number of months, and would miss his next several drills. Traveling to Somalia, he assumed the leadership of his clan, and initially continued his father’s policies of armed confrontation with opposition forces. However, this did not last — by 1997, Hussein turned to negotiation instead of armed conflict, and actively advocated working with not only the international community, but the United States directly.

Although he would later be named to several cabinet-level posts in Somalia’s shaky transitional government, Hussein would not simply be forced out of the Somali government structure, but out of the country itself — by 2007, Hussein Farrah Aidid had been forced into exile in Eritrea, making accusations that Ethiopia was guilty of “genocide” in its intervention into Somalia and calling for the withdrawal of its forces from the country. Ethiopia stated that it intervened “reluctantly”, but with the support of the United States and the African Union (AU), and it did withdraw its forces as soon as AU troops entered the country.

This placed Aidid in the position of backing calls by the Islamist “Islamic Courts Union” group for “jihad” against Ethiopia, a call which was condemned even by Sharia-law courts within Somalia, a move that ultimately strengthened the Al Shabaab group.

Although staying well under the radar in the years since his exile, confidential intelligence sources (speaking on condition of anonymity) reveal that a potential link to Hussein Farrah Aidid is being seriously investigated. The probability of his involvement in southern Africa is considered to be high, although absolute proof has not been uncovered.

The reasons for this are as simple as “the enemy of my enemy is my friend“. While seeming to be nominally friendly to the Ethiopian government by aiding it in its ongoing conflict with the Tigray people, Eritrea is out for revenge against the Tigray, with whom it fought a sharp war in 1998-2000. There are indications that militia’s loyal to the younger Aidid are taking part in Eritrean operations, at the very least in supporting capacities.

The thinking behind the notion of Hussien Farrah Aidid siding with Islamist groups lays in the fact that he appears to have valued his personal connections to both the United States and its Marine Corps highly, but those connections have done him little good over the years, as his attempts at diplomacy and conciliation have left him in exile. While many people would regard him as a “mere corporal” (and likely make allusions to a certain Austrian of similar rank), it is important to remember that one of the core principles of leadership is the willingness to delegate – the catch being, that a leader still needs to give guidance on what to look for, in order for the subordinate to get started.

Hussein Aidid possesses exactly those abilities. In a direct sense while he, himself, was almost certainly never involved in any form of higher-level strategic planning, he would know what to look for, if he wanted to set up a training program for his loyalists. As well, being exiled to Eritrea freed him, in a sense, from focusing on his father’s form of “desert power“, and shifting to the other major form of Somali warfare…

Sea piracy.

 

The ability to move troops, equipment and supplies by sea is a huge challenge over any significant distance…but, if a person – or a staff – were able to think in those terms, the oceans of the world provide a nearly-uncontested avenue for movement.

Which brings us to the next puzzle piece: the Sea Pigeons.

When Sri Lanka was deep in its war against the Tamil Tigers, the Tigers maintained a naval force that conducted suicide and interdiction attacks against Sri Lankan naval and merchant vessels throughout the long war. These “Sea Tigers“, however, had another asset.

The so-called “Sea Pigeons” were a kind of “ghost fleet” of ocean-going merchant vessels, usually operating with “flexible” papers. The ships of this merchant fleet carried arms and equipment to resupply the LTTE directly, but also operated around the world, carrying legitimate cargo’s for profits like any other shipping company, profits that were a major source of funding to the LTTE. While at least ten of these ships were destroyed by the Sri Lankan Navy by 2009, no one is entirely certain how many ocean-going vessels the LTTE operated…And, while the remnants of the LTTE have struggled to keep the glimmer of resistance alive since the destruction of the main movement in May of 2009, there has been little word of any remaining Sea Pigeons.

Which brings us back to the Easter Bombings of 2019, from above.

IF Hussein Farrah Aidid was looking for a way to strike a blow that could greatly elevate his status within both the radical Islamist and African spheres…and, IF he were in contact with surviving Sea Pigeons, HOW could he entice those former guerrillas – after surviving underground for a decade – to aid him?

Getting the Islamic State to stage a significant attack in Sri Lanka – as a “sign of good faith” – could be viewed as a “down payment” to gain access to the remaining Sea Pigeon fleet.

But to what end?

 

The Threat

The international shipping and trade network is the critical artery of the modern Western world. And it is anchored on two locations: The Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal.

 

The panamax ship MSC Poh Lin exiting the Miraflores locks, March 2013

Along with the Suez Canal, discussed previously, the Panama Canal is the other major choke point of international shipping, as it removed the need to use the highly dangerous route around South America‘s Cape Horn. A relatively minor accident in the Suez Canal, solved in six days, nearly unhinged world trade.

What would a pair of attacks, against both canals simultaneously, do? Especially if those attacks did not simply close the routes for a few days, but for months, if not years? But – how would such attacks play out?

 

In the case of Suez, simply limpet mining or scuttling one or two very large vessels in the right place[s] would be sufficient, as the ships and their cargoes would have to be fully cleared before traffic could resume.

Panama, however, is more difficult. The lock system that makes up the canal is not really susceptible to scuttling, because of the canal’s layout. A ship scuttling inside a lock, while certainly a disaster, would be relatively easily to resolve.

But — what about a ship carrying three or four thousand tones of ammonium nitrate “suddenly” exploding in the Panama Canal?

The explosion of the ammonium nitrate cargo in the Port of Beirut left a blast crater over 400ft/124m in diameter, and some 140ft/43m deep. What effect would a larger explosion have, in the tight confines of a lock system like Panama’s? At the very least, the Panama Canal would cease operations for months, if not a full year…

…And, coupled to a similar closure of Suez, world trade would be forced to make long and dangerous detours…

So — Why would this benefit the Islamic State, encouraging it to expend significant resources in an attempt to establish a base in northern Mozambique, well outside their normal operational zones?

Because, if Suez were to be closed, the shipping detour around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope has to run right past Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region.

 

Location of Mayotte and neighboring countries in the Mozambique Channel

 

But — If the above is true, what would the benefit be for the surviving Sea Pigeons to help Hussein Farrah Aidid and the Islamic State? Simply put: Revenge.

The United States – as well as India – aided the Sri Lankan Navy in attacking the Sea Tiger/Sea Pigeon layover areas with satellite imagery showing those assembly area’s locations and layouts. Both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia directly supplied the Sri Lankan government with military weapons, equipment, vehicles and aircraft for its final, apocalyptic campaigns against the LTTE. Great Britain was largely responsible for the confused and messy end of Colonialism in Sri Lanka, and was directly responsible for the ethinc divisions that ultimately led to the island’s civil war. France and the rest of the major nations of the world eagerly lined up to proscribe and hunt down the remainder of the LTTE outside of Sri Lanka, and actively worked to dismantle the group’s international financing network…And every one of these states would be critically damaged by an attack of this nature.

If any non-religious group has reason to want to destroy the West, it is the remnants of the LTTE.

 

And Pass The Hookah, Please

One final point to consider: Turkey.

Turkey, as we pointed out in April, was deeply involved in the creation and expansion of the Islamic State’s original form. However, once Erdogan’s plan to launch a religious war against Iran failed, he dropped the Islamic State like a hot potato, leaving it to die on the vine…except that, like troublesome weeds, it refused to die quietly.

It Islamic State learned from this. And the primary lesson it learned, was that it was just as much of a pawn in international “realpolitik” as any other group. And – like their institutional ancestors, Al Qaeda, in the aftermath of carrying the CIA’s water in expelling the Soviet’s from Afghanistan – they refused to simply go home.

Turkey Opens Largest Foreign Military Base in Mogadishu, 2017

Money is money, after all — and everyone’s money is good, if it buys you ammunition.

But Turkey has gone a step further, expanding its reach into Africa, but especially into Somalia and Libya where it is actively working with other major powers against Islamist militant groups, even as it plays multiple sides in Ethiopia. An attack that closed the Suez Canal would do as much, if not more, damage to the Turkish economy as it would to the wider world.

Again — the Islamic State is capable of assembling all of the above points into a strategic picture; the Freedomist is not saying anything not publicly-available. Additionally, even if the educated guesses about Aidid and the Sea Pigeons are completely wrong, if we can work through this, so can the Islamic State. In fact, any competent intelligence analyst can see it, if they do the work…as many have.

The question is: Will those the analysts work for, listen to them?

Given the increasing levels of hysteria in the world, this seems unlikely.

Time will tell. The troops are waiting.

 

 

 



 

The Deep State’s Failure Of Will And The Next War

The recent increase in violence in Afghanistan, following the complete withdrawal of US and other foreign troops in August of 2021 (also known as The Fall of Saigon: The Desert Edition”), is blowing up in Pakistan’s face, as the Taliban increasingly cut deals internally with former Afghan National Army troops to form their “Grand Army” (which they are in desperate need of), and their support to Pakistan’s nemesis, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terror group has increased, leading to a rash of border clashes with Pakistani security forces. The Pakistani military establishment certainly feels this way, to the point of expressing their discontent in rather strong fashion.

None of this is surprising to anyone with any knowledge of the region’s recent history. Once everything “came off the rails” in 1978, strangling an Afghan renaissance in its crib, the country has descended into a seemingly bottomless pit of violence and terror. What is clear is that, US interference and interventions aside, Zbigniew Brzezinski’sGrand Chessboard” is about to bear its next bitter harvest.

Of course, neither his children, nor those of people like him, are typically the ones who have to fight these wars.

Yours do.

 

 

More information at:

 

Quid Accidit? The Nightmare of Qutb and Golitsyn

 

 

 

 

 



 

…Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned…

 

This is a bizarre tale. It is the story of two men, four events, and how the world – after three-quarters of a century – has come to the brink of total war, again…a war that threatens the fabric of civilization, itself.

First, we’ll talk about a martyr, Sayyid Qutb.

Qutb was born in rural Egypt, in 1906. By any rational measure, Qutb should have been an inspiring and moving success story. Deeply religious, Qutb held a burning passion for education, yet throughout his life, firmly held that religious studies should be taught only in conjunction with modern, secular studies. In a time where few of his neighbors could afford to send their children to school, Qutb slowly and painfully built up a large – for his village – library of twenty-five books, and forced his way through his own shyness to try and teach other village children (boys and girls, alike) what he had learned.

 

Egyptian village of Keneh, c.1918. CCA/2.5

 

This passionate thirst for knowledge and education eventually bore fruit, and Qutb became a teacher, working for the Ministry of Public Instruction, in 1933. Six years later, he took a minor post with the Ministry of Education, itself. Qutb soon became an author in his own right, publishing several novels, and helped several other authors launch their own careers, including that of noted novelist Naguib Mahfouz. Qutb’s first major theoretical work of religious social criticism, Al-‘adala al-Ijtima’iyya fi-l-Islam (“Social Justice in Islam”), was published in 1949.

In 1948, the Ministry of Education sent Qutb to the United States, to study the American educational system. The event changed Qutb’s life.

Culture shock” is not a good description of Qutb’s reaction to the late-1940’s United States — “horror” would probably be more accurate.

 

Sodom and Gomorrah afire by Jacob de Wet II, 1680. Public Domain.

 

While Egypt was Westernizing slowly, Qutb was – to use the Americanism – “a real square”: women had their place (well-treated, but very much under the care of their husbands and fathers) but he also found Americans unhealthily devoted to the most inane things: devotion to materialism paled in Qutb’s mind, to the American obsessions with lawn maintenance and jazz music; the open racism prevalent at the time likely didn’t help. It would not be a stretch to say that Qutb viewed the United States as something in the same category as the Biblical Sodom and Gomorrah, or Babylon. The experience bred in him a horror and hatred of Western culture, and began his slide towards what became Radical Islam.

Upon his return from the United States, Qutb would publish his experiences in “The America That I Have Seen.” He resigned his post at the Education Ministry, and joined the Muslim Brotherhood, swiftly rising through its ranks, and quickly became one of its leading intellectual lights.

Qutb and the Muslim Brotherhood initially welcomed Gamal Abdel Nasser‘s coup d’état against the Egyptian monarchy in 1952, but quickly broke with him when it became obvious that Nasser had no intention of establishing an Islamic state in Egypt. There followed a predictable pattern of plots, prison, torture and radicalization, followed by execution by hanging, in 1966, that made Qutb into a martyr.

However, Qutb’s later, apocalyptic writings – from a brief period of freedom before his final arrest – have lived on, and have come to form the coals of the fire of modern radical Islamic thought.

 

 

Next, we’ll talk about a defector, Anatoly Golitsyn, CBE.

Anatoly Golitsyn was an officer, specifically a Major, in the KGB, the Soviet Union’s dreaded intelligence service of the Soviet Union. In 1961, Golitsyn defected with his wife and daughter from Helsinki, Finland, and was spirited to the United States, where he was interviewed at length by the CIA. His defection caused an immediate shock wave within the KGB, generating a series of cables to Soviet embassies around the world, with instructions on how to mitigate the possible damage from his defection.

 

 

Golitsyn has always had a controversial reputation in the intelligence community. On the one hand, the British general, Sir John Hackett, at one time the commander of the British Army of the Rhine, described Golitsyn as the most valuable defector to have ever reached the West; on the other hand, the official historian of Britain’s MI5 intelligence service described his assessments as questionable, even while acknowledging that his raw intelligence was solid.

The primary reason for this dichotomy was a remarkable claim that Golitsyn made during his debriefings, where he claimed the existence of a long range plan, begun by “elements” within the KGB, to undermine the Western states, specifically the United States, a a plan which would result in an ultimate victory for worldwide Soviet Communism. This plan would revolve around a “seeming” Soviet and Communist collapse on a worldwide scale, that would lull the West into apathy, while allowing the Communist leading states of Russia and the People’s Republic of China to rebuild themselves, bringing about a Communist victory when the West collapsed under the strain. Golitsyn revealed this idea publicly in his 1984 book, New Lies For Old, and later, in 1995’s The Perestroika Deception.

 

Vladimir Putin (President of Russia), 2018. Public Domain, CCA/4.0

 

As remarkable as this story was, sounding as it does like the plot of a Robert Ludlum novel, historian Mark Riebling claimed in his book Wedge – The Secret War between the FBI and CIA (Knopf, 1994) that of 194 predictions in New Lies For Old, some 139 had been proven true by 1993, nine were clearly wrong, and the remaining 46 were ‘not soon falsifiable’.

One part of this complicated plot was the infiltration and undermining of Western institutions, such as the Catholic Church, and centers of higher learning. As was proven repeatedly throughout the Soviet Era, idealistic – but impressionable – young people could be turned into rabid Communists by having “agents of influence” prey on their inherent good natures, by convincing them that Marxist-Leninist thinking was the best – and only – way to improve the lives of the downtrodden. This process was outlined in 1954, in the exposé “School of Darkness: The Record of a Life and of a Conflict Between Two Faiths“, by Dr. Bella V. Dodd, at one time a leader of the Communist Party of America (CPUSA). The specific mechanism used in this undermining process is a concept called “strategical diversion“, as outlined to the public by another KGB defector, Yuri Bezmenov, a process which seeks to alter the perception of reality through what we would now term “information overload“.

KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov’s warning to America (1984) (Full interview HERE)

 

One clear result of this infiltration is the marked reluctance of Western academia to discuss the murderous nature of the Soviet state, not simply under the reign of Josef Stalin, but continuing all the way through the supposed collapse of the Soviet state itself, even while highlighting foibles of western countries that pale in comparison to the wholesale slaughter inflicted by the Communist world.

Another obvious aspect of this plan was the undermining of US influence and image within the Third World. This brings us to the four events of this analysis.

 

 

The “Baker” explosion, part of Operation Crossroads, a nuclear weapon test by the United States military at Bikini Atoll, Micronesia, 1946. DoD Photo. Public Domain.

 

Unlike what many people may be thinking at this point, the list of events does not begin with Vietnam. In the 1950’s and 60’s, the United States as seen as near-invincible. Although the Korean War had ended in a stalemate, and the US and USSR were engaged in tit-for-tat one-upsmanship around the world, no one – least of all the Soviet Union – seriously considered that war at any realistic level with the USA was even remotely winnable. That said, as the 1960’s wore on, it became apparent to anyone paying attention that the United States was stumbling. This was to be expected: no country is ever going to have it all go their way, all the time, and the United States was not immune, despite a c.150-year track record of winning, both internally and externally. No, the triggers in this story begin in a very different place:

Iran, 1978.

 

Soviet sphere of influence, Iran, 1946. CCA/4.0

 

From this start, there would be a swift series of seemingly unconnected blows over the following twenty-four months, that would combine to thoroughly undermine the West, and raise the specter of world war, once again, albeit of a very different type…before the old ways appeared to have returned.

Iran – ancient Persia – had spent the 20th Century unevenly trying to Westernize itself. But, the road was rocky. The ruling Qajar Dynasty was overthrown in 1925 by army office Reza Pahlavi, who soon made himself Shah at bayonet-point, and founded the House of Pahlavi. However, endemic corruption, increasing paranoia and very poor choices in foreign policy in the run-up to World War 2 led to the invasion of Iran by British and Soviet forces in 1941. Reza I was deposed, and his young son, Reza II, was installed as a puppet. As the United States’ “Lend-Lease” policy began to shift into high gear, Iran became a vital avenue of supply to a beleaguered Soviet Union.

 

Official portrait of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, 1973. Public Domain.

 

Following World War 2, Reza II worked to repair his house’s reputation, and began a program of modernization. However, the Soviet penetration of Iran had immeasurably strengthened the Tudeh Party, the Iranian Communist Party. This group helped to foment the unrest of 1952-53, which ultimately resulted in the United States overthrowing a democratically-elected government, in favor of an autocratic monarchy.

In the aftermath of Operation Ajax, Reza II worked hard to modernize and and Westernize Iran. Ultimately, the Shah turned into Iran into a bastion of Western military power directly abutting the Soviet Union’s border.

In doing so, he came into conflict with hardline Shi’ite clerics, ultimately led by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. However, it is increasingly apparent that the Tudeh Party began infiltrating the Shi’ite religious establishment in Iran, in a manner similar to that used in the United States.

 

Ayatollah Khomeini returns to Iran after 14 years exile on February 1, 1979. Photo by Sajed.ir

 

Exiled to Turkey in 1965 (where he stayed in the home of a Colonel in Turkish military intelligence), Khomeini moved to the Shia holy city of Najaf, Iraq, where he would remain until October of 1978, when he was expelled on the direct orders of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Khomeini had by then assumed the leadership of anti-Shah sentiment in Iran, following the death “under mysterious circumstances” of the previous acknowledged leader, the revolutionary sociologist and historian Dr. Ali Shariati in a Southampton hospital in 1977.

Iran had become increasingly unstable in the preceding five years, so much so that the Shah – ill with terminal cancer – was completely unable to deal with the unrest. As well, the United States appeared utterly incapable of aiding one of its most important allies in the Middle East. With Khomeini’s expulsion from Iraq, the situation escalated, until the Shah and his family “went on vacation” at the end of January, 1979. Khomeini returned in triumph on the first of February, and officially declared the end of the monarchy and the creation of an “Islamic republic” on the eleventh. The increasingly downward spiral within Iran led directly to an open break with the United States, with the seizure of the US embassy on November 4th.

The appearance of helplessness in its inability to save what appeared to be one of its strongest allies severely – possibly irreparably – damaged the image of the United States as a strong bulwark of democracy in the world. Abandoning South Vietnam to its fate after a bruising, 15-year long war could be written off as a stumble. Likewise, the fall of the Somoza regime in Nicaragua could be viewed as inevitable. But, like the shattering of the public perception of the character of the Vietnam War following the release of the so-called “Pentagon Papers“, the fall of the Shah and the radicalization of Iran came as a brutal shock to many in the West, but especially to many in America. Indeed, the fall of the Shah  was the prime reason behind the complete defeat of of President Jimmy Carter’s reelection bid.

But then, a curious thing happened.

Nearly forgotten by the Western public, some two weeks after the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran, a group of men stormed the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on November 20, 1979.

 

Saudi soldiers wearing gas masks, and armed with G3 battle rifles, fight their way into the Qaboo Underground beneath the Grand Mosque of Mecca, 1979. Public Domain, per “Saudi Arabian Law Royal Decree No: M/41”

 

The bloody, two-week long siege of the Grand Mosque – Islam’s holiest shrine – seriously undermined the ruling House of Saud, in ways not fully understood at the time. However, within the Islamic world, the stamping out of a “false Mahdi“, and the frantic attempts to blame the Khomeini regime for the attack backfired, as Khomeini (and the KGB) swiftly capitalized on the attack by blaming it on the United States. The resulting uproar caused demonstrations and riots throughout the Muslim world, and led to the destruction by mobs of the US embassies in Libya and Pakistan.

Although the militants were rooted out, and the leader and 67 of his surviving men were beheaded for the seizure, the real aftermath was that the Saudi monarchy was forced to yield more and more authority to the country’s conservative Ulama.

Then, a mere twenty days after the retaking of the Grand Mosque – on December 24th – the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan.

 

Soldiers ride aboard a Soviet BMD airborne combat vehicle, 1986. DoD photo. Public Domain.

 

This event was widely regarded as the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union; in fact, it was frequently referred to as the “Soviet Union’s Vietnam“. The United States – feeling pushed to the proverbial wall – was bound to act eventually, the actions of certain individuals notwithstanding. The Soviet system, by then already imploding, could not handle the strain. They would withdraw, clearly beaten, in 1989, as the Berlin Wall came down, and the Warsaw Pact collapsed.

But, there is one final act to this blood-soaked play: The Iran-Iraq War.

 

An aerial view of the Iranian frigate IS Sahand (74) burning on 18 April 1988, after being attacked by aircraft of U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier USS Enterprise (CVN-65), during Operation Praying Mantis. Photo by US Navy. Public Domain.

 

Iraq invaded Revolutionary Iran on September 22, 1980, sparking an eight-year long bloodbath that was a very loud echo of World War 1‘s trench warfare, as Iraqi and Iranian forces battered each other senseless. This war would the first widespread use of ballistic missiles in war, the return of large-scale chemical warfare, the near-sinking of a US destroyer, and the US Navy fighting its first real fleet action since WW2, which also saw its first combat use of anti-ship missiles, resulting in the effective destruction of Iran’s navy. This would lead to the exposure of shady backroom deals by the United States that effectively prolonged the war, further weakening and tarnishing its image, even as it seemingly “won” the Cold War.

 

Iranian Troops in Forward Trenches during Iran Iraq War. CCA/4.0

 

Over the next twelve years, the United States seemed to steadily decline in influence: it proved unable to capitalize on its defeat of Saddam’s Iraq in 1990; its abandonment of Sunni Kurds and Shi’te Iraqi’s in their attempt to overthrow Saddam seriously damaged the image of the Bush Administration, and contributed to the defeat of his reelection bid in 1992. His successor, William Jefferson Clinton, appeared incapable of dealing with even minor opponents, nor capable of effectively stopping massacres in Europe and worse ones in Africa, as the United Nations stood mutely by.

Both times.

 


 

…To review, we have a sequence of four events, spanning some twenty-four months – three of the events happening in the space of a mere eight weeks – that are clearly related to, and feed off of each other, yet which have no real reason to exist separately:

  • The implosion of the Pahlavi regime, while perhaps inevitable, was noticeably accelerated by the expulsion of Khomeini from Iraq by Saddam Hussein, a known and acknowledged ally of the Soviet state. That implosion and collapse led, swiftly and directly, to the imposition of a brutal regime almost irretrievably hostile to the United States, a regime certainly heavily infiltrated by the Iranian Communist Party.
  • While no hard evidence exists pointing to Soviet or Iranian Revolutionary involvement with the seizure of the Grand Mosque, both Iranian and KGB sources were surprisingly swift to put out believable stories blaming the United States for a very unique and specific event…which, in the KGB’s case, is even stranger, given what would happen eight weeks after the Grand Mosque was retaken by Saudi forces.
  • The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was an act of blinding insanity: it critically damaged the Soviet Union’s image throughout the Muslim world, and virtually guaranteed a steady stream of volunteers to battle “godless Communist dogs” — America might be the “Great Satan“, as Khomeini continually railed, but they were at least nominally Christian, and thus, “People of the Book“. Likewise, there could be no rational view of the invasion by the Western powers as anything but a direct threat to Pakistan, another US ally in upheaval, already facing the regional titan of India – then, a some-time ally of the Soviets – and now facing the might of the Soviet Union hard against their northern border. There was no scenario in which the US could not respond as they ultimately did, arming and training the Afghan Mujaheddin…and waiting in the wings, were the students of Sayyid Qutb. Qutb’s final, apocalyptic tracts, written after the duress of imprisonment and torture, had nowhere to go, and were withering on their poisoned vine…until saved by the revolutionary fervor of an “honest holy war,” against an avowed enemy of all religion.
  • Some nine months later, Saddam Hussein invaded Iran. While much has been made of Soviet attempts at courting both sides, in reality the long, bloody war worked doubly in the Soviets’ favor: Revolutionary Iran was bled white, losing nearly an entire generation of its young men in the fighting, while its attempts to spread its revolution were severely curtailed with the wrecking of its economy and the utter destruction of its navy. Meanwhile, Saddam’s Iraq was badly weakened, and in his weakened state, he could be counted on to act foolishly, out of desperation, when his neighbors refused to give him leeway with Iraq’s debts incurred fighting revolutionary Iran.

 

 

USAF aircraft of the 4th Fighter Wing (F-16, F-15C and F-15E) fly over Kuwaiti oil fires, set by the retreating Iraqi army during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. USAF Photo. Public Domain.

 

And all the while, the serpent birthed by the United States’ undermining of the Soviets in Afghanistan – Al Qaeda – grew and developed like the cancer that it is, ultimately rising on September 11th, 2001, to strike directly at the heart of the United States, sparking what has become a multi-decade war, rooted in the extremist ideals of “offensive jihad” of Sayyid Qutb

 


 

…Now, there is no reason to connect any of these disparate events – in the absence of Golitsyn’s conspiracy plan. If Golitsyn was wrong, then the events of the twenty-four month period of October 1978 to September 1980 are simply happenstance, nothing more than the Fickle Finger of Fate at work.

But — if Golitsyn is correct, the implications are dire.

As of this writing – early April of 2021 – the United States is more divided than at any time in its history since the Civil War. The US economy is effectively in freefall; actual unemployment is nearly 40%; the military has been exhausted and stretched to its limit, with its manning levels lower than at any point since 1940, even as wars and international tensions heat up. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and the continuing threats to the Baltic Republics, as well as the increasingly bellicose Chinese language over navigation in the South China Sea (to say nothing of North Korea), bodes ill for a country whose leader isn’t entirely sure who he’s shaking hands with.

This is not simply a matter of ironmongery; buying more “stuff” is not the problem. The United States military lacks the manpower – and has lacked it for almost two decades – and the training to face either former KGB officer Vladimir Putin’s Russia or Xi Jinping’s China. This is because of a conscious decision to not fully mobilize the nation to fight in the War on Terror. As well, the nature of the conflict in the Middle East that the US fought for nearly twenty years has led to an atrophying of capability to fight “main force” opponents, which Russia – and increasingly China – most certainly are…and, given fundamental – and objectively disastrous – policy changes just before 9/11, that is unlikely to change in the near-term.

The outlook for political leadership within the United States is bleak. With a bitterly divided electorate, trust in government leadership is at an all-time low. The political structure of the United States seems pathologically devoted to attacking everyone and everything at home, instead of watching the borders, and what lays beyond.

While that was a strategy that may have worked twenty-five years ago, it will not work now.

President Donald J. Trump was clearly a lightning rod of controversy for the course of his Presidency. It is clear that open mainstream media bias contributed to a negative public perception of him. In the aftermath of a questionable election, it is unclear whether the majority of the American people can be motivated to care enough to recall that national unity sometimes requires disciplined collective action, much less that disagreements do not need to be fundamental.

What is abundantly clear, however, is that the current incarnation of the Democrat Party is fundamentally incapable of dealing with the kaleidoscope of problems the nation faces, because their entire political existence is predicated on wooing an increasingly shrinking minority, while desperately trying to maintain control of the narrative via mediums that are rapidly becoming irrelevant.

While it may sound alarmist, there is no fallback position, now – if the United States is unable to “get its act together”, there is nowhere to fall back to. If there is no effective response to the rise of Russian and Chinese aggression, the world will go to a very dark place — and will stay there for a very, very long time.

 

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

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Multiple member states of the EU have decided to pool their resources to better track dissent within their nations. They plan on sharing their growing facial recognition databases with one another so as to eventually form an EU-wide database of faces with attached identities to assure that any dissenters within their lands that are caught on the myriad of surveillance cameras that continue to propagate throughout the lands can be identified and tracked down by authorities who can remove the offending member from society, for the good of the whole.

In the name of safety, once again, Europe turns to the tried and true method of failure, police state control, where the worst of the worst humans will find opportunity to inflict their masochistic bloodlust on the people the police state system alleges to be protecting. The worst of the worst will step forward to be the enforcers of this insecurity, deriving their pleasure and power from having people arrested, locked up, sometimes killed, for challenging the state’s ability to control the masses through terror.

Initially, the police state action will be used, is being used, primarily to target the bad guys we all agree are bad. Who wants to stop a child predator from being caught? Who doesn’t want to stop a terrorist from blowing up a school? But then the tools will be used to target leaders of oppositional thought, like climate change deniers, or people who believe men are men and women are women.

The tactic of inflicting police state terror on a people for the purpose of control of the many by the most powerful few is as old as civilization itself. Watching it unfold in Europe is almost a regular occurrence in world history, and we’re about to watch Europe go full authoritarian police state once again, in the name of safety, for the good of the whole.

EU countries want to pool photos in massive facial recog database : Futurology

From www.reddit.com
2022-04-11 15:29:07
/u/Sorin61
Excerpt:

 

For the past 15 years, police forces searching for criminals in Europe have been able to share fingerprints, DNA data, and details of vehicle owners with each other. If officials in France suspect someone they are looking for is in Spain, they can ask Spanish authorities to check fingerprints against their database. Now European lawmakers are set to include millions of photos of people’s faces in this system—and allow facial recognition to be used on an unprecedented scale.

The expansion of facial recognition across Europe is included in wider plans to “modernize” policing across the continent, and it comes under the Prüm II data-sharing proposals. The details were first announced in December, but criticism from European data regulators has gotten louder in recent weeks, as the full impact of the plans have been understood.

 

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Slapping the Mask Off – How American “Leftism” is Destroying Adult Civility

Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Oscars, and in so doing he ripped the mask off the American Billionaire Left, exposing the dangerous ideology by revealing through the reactions of “Americans” the division between the adults of America and the Peter Pan adults of the American Left, who clearly have rejected Bill or Rights values for authoritarian, police state values.

But this slap began in 2015, when the Punch a Nazi meme was born, the meme that reinforced the notion that human beings have a right to physically harm and threaten others for their beliefs and words alone.

As Donald J. Trump rose in 2015, many of my former friends started to separate from me either because I hadn’t gone far right or I hadn’t gone far left.  As Trump rose, he emboldened far right elements just through his success alone and his use of certain phrases that seem to come from this same far right.

America First was once genuinely a dog whistle for America for the Whites, though I have no doubt Trump was not intending it as a dog whistle for white supremacism.  Even if he wasn’t, the marketing decisions of the Trump campaign both emboldened the far left and the far right.

As white supremacists marched, Antifa was able to use the fear of the white man to gain recruits, mostly from suburban upper middle class white neighborhoods.  In the course of the great meme wars of 2015, the prevailing brutal expressions of both sides came in the form of dropping Communists from helicopters and punching Nazis.

Actual white supremacism hasn’t been popular among American whites since probably as far back as the 1970s.  There are far less isolated white communities than there were before the 70s, and since the 70s, the conglomeration of most of our major social institutions has accelerated so much that even where different races live in racially exclusive communities, they are still experiencing daily interactions with people that represent most of the major races of the world in the places they work and the places they shop.

The internet has only accelerated our humanizing of peoples regardless of their races as more and more humans in America find allegiances with others more based on their shared beliefs than their race.  The hysteria over white supremacism has been almost entirely ‘fake news,’ to borrow a phrase that also emerged in 2015.

In point of fact, too many humans that happen to be white or happen to be black, especially, find themselves involved in friendly, and even familial, ways with people of different races.  My family, for instance, in the last two generations, has absorbed DNA and created blood family ties with people of African descent, people of “Latin” descent, and people of Asian descent.  And my story is hardly unique among other previously white families that are now mixed-race families.

White Supremacism was the scapegoat the American Left needed to recruit white elites, children of well-off white parents, children who more than almost any other group of white children, most assuredly benefited significantly from white dominance (which wasn’t ever white dominance, but really only rich white family dominance).

The American Left itself is largely the product of agit prop created by the few corporations that control the vast majority of content Americans consume on a daily basis.  These corporations themselves are controlled by a small number of overwhelmingly white billionaire families that derived their wealth which created their initial power most assuredly from actual white supremacism.

It is not lost on us who pay attention that the American Left in its current form is wholly the manufactured product of the two classes of whites that most benefited from white supremacism, the billionaire class and the upper middle class.  The children of these families would write the books and become the activist celebrities of the anti-white movement that was really a dialectical white supremacist movement the whole time.

The American Left is the Dialectical KKK.

Black Americans appears to mostly have bought the sale, convinced that the white devil is poised to finish them off at any time, convinced mostly by the most powerful, the most beneficial of white supremacism, in America today.  It is as if the master has convinced them that the poor whites living next to them are the reason they are slaves, so the master whips them up in a frenzy to attack the poor whites, but lets them know that they can never defeat these white devils without the assistance, the aid, of the good whites, the slave masters themselves.  Also, they will have to stay on the plantation if they wish to stay safe from the murdering white devil.

Preventing the American people from building a race-irrelevant society based on an Individual-rights constitutional Republic is the main goal of this project, the American Left project, as engineered by the whites that benefited the most from actual racism.  The goal is to destroy the ability of the weak to stop the strong from controlling them.  The goal is to keep racism alive.

The bill of rights, when the state fears a people who assume these rights are theirs, is the bedrock of a society that can exchange value with one another without being compelled to like one another.  The American Left wants total control of hearts and minds, because their project demands it.  Without total control, their worldview can never come to be, as it is fundamentally anathema with peaceful coexistence.  It is a war ideology designed to produce more war, more conflict, more upheaval, more dependence on central power to protect you from the devils.

It is a psycho-social tool designed by white billionaires to corral the black communities and contain the poor white communities.  It is a psycho-social tool designed to murder the American republic and replace it with something that allows the white billionaire class to move with impunity, whose end goals have little to do with ending racism, bigotry, and hate.

It has everything to do with controlling competition, primarily from the white communities, who have to lose freedom to be controlled, but also to maintain control over the black communities, who can be granted a slight increase in freedoms while still being controlled.  The freedoms granted are bribes for the black community to continue to be the DNC’s source for votes without working for them, to become a massive voting block that will never hold you accountable.

In this backdrop, the events of February 28th, 2022, will go down in history as the beginning of the end of the Billionaire Left’s stranglehold on society and culture, and the beginning of the end of their stranglehold on black communities.

What happened on this date?  Will Smith announced to the world that American Leftist thought is entirely and wholly incompatible with basic humanity, and most assuredly with adult maturity.  Leftist thought at its core not only allows for individuals to violently assault human beings for words and beliefs alone, but actually demands it.  Failure to punch a Nazi could result in you being punched for being a Nazi.

Will Smith, during a live broadcast of the Academy Awards, walked on stage and slapped a comedian, Chris Rock, for daring to make a joke about his wife.  Immediately afterwards, the assaulter was the one offering comfort by other celebrities during a commercial break.  After the break, Will Smith incorporated Leftist emotion-speak to veil himself once again in the priest-king aura the Billionaire Left has worked so hard to cultivate with the celebrity class, the priest-cult spokesmodels of the DNC, the political vehicle of power of the Billionaire Left.

He wrapped himself up in “I am Jesus” language shortly after just slapping a comedian for making a joke about his wife.

The Academy, that bastion of nonce the world has come to know through such luminaries as Jeffrey Epstein and Harvey Weinstein, not only didn’t immediately have Will Smith removed for assaulting one of their chosen presenters, they went ahead and awarded him an Oscar for best actor.  His speech did just as much to undo the cultural and social power of billionaire leftism as his slap did.

The way the Leftists treated Will Smith after violating basic adult human civility standards that many children have already learned (sticks and stones break my bones, but words will never hurt me) further destroys their social and cultural standing among an increasing number of Americans, including black Americans, who are already beginning to peel away from the DNC machine in growing recognition of how they’ve been played by billionaires to do the bidding of billionaires by promising to end a devil that didn’t exist anywhere but inside these same billionaires the whole time.

Black America, the threatening call is coming from inside your own house, the billionaire left you so unconditionally support.

Will Smith claimed in his acceptance speech to be some sort of ambassador of love, a typical starting point for any leftist assault.  Afterwards, he then made himself the Moses of his people by declaring that he was a river to his people.  This is the second stage of a leftist assault.  The final stage is to identify the devil that is interfering with love and declaring your personal intention and confidence in ending hate by murdering the anti-love people.

Will Smith didn’t get to that final part of his speech, but he walked you up to the door of it, implying even that ‘my people’ need a rescuer, which means they must have an enemy they must be ‘protected from.’

First, the billionaire left appeals to your basic humanity by promising to be the ambassadors of love.  They’ll serenade you for a while at this point, gushing with declarations like “love wins” and “love doesn’t judge.”  Next, they’ll identify themselves somehow as the priests of this cult who have the secret (woke) power to finally conquer hate and let love win.  Finally, they’ll identify the enemy of love and proceed to push you to hate these enemies of love and commit to ending the existential threat to love by murdering, enslaving, and excommunicating from society these enemies of love.

It is a gnostic religion that requires human sacrifices.

When Will Smith slapped Chris Rock, the next day “Americans’ actually debated whether Smith did anything wrong or not.  I combed the local news sites, perhaps as much as a hundred, from around the country to get a gauge of the country, and what I found was disheartening and encouraging.  It was disheartening because the adults who seem to believe that physically harming others for beliefs and words is ok, (in other words, it’s ok to punch Nazis), was close to 50 percent of the responses I saw on these news sites’ posts.

This group, whether they realize it or not, wants to make sure that free speech doesn’t mean freedom from consequences (which means it’s not actually free speech).  They are seditionists at heart, for they reject the American Bill of Rights and replace it with Billionaire Leftism.

These local news outlets are all controlled by the same handful of Leftist billionaire corporations, and it showed, as the narratives that emerged in their stories fell along two lines, ‘what do you think of what happened’ or highlighting the traumatic and deadly disease of losing your hair.

The decision-makers in this cult must rightly have determined that attempting to build a narrative that legitimized Will Smith would nakedly reveal the true nature of these local news outlets that have devolved to become mere content marketing farms and agit prop distribution centers for the billionaire left.

It would reveal that the people writing your news are immature, violent, dangerous children who are very unsafe neighbors to have in your community.  If they weren’t, they’d soon be fired.

At the same time, they couldn’t speak directly against Will Smith, a fact that in and of itself should indict these local news outlets as it is as clear that Will Smith assaulted a man and acted like a spoiled brat petulant child, both during the slap and during the acceptance speech, something that is obvious to mature human adults not indoctrinated into a cult.

The goal here is to push that proverbial Overton window towards greater acceptance of punishing thought, something the billionaire class is desperate to gain control over, human thought, lest the innovators among the poors one day fell their Empires simply by no longer needing them.

What was encouraging, though, was how many Americans, of many races, in response to these adult children supporting slapping a man for saying a joke seemed to clearly see how obviously inviolate of adult civility this whole affair represents.  But more than that, I saw responses from people not mired in deep political and philosophical thought still clearly understand the existential risk to Americanism that this idea we can punish people for words and thoughts alone has become.

If you believe in punching Nazis, you are a seditionist against the American republic, which exists not in Washington but in the hearts of the real government, the American people (leftists not welcomed, for you are so violently opposed to it).

We are a nation that does not require a people to even like one another to exchange value with one another peacefully.  This is what civility is.  It’s not about politeness for politeness’ sake, or some sort of puritanical convention, or, as the billionaire left really wants you to believe, white supremacist constructs (which should tell you in and of itself how dangerous and how seditious to Americanism this billionaire leftism has become).

Civility enables people to mind their own business and still be able to buy a hotdog from a vendor or start an education learning how become a geneticist.  Without civility, open thought dies.  Without civility, the access to neutral truth dies.  We become the corrupt, through and through, like Russia, or China, both of which are experiencing massive collapses in key industries in large part thanks to the deep corruption that emerges from societies that punch Nazis, like the billionaire left wants you do.

As for the theory that this was a work, well, one cannot fully rule out that possibility.  If it were a work, and that were discovered, then this whole affair would dramatically accelerate the death of the billionaire left’s stranglehold on culture.

If I am correct in my assumptions, over the next few months you will begin to see more activity by billionaires that were either once part of the billionaire left or never were, that start to move towards supporting “American” standards like the right to free speech.  This will happen not because they all found the American Jesus in them, so to speak, but because they see the writing on the wall.  American Leftism is no longer a viable vehicle of power in America.

The other leftist billionaires might find themselves doubling down and going even harder, which will only work to the good of those of us who resist their corruption-enabling, cheat-enabling cult.

Will Smith smacked the mask of the American Billionaire Left, and it is never going back on again.

Leading up to the mass mailer Presidential non-election of 2020, Big Social got whiff of a damning news item that could potentially derail the Biden train, the Hunter Biden laptop.

In a story alleging that Hunter Biden’s laptop was retrieved from a computer repair shop, Big Social decided to first immediately slap a big fact check claim that the story was not true, was fake news, was Russian disinformation.

But the story kept going out, and it was gaining in credibility, so Big Social decided to slap the old misinformation tag on the whole affair, nuking the story and any creators that dared continue overtly reporting on the laptop in future posts.  Trust the science, kids.

Hunter Biden’s laptop revealed direct ties between Joe Biden and Hunter Biden in business deals in the Ukraine, among other damning items.  A post-election poll shows 17 percent of the Biden voters would not have voted for him if they thought the stories connected to the laptop were real.  Big Social had done its job, in alliance with the DNC, to assure a plausible victory in the mass mailer non-election of 2020.

But now that Big Social has been exposed, again, and again and again and again, I ask you this, what next?  Do we continue to turn to the state for relief from a problem that the state itself seems more than willing to exploit?  If we empower the state to check Big Social, do we think it will stop with merely restraining it the way we the people would wish it to be restrained?

This story to me speaks volumes about the futility of ragertainment in opposition to what the DNC and its megacorp allies are trying to do to change the very nature of governance in America.  Rather than spending our time and energy seeking relief from the state from our corporate overlords, perhaps it is time for us to disconnect from them and reconnect with us, we in America still willing to exchange value with anyone, whether we like them or not, willing to follow our Bill of Rights and our Constitutional standards.

Maybe it is time for us to start simply being Americans again, where we live and in what we do.  We will find one another, I have no doubt in that.  In a span of two weeks, using a network of letter carriers, English Peasants in 1381 set off a revolt that nearly toppled a King but for their fear of the very idea of King itself.  We don’t even need a revolt, we just need gardens and microfactories and shared open source tech that enables us to equip ourselves with the tools that create sustainable flourishing for our households and our communities, be they geographically proximal or distributed.

The less you need them, the more you can protect what you steward, the more free we all are.  America emerged from this reality of power, the people who lived in these lands were sustainably flourishing, at the household and community levels.  They could survive and thrive on their own.  The only power the state had over them was the gun and their idea of authority.

So the Constitutional Republic with Individual Rights ethics was born, in large part, I support, due to this reality of power.  Today, we have exciting opportunities to utilize technology and revisit old tech to create the same type of conditions the wanna-be-dictators of America faced in the summer of 1787, the reality of power that they needed the people far more than the people needed them, and the people knew it.

The NYT Doesn’t Care If You Know Big Tech Rigged Biden’s Election

From thefederalist.com
2022-03-21 10:20:00
Joy Pullmann
Excerpt:

 

On March 17, 2022, The New York Times stated it had verified the authenticity of a laptop and its data as belonging to the president’s son, Hunter Biden. This was the same laptop holding information that Twitter, Facebook, and other corporate media immediately suppressed when The New York Post, a right-leaning competitor of The New York Times, reported on it three weeks before the 2020 presidential election.

If they had known about one of the Biden family scandals, such as the Hunter Biden laptop information, 17 percent of Joe Biden’s voters wouldn’t have voted for him, found a 2020 post-election poll. This means big tech’s suppression of this story likely made enough difference to tip Joe Biden into his low-margin win in the Electoral College.

Back in October 2020, Twitter and Facebook immediately responded to The New York Post’s publication of information from Hunter Biden’s laptop by effectively banning it from their platforms that effectively monopolize…

 

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