April 2, 2026

Essays

Mercenaries, Spies & Private Eyes, Part 4 – The New Landsknechts Have Arrived

 

 

 

 

 



 

Mercenaries have been around a long time – clearly, because this is Part 4 of a series concerning them, directly. In recent decades, post-9/11, the rise of “Private Military Companies” (PMC’s) has seen a return to “corporate armies” on a level not seen since the Renaissance in Europe. And taking the lead in the modern marketplace, are the swarm of former soldiers from the South American nation of Colombia…who, somewhat surprisingly, have demonstrated a trait not seen on any scale since the widespread return of mercenaries in the 1960’s: a willingness to fight on both sides of a conflict, much like their forebears, the mostly-German Landsknechts of the wars of the 14th and 15th Centuries.

The Landsknechts emerged in late 15th century Germany as elite mercenary infantry, initially formed under Emperor Maximilian I of the Holy Roman Empire. Inspired by the success of Swiss pikemen, Maximilian sought to create a comparable force loyal to German interests rather than relying on Swiss mercenaries who, often served France.

These professional soldiers revolutionized military organization through their distinctive structure and combat approach. Unlike traditional medieval armies, Landsknechts were highly disciplined, well-trained units specializing in pike and sword tactics. They typically fought in deep, dense formations called gevierte Ordnung (squared order), which proved highly effective against both cavalry and infantry.

A unique characteristic that set Landsknechts apart from other mercenary groups was their willingness to fight against other Landsknecht units. While Swiss mercenaries refused to face other Swiss in battle, considering it dishonorable, Landsknechts had no such compunctions. This led to some of the bloodiest encounters of the period, as Landsknecht units on opposing sides would fight with particular ferocity, each seeking to prove their superior skill and maintain their reputation.

Landsknechts were notorious for their flamboyant appearance and lifestyle. Their distinctive dress, featuring slashed doublets, elaborate codpieces, and multicolored hose, became a defining feature of Renaissance military fashion. This extravagant style reflected both their high pay and their status as elite warriors.

Five German Soldiers. Erhard Schön (1491–1542), c.1535. Public Domain.

 

Their military effectiveness made them sought-after throughout Europe. Landsknechts served in most major conflicts of the period, including the Italian Wars and the Habsburg-Valois Wars, often fighting against their fellow Landsknechts when employed by opposing powers. Their reputation for loyalty to their employer (while under contract) and battlefield effectiveness made them highly valued, though their demands for high pay and tendency toward looting made them expensive to maintain.

Their decline began in the late 16th century as warfare evolved. The increasing importance of firearms and the development of more standardized national armies gradually reduced the role of mercenary pike formations. However, their legacy influenced military organization and culture well into the modern era, particularly in areas of discipline, unit cohesion, and the professional soldier concept.

In the modern day, starting in the early 1960’s, mercenaries continued to play the same roles they had always played, albeit on a lower tier, as either individuals or as pale clones of nationally mustered formations like the French Foreign Legion…until, that is, the 9/11 attacks.

Following those attacks, mercenary corporations – mostly those not operating with the pseudo-approval by a national government, like Sandline International, ArmorGroup and Vinnell – exploded into being. Following the “false start” model of Executive Outcomes in the 1990’s, companies like Blackwater, Triple Canopy, and Aegis Defence Services swung into action, grabbing as much market share as they possibly could.

Controversies immediately began. Many PMCs, notably Blackwater – who was certainly not alone – tended to have a very loose interpretation of “rules of engagement“, resulting in large numbers of civilian casualties. Likewise, PMC casualties were also heavy, with almost 3,700 having been killed by early 2023, compared to 4,419 US troops deaths; however, that figure is somewhat misleading, as confirmed US combat deaths were 3,482, as of 2025. This is complicated by the fact that many contractor deaths went unreported (in order to avoid life insurance payouts to survivors), so the figures on PMC deaths in action are essentially a “best guess” estimate.

And most of those deaths did not come from the United States. Economically disadvantaged ex-soldiers and -police in many “3rd World” nations eagerly jumped at the chance to make a considerable amount of money in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, even though they were not paid at any kind of rate close to their American or European counterparts. Among these were the Colombians.

Colombia has effectively been at war since 1964. Between a long-running guerrilla war against communist revolutionaries and the never-ending war against the cocaine cartels, including the rise of the “narco submarine“, the Colombian armed forces have become one of the finest counterinsurgency forces on the planet. This has come, however, at the price of military conscription.

However, while the Colombian military has a regular influx of fresh conscripts, and those conscripts do become very skilled, there is little need for those skills on the civilian job market in the country. This, coupled to Colombia’s not-unusual condition lack of veteran services post-conscription, results in a large number of highly trained soldiers with nothing to do, and few salable job skills, making the country a prime recruiting location for mercenary recruiters, both reputable and otherwise.

As a result, Colombian veterans have emerged as significant players in the global mercenary market, their expertise forged in decades of counter-insurgency operations and drug war combat. These soldiers, many trained by U.S. special forces during Plan Colombia, combine advanced military skills with extensive real-world combat experience, making them highly sought after by various employers worldwide.

 

The 2021 assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse first brought international attention to this phenomenon. Several former Colombian military personnel were implicated in the operation, highlighting both their availability for complex military operations and the networks facilitating their recruitment. The incident revealed how these veterans’ skills could be deployed for both state and non-state actors.

In Yemen’s civil war, Saudi Arabia actively recruited Colombian veterans to serve alongside their forces. The Saudis specifically sought out Colombian personnel for their experience in counter-insurgency operations and urban warfare. These mercenaries were particularly valued for their ability to train local forces while also participating in direct combat operations.

The Mexican drug cartels have also tapped into this pool of expertise, hiring Colombian veterans as military trainers and tactical advisors. These former soldiers bring sophisticated military knowledge to criminal organizations, teaching advanced combat techniques, tactical planning, and military discipline. Their experience in Colombia’s drug war makes them particularly valuable to cartels seeking to professionalize their armed wings. This dichotomy – soldiers trained to fight drug cartels turning around and training them – is the first example since Executive Outcomes of this sort of reversal.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created new opportunities for Colombian mercenaries, with veterans finding employment on both sides of the conflict. Russia actively recruited through various channels, offering significant pay and potential citizenship. Meanwhile, Ukraine also attracted Colombian veterans to join their foreign legion, appealing to their anti-communist backgrounds and offering combat roles…and frequently end up fighting each other.

 

This issue on both sides of the Ukraine war, which has now killed at least 300 Colombian mercenaries on both sides, is that the war in Ukraine is vastly different from anything they have experience in. Ukraine is a “big war”, where tanks, artillery, combat drones and air attacks are common on both sides. As experienced as Colombian ex-soldiers might be in counterinsurgency or “direct action missions“, they have neither the training nor the experience to fight in this sort of environment, leading to many desperately trying to leave the theater, no matter which side they are fighting for.

The phenomenon reflects several key factors: Colombia’s large pool of combat-experienced veterans, relatively low domestic salaries for retired military personnel, and the extensive international networks developed during Colombia’s own conflicts. Many of these veterans received advanced training from U.S. special forces during their service, making them particularly attractive to employers seeking professional military expertise.

Their presence in an increasing number of conflicts has raised concerns anew about accountability and the privatization of warfare. While some operate through legitimate private military contractors, others work through more informal networks, making their activities harder to track and regulate. The situation has prompted discussions about the need for better international oversight of mercenary activities and the responsibilities of states in monitoring their former military personnel’s post-service activities.

Mercenaries, like warfare, are not going away any time soon. But the real takeaway from this is that, be they Colombians or Landsknechts, needing to hire mercenaries shows a distinct failure of a nation’s will – France does not need its Foreign Legion to survive, although that body has certainly helped the nation over the decades. But, if your people will not fight for you, maybe you should rethink what you are doing as a nation.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Disintegration – How The Taliban’s Drug Trade Could Bring On World War 3

 

 

 



Prelude

With the US Presidential election over, and Donald Trump about to be sworn in for the second time, many of the wars in the Middle East, as well as the war in Ukraine, seem to have paused for a moment, waiting to see what Trump will do. With the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and the resulting complete re-shape of the power dynamics in the region, the world seems to be waiting to see if peace will break out.

With a possible ceasefire in Gaza, this may seem likely. However, there is another theater to the Middle East, and that conflict may very well be the next explosion from the region…and, while it may sound like hyperbole, this burgeoning conflict could potentially result in a real nuclear nightmare.

That place is a familiar spot on the map: Afghanistan.

With the disastrous collapse of the United States presence in the country in the summer of 2021, the Taliban returned to power in the country, and quickly tried to assume the mantle of a legitimate government. Of course, being the Taliban, that was not in the cards, as the Taliban continue with their deranged policies in governance, and are increasingly being undermined by “ISIS-K“, who quickly entrenched in the post-US Afghanistan after their initial teething troubles in the region, and now use their territories as a base to launch international attacks on nations it considers itself to be at war with.

Aside from the Taliban’s shift in income – destroying opium poppy fields, while moving heaven and earth to step up the production of methamphetamines and fentanyl (which both require less processing than opium-into-heroin, and is cheaper to make per kilo) – they are starting to try and play the “Galtieri Card” to increase their support by dredging up Afghanistan’s long-standing ax to grind: the Durand Line.

Old Wounds

The Durand Line, which established the current Afghanistan-Pakistan border in 1893, through an agreement between British India and Afghan Amir Abdur Rahman Khan, has remained a source of tension and conflict in the region for over a century. This arbitrary border, drawn by British diplomat Sir Mortimer Durand – in an era when the opiate Laudanum use was rampant among European elites – cut through traditional Pashtun tribal territories, effectively dividing the Pashtun people between what would become Afghanistan and Pakistan. This status makes the Durand Line the local equivalent to the hated Sykes-Picot Agreement that created the 20th Century borders farther west, carving up the corpse of the Ottoman Empire.

Durand Line Border Between Afghanistan and Pakistan. CIA Image, 2007. Public Domain.

From its inception, the legitimacy of the Durand Line has been contested. Successive Afghan governments have historically argued that the agreement was signed under duress and was meant to be temporary, lasting only 100 years. The Pashtun tribes, who had historically moved freely across these territories, never accepted the border’s legitimacy, viewing it as an artificial division of their ancestral lands.

Following the partition of India in 1947, Afghanistan became the only country to vote against Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations, citing the Durand Line dispute. Afghanistan’s position has consistently been that the agreement was with British India, not its successor state, Pakistan, and thus was voided after partition. This led to several border clashes in the 1950s and 1960s.

The rise of the Taliban, which is predominantly Pashtun in composition, added new complexity to the dispute. During their first period of rule (1996-2001), the Taliban, while focused on internal control, never officially recognized the Durand Line. Their perspective was influenced by both Pashtun nationalism and their vision of an Islamic emirate that transcended colonial-era borders.

The porous nature of the border has had significant strategic implications. During the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), the border’s ambiguity allowed mujahideen fighters to move between Afghanistan and safe havens in Pakistan. This pattern repeated during the U.S.-led intervention (2001-2021), with Taliban fighters utilizing the same cross-border mobility.

After returning to power in 2021, the Taliban maintained their historical opposition to the Durand Line. Tensions escalated when Pakistan attempted to fence parts of the border, leading to several armed confrontations between Taliban and Pakistani forces. The Taliban’s position reflects both Pashtun nationalist sentiments and practical considerations – the border’s porosity benefits their strategic interests and traditional trading routes.

The dispute has broader implications for regional stability. The unresolved border issue complicates counter-terrorism efforts, enables cross-border militant movements, and affects economic development in the border regions. For the Pashtun communities living along both sides of the line, the border remains largely theoretical, with daily life involving regular cross-border movement for trade, family connections, and seasonal migration.

Recent years have seen periodic skirmishes along the border, with both Taliban forces and Pakistani military engaging in limited conflicts over fencing attempts and border control measures. These tensions are growing, and if left unchecked, threaten the safety of the globe itself.

Unstable Nukes

Pakistan, however, is an animal of a completely different stripe. While a Sunni-Islamic state like Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, Pakistan remains unique, as the only Muslim nation in the world with a nuclear arsenal, including the capability to launch that arsenal. What has been worrying every nation in the world with any ounce of sense, is that Pakistan has spent most of the last fifteen years on the razor’s edge of civil war.

The Taliban’s territorial claims in dispute of the Durand Line would carve out a significant chunk of Pakistan, and it is open to question how loyal much of the Pakistani Army might remain to Islamabad, given their reportedly Assad-Syria levels of morale (at the 4 minute mark).

Clearly then, this is a worry, as a collapse of the government of Pakistan throws open the question of the nation’s nuclear arsenal…but then, another player is at this particular table:

India

Thinking About The Unthinkable

When British India was partitioned, what is now modern India came into being, along with Pakistan. As a majority-Hindu state, religiously speaking, with an estimated 80% of the population being of the Hindu faith. And – as Hindus and Muslims have a long history of violent clashes, so too have India and Pakistan in the modern day.

While that may seem to be a simple historical note, the situation is complicated by the fact that India, too, is a nuclear power, equally capable of launching nuclear weapons, and – given its post-partition conflicts with its Muslim neighbor to the north – is not about to stand by and watch Pakistan’s nuclear force fall into the hands of a group like the Taliban – or ISIS-K – which views nuclear weapons as essentially VERY large hand grenades…

If that sounds like me saying that India has a plan to secure that foreign arsenal, that’s because that is exactly what I am saying: after Pakistani intelligence’s almost-certain collusion in the 2008 terror attack on the Indian city of Mumbai, India would be absolute fools to have not created and staged a plan to secure Pakistani nuclear weapons…and that, post-2008 India certainly is not.

Conclusion

In this context, it should not be too difficult to see the potential disaster looming. While Trump may, indeed, have plans in place to solve the Gaza and Ukraine wars on Day 1, Afghanistan and Pakistani unrest is another matter, entirely. In addition to our reporting on the potential of a war between Morocco and Algeria of the Western Sahara (a subscriber exclusive), Afghanistan trying desperately to “war” their way out of failed-state status could well lead to a nuclear disaster of the first order…and the repercussions of that, no one can legitimately predict with any accuracy.

Look to your personal safety and security.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

The Evolution of Military Medicine

 

 

 



Given that this is January 10, 2025, I’m sure that many readers would be expecting me to comment on the recent, and increasingly bizarre, events of the last week and a half: the ISIS/ISIL-inspired attack in New Orleans, the detonation of a Tesla Cybertruck at the Trump International complex in Las Vegas, Nevada, or the Biblical-scale fires raging across the northern sectors of Los Angeles County, some of whom have been confirmed as being arson-sourced, and certain implications now being raised around a possible motive for starting even one of this fires…

…But that is not this article. While certainly important, things are still far too fluid to report with any real accuracy, so I’m going to leave those stories to marinate before considering tackling them – unfounded speculation is for those news agencies who are increasingly desperate for views and clicks.

Instead, we’re going to consider something arguably much more important — the evolution of military medicine.

The evolution of military medicine presents a unique paradox: forces trained to engage in combat must simultaneously provide care not only for their own casualties but also for injured civilians in their area of operations. This dual responsibility has shaped both tactical medicine and strategic planning, while raising complex ethical and practical challenges.

Historical Development

While detailed military medical texts existed in ancient history, especially among Roman military surgeons, those ancient methods were frequently hampered by a lack of what we would now call “scientific rigor”: the ‘four humors‘ persisted well into the Age of Enlightenment.

The story of modern military medicine really begins during the Napoleonic Wars, and progressing through to the Vietnam War, a testament of the development of revolutionary advances born from devastating necessity. During the Napoleonic campaigns, Baron Dominique-Jean Larrey pioneered the “flying ambulance” – horse-drawn carriages that rushed surgeons to the wounded on the battlefield. This innovative system, combined with Larrey’s development of rapid amputation techniques, marked the birth of modern battlefield triage.

Civil War surgeons kit, c.1865. Photo by Quadell, 2013. CCA/3.0

 

However, the care of civilian casualties caught in the fighting remained largely an incidental concern until the advent of World War II, when occupying forces found themselves responsible for local populations devastated by combat operations. This created massive problems for small field medical units, in some cases forcing them to allow local civilian medical personnel to “help out” in the military hospitals, to handle the overflow.

The American Civil War (1861-1865) brought significant advances in medical organization and practice. The Union Army’s establishment of a sophisticated ambulance corps and field hospital system became a model for future conflicts. Dr. Jonathan Letterman, the “Father of Modern Battlefield Medicine,” standardized military medical procedures and created an efficient evacuation system that saved countless lives.

Dr. Jonathan Letterman (1824-72). U.S. Army Medical Museum. Public Domain.

 

World War I witnessed both medical horrors and breakthroughs. The introduction of chemical warfare demanded new treatment protocols, while trench warfare’s massive casualties led to innovations in blood transfusion techniques and the treatment of shock. The war also saw major advances in reconstructive surgery, particularly in treating facial injuries, pioneered by doctors like Harold Gillies.

World War II marked a turning point with the widespread use of penicillin, which dramatically reduced deaths from infected wounds. The development of mobile army surgical hospitals (MASH units) brought advanced surgical care closer to the front lines than ever before. Blood banking and improved techniques for treating burn victims – crucial in the Pacific theater, due to the large-scale use of flamethowers and napalm – represented major advances in trauma care.

The Korean War refined the MASH concept, with helicopter evacuation becoming standard practice. This conflict demonstrated that rapid transport to surgical facilities could significantly improve survival rates, leading to the “golden hour” concept in trauma care.

By the Vietnam War, the military medical system had evolved into a sophisticated network of care. Helicopters, now integral to medical evacuation, could transport casualties to well-equipped surgical facilities within minutes. Advanced trauma care techniques, including improved blood replacement therapy and wound management, reduced the mortality rate to 1% for soldiers who reached medical facilities alive – the lowest in military history to that point.

Patient being loaded by five men onto a stretcher from a bed on a hospital train car. United States Army photo, 1945. Public Domain.

 

This evolution in military medicine has consistently influenced civilian healthcare, with wartime innovations in trauma care, surgery, and medical evacuation continuing to save lives in peacetime emergency medicine.

Modern Operational Challenges

Today’s military medical services face several key challenges when providing civilian care:

  1. Resource Allocation
    – Limited medical supplies
    – Personnel constraints
    – Equipment availability
    – Transportation capacity
  2. Security Considerations
    – Protection of medical facilities
    – Safety of medical personnel
    – Verification of civilian status
    – Prevention of facility exploitation
  3. Cultural Complications
    – Language barriers
    – Religious considerations
    – Gender-specific care requirements
    – Local medical practices

Technical Evolution

Modern military medicine has adapted to meet these challenges through several innovations:

  1. Mobile Treatment Facilities
    – Rapidly deployable field hospitals
    – Modular medical units
    – Specialized trauma equipment
    – Portable diagnostic capabilities
  2. Training Adaptations
    – Cultural awareness programs
    – Language training
    – Civilian trauma protocols
    – Pediatric care specialization
  3. Logistics Management
    – Supply chain optimization
    – Resource tracking systems
    – Predictive analysis tools
    – Inventory management

 

Policy Considerations

The obligation to provide civilian care, however raises several complex policy issues:

  1. Legal Framework
    – Geneva Convention requirements
    – Rules of engagement
    – Medical neutrality
    – Documentation requirements
  2. Resource Management
    – Budget allocations
    – Personnel assignments
    – Equipment distribution
    – Supply priorities
  3. Strategic Impact
    – Population sentiment
    – International relations
    – Coalition cooperation
    – Long-term stability

Current Challenges

Several pressing issues face military medical services:

  1. Urban Warfare
    – High civilian casualty rates
    – Complex evacuation requirements
    – Infrastructure damage
    – Mass casualty events
  2. Technological Integration
    – Telemedicine capabilities
    – Digital health records
    – Remote diagnostics
    – AI-assisted triage
  3. Training Requirements
    – Specialized civilian care
    – Cultural competency
    – Psychological support
    – Ethical decision-making
  4. Climate Impact
    – Heat-related injuries
    – Disease pattern changes
    – Natural disaster response
    – Environmental health
  5. Technological Advancement
    – Autonomous medical systems
    – Enhanced diagnostics
    – Remote treatment capabilities
    – Data management
  6. Population Dynamics
    – Aging populations
    – Urban concentration
    – Health condition changes
    – Resource competition
    – Cultural dynamics and differences

One aspect of the military-civilian interface that used to exist, but was abandoned after the end of the Civil Defense Program and the establishment of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), was the Civil Defense Emergency Hospital (CDEH).

The former United States Civil Defense logo, last used on the FEMA seal before the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. Public Domain.

 

The Civil Defense Emergency Hospital (CDEH) program, operational from the 1950s to the early 1970s, represented a unique approach to disaster preparedness during the Cold War era. Each packaged hospital unit was designed to be stored in a remarkably compact space – typically requiring only about 2,500 cubic feet of storage – yet could be rapidly deployed to provide a 200-bed emergency medical facility.

These hospitals came packaged in distinctive gray-green wooden crates and included nearly everything needed for emergency medical operations except for beds and bedding. The standard package contained surgical instruments, medical supplies, basic diagnostic equipment, generators, water tanks, and even administrative materials. When properly stored, these supplies could remain viable for years with minimal maintenance.

Key features of the CDEH system included:
– Rapid deployment capability (designed to be operational within 24-48 hours)
– Complete surgical suite capabilities
– Basic laboratory facilities
– X-ray equipment
– Pharmacy supplies sufficient for several weeks of operation
– Self-contained power and water systems
– Basic sterilization equipment

The units were strategically placed throughout the United States, often stored in civic buildings, schools, or other facilities that could serve as emergency hospital sites. The host facilities were selected based on criteria including:
– Adequate floor space (approximately 20,000 square feet)
– Access to water and power infrastructure
– Loading dock or ground-level access for equipment movement
– Suitable ventilation systems
– Strategic location relative to population centers

These packaged hospitals represented a significant investment in civil defense medical infrastructure, with each unit costing approximately $60,000 at the time (equivalent to roughly $500,000 in current value). The program’s design principles – emphasizing compact storage, rapid deployment, and comprehensive medical capability – influenced later developments in military field hospitals and disaster response systems.

The concept’s legacy can be seen in modern disaster preparedness, particularly in the development of mobile field hospitals and emergency response units. While the original CDEH program was eventually phased out, its core principle of maintaining pre-packaged, rapidly deployable medical facilities continues to influence emergency planning today.

Conclusion

The evolution of military medicine continues to be shaped by the need to balance combat support with humanitarian care. Success requires not only technical and medical expertise but also careful consideration of ethical, cultural, and strategic implications. As warfare becomes increasingly urban and technologically complex, the challenges of providing civilian care while maintaining combat effectiveness will only grow more demanding.

This reality requires continued adaptation in training, equipment, and policy to ensure military medical services can meet their dual responsibilities effectively while maintaining operational capabilities.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

World Situation Report for 2024 – The Year In Review

 

 

 

 

 



As we close out the year of 2024, it has certainly been a monumental year. Movements have waxed and waned, politicians have been both humiliated and nearly assassinated, business leaders have actually been removed from the field, nations have fallen, wars continue, and security flaws have been exposed. This article will close out the year; the next article will be in the first week of January.

Pretty standard stuff, really…except that many of these events this year have been truly significant.

The United States

Starting with the proverbial elephant in the room, Donald J. Trump – the 45th President of the United States – was reelected to the Presidency by a very comfortable margin over his primary challenger, the thoroughly un-electable Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s re-election was secured following his survival of an assassination attempt on July 13th, in Butler, Pennsylvania, where the former President missed death on live television by literally millimeters; innocent bystanders were not so lucky. The image of a blood-spattered Trump being hustled away from the target zone by Secret Service agents while shouting “Fight, fight, fight!” has joined the Zapruder film in the minds of a new generation of Americans of what political violence actually looks like.

But it was not the attempt itself that secured Trump’s victory: it was the response from the Biden White House to the assassination attempt – especially in its agencies frankly unbelievable responses to the events, including washing down the crime scene within hours of the attempt, and cremating the shooters remains before any proper autopsy or toxicology screen could be done on the remains. The other issue was the gleeful responses from a wide swath of the political Left in the United States, alternately cheering the attempt and whining over the assassin missing his mark (although he didn’t).

A wounded President Trump at the Republican National Convention’s final night. Photo credit by Tim Kennedy. CCA/2.0

 

Reasonable and rational Americans were shocked and disgusted by the extreme Left’s responses, and began moving away from the Biden camp in earnest…which quickly led to shocking replacement of Biden on the Democrat Party ticket by Kamala Harris within days of the failed attempt. Harris was confirmed as the Democrat candidate without a voting process allowing other candidates to present themselves to party members as options…the end result was an election that flipped the leadership of the US again, by a comfortable margin.

The reason for concentrating on the US election so much, is that it represents a sea-change in US politics, not simply concerning domestic policies, but in international policies. This is both a blessing and a curse for the incoming administration, as the world is tired of the United State’s 50% chance of a 180° swing in its policies every four years.

On top of all of this, is the widespread outpouring of frankly disgusting sexual angst from the Left over the alleged assassin of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Once again, we were “treated” to deranged lunatics fawning over a potential killer, and the mainstream media promotes this view, in a desperate attempt to ignore the real reasons why sympathy for a murdered healthcare CEO is nearly impossible to find.

And finally, no end-of-2024 recap for the United States would be complete without talking about the waves of drones that have been plaguing the East Coast since November, which we covered last week. Short answers:

  1. Aliens don’t use FAA-approved navigation light patterns, and
  2. If a nuclear weapon, nuclear waste, or chemical anything had been lost in New Jersey, drones would be in the sky 24/7, and every flavor of law enforcement and the military would be out in the streets, armed to the teeth, and being highly hostile to anyone who looked at them sideways, until they found the missing cargo. Instead, we have seen the US Government, Inc. display a level of incompetence at such a staggering level, it boggles the imagination, as – 23 years after 9/11 – “mystery drones” are operating with impunity inside US airspace, at low altitude, and no one in the government has any idea who is responsible for making a decision on what to do about it, and no one is willing to take responsibility for acting in good faith.

 

Gnaw on that, for a while.

 

Europe

Europe continues to descend into failed-state status, as continual squabbling and inefficiencies in the structure of the European Union are crushing the economy of Europe as a whole, while “Great” Britain is desperately trying to outdo its continental neighbors in becoming a drug-addled, comic-opera version of Charlie Chaplains “The Great Dictator“, and France’s Emmanuel Macron is desperate to prove that he is not a literal “Momma’s Boy” by alternately trying to either start World War 3 by sending French and NATO forces into direct combat against Russia, while trying to revive its flagging influence on a continent that is past-done with France trying to be the colonial overlord with a nice face.

Of course, this includes the war in Ukraine, where Russia’s Vladimir Putin is hanging on long enough for Trump to step in and kill support to the absolute donkeys leading the lions of the Ukrainian forces. The Ukraine has only held as long as it has, because the general character of the “spear-carriers” in the literal trenches is as good as it is – it all fails, though, when you get above the level of the battlefield that is in range of Russian artillery.

The Middle East

The big news in the Middle East as the year closes is obviously the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. After ruling the country since 1971, Bashar Assad was forced to flee into exile in Russia after “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) a revived Al Nusra Front/Al Qaeda/Islamc State zombie rolled out of its Turkish bases and overran the country in under two weeks.

The reasons for the swift collapse are not hard to understand, if you understand the region. Assad’s remaining forces were exhausted draftees no longer interested in dying for his regime; his Iranian allies – including their Hezbollah proxies – were causing him more trouble than they were worth; Putin is too wrapped up in Ukraine to offer more than token support; and his country has been effectively partitioned since 2011.

Assad saw what was coming in November, and sent his family to Russia “on a vacation”. He, himself, stayed behind long enough to try and fight is out – you never know, in warfare – but when it was obvious that it was over, he escaped, demonstrating that he was at least smarter than Muammar Gaddafi.

As a result, the region is now in chaos, and is on the verge of becoming a “Libya, 2.0” on the borders of Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Iraq. Effectively, this has guaranteed at least another decade – or more – of warfare in the region. Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have though this was a good idea, but he is about to discover the truth of opening Pandora’s Box.

 

Africa

Africa remains a basket case, with wars, rumors of wars, and coups d’état all over the continent; there is another major war brewing, but that article is coming in January 2025. Although Russian influence was clearly on the rise in 2023 and 2024, the war in Ukraine has severely curtailed Russian operations on the continent, at least for the moment.

Yemen – which should technically be a part of the Middle East section, but is included here, because of its impacts on eastern Africa, saw the Houthis dealt a heavy blow to their confidence when neither Russia nor Iran were able to prevent Assad’s Syrian collapse, causing their co-religionist Hezbollah allies to atomize, in order to get out of the vice of Israel and a revived Islamic State…Whether or not this will cause them to back off their war against the world’s commercial shipping in the Red Sea remains to be seen.

Asia

Asia remains relatively quiet, compared to the rest of the world, with the only current major conflict of note being the “Tatmadaw” of Burma continuing to hang on by their fingernails, as the union of rebel movements sputters without effective outside support, while the military junta keeps trying to break bread with Communist China.

Of note, however, is that North Korea began trading human troops to Russia for ballistic missile technology, which is threatens a direct impact on the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula.

Meanwhile, VISA – the credit card giant – has decided to embrace DEI fully, by violating the Logan Act in trying to force Japan to conform to the company’s morals. While the Japanese government has not yet reacted, the utterly tone-deaf head of VISA is very likely about to find out why that is a terrible idea.

Conclusion

The only relatively quiet spot in the world remains South America, where – despite a host of issues – large-scale violence remains almost unknown, compared to the rest of the planet.

It has been a tiring year, but – cautiously – things might be looking up.

Let’s hope no wingnut screws it up.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Fear & Droning on the Jersey Shore

 

 

 

 

 



Since November 18th of 2024, residents in most parts of the state of New Jersey and parts of Greater New York City have been terrorized by an increasing number of mass sightings of what have been variously described as either UFO’s or drones which are reportedly, “the size of SUV’s“. The issue is so bad, some people are actually calling for Elon Musk to do something about it (what, exactly, Musk would be expected to do on his own, no one is quite clear).

Naturally, people in the vicinity are increasingly terrified, as not only do they not know what is happening, it appears to all intents and purposes that the United States government, and specifically its law enforcement and regulatory agencies, as well as the armed forces, apparently not only have no idea what these are, either, nor who is even responsible for addressing the flights.

Despite repeated assurances that the drones – or whatever they are – “pose no apparent threat” to national security or American citizens (despite reportedly flying over a number of military installations in New Jersey), the general public, including major-network news presenters who live in the area, are flatly not buying the official story, and are loudly demanding action.

These calls have become much more serious in the wake of statements made on December 11 by New Jersey Congressional Representative Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ, 2nd District) to FOX News commentator Harris Faulkner that the drones were operating from an “Iranian mothership” operating off the coast, and that the drones needed to be shot down.

There are multiple weird things going on, here – what is actually happening?

The main issue is not so much that “mystery” drones are operating in US airspace, as that has been going on since at least late-2023 (and no, we’re not talking about the balloons), but that no one in the government seems to know what is going on, nor who is responsible for even initiating action…and this, some twenty-three years after 9/11.

All kinds of theories have been put forward, from extraterrestrial aliens doing extraterrestrial alien things, to the Russians, the Iranians or the Chinese. The US government is publicly unconcerned, assuring people that there is no danger from the drones, even though they claim that they have no idea where the drones are coming from, nor who is operating them.

One feature that seems to be a major point of focus, concerns the size of the drones, as they are frequently described as being “the size of an SUV”. This naturally alarms people, given the media’s obsession with miniature drones being used in combat from the Middle East to the Ukraine. However, the mainstream media once again has failed its consumers in never presenting a coherent narrative. In this case, it is the fact that “SUV-sized” drone aircraft have been around for a long time, almost since the advent of ‘heavier than air flight’ began some 120 years ago. In this specific case, we are talking about the “QH-50 DASH“, in the image below.

 

A QH-50C DASH drone with two torpedoes on the Gearing-class destroyer USS Joseph P. Kennedy (DD-850). UN Navy Photo. Public Domain.

 

The DASH was a remotely piloted (RPV) anti-submarine helicopter designed in the late-1950’s, and deployed to the Navy beginning in 1963. It had a combat radius of about 70 nautical miles (c.80 miles on land), and could carry a payload of around 900 pounds. That translates into a lot of explosive ordnance, if someone wanted to load them with such.

Now, we are not implying that someone is flying QH-50’s over New Jersey; however, the DASH is a sixty-five year old design, and there have been more than a few technological improvements since then.

Likewise, there is little to be gained by a foreign power in conducting surveillance flights of this type over US territory – the risk versus return ratio is just not workable, especially given the notoriously poor security at many installations in the US. Such operations are an open invitation to legitimate military action, which would turn the United States into the victim, something none of the country’s adversaries want.

So – What, then, is happening over New Jersey, and which is now apparently spreading from New York, south all the way to Maryland?

Really, there are only three options:

 

    1. The drones are some sort of extraterrestrial craft – i.e., “little green men” – flying around, scaring the bejeesus out of people, and the government is clamming up, to try and keep the public from full-scale, panicked hysteria…which isn’t working.
    1. These are drones from some hostile/adversary nation, flying from some kind of “mothership” operating offshore. If this is the case, the US government as a whole have revealed themselves to be utterly and completely incompetent, and totally incapable of protecting the nation, in spite of twenty-three or so years of obscene amounts of money being spent on “defense”, after the largest and deadliest terror attack in US history.
    1. That these drones are being flown by an agency of the US government.

 

…And increasingly, it may be that last option which may be true.

Within the US defense and intelligence budgetary offices, there is a phenomenon known as the “Special Access Program” (SAP). These “black budget” operations are never reported to Congress in any open session, and only rarely under certain circumstances (the “Unacknowledged Special Access Program“, or “U-SAP“) to those members of Congress with a direct “need to know”.

The rationale behind this option is that the failings being exposed by the US government response to these incursions did not happen overnight. Filings of this magnitude only develop over long stretches of time. There is a chance – admittedly, a long chance – that certain parties inside the US defense and/or intelligence communities have become disgusted at these fundamental security failures by the “above-ground” government, in spite of their constant – if secret – demands for reform, and have decided to force the issue, as the Biden-Harris administration is on the way out…

…At least, that is the “best case” situation, because the first two options are infinitely worse than #3.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

The Hatred of Corporate Healthcare

 

 

 



On December 4th, the CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of United Healthcare, Brian Thompson, was killed outside the New York Hilton Midtown in Manhattan. With stunning video evidence readily available, a manhunt for the killer began that continues as this article goes to press. Calling the killing a “premeditated attack” (meaning, “assassination“), many “experts” quickly weighed in on aspects of the killing…but, in the wider world, something very interesting began to happen:

While there was certainly sympathy directed towards Thompson’s survivors (who were at their home in Minnesota at the time), there was virtually no sympathy directed towards Thompson himself. And, given that the shooter apparently inscribed the words “Delay”, “Deny” and “Defend” – believed to be a reference to a recent book about how to fight back against insurance companies denying insurance claims, it would seem that a broad cross-section of public opinion has now openly turned against corporate leadership, at least in the United States.

There are two parts to this story, at present: the technical aspects, and the wider controversy over corporate leaders. We will start with the technical side.

Much has been made of the shooter’s supposed skills, especially his use of a suppressor on his weapon (insert pithy quip about how well gun control seems to be working in New York, State and City); you can view the video of the incident here if you choose to do so, to make your own decision.

The first aspect one would normally examine is the shooter’s motive. As that person is not yet in custody – and the police’s supposed knowledge of the shooter’s identity may well not be who they think it is – judging their motives and mindset is problematic, at best. That said, it is clear that the shooter acted very calmly as he executed his attack. While that could be attributed to drugs used to calm his system, his subsequent actions would tend to argue that he was a calm, collected and focused actor.

However calm he may have been, however, his technical shooting skills were terrible.

The shooter did manage to approach from behind Thompson, having apparently been lying in wait for his target to walk out of the hotel; this would seem to indicate that there may have been someone inside the hotel observing Thompson walking towards the entrance, who could have been talking to the shooter, advising him of Thompson’s movements.

When the shooting starts, a number of things come immediately to into focus. While the shooter’s aim seemed to be reasonably good, definitely striking Thompson in the back, the shooter clearly did not know very much about suppressed weapons, as his weapon clearly jams on every shot, as it is not matched at all to the weapon he is using. Despite some pundits commenting in an attempt to show their “deep” knowledge of firearms, the pistol was neither a Welrod, nor a VP-9. Unlike in the movies, jams with handguns fitted with suppressors are extremely common unless the pistol, suppressor and ammunition are all carefully balanced.

Welrod Pistol, Parham Airfield Museum, Suffolk. Museum of the British Resistance Organisation. Photo Credit: Gaius Cornelius. CCA/4.0

 

Next are the apparent “messages” left on the shell casings ejected onto the sidewalk. There are two ways to look at this: either the shooter was personally disgruntled at Thompson – for whatever reason – and wanted to “send a message” or, conversely, was trying to offer a distraction to police; neither is the hallmark of a “professional hitman“, as it offers too much evidence on the casings through handling.

Finally, is the shooter’s escape plan. After mortally wounding Thompson, the shooter fled across the street in front of the hotel, where he retrieved an e-bike, and was last seen entering Central Park, and while the e-bike was quickly located, there was no sign of the shooter, again as this article goes to press.

This, despite breathless claims, is no sign of “professionalism” – it’s just common sense, as there are few cameras in Central Park, allowing the shooter to dump the e-bike and very likely much of his incriminating gear before disappearing. And, being blunt, attacks like this rarely result in arrest.

Overall, whatever the shooter’s motives were, he is no “professional hitman“, even allowing for the possibility of working with a co-conspirator. At best, he is a “movie pro” – someone who has watched a lot of movies and YouTube videos, and maybe even read a couple of books, and probably visited a shooting range once or twice.

At best.

But the deeper part of this story is in the public reaction to this killing.

Normally, when some prominent figure meets a sudden end, even if that figure is strongly disliked – even hated – there is usually some sympathy from the wider public, even if they wished that person to have survived in order to face prison. But not here.

The general reaction to Thompson’s assassination – based on comments on various platforms and news sites – while usually not exactly “gleeful” in nature, certainly offer him no sympathy, and precious little for his family, which is rather extraordinary, in itself. This related directly to the company he headed, and his actions as its head.

Thompson was in New York City to speak at a shareholder meeting which was expected to get very ugly, as it appears that Thompson and other United Healthcare executives had concealed an insider trading investigation being conducted by the US Federal Department of Justice (DOJ). The allegations centered around Thompson and other executives dumping company stocks at a profit before word of the investigation got out, causing UHC’s stock to lose a good deal of its value.

But things like this happen a lot; one need only recall the ENRON scandal of 2001. Running a stock scam at a major corporation isn’t usually going to generate enough hatred to actually kill people, especially when the stock hasn’t yet tanked completely. This hatred of insurance companies in general, and particularly of United Healthcare, has been building for a long time.

The words inscribed on the spent shell casings appear to refer to a book published in 2010, “Delay, Deny, Defend: Why Insurance Companies Don’t Pay Claims and What You Can Do About It“, by Jay M. Feinman, detailing the tactics insurance companies use to avoid paying claims against the insurance policies that they issue.

In fact, United Healthcare is well-known in the medical insurance industry as having one of the highest denial rates of all insurers; this author speaks from personal experience, as I used to work for a company that helped hospitals dispute medical insurance claim denials. UHC was the company I dealt with the most.

Given the insurance actions surrounding the COVID pandemic alone, being denied – or having a loved one being denied – on a desperately needed healthcare claim would be more than enough to send someone over an edge sufficient to want to make a very loud and targeted statement…like assassinating a healthcare insurance CEO in public.

Businesses exist to make money. We all get that – well, at least the rational people get it. And making money often involves cutting costs, including expenditures. We get that, too. But, there is limit to how deep those cost cuttings need to go – and healthcare is only the most visible industry where overly aggressive “economy measures” are generally seen.

Corporate board members throughout the business community in general, should take note of this situation. The 21st Century is turning out to be a very tumultuous time, and their customers are becoming increasingly fed up with the normal corporate antics.

This article is no “clarion call” for people to act out against business leader – quite the opposite, in fact. It is intended to point out that the best way to keep these things from happening is not bodyguards and ineffectual laws to limit access to guns, but to try and not give desperate people the idea that actions like this are their only way to gain relief…or at least revenge.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

The Special Forces Crisis: When Shortcuts Create Casualties

 

 

 

 



The United States Army Special Forces faces a growing crisis that threatens the effectiveness of America’s elite military units. The drive to maintain special operations forces (SOF) numbers through direct recruitment programs has led to concerning patterns of casualties and reduced operational effectiveness, highlighting the dangers of shortcuts in developing elite warriors. Unfortunately, there is a great deal of generalization in the numbers that follow, because of the classified nature of Special Operations in general, but the trend is there.

The Traditional Path

Historically, becoming a Special Forces operator involved a carefully structured progression. Candidates typically served 3-5 years in conventional military units before applying to Special Forces training. This traditional pathway provided several crucial elements.

Older candidates tended to have developed their own knowledge of what physical training and development strategies worked best for them, more formulaic Army methods aside. This enabled them to understand how their bodies reacted to physical stress, which usually lowered the possibility of physical injuries. It also allowed a “leveling-off” in a soldier’s physical maturation, which also helped reduce injuries.

Group of Soldiers from ARVN with SFC Norman A. Doney, 5th S.F. Group, Vietnam, September 1968. United States Army Heritage and Education Center. Public Domain.

 

This also allowed the SF candidate to gain valuable experience in stress management, leadership, and technical skills. Likewise, the experience gained as a “regular” soldier provided a deeper understanding of military psychology and culture, providing valuable experience in how operations are typically run, with a “bottom-up” view that would offer the candidate vital experience in understanding the challenges they would face when isolated on operations.

The resulting teams of “Operators” were very well situated to a wide array of “unconventional” tasks, ranging from “deep” reconnaissance, to what is now termed “direct action missions”, to embedding as liaison teams with Coalition units during Operation Desert Storm, to acting in their original mission, by training “partner nation” forces, either from scratch or by refining their existing training.

In this older model, the candidate with three to five years of experience before entering Special Forces also allowed the members of the “Operational Detachment Alpha” (ODA) teams (the famous “A-Teams”) to have both a primary Military Occupational Specialty coming in through the door, but would also allow for them having acquired “side” experience, through which they could obtain secondary or “alternate” specialty training in diverse and unrelated field, meaning that a 12-man ODA actually had up to twenty-four (or more) technical specialties at hand, including backups, within their team.

The Rush to Fill Ranks

Following the 9/11 attacks, the demands on special operations units throughout the United States military structure led to a serious manpower shortage, as – despite (if not “because of”) battlefield successes – the existing special forces units quickly began to experience manning shortages, as casualties mounted and operational teams were exhausted by the rapid pace of operations. This would lead to the creation of programs to rapidly bring in fresh recruits to fill the gaps.

In the US Army’s case, this became the “18X (Special Forces Candidate)” program, allowing civilians to directly enlist into Special Forces training. The idea was that a candidate who met all the basic educational and fitness requirements for Army Special Forces could be enlisted and “fast-tracked” to SF training, running through Army Basic Training, A.I.T., then on to parachute training, before being sent to the actual Special Forces training. The result was physcally fit, highly motivated operators, who had “checked off” all the requisite boxes, but who lacked the depth of experience of those who had come before them. The result was something more akin to “elite assault infantry”, something more akin to the US Army Rangers, rather than “Special Forces”.

There is nothing wrong with the concept of the Rangers – but that concept is not the same thing as Army Special Forces…What follows is by no means an indictment of the candidates themselves, but of the wider Army command structure, who should have known better.

While the 18X program helped meet the immediate personnel needs for Army Special Forces, they have revealed some serious problems:

  1. Physical Casualties
    – Higher rates of training injuries
    – Increased long-term physical damage
    – More frequent stress fractures
    – Earlier career-ending injuries
  2. Psychological Impact
    – Elevated PTSD rates
    – Higher frequency of “burnout”
    – Reduced stress tolerance
    – Shorter operational careers
  3. Operational Limitations
    – Decreased mission flexibility
    – Limited tactical understanding
    – Reduced cross-unit coordination
    – Compromised team effectiveness

The Experience Gap

As noted above, veterans of conventional units brought crucial life experiences into their Special Forces careers that direct-enlistment recruits simply lack, because they have not had the time to learn and experience those life lessons that their predecessors had.

Going straight from training to high-intensity “operational” status is functionally sending out people who know how to pull a trigger, not someone who understands the nuances of how to react to their surroundings, nor how to deal with the stresses of everything going completely wrong at the first shots. Special Forces have to be able to switch instantly from shooting people, to working with survivors in the immediate area, as well as how to calmly and rationally coordinate with foreign military and police units in the aftermath, whether those are from the country the SF team is operating in, or from allied nations. These functions require both maturity and humility, which can only be developed over time – time that the 18X program cannot impart.

The Historical Record

The 77th Infantry Division’s World War 2 experience provides a damning historical precedent that the Army seemingly ignored when creating the 18X program. The 77th’s success – with its higher average age of 35 and consequently more mature decision-making abilities – demonstrated clear advantages in the complex, high-intensity combat of the Pacific theater. Despite facing some of the war’s most challenging battlefield conditions, the division’s older, more experienced from civilian life soldiers generally suffered lower casualty rates than younger-aged units in the same actions.

77th Infantry division troops during the Battle of Okinawa, May, 1945. US Army Archives. Public Domain.

 

This historical data – especially in light of the history of Special Forces operations from the 1950’s to the 1990’s – should have served as a clear warning against the 18X program’s entire premise. If older, more experienced soldiers performed better in conventional warfare, it follows that rushing young, inexperienced recruits directly into the even more complex and demanding world of special operations would be problematic, at the very least. The Army had empirical evidence from the 77th, reinforced from Vietnam to Desert Storm, that maturity and life experience were crucial force multipliers in challenging combat environments, especially for Special Forces, yet chose to disregard these lessons when designing the 18X program. The resulting higher casualty rates among direct-entry special operations personnel represent a preventable tragedy.

Statistical Reality

Recent studies indicate troubling trends among direct-entry special operators. Over 75% of musculoskeletal injuries among Special Forces are preventable. Unfortunately, the reality is that data collection for these kinds of statistical studies is extremely hazy in quality.

The real story lies in the fact that the 18X program is still in force as an active recruitment tool, indicating that either the US Army is having serious problems attracting applicants to one of its premier “Tier 1” formations (which would not be surprising, given the Army’s well known recruiting woes), or that the 18X program still needs to run, in order to keep the numbers flowing in.

Neither offers a comforting picture.

The Cost of Shortcuts

The financial and operational costs of these programs are significant: Higher washout rates – whether from medical, emotional or psychological reasons – waste contentious budget monies, and make teams harder to form, train and deploy.

This also makes operational deployments much more expensive, overall, while limiting the capabilities of the units deployed, due a general lack of experience, and an increase in the requirements for already heavily strained support operations.

The whole combines into a toxic soup that lowers morale, degrades mission capabilities, and results in frantic attempts by inexperienced political leadership to find workaround solutions that, frankly, aren’t.

U.S. soldiers load a simulated casualty on a UH-60 Black Hawk during a medical evacuation at Fort Hunter Liggett, Calif., May 17, 2011. Photo credit: Technical Sgt Chris Hibben, US Army. Public Domain.

Conclusion

The United States desperately needs an effective special operations establishment. While highly capable at their missions, the Rangers are not suited to replace Army Special Forces. But Army SF is locked into a vicious cycle, where they need to maintain numbers for operations, but have serious problems (not all of their own making) with bringing in fresh candidates. That may change in the next few years, but there is little light in this tunnel.

The effectiveness of America’s special operations forces depends on finding the right balance between meeting personnel needs and maintaining the high standards that make these units elite…but, much more telling, is the need for coherent leadership at the top of both the military and civilian establishments.

The reality of history is that the regular military services have long detested the very idea of “elite” formations, despite their demonstrated capabilities. In the civilian quarter, the highly toxic nature of civilian politics in the United States means that few serious veterans want anything to do with the civilian leadership establishment in any way, leading to an increasingly wide divergence in understanding of what military forces require to operate, nor of their true capabilities.

There are no easy answers to this last problem, but something needs to be done to fix it, because there is an ogre lurking in the background, that no one wants to see come back into reality.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

 

Why Yemen Is Destroying The West

 

 

 

 

 



Wars cannot end, until the enemy is defeated, and there is no stomach in the West for the necessary operations…

With the reelection of Donald J. Trump to the Presidency of the United States, even as Progressive, Left-wing pundits around the world launched into publicly televised hysterical meltdowns (that were subdued, compared to those of the many programmed victims of their psychological manipulations of the last few decades), heads of state around the world – the sane ones, at least – broadcast their congratulations to Trump.

In the Middle East, this was also true, for the most part. However, in both Iran and Yemen, reactions were mixed. Neither state is particularly happy about Trump’s victory, as both know that Trump is a diehard supporter of Israel, far more so than the ineffectual and vacillating Democrat administration of Joe Biden has been. This bodes ill for Trump’s immediate foreign policy options.

Since October 19, 2023, the Shi’a Muslim Houthi faction in Yemen has “done a yeoman’s work” in supporting the Hamas terrorist group that attacked and slaughtered defenseless civilians – including pregnant women – in their October 7th invasion of southern Israel that year.

While Yemen is physically separated from Israel and Gaza by a very considerable distance, one could be forgiven for assuming that the Houthis would only be able to offer kind words to Hamas. However, this is the 21st Century, and the Houthis are being supported by the Shi’a Muslim mullahs ruling Iran, to the north…and who have supplied the Houthis with not only Iran-designed derivatives of the ancient Soviet SCUD missiles, but with anti-ship missiles as well.

And it is that last group of weapons that is going to present Donald Trump with his most serious challenge, the first of a series of messes left for him to clean up, much as he found in 2017, when he had to pick up the pieces of Barack Obama’s eight-year long “bombing-fest”.

This time, though, Trump will have a far harder time. Trump’s first administration, as hard as Liberal news organs try to deny it, was marked as being the first Presidency in living memory to have not resulted in the United States becoming embroiled in any new military conflicts – every military action during the “Trump Years” of 2017-2021 were part of conflicts he inherited from Barack Obama.

The US and Western militaries in general, have been critically weakened as a result of the staggering incompetence of the last four years of mismanagement from Washington and NATO capitals. The aloof and disconnected-from-reality “ivory tower” political elites in the West have floundered as their intricate “house of cards” strategies for global dominance have collapsed, as those people they discounted as backwards, uneducated “camel jockeys”, simply declined to play by the script those elites had written for them.

Their first stumble was pushing Vladimir Putin’s Russia into invading Ukraine – the Western elites never imagined that Putin would actually invade – they assumed that he would either meekly acquiesce, or that he would launch a new Cold War, one that would boost the elites’ defense industry stock portfolios into orbit (literally)…The notion that Putin would actually commit to massive, “main force” combat on a scale not seen since 1990-1991 was never on their “bingo cards”.

Next came Africa, as local state armies – usually led by Western-trained officers (sparking delightfully daft conspiracy ravings from Left-wing talking heads) – in the “Coup Belt” of the Sahel Region decided that tossing out Western – primarily French – influence for good, via military action, was worth the risk. The elites were left slack-jawed to discover that what they had considered their racial and cultural inferiors had had enough of their paternalistic ravings, and told them to get out. So “uppity” has Africa gotten, that the Ugandan government publicly and messily refused to bend the knee to the United States over imposing visa restrictions on its officials over the country’s anti-LGBTQ policies – and had to watch as most African countries lined up behind the Central African state. Then, the Sahel nation of Niger – one of the most recent “Coup Belt” states – non-too politely told the US State and Defense departments to ‘pound sand’ over what they described as threats to the country if they did not immediately restore the corrupt government installed by French corporations – then told them that the DoD to remove the $100 million drone operations base at Agadez…To paraphrase a certain comic book-cum-movie character: “…Not a good plan, America…

And then, there is Ukraine. It does not matter in the slightest, whether you support Ukraine, or Russia, or neither. That is literally irrelevant. All that matters, are three things:

  1. Despite obscene amounts of Western monetary and material support, Ukraine is losing the war. Deal with it.
  2. The nuclear saber rattling from both sides has brought the world closer to and intentional nuclear exchange than at any time in history.
  3. The United States and NATO defense establishments have demonstrated their categorical inability to supply even basic war materials – this is not Star Trek, and there are no replicators here

 

To this context, we must add the fact that North Korea – which was at least willing to listen to Trump, at some level – smelled weakness in Washington, and moved swiftly to capitalize on that weakness. (NB: The Freedomist covered this on its monthly subscription side, as well.)

…Which brings us back to Yemen.

Yemeni civil war map. Houthi areas are in green. February, 2024. Map credit: Ali Zifan. CCA/4.0 International.

 

Yemen is a truly ancient nation, with its recorded history stretching back at least 7,000 years, with much of that history revolving around the sea. Like most of the states and people’s in the region, Yemenis of all tribes and religious sects understand one of the core truisms of warfare: “A ship’s a fool to fight a fort.” (Attributed to Admiral Horatio Nelson.)

While some modern naval pundits have tried to dismiss this wisdom in the modern day – much as their recent ancestors though that “capabilities based planning” was a better idea than traditional strategic thinking – the current effort by Yemen’s Houthis has proven how true it really is, if one has the ability to think about warfare on multiple levels.

The Houthis have no defined “fort” to fight – the operate their missiles as a kind of “shell game”, shuttling them around the countryside, much as the original US strategy for the Minuteman Missile system of the 1980’s. That idea works, as sea-launched land-attack missiles have trouble finding those targets.

As a result, Houthi missiles fired into the Bab al Mandeb Strait have seriously damaged both world commerce, as well as local economies, with traffic through the Suez Canal dropping by c.65% overall, and with port calls to Red Sea ports falling by a staggering 85%. Naval missile attacks have done little to even slow the rates of attack in the region, much less stop them…because they can’t.

 

Added to this, has been the recent escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, first with the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah launching multiple attacks into northern Israel, with the Israeli’s hitting back just as hard, if not harder.

Iran responded to these events by attacking Israel, several times. Now, as of November 15, 2024, Israel has attacked another Iranian nuclear facility.

But…What does this have to do with Yemen?

In fact, very little, at least at first glance. The problem is that Yemen is a fantastic foil for Iran against the United States and its allies: it forces Israel and those Western powers hostile to Iran to split their forces between theaters, while limiting their ability to shift naval forces. At the same time, the Houthis – and thus, Iran – have been able to critically damage the commercial system that the West depends on, and all without Iran becoming directly involved.

This situation has no solution, other than a very messy, and very bloody “boots on the ground” invasion of the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen…by Trump…With all that implies, given the last twenty-five years of war.

This is because neither the Houthis, nor the Iranians, are willing to actually negotiate any sort of peace agreement, unless Israel agrees to undue everything it has done in reply to Hamas and Hezbollah…Which is simply not going to happen.

Because of the failures of the Biden administration, small but hostile powers states have launched wars because they saw the weaknesses of the United States and the West, and sought to capitalize on that weakness…and they know that Trump will not be able to fix those problems before the 2026 mid-term elections in the US.

If one were a conspiracy theorist, one could almost think that this was a deliberate ploy to undermine a Trump victory.

But that’s just crazy-talk.

Right?

 

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

 

Defense Industry Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Trump’s Achilles’ Heel

 

 

 

 



Introduction

This article is going to press on November 8th of 2024. Donald J. Trump as been confirmed to have won the US Presidential election be a decisive margin. While much is being made in some quarters about how “Daddy Trump” is going to fix everything overnight, the reality is that Trump will face a myriad of major diplomatic challenges on Day One of his new administration. While we could write multiple articles on every one of the many wars Trump will have to deal with – and we will discuss one of them next week – this week, we will talk about the most important issue.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exposed critical weaknesses in Western defense industrial capacity, while recent infrastructure incidents highlight the fragility of military logistics chains. These vulnerabilities raise serious questions about NATO’s ability to sustain high-intensity conflicts and maintain global military readiness, because they are not being addressed.

Peace Through Strength” is a resounding cry, but it requires “strength” to make it work.

 

The Artillery Crisis

NATO’s inability to meet Ukraine’s artillery shell requirements has revealed a stark reality: Western defense industries are no longer configured for industrial-scale warfare. The conflict has consumed ammunition at rates not seen since World War II, with Ukraine firing approximately 6,000-8,000 artillery rounds per day, while Russia expends an estimated 15,000-20,000 rounds daily.

European and American ammunition plants, optimized for peacetime efficiency rather than wartime surge capacity, have struggled to increase production. Most Western facilities operate on a single-shift basis with aging equipment, lacking the workforce and infrastructure for rapid expansion. The situation is exacerbated by shortages of raw materials and specialized components, many of which come from a limited number of suppliers.

In contrast, Russia – which had correctly forecasted the coming decade’s events – quietly began classifying increasing amounts of its economic (and possibly population) data, beginning in 2014. Further, while the Western powers had deliriously wrapped up and eventually converted or bulldozed much of its war production capacity, the newly non-Soviet Russia did not: they mothballed their facilities. And, as tensions with the West began rising after the Donbas War began, they began to quietly bring those mothballed plants back online.

The reason for focusing so much on artillery production is that, far more than the production of drones, tanks or airplanes, artillery is the most important determiner of modern warfare capabilities, after Logistics infrastructure and the combat abilities of one’s infantry forces.

 

Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

The recent collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland after being struck by the container ship MV Dali highlights another critical vulnerability in military logistics. Major ports and waterways are essential for moving military equipment and supplies, yet many rely on aging infrastructure. The Baltimore incident demonstrates how a single point of failure can disrupt both civilian and military shipping patterns across an entire region.

The Military Sealift Command (MSC) fast combat support ship USNS Supply (T-AOE 6) sails through the Atlantic Ocean, 2006. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate 3rd Class Joshua Kinter. Public Domain.

Similar vulnerabilities exist across NATO’s logistics infrastructure:

  • Aging rail networks crucial for moving heavy military equipment
  • Limited redundancy in key shipping channels and ports
  • Concentrated dependence on specific facilities for military operations
  • Vulnerability of critical bridges and tunnels to both accidents and potential sabotage
  • Limited upgrades to handle increased loads

 

Supply Chain Complexity

Modern defense systems rely on intricate supply chains involving thousands of contractors and subcontractors. This complexity creates multiple potential points of failure:

 

Raw Materials

  • Critical mineral dependencies
  • Limited processing facilities
  • Potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions

Component Manufacturing

  • Specialized electronics producers
  • Precision machining capabilities
  • Quality control requirements

Assembly and Integration

  • Skilled workforce shortages
  • Facility capacity constraints
  • Security clearance requirements

 

The China Factor

Many of these vulnerabilities trace back to China’s quiet dominance in global supply chains. Critical raw materials, electronic components, and industrial chemicals often originate from Chinese sources. This dependency creates strategic risks, particularly in scenarios where China might decide to restrict exports or support adversaries.

While this has yet to significantly impact the war in Ukraine, it remains a distinct possibility…especially should a Trump diplomatic effort fail or stall – or expand.

 

Impact on Military Readiness

These supply chain vulnerabilities affect military readiness in several ways:

 

Reduced Training

  • Limited ammunition for training exercises
  • Delayed maintenance due to parts shortages
  • Restricted live-fire drills

Strategic Reserve Depletion

  • Ammunition stocks below minimum requirements
  • Extended replacement timelines
  • Reduced crisis response capability

Force Projection

  • Logistics bottlenecks limiting deployment options
  • Increased vulnerability to interdiction
  • Reduced sustained operation capability

 

Misplaced Priorities

Another serious consideration is the toxic culture of the long-ballyhooed “military-industrial complex“. That term is a tired trope that has been overused to the point of reducing it to a joke…However, it is very real, and is one of the major axes that is causing the downstream bottleneck that is choking the combat power of Western forces.

For generations, defense contractors have made squeezing as much taxpayer money as possible in technical “peacetime” as high a priority as possible, whether their products worked or not – the Sgt York and Dragon ATGM come immediately to mind. Making products like “dumb” (i.e., “unguided”) artillery ammunition and aircraft bombs is not considered as cost-effective, from a business perspective, as more technically complex – and thus, highly expensive – weapons systems.

The fact that these weapons cannot be produced anywhere near as quickly as modern combat demands – as demonstrated in Ukraine – is not part of the cost-benefit calculations of the commercial military-industrial complex.

 

Addressing the Challenges

Military planners are attempting to address these vulnerabilities through several initiatives:

 

Industrial Base

  • Investing in modernized production facilities
  • Developing workforce training programs
  • Creating redundant supply sources

Infrastructure

  • Identifying critical chokepoints
  • Developing alternative routing options
  • Improving facility protection

Stockpile Management

  • Reassessing minimum stock levels
  • Implementing more robust tracking systems
  • Developing new storage facilities

 

At the same time, those same military planners face the harsh reality that too many civilian leaders in Congress – both outgoing and incoming – received a large amount of cash that put them into a very cushy position, and that getting those same politicians to act against what defense contractors see as their own best interests is going to be an uphill battle, all the way. This will be even harder for Donald Trump, who has dared to speak the unspeakable, that peace needs to break out again.

 

The Near Term Outlook

The combination of industrial capacity limitations and infrastructure vulnerabilities presents a serious challenge to Western military capabilities, and especially to the incoming 47th President. Addressing these issues requires sustained investment and policy attention, potentially including:

  • Defense Industrial Base revitalization
  • Infrastructure hardening and redundancy
  • Supply chain diversification
  • Stockpile expansion
  • International cooperation on critical materials
  • And finally, reining in the military-industrial complex, whether they like it or not

 

The lessons from Ukraine and incidents like the Baltimore bridge collapse underscore the urgent need for comprehensive supply chain resilience in defense planning…They also show the dangers of thinking that business and war are analogous – misapplying the principle of Sun Tzu is actually far more dangerous than dismissing them.

 

 

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

  1. Julian Thompson (1994), Lifeblood of War: Logistics in Armed Conflict
  2. Thomas Ricks (2012), The Generals
  3. James F. Dunnigan (2003), How To Make War, 4th Edition
  4. James F. Dunnigan (1991), Shooting Blanks

 

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To
North Korea: Changing the Calculus through Incompetence

 

 

 



North Korea’s Strategic Pivot: Abandoning Reunification for Military Partnership

Amid the hysteria of the 2024 US Presidential election – seen by many on the world as a pivotal event in the world’s direction for the next generation, at least – there is an increasing amount of talk concerning North Korea’s increasingly militant actions. Most alarming among these is its deployment of combat troops to Ukraine, to aid the Russian war effort there, as that conflict grins through its third year.

The failure of the 2019 Hanoi Summit between then-US President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un marked more than just another setback in US-DPRK relations. It represented a crucial turning point in North Korea’s strategic outlook, leading to its current role as a military supplier to Russia and its apparent abandonment of the long-held dream of peaceful reunification with South Korea.

The reasons for these cascading failures go back as far as 2003, and are the result of a warped view of ‘realpolitik‘, driven by open and naked profit motives which are completely divorced from reality.

The Shadow of History

Since its formal organization in 1948, the totalitarian Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (or DPRK) has been responsible for not simply fomenting wars, but some of the worst, and longest-running, human rights abuses in modern history.

The Pyongyang government’s abysmal mismanagement of the nation has resulted in a brutal prison state, routinely wracked by famines, and whose industrial base remains firmly in the 1970’s, if that. In addition, North Korean intelligence has been routinely kidnapping Japanese citizens since the 1970’s, to train their foreign intelligence operatives (i.e., “spies”) how to act as citizens of western countries.

However, in two critical area’s, the almost obscenely resource-rich North Korea has spared no expense: its nuclear weapons and space launch programs.

While derided by many for their technological backwardness, poor national management, and cultural isolation, in these two critical areas, North Korean capabilities are nothing to be laughed at.

Bolton’s astoundingly bad judgement is what caused Trump’s failure in Hanoi, a decision-tree so bad, it could be seen as a deliberate act of sedition. North Korea’s nuclear strategy has been fundamentally shaped by the fate of other authoritarian leaders who gave up their WMD programs. The overthrow and subsequent deaths of Saddam Hussein in Iraq (2003) and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya (2011), among others, provided “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong Un with compelling evidence that nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantee of regime survival.

The Hanoi Disaster

The 2019 Hanoi Summit failed largely because of fundamentally different expectations. The Trump administration, abysmally advised by the hysterical chickenhawk, then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, then-US President Donald Trump was led to believe that North Korea could be “persuaded” to follow a “Libya model” of denuclearization. This profound misreading of Kim’s priorities doomed the talks before they began.

Kim arrived in Hanoi seeking a gradual approach: partial denuclearization in exchange for significant sanctions relief. The American position – complete denuclearization before any meaningful sanctions relief – was a non-starter for a regime that had learned harsh lessons from history: Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s youthful leader, is well aware of the vicious, gruesome and bloodthirsty cackle of then- (2011) US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the death of Libyan dictator Muammar Gadaffi: “We Came, We Saw, He Died”…after the Libyan dictator had completely caved to Western pressure to abandon his “weapons of mass destruction” programs nerly a decade before, only to have the United States and NATO openly destroy his regime. Muammar Gadaffi was one of the foulest excuses for a human being in modern history, but the West made an agreement with him, then happily broke it at the first opportunity.

Kim Jong Un may be a lot of things, but an idiot, he most certainly is not.

Strategic Reassessment

The Hanoi summit’s collapse triggered a comprehensive reassessment in Pyongyang of North Korea’s strategic position:

  1. Nuclear Strategy
    – Nuclear weapons development needed to be accelerated
    – Its missile testing program needed rapid expansion
    – It needed to publicly acknowledge its nuclear status
  2. Diplomatic Posture
    – Reduced emphasis on US negotiations
    – Strengthened ties with China and Russia
    – Dismissal of South Korean outreach
  3. Economic Planning
    Increased focus on self-reliance
    – Development of sanctions-resistant trade
    – Military industry expansion

The Russian Connection

North Korea’s military-industrial complex, while technologically stalled in the 1970’s for the most part, maintains a massive production capacity for basic weapons systems. Its ability to manufacture artillery ammunition using Soviet-era specifications has made it an ideal supplier for Russia’s war effort, allowing Russian industry the ability to slow its own production to refine and retool, even as western arms industries remain stalled in their production of the same supplies. This partnership offers multiple benefits to Pyongyang:

  1. Economic Advantages
    – Hard currency earnings
    – Technology transfer opportunities
    – Sanctions circumvention
  2. Military Benefits
    – Combat experience for troops
    – Modern battlefield observations
    – Testing of equipment in actual combat
  3. Strategic Gains
    – Stronger ties with a permanent UN Security Council member
    – Reduced international isolation
    – Leverage against US pressure

Of these points, the second – giving its troops modern combat experience – is the most valuable to North korea in the short term. It it very difficult for a military that has not actually fought a war in decades to know what new tools and techniques it should try to implement; armed forces around the world are notoriously conservative (to the point of being hidebound) for a reason, although rarely to the level of North Korea.

Whatever the reality of the fighting in Ukraine, “blooding” North Korean troops there could give them a significant advantage over their South Korean adversaries in a future fight, as South Korean troops have not had any experience in the kind of war currently being fought in Ukraine, despite having a significant technological advantage over their northern opposition.

Abandoning Reunification

The shift away from even theoretical peaceful reunification represents a significant change in North Korean policy. Since the Korean War armistice in 1953, both Korea’s have maintained reunification as an official goal, though with vastly different visions of how it would occur.

This policy shift serves several purposes:

  • Solidifies Kim’s domestic position
  • Justifies increased militarization
  • Enables closer alignment with Russia and China
  • Reduces diplomatic constraints on aggressive actions

 

After a string of public failures to successfully get a satellite into orbit, Pyongyang finally managed to get a reconnaissance satellite, the “Malligyong-1” into orbit (rather like the original US and Soviet launch attempts).

The successful satellite launches demonstrate North Korea’s growing mastery of several critical ICBM technologies, particularly multi-stage rocket separation and long-range guidance systems. The primary technical hurdle remaining for effective ICBM capability is reentry vehicle technology – protecting a nuclear warhead during its hypersonic return through the atmosphere. Russian assistance in this area likely on Kim’s shopping list for providing weapons and troops to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as Russia possesses some of the world’s most advanced reentry technologies.

 

Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, 2024. Public Domain Photo from the Government of North Korea.

 

By early 2024, North Korea had already demonstrated progress in multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) development through tests of the Hwasong-17 ICBM, which appears designed to carry multiple warheads. Their March 2024 test of a new solid-fuel ICBM suggested further advances in this capability. MIRV technology would allow a single missile to carry multiple nuclear warheads, each capable of hitting different targets. This dramatically increases both first-strike capability and the ability to overwhelm missile defense systems.

The combination of proven satellite launch capabilities, potential Russian reentry assistance, and advancing MIRV technology could enable North Korea to deploy a credible nuclear triad system, fundamentally altering the strategic balance in Northeast Asia.

Regional Implications

This strategic realignment has profound implications for Northeast Asian security:

  1. South Korea
    – Increased military tension
    – Reduced diplomatic options
    – Stronger US alliance imperative
  2. Japan
    – Enhanced missile defense urgency
    – Strengthened US security ties
    – Increased military spending justification
  3. China
    – Complicated regional balance
    – Reduced influence over DPRK
    – New strategic calculations needed

The acquisition by North Korea of a credible strategic nuclear capability would represent a catastrophic shift of world power.

Looking Forward

North Korea’s evolution from a state theoretically seeking peaceful reunification to an active military supplier in global conflicts represents a significant shift in Northeast Asian security dynamics. This transformation, rooted in the failures (whether accidental or deliberate) of past diplomatic initiatives and Kim Jong Un’s determination to ensure the survival of his regime, suggests a more militarily active and less diplomatically constrained North Korea in the years ahead.

As this article goes to press, the United States is some four days away from the 2024 Presidential election. There is no way to know what will happen if Donald Trump wins on November 5th – but the outcome of a Harris victory is starkly and painfully clear, because any response they make to Kim’s new course will be either completely incoherent, or wildly overblown.

Choose wisely.

 

 

 

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