Robbing Peter To Pay Paul

Michael Cessna January 12, 2024

It would seem that 2024 is off with a bang, if the Reader will forgive the pun.

Beginning on October 7^th of 2023, of course, Hamas launched its suicidal Don Quixote war with Israel, showing that the debased savagery of the Islamic State is alive and well. Shortly after, on October 13^th, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abey Ahmed announced what can only be termed a policy of “lebensraum” for Ethiopia, demanding free access to the Red Sea. And, as if on cue, the Houthi rebels in Yemen began attacking any unarmed commercial vessels they could draw a bead on in the nautical chokepoint of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, controlling the southern access point to the Red Sea.

Now, as the second week of January 2024 closes, Iran has entered the fray, seizing the oil tanker St. Nikolas off the coast of Oman, in the Arabian Sea, significantly widening the security problem – and potential naval combat area. Iran’s explanation for the seizure is a flimsy claim to Iranian ownership, a claim even flimsier than the excuse of the Houthi’s for attacking ships in the Red Sea.

Obviously, as we reported last week, all of this military action has begun to significantly impact world commerce, as increasing numbers of shipping lines abandon the critical Red Sea route, opting for the much longer transit around the Cape of Good Hope.

The question for most Readers is, obviously, “Where is the US Navy in all of this?” Good question.

The United States Navy is, unquestionably, the most powerful navy the world has ever seen. Disputing that statement is, frankly, ludicrous. The United States currently operates more aircraft carriers for fixed-wing operations than the rest of the world, combined…and this is before the various US Marine Corps aviation squadrons are added to its figures. It operates some seventy-six Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, regarded as the most capable destroyer class ever designed. Likewise, the US Navy maintains amphibious and supply forces that no other nation can match, giving it a truly global reach. It is not an exaggeration to say that a US Navy carrier battle group can deploy more firepower to a region than can be mustered by most nations’ entire militaries.

So – handling the Houthi’s, or even Iran, should present no great trouble for the United States, right?

Well…it’s complicated.

While the United States does, indeed, have a vast and capable military, like the armed forces of Great Britain before it, it has a major problem. It is not really a question of how good your weapons are; the greatest warship ever designed is completely useless if it isn’t where you need it to be, when you need it to be there.

The US military, and specifically the US Navy, cannot be everywhere at once. Aside from the chronic, military-wide problems with both recruiting and retention of personnel, the political leadership of the United States has, for the preceding forty years or so, almost uniformly failed to make even reasonably good choices in economic, military, social and foreign policy decisions. These failed policies have led to critically short numbers of personnel in almost all of the armed services, which translates into too few forces being available to deal with multiple threats. Indeed, while the US Navy, as of 2019, had some four hundred and eighty ships in commission, it could only deploy about two hundred and ninety.

What does this mean in the modern day, of January 2024?

As US and Western industry still struggles to supply the war in Ukraine, that situation is now worse, as the limited supply of ammunition is further divided to support Israel in its war against Hamas. Added to this, is the double threat from Iran and it’s Houthi proxies, a threat that is already damaging world commerce.

And then – there is Communist China…more on that, later.

Many people fail to grasp the impact of world shipping. Like it or not, everything you rely on is tied into global commerce in some way. Even if nothing you directly interact with physically transits the Red Sea, the major delays created will affect the prices of the everyday item you pay for. Likewise, the rising interest and insurance rates caused by the fighting will impact the Reader in a very real way, as those industries have to spread out the damage.

And then – there is Communist China.

A week ago, Communist leader Xi Jinping launched a purge of the upper echelons of the Communist state’s military leadership. While a relatively common practice among Communist states, it remains to be seen if Xi will go to the extent of other Communist dictators.

The end result of actions like this, is universally bad for the capabilities of a nation’s military forces, overall, as it significantly hampers military initiative, in favor of rigid obedience to political dogma – translation: Scare your military enough, and they will be too busy avoiding being shot by your political officers to fight your actual enemies.

However, there are many forms of warfare, and Communist China has learned that throwing money at a problem can make that problem either go away, or at least not bother it…and undermining an enemy while doing so is icing on the cake.

The bottom line? The West is failing. It is failing partially from it’s own success, but mostly from too many decades of throwing pasta at walls to see what sticks. The desire for profit beyond the dreams of avarice has led to a simultaneous weakening of Western industry, and to “good enough” levels of technological and industrial capacity leaking out to nations and groups who hate the West.

In a word: they hate you. It’s not so much that they hate you, personally – but they hate the society you grew up in, and are more than happy – and capable – of burning the world to the ground to spite you.

As of this writing, there are two hundred and ninety-seven days to the 2024 election. One way or another, you need a plan for what happens when we get there.

Assuming, of course, that we get there.

*The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To*

China’s Chips Rule America’s Seas

Paul Collier January 10, 2024

The U.S. Navy has allowed its defense procurement to be infiltrated by the CCP, leaving America’s carriers dependent on Chinese computer chips to operate. The process of allowing the CCP to infiltrate America’s defense industry was a long one, one allowed by the treasonous DNC-CCP and its token opposition, the GOP-DNC.

A report from the data analytics firm Govini alleges China’s infiltration of our defense supply chain is so profound that we cannot hope to lock them out without completely dismantling and rebuilding the whole system. Again, remember, this was a slow process that happened under both DNC-CCP administrations and GOP-DNC administrations.

The report claims, “U.S. domestic production capacity is a shriveled shadow of its former self. Crucial categories of industry for U.S. national defense are no longer built in any of the 50 states. With just 25 well-constructed attacks, using any of a variety of means, an adversarial military planner could cripple much of America’s manufacturing apparatus for producing advanced weapons.”

From Forbes:

… over 40 percent of the semiconductors that sustain DoD weapons systems and associated infrastructure are now sourced from China. Second, from 2005 to 2020, the number of Chinese suppliers in the U.S. defense-industrial supply chain has quadrupled. And third, between 2014 and 2022, American dependence on Chinese electronics increased by 600 percent.

The seriousness of the vulnerability of American weapons systems and munitions to Chinese supply and control is vividly illustrated by the number of Chinese supplied semiconductors on which they run.

According to Govini, the U.S.’ newest Ford-class aircraft carriers depend on over 6,500 Chinese-sourced semiconductors to operate. Many other U.S. Navy ships and aircraft are similarly dependent on thousands of Chinese semiconductors to function as instruments of U.S. defense and power projection.

The people who allowed this to happen are all enemy combatants, in this writer’s opinion, and should be facing capital offense charges for their crimes against the American republic, and that includes the Presidents who either did nothing to reverse this or facilitated it happening. No American President, no Secretary of Defense should ever have allowed the Chinese Communist Party to become involved in any way, shape, or form in our defense manufacturing.

They did this in exchange for wealth, for power, that was meant to only enrich their own lives and those of their families. They sold America to the CCP for a metaphorical bowl of soup. May God have mercy on their reprobate souls and may he give us Americans to take back the reins of power and lawfully bring to justice the men and women who were part of this seditious scheme.

Let us also remember that vengeance is the Lord’s, not ours, and if it is His will that no such power will come to Americans again then let us face our righteous judgment with joy in praise of Him.

The Lion Stirs – The Murky War Upsetting World Commerce

Michael Cessna January 5, 2024

In the week before Christmas of 2023, there are several large-scale wars going on, with several more potential wars in the making: Russia-Ukraine; Israel-Hamas/Hezbollah; the ongoing offensive of pro-democracy rebels closing in on the fascist junta in Myanmar/Burma; the never-ending battles across the African Sahel region, and the potential Venezuelan invasion of Guyana.

But, lurking in the background is another potential conflict, one that may be impacting and aiding the neo-con agenda: Ethiopia vs. Eritrea.

Ethiopia is unique in history, as the only African state that was never colonized by any European power. Although conquered and occupied by Italy in the years immediately preceding World War 2, that occupation was short-lived, as the country was fully liberated from Italian rule by 1943.

A truly ancient state, Ethiopia maintained its status as an imperial monarchy until 1974, with the Communist revolution that placed a brutal Marxist-Leninist government in charge of the country. This government would, in turn, be deposed in another revolution in 1989, as part of the wave of Communist states around the world that collapsed as the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact imploded, leaving Communist “economies” to wither on the vine.

In the aftermath of the Derg’s collapse, Ethiopia was left unable to stop a popular referendum in one of its most critical provinces – Eritrea – that resulted in that state becoming independent in 1993. While this may seem like a random “factoid”, it is actually of enormous significance.

Eritrea – long part of Ethiopia – occupies the coast of the Red Sea, and as such, was Ethiopia’s only access to world commerce…and after a series of wars in the 1990’s and early-2000’s, Eritrea has effectively blocked Ethiopia from using its Red Sea ports. With a population of over one hundred and seven million, Ethiopia ranks 13^th in the top fifteen nations in the world by population – and is the only one of those states that is completely landlocked.

This translates to Ethiopia being forced to pay exorbitant, even “extortionate”, fees to export its goods to market through its only access to the Red Sea, via the Port of Djibouti, which handles an estimated 95% of Ethiopia’s foreign commerce.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, takes this issue seriously…seriously enough, that he made statements on the 13^th of October of 2023, that explicitly underlined Ethiopia’s ‘right to access’ to the Red Sea. Understandably, this rattled every other nation in the “Horn of Africa”, all of whom are vastly outnumbered in both population and military capacity by Ethiopia.

These remarks came less than two weeks after the Hamas terror attacks on Israel that commenced on October 7^th. As a result, the wider world – obviously – paid little the comments little attention. But then, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen chose to insert themselves into that conflict on the side of Hamas, on October 19^th…clearly a coincidence, surely.

And then, on January 1^st, Ahmed dropped another bombshell, announcing that Ethiopia had inked a deal with the breakaway Somali province of Somaliland to use their port of Berbera to access the Gulf of Aden – well outside the current shooting gallery – reputedly in exchange of recognition of the breakaway state. This has obviously infuriated Somalia, which has never relinquished its claim to the province, despite the region being de facto independent since 1991 and the region’s independence being ratified in a referendum in 2001.

Now, in the first week of 2024, the Houthi missile attacks and piracy have attracted the attention of major powers around the world, many of whom have joined “Operation Prosperity Guardian”, in an attempt to guarantee safe passage through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait…albeit too late for world shipping giant Maersk, who announced on January 5^th that they were ordering all of their vessels not already in the Red Sea to divert around southern Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, to avoid the fighting. While this, alone, will cause serious disruptions to global trade, many more cargo carrier lines are virtually certain to not take the risk and divert their vessels, for the same reason as Maersk. This could easily lead to a reprise of the shipping disruptions that happened at the height of the COVID pandemic.

As a result, there are increasingly serious calls within Washington circles to attack Iran directly, as they are the Houthi’s major source of money and weapons. This would be a Godsend to neo-con chickenhawks desperate to finally get the United States into their long-desired war with Iran…

…Which brings us back to Ethiopia’s moves on its future access to the Red Sea.

Ethiopia has three options: they can a) maintain the status quo, with limited access to world shipping solely through Djibouti’s port; b) conclude their deal to access breakaway Somaliland’s ports; or – c) invade at least part of Eritrea, to capture at least that nation’s port of Assab.

Obviously, the status quo is not working for Ethiopia; if it were, there would have been no need for the deal with Somaliland. Djibouti’s port is increasingly limited in capacity, and has little physical room to expand operations, which will soon severely stunt Ethiopia’s economic output…Conversely, the deal with Somaliland risks war with Somalia, as recognition of Somaliland’s independence would almost certainly gut Somalia’s hopes at stabilizing their nation, which was only reunified in 2012. Somalia would have to launch a military campaign to invade the territory to bring it to heel, presenting Ethiopia with the option of going to war with Somalia in support of a breakaway province, something Ethiopia would be loath to encourage, considering recent history.

As well, invading Eritrea to capture Assab carries significant risks on its own, because – all other things being equal in the absence of the current conflict in the Bab-el-Mandeb – Ethiopia could well face a UN-led coalition of military powers “riding to the rescue” of what has been described as the “North Korea of Africa”.

None of these seem like viable solutions, on their own…Unless the world is focused on a different series of conflicts that would combine to divert attention away from Ethiopia “readjusting” the local map, and allowing Addis Ababa to present the world with a fait accompli in the aftermath of the Houthi’s inevitable neutralization, as well as the likelihood of a massive US-Iran war…

…While the foregoing may sound like the implication of a dastardly plot on Ethiopia’s part, it is not…well, mostly “not.” But, the timeline of Ethiopia’s rhetoric regarding its right-to-access to the Red Sea is certainly suspicious, and indicates some level of foreknowledge of events beginning ion October of 2023, and having active plans and options ready to go.

There are plenty of players in this global chess tournament, and too many “leaders” in the West – and elsewhere – are arrogantly blind to the knives in the dark, thinking that “bit players” cannot harm them.

…Rather like Britain, France and the United States from the 1950’s to the 1980’s.

Word to the wise.

Iran Escalates Red Sea Tensions

Michael Cessna January 1, 2024

The Islamic state of Iran has significantly escalated tensions in the Red Sea, by deploying the warship Alborz to the crucial Bab el-Mandeb Strait a day after US Navy helicopters drove off Iranian-backed Houthi pirates of Yemen following their attempted seizure of the Singapore-registered container ship Maersk Hangzhou, sinking several Houthi boats and killing an estimated ten pirates, on December 30, according to CENTCOM.

This also comes some 10 days after the Liberian-flagged tanker MV Chem Pluto was struck by a suspected Iranian drone while at sea, en-route from Saudi Arabia to India on December 23rd.

The Alborz, an Alvand-class frigate, was originally bought by the Imperial Iranian Navy in 1971.

The move by Iran raises the distinct possibility of hostile action between the Iranian vessel and the various, dozen-or-so warships of Operation Prosperity Guardian, assembled in late-December to counter repeated missile and boarding attacks on international shipping, claiming to be countering the Israeli response to the unprovoked attack on its civilians that began on October 7 by the Hamas terrorists operating in the Gaza Strip.

The Freedomist will continue to monitor the situation as it develops.

Updated at 5:50pm CST, with information and links to the attack on MV Chem Pluto.

China Signals It Might Soon Divest Itself of U.S. Treasury Holdings

Paul Collier December 20, 2023

A top Chinese economist named Yu Yongding appears to be prepping the Chinese people and the world for a future move that will see the fascist state divest itself of all U.S. Treasury holdings. The economist wrote an editorial that would never have been published without CCP approval giving “economic” reasons why China should divest from U.S. Treasury holdings.

The move could be seen as a bargaining chip, and it might prove to be that, but it could also be a move to prepare the world for a near-future action, one that would most likely happen should the DNC-CCP not prevent Donald Trump from winning back the Presidency in 2024.

China urged to cut US Treasury holdings – www.thestandard.com.hk

Excerpt:

China must systematically decrease its holdings of US Treasuries due to low interest rates and the potential risks over America’s growing net debt overseas, a top mainland economist says.

Yu Yongding, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences academician, said the ratio of US national debt to gross domestic product will persistently increase, signifying a continuous deterioration of the country’s overseas net debt over time.

The ongoing interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve may also accelerate the deterioration of the country’s overseas net debt, he added.

China, said Yu, must accelerate the adjustment of its overseas asset structure and enhance returns on overseas net assets. To achieve this, it should reduce the proportion of foreign exchange reserves in its overseas assets, he said.

Read Full Article

Multi-National Task Force Looks to Tackle Houthi Threat in Red Sea

Paul Collier December 19, 2023

A multinational task force led by the U.S. is set to confront the growing Houthi threat to world trade in the Red Sea. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said of the formation of the task force, “This is an international challenge that demands collective action.”

From dailycaller.com

Excerpt:

The U.S. and allies on Monday announced a multinational task force aimed at undercutting attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea as the Houthi rebels put a vice on shipping through a critical waterway, the Pentagon said early Tuesday in Bahrain.

Operation Prosperity Guardian will involve a multitude of nations including the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain and build on an existing regional task force established to ensure maritime security, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said while on a tour of the Middle East. The Iran-backed Houthis, based in Yemen, have launched barrages of missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping in recent weeks, while U.S. warships scramble to come to their rescue.

“This is an international challenge that demands collective action,” Austin said in the statement.

Read Full Article

Israel Kills Its Own Hostages

Paul Collier December 18, 2023

Three hostages that appear to have escaped captivity from Hamas met a tragic end when Israeli soldiers mistook the hostages for Hamas attackers and killed all three. The tragedy happened in Gaza city. Netanyahu called the incident one of the “burdens of war” and that it “broke (his) heart, broke the entire nation’s heart.”

Hamas has said it will not be releasing any more hostages until Israel stops attacking Hamas altogether after the incident. Israeli military officials said the soldiers who killed the hostages were not following the correct protocol.

From Israel’s own account, it appears the hostages approached the Israeli soldiers with their arms up, raising a white flag, but that didn’t stop one soldier from yelling “terrorists,” so everyone opened fire, killing two and injuring one.

The injured soldier fled for shelter and continued to try to plead with the soldiers to help them, only to be eventually killed as well.

Protests have picked up momentum from Israelis who see this action as yet another example of gross incompetence, deadly gross incompetence from the IDF, with Netanyahu receiving the brunt of the blame for that perceived incompetence.

The incident also raises more doubts as to how many Israeli citizens were killed by Hamas as opposed by their own military, which does not in any way exonerate Hamas from intentionally targeting civilians, including infants, for slaughter and rape as a terroristic weapon of war.

Norwegian Tanker ‘Strinda’ Struck By Houthi Missile

Michael Cessna December 12, 2023

RED SEA, 12.12.2023, 1100hrs CST – The Japanese-owned, Norwegian-flagged general oil and chemical tanker MK STRINDA was struck by a missile fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen, while transiting the Bab el Mandeb strait, late on the 11th. the ship reported damage and a fire, but reported no casualties.

The Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Mason responded to the tanker’s distress call, and is rendering assistance as of press time. The Mason, along with other US Navy warships, have engaged Houthi missiles and drones fire at Israel as part of the Houthi’s

This is the latest in the escalating piratical activities of the Iran-backed terror group in recent weeks, including their helicopter assault to seize of the M/V Galaxy Leader and their attempted seizure of the M/V Central Park.

The Houthi group is a religious sect that is the main party in a civil war that has raged since 2014. Although the hard-line Shi’a Muslim group is reported to be receiving assistance from many corners, no state has recognized them as a legitimate state. They were, and remain, a group of bandits, pirates and terrorists.

The Freedomist will continue to monitor the situation.

The Fall of Poland is Official as Far-Left Globalist Seizes Control

Paul Collier December 12, 2023

Far-Left radical leftist Donald Tusk has won the Prime Minister seat of Poland after the former incumbent PM Mateusz Morawiecki saw his party and coalition partners fail to muster enough votes to keep him in power, giving the reins to a seditious globalist who intends on destroying Poland’s efforts to regain its sovereignty.

Only 190 Poles in the new parliament voted to retain the conservative PM, referred to as an authoritarian by far-left publications even as a true authoritarian prepares to destroy Poland from within.

The Poles voted for this, so what happens next is entirely of their own doing. Expect the Poles to become a half-rate satellite power of the globalist Empire the EU represents. Expect Poles to lose more real freedoms while the cult of death that is leftism gives them the liberty that leads to death, sexual “liberty,” including legalized murdering of unborn children so their population can “enjoy” sex without consequence, to the detriment of the unborn and their own nationhood.

This writer mourns the loss of Poland as one of the beacons of light in a sea of darkness that is the European continent.

Houthi Goverment in Yemen Announces Blockade of Bab el-Mandeb

Michael Cessna December 10, 2023

YEMEN – In a press release dated December 9th, the rebel Houthi government of Yemen announced its intention to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb strait, at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, in order to halt all maritime commerce going to or from Israel, including – significantly – vessels of any nation, including any vessel owned by Israeli companies or individuals. This presents a direct and immediate threat to the Freedom of the Seas doctrine of international law, as there is no way to verify the details of vessels in the Red Sea without physically stopping them. This also places a considerable portion of world commerce in immediate jeopardy, as the Red Sea is one of the main conduits of global commercial traffic, not simply limited to the oil industry.

This comes after weeks of rising tensions, as the rebel Houthi regime has repeatedly attacked and captured commercial vessels in the Red Sea, while firing ballistic missiles supplied by Iran towards Israel. Both United States and French Navy warships have fired in defense of vessel attacked by Houthi forces. These rash actions could lead to an all-out naval war in the Red Sea.

*Red Sea, 2005. Photo credit: NASA. Public Domain.*

As of press time, the United States has not issued a statement on the situation, although rumors swirl about some form of joint, direct-action against the Houthis.

Keep watch here for further developments.

EDIT, 12.11.2023, 1700hrs CST

A link from the Telegraph shows an estimate of the world’s shipping container traffic – some 12% of the world’s shipping containers, roughly 15 million units – that could be impacted should fighting in the Bab el Mandeb escalate…..

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