May 9, 2026

Military

The Digital Lifeline Under Threat

 

 

 

 



With all the craziness of the last six weeks, it’s easy to become enraptured by all the “glitz-bang-pow“, and to lose track of the truly important things…like internet access, for example.

Much of the crucial digital lifelines of the modern global economy lie largely unseen and unprotected beneath the oceans. Submarine cables — bundled fiber-optic threads wrapped in layers of protective materials — carry an estimated 99% of international data traffic, representing an estimated $10 trillion in daily financial transactions. Clearly, these cables are vital components of any national infrastructure…and, just as clearly, they are very high-priority targets in any war scenario. Despite their critical importance, these cables remain surprisingly vulnerable to both accidental damage and deliberate sabotage, creating an asymmetric vulnerability that security experts increasingly view as a critical national security concern.

 

Recent incidents have highlighted this vulnerability. In late 2023, and again in late 2024, multiple cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged within weeks of each other, including the Svalbard cable connecting Norway’s remote Arctic research station to the mainland. While officials initially cited “technical problems,” subsequent investigations pointed to deliberate actions, with suspicion falling on Russian vessels that had been tracked in proximity to the damaged sections. Similar incidents have occurred in the Mediterranean and Red Sea, where the timing and pattern of damage suggested coordinated action rather than accidental encounters with ship anchors or fishing equipment…which, given the immediate impacts, should be surprising to no one, as the war in Ukraine continues to rage.

The security implications extend far beyond temporary internet disruptions. Major financial centers like London, New York, and Singapore depend on millisecond-level transmission speeds for trading operations, with even brief outages potentially causing billions in economic damage. Military communications, intelligence sharing between allies, and diplomatic channels all rely on these same physical pathways, creating a strategic vulnerability that potential adversaries have clearly recognized.

Unlike traditional military targets, undersea cables present adversaries with an ideal gray-zone target. Damage can be plausibly denied as accidental, attribution is extremely difficult, and repairs can take weeks depending on the location and conditions. This provides hostile actors with the ability to cause significant disruption while remaining below the threshold of activities that would trigger conventional military responses.

The technical challenge of defending these cables is substantial. The global submarine cable network spans over 750,000 miles, often in international waters beyond territorial jurisdiction. Cable routes are publicly documented for maritime safety, making their locations easily accessible to potential saboteurs. Monitoring such vast distances presents an almost impossible surveillance challenge, especially in deep ocean areas where depths exceed 3,000 meters.

The “CS Dependable”, cable layer ship with a modern stern sheave design. Picture taken at the Port of Astoria, Oregon, 2006. CCA/3.0. Photo by Nsandel.

 

Of course, this has been happening since undersea cables were first laid in the 19th Century, most notably when the United States cut Spanish telegraph cables in both Cuba and the Philippines theaters of the Spanish-American War. During World War I, one of Britain’s first and most significant strategic moves came just hours after declaring war in August 1914, when the cable ship “CS Alert” severed Germany’s five transatlantic cables near the English Channel. This operation, codenamed Operation Telekom, effectively cut Germany’s direct communication links with the Americas and much of the world. Britain simultaneously took control of most neutral cable stations, forcing German diplomatic and military communications onto easily intercepted wireless channels or through cables that passed through British-controlled territory.

The British established “Room 40“, a specialized naval intelligence unit that interceded and decoded German messages, providing critical intelligence. The most famous success came with the interception and decryption of the Zimmermann Telegram in 1917, which revealed Germany’s attempt to entice Mexico into attacking the United States — a diplomatic catastrophe that helped bring America into the war.

In World War II, Britain expanded these capabilities with Operation ‘Cutting’. The Royal Navy again targeted German undersea cables, but added sophisticated tapping operations. Combined with the codebreaking work at Bletchley Park, these undersea operations provided crucial intelligence on German naval movements, particularly U-boat operations, significantly contributing to Allied victory in the Battle of the Atlantic.

Modern cable attacks no longer require crude methods like physical cutting. Advanced submersibles can quickly and silently install tapping devices without severing cables, allowing for collection without detection. Both the Russian and Chinese navies are known to operate specialized submarines and surface ships equipped for undersea operations near critical cable infrastructure, including the Yantar, a Russian “research vessel” observed loitering near critical cable junctions in the Atlantic.

These strategic vulnerabilities are magnified by the concentration of key connection points. Cable landing stations — where submarine cables connect to terrestrial networks — represent critical sea-based chokepoints, with certain locations in Egypt, Malaysia, and Sicily serving as hubs for dozens of major cables. A modern, coordinated attack on multiple landing stations could severely disrupt global connectivity in ways that would overwhelm the limited redundancy built into the system.

Despite the growing awareness of these vulnerabilities, international legal protections remain inadequate. The 1884 Convention for the Protection of Submarine Telegraph Cables provides limited safeguards, while the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea only offers general provisions against deliberate damage. Enforcement mechanisms are virtually non-existent in international waters, creating a legal gray zone that mirrors the operational one.

As tensions rise between major powers, enhancing resilience against cable disruption has become an urgent security priority. Proposed measures include increased naval patrols near critical infrastructure, enhanced monitoring through seabed sensors, diversification of cable routes, and hardening of physical infrastructure. However, the scale of the challenge means complete protection remains impossible, leaving this critical infrastructure as a persistent vulnerability in an increasingly contested global environment.

One thing people frequently fail to understand – an outgrowth of the increasing sociological separation of the civilian and military spheres – is that naval warfare is far more than dramatic gun battles at sea, determined amphibious assaults, and exciting launches of fighter planes from the decks of aircraft carriers.”War“, as such, has been a term too frequently applied outside of its true domain, diluting public understanding of its implications: Sure, “war” is scary and destructive in general, but there are plenty of avenues of attack that are certainly not part of the ‘war on poverty’. This is why the Imperial Japanese Navy shelled a beach in Santa Barbara, California in 1942…which came as a hell of a surprise to local residents, and which had some very unforeseen consequences that succeeded in damaging the United States – not enough to win the war, but enough to instill distrust, the more people thought about it.

People concerned for not only their physical, but financial, security, need to start relearning how militaries think, because while the civilian may not care much about warfare, warfare cares very much about you.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

The Century Circle – Japan Returns to Carrier Operations

 

 

 



As February of 2025 winds down, with all the manufactured hysteria from the political and social extreme-Left in the United States, and an increasingly nervous European Union facing the reality that the Trump administration is serious about not playing ‘patty-cake’ with them anymore, and with the increasingly dire situation in Central Africa, an observer could be forgiven for thinking that Asia is a calm reflecting pool…but things are stirring, and as angry as most states are at Communist Chinese posturing in the South China Sea, a different dragon has been stirring, that is worrying – or should be worrying – every nation in the region.

At the end of World War 2, the victorious American occupiers imposed a new constitution on Japan that “renounced war”. While certainly understandable, given the events of World War 2 in the Pacific, the notion of “renouncing war as a sovereign right of the state” was a creature mostly of Douglas MacArthur’s unbelievable ego. The end result was that the United States was forced to anchor defending Japan as a core concept of its strategy for the next six decades.

Map of Japanese offensive in Southeast Asia in 1941. United States Military Academy Department of History. Public Domain.

 

Restricted by Article 9 of its constitution, Japan maintained nothing more than a well-armed coast guard and a tiny army. This tiny “self defense force” (the “JSDF”), created only in 1954, was barely large enough to maintain internal order and disaster relief, much less actually “defend” the island nation against large and aggressive states like the USSR and Communist China…that was the job of the United States, because it was the US that hamstrung the Japanese state from effectively defending itself.

For most of the Cold War, this situation remained the status quo. Fortunately, no serious test of Japan’s defenses – or the US plan for the same – occurred. But, as the “Global War On Terror” (the “GWOT”) began to wind down with the end of George W. Bush Presidency and the ascension of Barack Obama, Tokyo suddenly noticed that the United States had become very lukewarm about it’s own defenses, and that there seemed to be a real reluctance in Washington to care very much about the defense of Asia. To be sure, there was a lot of talk about “pivoting towards China“, but there was not a lot of action. As recruiting numbers began falling in the post-GWOT period, the US Navy had to lay up more and more ships, as there were too few sailors to crew all the ships the Navy knew that it needed.

Because of these post-GWOT developments, Japanese leaders watched with increasing alarm as the United States seemed to increasingly care very little, in any real sense, about its long-time ally in the Philippines having to face off against the massive Chinese Communist state – and if the US was seemingly willing to abandon the Philippines to more than lip-service, what did that imply for Japan?

The only answer for Japan was rearmament.

But…What about Article 9? A large segment of the Japanese population – well-versed in the abuses and horrors of the Imperial military’s Shogun-like rule during the war years – were adamantly, even hysterically, opposed to any kind of change to Article 9. But Tokyo, not having any other options, began to take steps to rearm.

The Japanese Army and Air Force are, for the most part, capable and effective forces, if far too small for their missions. The Army is relatively easy to expand, while the Air Force would take more time, but still can expand in a viable timeframe. But the real problem was the Japanese Navy.

Naval forces are tremendously expensive entities, no matter their fighting capabilities. Building a force to significantly augment – or replace – the US Navy, even at a low level, required an entirely new take on Japan’s naval strategy…because that would require aircraft carriers, something Japan has not operated at any level since 1945.

Beginning in 2010, however, Japan began to do just that.

Japan’s recent transformation of its Izumo-class “helicopter destroyers” into aircraft carriers capable of operating F-35B strike fighters marks a significant shift in both Japanese defense policy and regional power dynamics. This development, while technically maintaining Japan’s constitutionally-mandated defensive posture, represents the country’s first carrier capability since World War II.

And, given the potential of carrier warfare – which Japan was the first to actually demonstrate – this naturally concerns any state within the range of Japanese shipping.

The modified Izumo and Kaga, each displacing around 24,000 tons, make them considerably smaller than America’s supercarriers but align with a growing trend toward light carriers, both among Asian navies and in other navies worldwide. The vessels’ new capability to operate F-35Bs provides Japan with significant power projection abilities, particularly valuable given the country’s island geography and increasing regional tensions.

More importantly, this capability serves as a “training test bed” for modern Japanese naval officers to relearn those skills that disappeared after 1945.

This naval evolution reflects the reality of Japan’s post-2010 strategic environment. China’s rapidly expanding naval capabilities, including the start of construction on multiple aircraft carriers, as well as attempts at building artificial island bases, have altered the maritime balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. North Korea’s continued missile development and nuclear program add another layer of complexity to these challenges.

The Indo-Pacific Region. Red circle/oval roughly depicts the Indian Ocean region. Blue circle/oval covers the Pacific region. Green oval covers ASEAN. Yellow overlay covers the Indo Pacific. 2020 image from Eric Gaba. CCA/4.0 International

The carriers also represent a significant psychological shift. Post-war Japan has deliberately avoided capabilities that could be seen as offensive weapons, especially aircraft carriers, but including both strategic bombers and long-range missiles. The decision to operate carriers, even if designated as “multi-purpose escort ships,” signals Japan’s growing comfort with maintaining military capabilities well beyond strictly defensive systems.

However, these vessels serve multiple roles beyond power projection. Their ability to support humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations proved valuable during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. In an era of increasing natural disasters and climate-related challenges, this flexibility adds significant value to Japan’s maritime capabilities.

The international reaction has been notably mixed. While the United States strongly supports Japan’s military modernization, China has previously expressed concern about what it perceives as Japanese remilitarization. Other regional nations, particularly those with historical grievances against Japan, watch these developments carefully, though many quietly welcome a stronger Japanese presence as a counterbalance to growing Chinese influence.

From a technical perspective, the F-35B’s capabilities significantly enhance these ships’ effectiveness, although the numbers the carriers can operate are very small. The aircraft’s stealth characteristics and advanced sensors, combined with its ability to operate from austere locations, provide Japan with new options for defending its remote island chains and maintaining maritime awareness across vast oceanic areas.

The carriers also enable closer integration with allied forces, particularly the U.S. Marine Corps and British Royal Navy, which operate similar F-35B aircraft. This interoperability enhances Japan’s ability to participate in multinational operations and strengthens its strategic partnerships beyond the U.S. alliance.

Japan’s perspective on its role in World War II, however, remains a source of both internal debate and international tension. Unlike Germany’s direct confrontation with its Nazi past, Japan’s approach to its wartime history has been more nuanced and, at times, contradictory.

The mainstream Japanese narrative acknowledges the war’s devastating impact while often framing Japan as both aggressor and victim. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, along with the firebombing of major cities, feature prominently in Japanese collective memory. However, discussions of Japan’s own wartime actions, particularly in China, Korea, the Philippines, and Southeast Asia, tend to be more muted in public discourse.

This selective historical memory manifests in ongoing controversies, such as debates over history textbooks’ treatment of events like the Nanjing Massacre or the comfort women issue. Official apologies have been made by various Japanese governments, but these are sometimes undermined by statements from individual politicians or visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are among those honored.

Younger generations of Japanese increasingly view the war through a different lens, focusing more on its lessons for peace and Japan’s postwar achievements. However, rising regional tensions, particularly with China, have led to renewed interest in military history and debates about Japan’s proper role in international security.

Although the Japanese government’s position generally emphasizes Japan’s post-war commitment to peace while avoiding detailed examination of wartime conduct, neighboring countries are very worried that the dragon of the Kanto Plain is reawakening, which is a thing all those states fear.

This current situation is almost a textbook care of “unintended consequences”, as a different path than a self-aggrandizing imposition of idiotic Utopianism would likely have made this step of Japanese rearmament more palatable to a nervous region.

Actions have consequences, and those consequences are usually very visible, if one cares enough to look ahead, and act responsibly.

 

 

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

  1. Wayne P Hughes Jr. USN (Ret.) (2018), Fleet Tactics and Naval Operations, Third Edition
  2. Julian Thompson (1994), Lifeblood of War: Logistics in Armed Conflict
  3. Thomas Ricks (2012), The Generals
  4. James F. Dunnigan (2003), How To Make War, 4th Edition
  5. James F. Dunnigan (1991), Shooting Blanks

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Mega-Disasters – The Fears No One Wants To Mention

 

 

 

 



With all the continuous bombardment from all quarters about political-this, and war-that, sometimes, we need to step back, take a breath and consider something completely different. There are more things in theworld than politics, war or even high-tech-that-really-isn’t.

And this week, we’re going to revisit something that people don’t like thinking about, because they have been taught that they can do nothing about them, and neither can their governments…Like most things in this arena, though, that is not really true. So, this week, we’re going to talk about the “End of the World“.

While this was quite a popular topic about fifteen years ago, that is over a century in both dog and TV years…but the subjects still remain…Earth’s history includes numerous catastrophic events that dwarf anything in human experience. While rare, these “megadisasters” remain possible future scenarios that scientists actively study and monitor.

Megatsunamis represent a particularly dramatic threat, dwarfing regular tsunami waves. While typical tsunamis might reach heights of 30 feet, megatsunamis can tower over 100 feet tall. The most dramatic example in recent geological history occurred 66 million years ago when the Chicxulub asteroid impact generated waves possibly reaching heights of several thousand feet. More recently, in 1958, Alaska’s Lituya Bay experienced a megatsunami reaching 1,720 feet – the highest wave ever recorded – when a magnitude 7.8 earthquake triggered a massive landslide.

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, while devastating with waves up to 100 feet high and causing over 230,000 deaths across multiple countries, pales in comparison to true megatsunamis. This event, triggered by a magnitude 9.1 earthquake, demonstrates the destructive power of “conventional” tsunamis, but megatsunamis operate on an entirely different scale.

The 1958 Lituya Bay megatsunami in Alaska remains the benchmark for these extreme events. When a magnitude 7.8 earthquake triggered a massive landslide, 90 million tons of rock plunged into the narrow bay. The resulting wave stripped vegetation off slopes up to 1,720 feet high – more than three times the height of the Washington Monument. Remarkably, despite its immense power, the wave’s effects were largely contained within the bay’s unique geography.

However, scientists are particularly concerned about the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands. Studies suggest that a massive flank collapse of this volcano could trigger a megatsunami affecting the entire Atlantic Basin, including the eastern seaboard of the United States and canada. Models indicate that such an event could generate initial waves over 3,000 feet high, which, while diminishing over distance, could still reach the American East Coast with heights of 15-25 meters (50-80 feet). Cities from Miami to Boston could face devastating impacts hours after the initial collapse. While some researchers debate the likelihood and potential scale of such an event, the geological evidence of previous collapses in the Canary Islands suggests this scenario deserves serious consideration in long-term disaster planning.

La Palma Island, home of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, running along the spine of the island. USGS image, via Landsat 8, 2016. Public Domain.

So-called “supervolcanoes” pose an even more comprehensive global threat. These massive volcanic systems, like Yellowstone in Wyoming or Toba in Indonesia, contain magma chambers many times larger than conventional volcanoes. The last super-eruption occurred approximately 26,500 years ago at Lake Taupo, New Zealand. A Yellowstone super-eruption would eject thousands of cubic kilometers of ash into the atmosphere, potentially triggering a “volcanic winter” lasting several years. The resulting climate disruption could devastate global agriculture and ecosystems. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, in the Philippines, which destroyed Clark Air Base, lowered global temperatures by an estimated 0.5°C.

The June 12, 1991 eruption column from Mount Pinatubo taken from Clark Air Base. Photo by R.P. Holitt, USGS. Public Domain.

But Pinatubo was small compared to Tambora. The Mount Tambora eruption of 1815, in modern day Indonesia was so massive, it caused the “Year Without A Summer“, in 1816. Global temperatures dropped almost a full degree in Fahrenheit. Among the effects, were near-total crop failures across the globe, leading to the last time widespread famine was observed in North America.

Modern supervolcano monitoring has revealed these sleeping giants are far more dynamic than previously thought. Yellowstone’s massive magma chamber “breathes,” causing the ground to rise and fall by several inches over decades. These movements, while fascinating to scientists, often trigger public anxiety about an imminent eruption – fears that experts generally consider premature.

The last truly massive super-eruption transformed global climate during the Stone Age. Indonesia’s Toba volcano erupted approximately 74,000 years ago, ejecting an estimated 2,800 cubic kilometers of material – enough to cover the state of Texas in 15 feet of ash. Some researchers suggest this event created a global volcanic winter that may have reduced the early human population to just a few thousand individuals, though this hypothesis remains debated.

Today, there are about 20 known supervolcanoes worldwide. Besides Yellowstone, significant ones include California’s Long Valley Caldera, New Zealand’s Taupo Volcanic Zone, and Bolivia’s Cerro Galan. Each presents unique monitoring challenges. The Campi Flegrei supervolcano near Naples, Italy, poses particular concern due to its location near a major metropolitan area. Recent ground deformation there has led authorities to raise alert levels, though immediate danger remains low. Scientists emphasize that supervolcano systems typically provide warning signs months or years before major eruptions.

But perhaps the most dramatic potential megadisaster comes from space. Large asteroid impacts, like the Chicxulub event that contributed to the dinosaurs’ extinction, can fundamentally alter Earth’s climate and ecosystems. The Chicxulub impactor, estimated at 6-10 miles wide, released energy equivalent to 10 billion Hiroshima bombs. The impact created a crater 93 miles wide and triggered global wildfires, acid rain, and years of darkness from atmospheric debris.

The threat of cosmic impacts moved from scientific theory to witnessed reality during the 2013 Chelyabinsk event in Russia. The meteor, only about 20 meters across, exploded in an air burst with the force of roughly 400-500 kilotons of TNT, damaging thousands of buildings and injuring about 1,500 people. Most injuries came from broken glass as the shock wave blew out windows across the region. Remarkably, this relatively small object released energy equivalent to about 26-33 Hiroshima bombs.

Arizona’s Barringer Meteor Crater stands as America’s best-preserved impact site, offering crucial insights into cosmic collisions. Created approximately 50,000 years ago by a nickel-iron meteor only about 160 feet across, the crater’s nearly mile-wide diameter demonstrates the immense energy released in even moderate impacts. The meteor struck with the force of about 10 megatons of TNT, equivalent to a significant thermonuclear weapon.

The Burckle Impact Event, believed to have occurred around 3000 BCE in the Indian Ocean, may represent a crucial link between cosmic impacts and human history. Some researchers suggest this oceanic impact could have generated massive tsunamis affecting early civilizations, potentially inspiring various flood myths found in multiple cultures’ histories. While controversial, this theory highlights how impacts might have influenced human development.

The 1994 collision of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter provided scientists their first opportunity to observe a major impact in real-time. The fragmented comet’s pieces, some over a mile wide, slammed into Jupiter over several days, creating Earth-sized dark spots in the gas giant’s atmosphere. This event served as a cosmic wake-up call, demonstrating that large impacts aren’t merely historical events but ongoing phenomena in our solar system.

A NASA Hubble Space Telescope (HST) image of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, taken on May 17, 1994. When the comet was observed here, its train of 21 icy fragments stretched across 1.1 million km (710 thousand miles) of space, or 3 times the distance between Earth and the Moon. The image was taken in red light. Image from NASA. Public Domain.

These various events highlight different aspects of the impact threat: Chelyabinsk showed how even relatively small objects can cause significant damage, Barringer demonstrates the long-lasting evidence of impact events, Burckle suggests potential historical implications, and Shoemaker-Levy 9 proved that large impacts continue to occur in our cosmic neighborhood. Modern detection systems now track over 95% of potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 1 kilometer, but smaller objects – still capable of causing regional devastation – remain more difficult to catalog comprehensively.

Modern science provides both warning systems and potential mitigation strategies for these threats. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office actively tracks potentially hazardous asteroids. The DART mission in 2022 successfully demonstrated humanity’s ability to alter an asteroid’s trajectory. Volcanic observatories worldwide monitor supervolcano systems using seismic networks, ground deformation measurements, and gas emissions analysis. Coastal regions increasingly incorporate megatsunami scenarios into their disaster planning.

However, these events remain statistically rare. The odds of a civilization-threatening impact in any given century are estimated at less than 0.01%. Supervolcano eruptions occur on timescales of hundreds of thousands of years. Still, understanding these phenomena helps contextualize humanity’s place in Earth’s broader history and highlights the importance of maintaining technological capabilities that might help prevent or mitigate such disasters.

That said, these threats are always a possibility. And chances are very good that when they do happen, you are likely going to survive…initially, at least. As the recent disasters of Hurricane Helene and the fires that have incinerated large swaths of the Los Angeles Basin have demonstrated, you are on your own. Government might eventually get to you, and your family, friends and neighbors might make it, as well, but they are likely to be in the same condition as you – you need a plan. It is neither paranoid nor silly to take precautions, whether with supplies, an evacuation plan or both.

As in most things in the human experience, you are on your own. Make a decision on your future for something other than your finances.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

The New “Corbett In Orbit”

 

 

 



As we roll into February of 2025, it has certainly been a heck of a ride, so far. No matter whether you love President Donald J. Trump or hate him, he has certainly been kicking over a lot of apple carts. While many people are definitely up in arms over his wielding of Elon Musk’s hammer to trim the government’s budget, the silver lining is that there is going to be a lot more money available for things that actually benefit society as a whole, as happened before, and the “Big Kahuna” is a real ‘return to space’. (But not for Mars…like, seriously.)

Instead, this week we are not going to focus on US politics, nor on the international military scene. Instead, we’re going to revisit warfare in space. Our previous article from August of 2024 focused mainly on the tactical side of warfare in space – focusing on G. Harry Stine’s “Confrontation in Space” – here, we are going to expand on those ideas, looking into how true combat operations in space are inherently derived from concepts in naval warfare in the Age of Sail…So yes, all of those who are heavily invested in historical naval strategy…and pirates…congratulations – you may have a new career ahead of you as a space-war advisor…and maybe even a real combat spacecraft captain.

In this, as you should have noted from the title of this article, we’re going to talk about a man most people have never heard of: Sir Julian Corbett. Corbett, although not a naval officer, authored some of the most influential texts on naval strategy in the 20th Century, rivaling the breadth of his contemporary, the United States Navy Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, which both theories actually compliment each other, rather than compete. Corbett’s best-known work on naval warfare, “Some Principles of Maritime Strategy“, were so influential that the United States Navy War College approved a paper, titled “Corbett In Orbit” in 2004.

However, when those works were written, there was a lot more about space mechanics that were unknown, and the most significant of those was the discovery of the ITN…which is going to require a brief digression into the “Egg Head Realm” of real science.

The Interplanetary Transport Network(ITN), formally identified in the early 2000s, represents a breakthrough in our understanding of efficient space travel. This network consists of gravitationally determined pathways through the solar system, created by the complex interactions of gravitational fields between celestial bodies. These pathways, sometimes called low-energy transport routes, allow spacecraft to move through space with minimal propulsion requirements, though at the cost of longer transit times.

The ITN’s theoretical foundation lies in the mathematics of dynamic systems and the solutions to the “three-body problem” in orbital mechanics. While the gravitational interactions between two bodies (like Earth and a satellite) are relatively straightforward to calculate, adding a third body creates complex dynamics that can be leveraged for efficient space travel. These dynamics create a network of pathways that connect various gravitationally significant points throughout the solar system.

Key to understanding the ITN are Lagrange points – positions in space where gravitational forces and orbital motions interact to create areas of relative stability. These points serve as natural “nodes” in the network, particularly useful for positioning space stations or other infrastructure. The L4 and L5 Lagrange points are especially significant as they are naturally stable, requiring minimal energy expenditure to maintain position. L1, L2, and L3 points, while less stable, still require significantly less energy for station-keeping than arbitrary points in space.

The Lagrange points, it is vital to understand, are both close-in to Earth, as described by Stine, but also exist in the Sun-Earth system, with the Earth taking the place of the Moon in relation to the Sun. Likewise, the Lagrange point system, both planetary-lunar and Sun-planet scales, is duplicated with every planet in the Solar System. Per Stine, the terms for these areas are “cis-Lunar space” (the area inside the Earth-Moon system), and “trans-Lunar space” (the area beyond the Moon).

In a functional sense, this means that the ITN resembles a network of freeways on a map, but practically speaking, the ITN is more akin to the wind and ocean currents, with the Lagrange points acting like islands and atolls.

The practical implications of the ITN are substantial. Spacecraft using these pathways can dramatically reduce their fuel requirements compared to traditional transfer orbits. This efficiency comes at the cost of longer transit times, as vessels must essentially “coast” along these gravitational corridors. However, for many space operations, particularly those involving cargo or infrastructure, the trade-off between time and fuel efficiency often favors using the ITN over trying to “bull through” under constant thrust.

The network becomes particularly relevant as humanity expands its presence in space. The ITN’s pathways naturally connect regions of space that are gravitationally significant, including many resource-rich areas. Near-Earth asteroids, the lunar environment, and even the outer solar system become more accessible through these low-energy corridors. This accessibility has profound implications for space resource utilization and the establishment of permanent space infrastructure.

Space stations or bases positioned at ITN junctions, particularly near Lagrange points, would require minimal station-keeping fuel while maintaining access to multiple transport pathways. This positioning creates natural locations for refueling depots, trading stations, and other infrastructure necessary for expanding space operations. The efficiency of the ITN makes such installations more economically viable by reducing their ongoing operational costs.

The strategic implications of the ITN mirror historical patterns of maritime commerce and naval operations. Just as terrestrial shipping lanes developed along routes determined by ocean currents and prevailing winds, space commerce would naturally tend to follow these efficient pathways. This creates predictable routes that become strategically significant, similar to how maritime choke points have historically shaped naval strategy and commerce protection.

Current technology allows for practical utilization of the ITN, particularly with advances in autonomous navigation and precision orbital mechanics. Modern spacecraft can maintain position along these pathways with minimal correction burns, making them increasingly attractive for both commercial and government space operations. As launch costs continue to decrease and space activity increases, understanding and utilizing the ITN becomes increasingly crucial for efficient space operations.

The identification and mapping of the ITN represents a fundamental shift in how we approach space travel and infrastructure development. Rather than fighting against the complex gravitational environment of space, the ITN allows us to work with natural gravitational dynamics. This approach, while requiring longer transit times, offers substantial benefits in terms of fuel efficiency and operational sustainability.

So…What does all this have to do with Julian Corbett, Mahan, and naval strategy under sails?

In brief, wars – video games aside – are never fought “just because”. They are always fought for some tangible goal to the initiator of the conflict. Whether that goal is territory, resources, or “national image”, the initiator has a reason for engaging in warfare. How does this strategic model apply in space?

Humans, as a species, are long past going to space as a stunt. If governments – or companies – want to get the money necessary to go to space, they need to offer tangible benefits for doing so. And, just as on Earth, those “tangible benefits” are going to be resources like water and mineral wealth, or control of the movement of those resources.

While people may want – and justifiable so – to use space peacefully, for good or ill, that is not the normal scope of human behavior: we will almost certainly see warfare in space, and war has rules. The ITN is the dominant feature of the “high ground” of trans-Lunar space: control of, and movement along, the ITN is the “make or break” aspect of commerce in space, and thus, will be the focus of “War in the Black”.

The ITN offers both cheap avenues of movement, but also points of control. Short of science-fiction “technobabble” solutions to space propulsion and artificial gravity, coasting along the ITN routes is how we are going to expand off of Earth. And militarily, the ability to accelerate, then coast, enhances a warship’s stealth, as it is not under constant thrust, allowing it to fade into the background. As long as extreme speed is unnecessary, this is the perfect balance, allowing ships to speed along to a base at an ITN Lagrange point, to refuel and reprovision; to “park” a Battle of the Atlantic-style “wolfpack” at those points, or to make sudden shifts into planetary Lagrange systems.

The sky, as they say, is the limit in what the ITN allows for.

Looking forward, the ITN will play a crucial role in the development of cis-Lunar space and beyond. As humanity establishes a permanent presence beyond Earth, these natural pathways will shape the pattern of space development, influence the positioning of infrastructure, and determine the most efficient routes for commerce and exploration. Understanding and utilizing the ITN will be essential for any serious long-term space operations, whether commercial, scientific, or strategic in nature.

And someone is eventually going to fight over it.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

The Congo Bloodbath – Why You Should Care

 

 

 



On Monday, January 27, the city of Goma, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (the former Zaire), fell to an assault by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, Causing a sudden escalation in the fighting of one of the worlds least-known conflicts, a conflict that has run, in various phases, since the 1960’s. This does not mark an end to the fighting, by any means, but it does hint at a new phase, a phase which – coupled to the Trump administration’s upset to the region by its 90-day suspension of foreign aid across the board – could prove to be a disaster for high tech manufacturing industries around the world.

At the center of the fighting, are the vast mineral deposits of “rare earth elements” in the region, on both sides of Lake Kivu, in the DRC and in Rwanda, which is also home to its own vast mineral deposits. These rare earth elements are fundamental to the workings of everything from nuclear power plants to the computer device you are reading this on.

Lake Kivu, Africa, as seen from space, 2003. NASA Image. Public Domain.

So – if there is plenty of mineral wealth to go around, what’s the problem?

There are two factors at work, here. First, is the long history of mostly-European (and a few American) mining conglomerates, seeking to maximize profits by operating largely with what amounts to slave labor. This has been going on since at least the 1880’s, but today, disgruntled rebel groups have access to the same weapons as the governments and corporations that oppose them, as was predicted in 1940.

Detail from Page 8 of The Small Wars Manual (1940), USMC. Public Domain.

 

Second, is the phoenix-like rebirth of the DRC’s neighbor, Rwanda.

When most people in the west hear the word “Rwanda”, their first thought is likely a dim memory of the horrors of the Rwandan Genocide of 1994, and the abject failure of the “world community” to intervene to stop the genocide.

But, out of that fire, Rwanda emerged with a new face.

Rwanda’s transformation since 2000 represents one of Africa’s most remarkable recovery stories. Following the devastating genocide of 1994, which claimed an estimated 800,000 lives and shattered the country’s social fabric, Rwanda embarked on an ambitious development strategy under President Paul Kagame’s leadership.

The country adopted “Vision 2020“, a comprehensive development program focusing on transforming Rwanda from an agricultural subsistence economy into a knowledge-based, middle-income nation. This strategy prioritized several key areas: good governance, human resource development, private sector development, infrastructure, and regional economic integration.

Rwanda’s economic approach emphasized technology and business-friendly reforms. The government invested heavily in digital infrastructure, establishing widespread internet connectivity and promoting tech education. This earned Rwanda the nickname “Africa’s Singapore,” reflecting its ambition to become a regional hub for technology and services. The country consistently ranked among Africa’s easiest places to do business, attracting significant foreign investment.

In education, Rwanda made dramatic progress, achieving near-universal primary school enrollment and significantly increasing secondary school attendance. The country also emphasized women’s empowerment, achieving one of the world’s highest rates of female parliamentary representation.

Parallel to its domestic development, Rwanda emerged as a significant contributor to international peacekeeping operations. This involvement served multiple purposes: demonstrating Rwanda’s recovery, providing professional development for its military, and generating revenue through UN peacekeeping reimbursements.

The Rwandan military, rebuilt after the genocide, has become one of Africa’s most professional forces. By the early 2020’s, Rwanda ranked among the top contributors to UN peacekeeping missions globally. Rwandan troops earned particular praise for their effectiveness in challenging environments like South Sudan and the Central African Republic.

This peacekeeping role reflected Rwanda’s broader regional ambitions. The country positioned itself as a stabilizing force in central Africa, though this role sometimes generated controversy, particularly regarding its involvement in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rwanda’s development model, while successful in many metrics, has faced criticism regarding political freedoms and regional relations. Nevertheless, its economic achievements are substantial: sustained GDP growth, reduced poverty rates, improved healthcare access, and increased life expectancy. The country’s per capita income more than tripled between 2000 and 2020.

The country’s approach to reconciliation and justice through the Gacaca courts system, while controversial, has been studied as a unique model for post-conflict societies. Rwanda balanced the need for justice with practical considerations of processing hundreds of thousands of cases, while simultaneously working to rebuild national unity.

This combination of domestic development and international engagement has transformed Rwanda from a symbol of tragedy to a notable example of post-conflict recovery and development. Its experience offers important lessons about the relationship between security, governance, and economic development in post-conflict situations.

However, another aspect of the other side of the “Rwanda Coin” is its involvement with and support of the M23 rebel group.

The March 23 Movement (M23), formed in 2012, emerged from earlier rebel groups in eastern DRC, drawing its name from a March 23, 2009, peace agreement between the DRC government and the CNDP rebel group. The organization primarily consists of ethnic Tutsis from North Kivu province, sharing ethnic ties with Rwanda’s ruling elite.

Rwanda’s relationship with M23 has been consistently controversial. While Rwanda officially denies supporting the group, multiple UN reports and international investigations have documented evidence of Rwandan military support, including weapons transfers, tactical guidance, and direct military assistance. This support appears motivated by several factors: security concerns about anti-Tutsi forces in eastern DRC, economic interests in the mineral-rich region, and strategic ambitions for regional influence.

The first M23 rebellion (2012-2013) captured international attention when the group briefly occupied Goma. UN investigations during this period found substantial evidence of Rwandan support, including direct military intervention. This led to international pressure and aid suspension from several Western donors, eventually contributing to M23’s defeat and exile of its leaders to Uganda and Rwanda.

The M23 resurfaced in late 2021, launching new offensives in North Kivu. Fresh evidence emerged of Rwandan support, including allegations of direct military involvement. Rwanda has consistently argued that its actions are defensive, citing the presence of FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda) – a group partly composed of perpetrators of the 1994 genocide – in eastern DRC.

The conflict reflects deeper regional tensions. Rwanda’s involvement with M23 has strained relations with neighboring countries and complicated its carefully cultivated international image as a model of post-conflict development. The DRC government has repeatedly accused Rwanda of using M23 as a proxy force to maintain influence over eastern DRC’s resource-rich territories.

The international response to Rwanda’s alleged support for M23 has been complex, partly due to Rwanda’s important role in regional stability (especially in Mozambique, to battle that country’s islamist insurgency) and its significant contributions to UN peacekeeping missions elsewhere in Africa. This has created a paradoxical situation where Rwanda is simultaneously a major contributor to African peacekeeping while being accused of destabilizing a neighboring state.

The situation highlights the complex interplay between regional security, ethnic politics, and economic interests in the Great Lakes region. Rwanda’s support for M23, while officially denied, appears to follow a pattern of intervention in eastern DRC that dates back to the aftermath of the 1994 genocide.

The Great Lakes of Africa. 2015 Image by MellonDor. CCA/4.0 International.

 

The implications of M23’s capture of Goma are severe, if Rwanda is actually deploying its own forces to back the rebels, given M23 stating their intent to march on the DRC capitol of Kinshasa to overthrow the government there.

While it may seem cold, given the scale of human suffering, the economic impact on the readers of this article and their neighbors could potentially be immense. The Trump administration’s 90-day suspension of foreign aid creates additional complications in an already volatile situation. Rwanda, which receives significant US assistance for both development and military programs, might find its peacekeeping capabilities affected just as regional tensions escalate. Similarly, the DRC’s government, already struggling to maintain control in its eastern regions, could see its military effectiveness further diminished by this temporary funding gap. This aid suspension, while brief, comes at a critical moment when both nations are positioning themselves for potential broader conflict, potentially accelerating the region’s descent into deeper instability.

Given the professional nature of Rwandan troops in general, there is a very real chance that this training may have been transferred to the M23 rebels after their unsuccessful rebellion a decade ago. The best example of this is the treatment of some 280 captured Romanian mercenaries, a profession with a long history in the region, which is jnot known to be very lenient in its treatment of non-African ‘operators’ when captured – the Romanians are in the process of being repatriated as this article goes to press, happy that they are not meeting a far worse fate than an unexpected plane flight home.

There is a solid chance that there may be serious disruptions to rare earth mineral extraction in the offing, disruptions that could potentially impact US and Western tech industries in a very short span of time. Events in Africa may not impact you, immediately or directly, but they will do so, eventually.

Forewarned is forearmed.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Mercenaries, Spies & Private Eyes, Part 4 – The New Landsknechts Have Arrived

 

 

 

 

 



 

Mercenaries have been around a long time – clearly, because this is Part 4 of a series concerning them, directly. In recent decades, post-9/11, the rise of “Private Military Companies” (PMC’s) has seen a return to “corporate armies” on a level not seen since the Renaissance in Europe. And taking the lead in the modern marketplace, are the swarm of former soldiers from the South American nation of Colombia…who, somewhat surprisingly, have demonstrated a trait not seen on any scale since the widespread return of mercenaries in the 1960’s: a willingness to fight on both sides of a conflict, much like their forebears, the mostly-German Landsknechts of the wars of the 14th and 15th Centuries.

The Landsknechts emerged in late 15th century Germany as elite mercenary infantry, initially formed under Emperor Maximilian I of the Holy Roman Empire. Inspired by the success of Swiss pikemen, Maximilian sought to create a comparable force loyal to German interests rather than relying on Swiss mercenaries who, often served France.

These professional soldiers revolutionized military organization through their distinctive structure and combat approach. Unlike traditional medieval armies, Landsknechts were highly disciplined, well-trained units specializing in pike and sword tactics. They typically fought in deep, dense formations called gevierte Ordnung (squared order), which proved highly effective against both cavalry and infantry.

A unique characteristic that set Landsknechts apart from other mercenary groups was their willingness to fight against other Landsknecht units. While Swiss mercenaries refused to face other Swiss in battle, considering it dishonorable, Landsknechts had no such compunctions. This led to some of the bloodiest encounters of the period, as Landsknecht units on opposing sides would fight with particular ferocity, each seeking to prove their superior skill and maintain their reputation.

Landsknechts were notorious for their flamboyant appearance and lifestyle. Their distinctive dress, featuring slashed doublets, elaborate codpieces, and multicolored hose, became a defining feature of Renaissance military fashion. This extravagant style reflected both their high pay and their status as elite warriors.

Five German Soldiers. Erhard Schön (1491–1542), c.1535. Public Domain.

 

Their military effectiveness made them sought-after throughout Europe. Landsknechts served in most major conflicts of the period, including the Italian Wars and the Habsburg-Valois Wars, often fighting against their fellow Landsknechts when employed by opposing powers. Their reputation for loyalty to their employer (while under contract) and battlefield effectiveness made them highly valued, though their demands for high pay and tendency toward looting made them expensive to maintain.

Their decline began in the late 16th century as warfare evolved. The increasing importance of firearms and the development of more standardized national armies gradually reduced the role of mercenary pike formations. However, their legacy influenced military organization and culture well into the modern era, particularly in areas of discipline, unit cohesion, and the professional soldier concept.

In the modern day, starting in the early 1960’s, mercenaries continued to play the same roles they had always played, albeit on a lower tier, as either individuals or as pale clones of nationally mustered formations like the French Foreign Legion…until, that is, the 9/11 attacks.

Following those attacks, mercenary corporations – mostly those not operating with the pseudo-approval by a national government, like Sandline International, ArmorGroup and Vinnell – exploded into being. Following the “false start” model of Executive Outcomes in the 1990’s, companies like Blackwater, Triple Canopy, and Aegis Defence Services swung into action, grabbing as much market share as they possibly could.

Controversies immediately began. Many PMCs, notably Blackwater – who was certainly not alone – tended to have a very loose interpretation of “rules of engagement“, resulting in large numbers of civilian casualties. Likewise, PMC casualties were also heavy, with almost 3,700 having been killed by early 2023, compared to 4,419 US troops deaths; however, that figure is somewhat misleading, as confirmed US combat deaths were 3,482, as of 2025. This is complicated by the fact that many contractor deaths went unreported (in order to avoid life insurance payouts to survivors), so the figures on PMC deaths in action are essentially a “best guess” estimate.

And most of those deaths did not come from the United States. Economically disadvantaged ex-soldiers and -police in many “3rd World” nations eagerly jumped at the chance to make a considerable amount of money in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, even though they were not paid at any kind of rate close to their American or European counterparts. Among these were the Colombians.

Colombia has effectively been at war since 1964. Between a long-running guerrilla war against communist revolutionaries and the never-ending war against the cocaine cartels, including the rise of the “narco submarine“, the Colombian armed forces have become one of the finest counterinsurgency forces on the planet. This has come, however, at the price of military conscription.

However, while the Colombian military has a regular influx of fresh conscripts, and those conscripts do become very skilled, there is little need for those skills on the civilian job market in the country. This, coupled to Colombia’s not-unusual condition lack of veteran services post-conscription, results in a large number of highly trained soldiers with nothing to do, and few salable job skills, making the country a prime recruiting location for mercenary recruiters, both reputable and otherwise.

As a result, Colombian veterans have emerged as significant players in the global mercenary market, their expertise forged in decades of counter-insurgency operations and drug war combat. These soldiers, many trained by U.S. special forces during Plan Colombia, combine advanced military skills with extensive real-world combat experience, making them highly sought after by various employers worldwide.

 

The 2021 assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse first brought international attention to this phenomenon. Several former Colombian military personnel were implicated in the operation, highlighting both their availability for complex military operations and the networks facilitating their recruitment. The incident revealed how these veterans’ skills could be deployed for both state and non-state actors.

In Yemen’s civil war, Saudi Arabia actively recruited Colombian veterans to serve alongside their forces. The Saudis specifically sought out Colombian personnel for their experience in counter-insurgency operations and urban warfare. These mercenaries were particularly valued for their ability to train local forces while also participating in direct combat operations.

The Mexican drug cartels have also tapped into this pool of expertise, hiring Colombian veterans as military trainers and tactical advisors. These former soldiers bring sophisticated military knowledge to criminal organizations, teaching advanced combat techniques, tactical planning, and military discipline. Their experience in Colombia’s drug war makes them particularly valuable to cartels seeking to professionalize their armed wings. This dichotomy – soldiers trained to fight drug cartels turning around and training them – is the first example since Executive Outcomes of this sort of reversal.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created new opportunities for Colombian mercenaries, with veterans finding employment on both sides of the conflict. Russia actively recruited through various channels, offering significant pay and potential citizenship. Meanwhile, Ukraine also attracted Colombian veterans to join their foreign legion, appealing to their anti-communist backgrounds and offering combat roles…and frequently end up fighting each other.

 

This issue on both sides of the Ukraine war, which has now killed at least 300 Colombian mercenaries on both sides, is that the war in Ukraine is vastly different from anything they have experience in. Ukraine is a “big war”, where tanks, artillery, combat drones and air attacks are common on both sides. As experienced as Colombian ex-soldiers might be in counterinsurgency or “direct action missions“, they have neither the training nor the experience to fight in this sort of environment, leading to many desperately trying to leave the theater, no matter which side they are fighting for.

The phenomenon reflects several key factors: Colombia’s large pool of combat-experienced veterans, relatively low domestic salaries for retired military personnel, and the extensive international networks developed during Colombia’s own conflicts. Many of these veterans received advanced training from U.S. special forces during their service, making them particularly attractive to employers seeking professional military expertise.

Their presence in an increasing number of conflicts has raised concerns anew about accountability and the privatization of warfare. While some operate through legitimate private military contractors, others work through more informal networks, making their activities harder to track and regulate. The situation has prompted discussions about the need for better international oversight of mercenary activities and the responsibilities of states in monitoring their former military personnel’s post-service activities.

Mercenaries, like warfare, are not going away any time soon. But the real takeaway from this is that, be they Colombians or Landsknechts, needing to hire mercenaries shows a distinct failure of a nation’s will – France does not need its Foreign Legion to survive, although that body has certainly helped the nation over the decades. But, if your people will not fight for you, maybe you should rethink what you are doing as a nation.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Disintegration – How The Taliban’s Drug Trade Could Bring On World War 3

 

 

 



Prelude

With the US Presidential election over, and Donald Trump about to be sworn in for the second time, many of the wars in the Middle East, as well as the war in Ukraine, seem to have paused for a moment, waiting to see what Trump will do. With the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and the resulting complete re-shape of the power dynamics in the region, the world seems to be waiting to see if peace will break out.

With a possible ceasefire in Gaza, this may seem likely. However, there is another theater to the Middle East, and that conflict may very well be the next explosion from the region…and, while it may sound like hyperbole, this burgeoning conflict could potentially result in a real nuclear nightmare.

That place is a familiar spot on the map: Afghanistan.

With the disastrous collapse of the United States presence in the country in the summer of 2021, the Taliban returned to power in the country, and quickly tried to assume the mantle of a legitimate government. Of course, being the Taliban, that was not in the cards, as the Taliban continue with their deranged policies in governance, and are increasingly being undermined by “ISIS-K“, who quickly entrenched in the post-US Afghanistan after their initial teething troubles in the region, and now use their territories as a base to launch international attacks on nations it considers itself to be at war with.

Aside from the Taliban’s shift in income – destroying opium poppy fields, while moving heaven and earth to step up the production of methamphetamines and fentanyl (which both require less processing than opium-into-heroin, and is cheaper to make per kilo) – they are starting to try and play the “Galtieri Card” to increase their support by dredging up Afghanistan’s long-standing ax to grind: the Durand Line.

Old Wounds

The Durand Line, which established the current Afghanistan-Pakistan border in 1893, through an agreement between British India and Afghan Amir Abdur Rahman Khan, has remained a source of tension and conflict in the region for over a century. This arbitrary border, drawn by British diplomat Sir Mortimer Durand – in an era when the opiate Laudanum use was rampant among European elites – cut through traditional Pashtun tribal territories, effectively dividing the Pashtun people between what would become Afghanistan and Pakistan. This status makes the Durand Line the local equivalent to the hated Sykes-Picot Agreement that created the 20th Century borders farther west, carving up the corpse of the Ottoman Empire.

Durand Line Border Between Afghanistan and Pakistan. CIA Image, 2007. Public Domain.

From its inception, the legitimacy of the Durand Line has been contested. Successive Afghan governments have historically argued that the agreement was signed under duress and was meant to be temporary, lasting only 100 years. The Pashtun tribes, who had historically moved freely across these territories, never accepted the border’s legitimacy, viewing it as an artificial division of their ancestral lands.

Following the partition of India in 1947, Afghanistan became the only country to vote against Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations, citing the Durand Line dispute. Afghanistan’s position has consistently been that the agreement was with British India, not its successor state, Pakistan, and thus was voided after partition. This led to several border clashes in the 1950s and 1960s.

The rise of the Taliban, which is predominantly Pashtun in composition, added new complexity to the dispute. During their first period of rule (1996-2001), the Taliban, while focused on internal control, never officially recognized the Durand Line. Their perspective was influenced by both Pashtun nationalism and their vision of an Islamic emirate that transcended colonial-era borders.

The porous nature of the border has had significant strategic implications. During the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), the border’s ambiguity allowed mujahideen fighters to move between Afghanistan and safe havens in Pakistan. This pattern repeated during the U.S.-led intervention (2001-2021), with Taliban fighters utilizing the same cross-border mobility.

After returning to power in 2021, the Taliban maintained their historical opposition to the Durand Line. Tensions escalated when Pakistan attempted to fence parts of the border, leading to several armed confrontations between Taliban and Pakistani forces. The Taliban’s position reflects both Pashtun nationalist sentiments and practical considerations – the border’s porosity benefits their strategic interests and traditional trading routes.

The dispute has broader implications for regional stability. The unresolved border issue complicates counter-terrorism efforts, enables cross-border militant movements, and affects economic development in the border regions. For the Pashtun communities living along both sides of the line, the border remains largely theoretical, with daily life involving regular cross-border movement for trade, family connections, and seasonal migration.

Recent years have seen periodic skirmishes along the border, with both Taliban forces and Pakistani military engaging in limited conflicts over fencing attempts and border control measures. These tensions are growing, and if left unchecked, threaten the safety of the globe itself.

Unstable Nukes

Pakistan, however, is an animal of a completely different stripe. While a Sunni-Islamic state like Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, Pakistan remains unique, as the only Muslim nation in the world with a nuclear arsenal, including the capability to launch that arsenal. What has been worrying every nation in the world with any ounce of sense, is that Pakistan has spent most of the last fifteen years on the razor’s edge of civil war.

The Taliban’s territorial claims in dispute of the Durand Line would carve out a significant chunk of Pakistan, and it is open to question how loyal much of the Pakistani Army might remain to Islamabad, given their reportedly Assad-Syria levels of morale (at the 4 minute mark).

Clearly then, this is a worry, as a collapse of the government of Pakistan throws open the question of the nation’s nuclear arsenal…but then, another player is at this particular table:

India

Thinking About The Unthinkable

When British India was partitioned, what is now modern India came into being, along with Pakistan. As a majority-Hindu state, religiously speaking, with an estimated 80% of the population being of the Hindu faith. And – as Hindus and Muslims have a long history of violent clashes, so too have India and Pakistan in the modern day.

While that may seem to be a simple historical note, the situation is complicated by the fact that India, too, is a nuclear power, equally capable of launching nuclear weapons, and – given its post-partition conflicts with its Muslim neighbor to the north – is not about to stand by and watch Pakistan’s nuclear force fall into the hands of a group like the Taliban – or ISIS-K – which views nuclear weapons as essentially VERY large hand grenades…

If that sounds like me saying that India has a plan to secure that foreign arsenal, that’s because that is exactly what I am saying: after Pakistani intelligence’s almost-certain collusion in the 2008 terror attack on the Indian city of Mumbai, India would be absolute fools to have not created and staged a plan to secure Pakistani nuclear weapons…and that, post-2008 India certainly is not.

Conclusion

In this context, it should not be too difficult to see the potential disaster looming. While Trump may, indeed, have plans in place to solve the Gaza and Ukraine wars on Day 1, Afghanistan and Pakistani unrest is another matter, entirely. In addition to our reporting on the potential of a war between Morocco and Algeria of the Western Sahara (a subscriber exclusive), Afghanistan trying desperately to “war” their way out of failed-state status could well lead to a nuclear disaster of the first order…and the repercussions of that, no one can legitimately predict with any accuracy.

Look to your personal safety and security.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

The Evolution of Military Medicine

 

 

 



Given that this is January 10, 2025, I’m sure that many readers would be expecting me to comment on the recent, and increasingly bizarre, events of the last week and a half: the ISIS/ISIL-inspired attack in New Orleans, the detonation of a Tesla Cybertruck at the Trump International complex in Las Vegas, Nevada, or the Biblical-scale fires raging across the northern sectors of Los Angeles County, some of whom have been confirmed as being arson-sourced, and certain implications now being raised around a possible motive for starting even one of this fires…

…But that is not this article. While certainly important, things are still far too fluid to report with any real accuracy, so I’m going to leave those stories to marinate before considering tackling them – unfounded speculation is for those news agencies who are increasingly desperate for views and clicks.

Instead, we’re going to consider something arguably much more important — the evolution of military medicine.

The evolution of military medicine presents a unique paradox: forces trained to engage in combat must simultaneously provide care not only for their own casualties but also for injured civilians in their area of operations. This dual responsibility has shaped both tactical medicine and strategic planning, while raising complex ethical and practical challenges.

Historical Development

While detailed military medical texts existed in ancient history, especially among Roman military surgeons, those ancient methods were frequently hampered by a lack of what we would now call “scientific rigor”: the ‘four humors‘ persisted well into the Age of Enlightenment.

The story of modern military medicine really begins during the Napoleonic Wars, and progressing through to the Vietnam War, a testament of the development of revolutionary advances born from devastating necessity. During the Napoleonic campaigns, Baron Dominique-Jean Larrey pioneered the “flying ambulance” – horse-drawn carriages that rushed surgeons to the wounded on the battlefield. This innovative system, combined with Larrey’s development of rapid amputation techniques, marked the birth of modern battlefield triage.

Civil War surgeons kit, c.1865. Photo by Quadell, 2013. CCA/3.0

 

However, the care of civilian casualties caught in the fighting remained largely an incidental concern until the advent of World War II, when occupying forces found themselves responsible for local populations devastated by combat operations. This created massive problems for small field medical units, in some cases forcing them to allow local civilian medical personnel to “help out” in the military hospitals, to handle the overflow.

The American Civil War (1861-1865) brought significant advances in medical organization and practice. The Union Army’s establishment of a sophisticated ambulance corps and field hospital system became a model for future conflicts. Dr. Jonathan Letterman, the “Father of Modern Battlefield Medicine,” standardized military medical procedures and created an efficient evacuation system that saved countless lives.

Dr. Jonathan Letterman (1824-72). U.S. Army Medical Museum. Public Domain.

 

World War I witnessed both medical horrors and breakthroughs. The introduction of chemical warfare demanded new treatment protocols, while trench warfare’s massive casualties led to innovations in blood transfusion techniques and the treatment of shock. The war also saw major advances in reconstructive surgery, particularly in treating facial injuries, pioneered by doctors like Harold Gillies.

World War II marked a turning point with the widespread use of penicillin, which dramatically reduced deaths from infected wounds. The development of mobile army surgical hospitals (MASH units) brought advanced surgical care closer to the front lines than ever before. Blood banking and improved techniques for treating burn victims – crucial in the Pacific theater, due to the large-scale use of flamethowers and napalm – represented major advances in trauma care.

The Korean War refined the MASH concept, with helicopter evacuation becoming standard practice. This conflict demonstrated that rapid transport to surgical facilities could significantly improve survival rates, leading to the “golden hour” concept in trauma care.

By the Vietnam War, the military medical system had evolved into a sophisticated network of care. Helicopters, now integral to medical evacuation, could transport casualties to well-equipped surgical facilities within minutes. Advanced trauma care techniques, including improved blood replacement therapy and wound management, reduced the mortality rate to 1% for soldiers who reached medical facilities alive – the lowest in military history to that point.

Patient being loaded by five men onto a stretcher from a bed on a hospital train car. United States Army photo, 1945. Public Domain.

 

This evolution in military medicine has consistently influenced civilian healthcare, with wartime innovations in trauma care, surgery, and medical evacuation continuing to save lives in peacetime emergency medicine.

Modern Operational Challenges

Today’s military medical services face several key challenges when providing civilian care:

  1. Resource Allocation
    – Limited medical supplies
    – Personnel constraints
    – Equipment availability
    – Transportation capacity
  2. Security Considerations
    – Protection of medical facilities
    – Safety of medical personnel
    – Verification of civilian status
    – Prevention of facility exploitation
  3. Cultural Complications
    – Language barriers
    – Religious considerations
    – Gender-specific care requirements
    – Local medical practices

Technical Evolution

Modern military medicine has adapted to meet these challenges through several innovations:

  1. Mobile Treatment Facilities
    – Rapidly deployable field hospitals
    – Modular medical units
    – Specialized trauma equipment
    – Portable diagnostic capabilities
  2. Training Adaptations
    – Cultural awareness programs
    – Language training
    – Civilian trauma protocols
    – Pediatric care specialization
  3. Logistics Management
    – Supply chain optimization
    – Resource tracking systems
    – Predictive analysis tools
    – Inventory management

 

Policy Considerations

The obligation to provide civilian care, however raises several complex policy issues:

  1. Legal Framework
    – Geneva Convention requirements
    – Rules of engagement
    – Medical neutrality
    – Documentation requirements
  2. Resource Management
    – Budget allocations
    – Personnel assignments
    – Equipment distribution
    – Supply priorities
  3. Strategic Impact
    – Population sentiment
    – International relations
    – Coalition cooperation
    – Long-term stability

Current Challenges

Several pressing issues face military medical services:

  1. Urban Warfare
    – High civilian casualty rates
    – Complex evacuation requirements
    – Infrastructure damage
    – Mass casualty events
  2. Technological Integration
    – Telemedicine capabilities
    – Digital health records
    – Remote diagnostics
    – AI-assisted triage
  3. Training Requirements
    – Specialized civilian care
    – Cultural competency
    – Psychological support
    – Ethical decision-making
  4. Climate Impact
    – Heat-related injuries
    – Disease pattern changes
    – Natural disaster response
    – Environmental health
  5. Technological Advancement
    – Autonomous medical systems
    – Enhanced diagnostics
    – Remote treatment capabilities
    – Data management
  6. Population Dynamics
    – Aging populations
    – Urban concentration
    – Health condition changes
    – Resource competition
    – Cultural dynamics and differences

One aspect of the military-civilian interface that used to exist, but was abandoned after the end of the Civil Defense Program and the establishment of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), was the Civil Defense Emergency Hospital (CDEH).

The former United States Civil Defense logo, last used on the FEMA seal before the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. Public Domain.

 

The Civil Defense Emergency Hospital (CDEH) program, operational from the 1950s to the early 1970s, represented a unique approach to disaster preparedness during the Cold War era. Each packaged hospital unit was designed to be stored in a remarkably compact space – typically requiring only about 2,500 cubic feet of storage – yet could be rapidly deployed to provide a 200-bed emergency medical facility.

These hospitals came packaged in distinctive gray-green wooden crates and included nearly everything needed for emergency medical operations except for beds and bedding. The standard package contained surgical instruments, medical supplies, basic diagnostic equipment, generators, water tanks, and even administrative materials. When properly stored, these supplies could remain viable for years with minimal maintenance.

Key features of the CDEH system included:
– Rapid deployment capability (designed to be operational within 24-48 hours)
– Complete surgical suite capabilities
– Basic laboratory facilities
– X-ray equipment
– Pharmacy supplies sufficient for several weeks of operation
– Self-contained power and water systems
– Basic sterilization equipment

The units were strategically placed throughout the United States, often stored in civic buildings, schools, or other facilities that could serve as emergency hospital sites. The host facilities were selected based on criteria including:
– Adequate floor space (approximately 20,000 square feet)
– Access to water and power infrastructure
– Loading dock or ground-level access for equipment movement
– Suitable ventilation systems
– Strategic location relative to population centers

These packaged hospitals represented a significant investment in civil defense medical infrastructure, with each unit costing approximately $60,000 at the time (equivalent to roughly $500,000 in current value). The program’s design principles – emphasizing compact storage, rapid deployment, and comprehensive medical capability – influenced later developments in military field hospitals and disaster response systems.

The concept’s legacy can be seen in modern disaster preparedness, particularly in the development of mobile field hospitals and emergency response units. While the original CDEH program was eventually phased out, its core principle of maintaining pre-packaged, rapidly deployable medical facilities continues to influence emergency planning today.

Conclusion

The evolution of military medicine continues to be shaped by the need to balance combat support with humanitarian care. Success requires not only technical and medical expertise but also careful consideration of ethical, cultural, and strategic implications. As warfare becomes increasingly urban and technologically complex, the challenges of providing civilian care while maintaining combat effectiveness will only grow more demanding.

This reality requires continued adaptation in training, equipment, and policy to ensure military medical services can meet their dual responsibilities effectively while maintaining operational capabilities.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

World Situation Report for 2024 – The Year In Review

 

 

 

 

 



As we close out the year of 2024, it has certainly been a monumental year. Movements have waxed and waned, politicians have been both humiliated and nearly assassinated, business leaders have actually been removed from the field, nations have fallen, wars continue, and security flaws have been exposed. This article will close out the year; the next article will be in the first week of January.

Pretty standard stuff, really…except that many of these events this year have been truly significant.

The United States

Starting with the proverbial elephant in the room, Donald J. Trump – the 45th President of the United States – was reelected to the Presidency by a very comfortable margin over his primary challenger, the thoroughly un-electable Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s re-election was secured following his survival of an assassination attempt on July 13th, in Butler, Pennsylvania, where the former President missed death on live television by literally millimeters; innocent bystanders were not so lucky. The image of a blood-spattered Trump being hustled away from the target zone by Secret Service agents while shouting “Fight, fight, fight!” has joined the Zapruder film in the minds of a new generation of Americans of what political violence actually looks like.

But it was not the attempt itself that secured Trump’s victory: it was the response from the Biden White House to the assassination attempt – especially in its agencies frankly unbelievable responses to the events, including washing down the crime scene within hours of the attempt, and cremating the shooters remains before any proper autopsy or toxicology screen could be done on the remains. The other issue was the gleeful responses from a wide swath of the political Left in the United States, alternately cheering the attempt and whining over the assassin missing his mark (although he didn’t).

A wounded President Trump at the Republican National Convention’s final night. Photo credit by Tim Kennedy. CCA/2.0

 

Reasonable and rational Americans were shocked and disgusted by the extreme Left’s responses, and began moving away from the Biden camp in earnest…which quickly led to shocking replacement of Biden on the Democrat Party ticket by Kamala Harris within days of the failed attempt. Harris was confirmed as the Democrat candidate without a voting process allowing other candidates to present themselves to party members as options…the end result was an election that flipped the leadership of the US again, by a comfortable margin.

The reason for concentrating on the US election so much, is that it represents a sea-change in US politics, not simply concerning domestic policies, but in international policies. This is both a blessing and a curse for the incoming administration, as the world is tired of the United State’s 50% chance of a 180° swing in its policies every four years.

On top of all of this, is the widespread outpouring of frankly disgusting sexual angst from the Left over the alleged assassin of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Once again, we were “treated” to deranged lunatics fawning over a potential killer, and the mainstream media promotes this view, in a desperate attempt to ignore the real reasons why sympathy for a murdered healthcare CEO is nearly impossible to find.

And finally, no end-of-2024 recap for the United States would be complete without talking about the waves of drones that have been plaguing the East Coast since November, which we covered last week. Short answers:

  1. Aliens don’t use FAA-approved navigation light patterns, and
  2. If a nuclear weapon, nuclear waste, or chemical anything had been lost in New Jersey, drones would be in the sky 24/7, and every flavor of law enforcement and the military would be out in the streets, armed to the teeth, and being highly hostile to anyone who looked at them sideways, until they found the missing cargo. Instead, we have seen the US Government, Inc. display a level of incompetence at such a staggering level, it boggles the imagination, as – 23 years after 9/11 – “mystery drones” are operating with impunity inside US airspace, at low altitude, and no one in the government has any idea who is responsible for making a decision on what to do about it, and no one is willing to take responsibility for acting in good faith.

 

Gnaw on that, for a while.

 

Europe

Europe continues to descend into failed-state status, as continual squabbling and inefficiencies in the structure of the European Union are crushing the economy of Europe as a whole, while “Great” Britain is desperately trying to outdo its continental neighbors in becoming a drug-addled, comic-opera version of Charlie Chaplains “The Great Dictator“, and France’s Emmanuel Macron is desperate to prove that he is not a literal “Momma’s Boy” by alternately trying to either start World War 3 by sending French and NATO forces into direct combat against Russia, while trying to revive its flagging influence on a continent that is past-done with France trying to be the colonial overlord with a nice face.

Of course, this includes the war in Ukraine, where Russia’s Vladimir Putin is hanging on long enough for Trump to step in and kill support to the absolute donkeys leading the lions of the Ukrainian forces. The Ukraine has only held as long as it has, because the general character of the “spear-carriers” in the literal trenches is as good as it is – it all fails, though, when you get above the level of the battlefield that is in range of Russian artillery.

The Middle East

The big news in the Middle East as the year closes is obviously the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. After ruling the country since 1971, Bashar Assad was forced to flee into exile in Russia after “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) a revived Al Nusra Front/Al Qaeda/Islamc State zombie rolled out of its Turkish bases and overran the country in under two weeks.

The reasons for the swift collapse are not hard to understand, if you understand the region. Assad’s remaining forces were exhausted draftees no longer interested in dying for his regime; his Iranian allies – including their Hezbollah proxies – were causing him more trouble than they were worth; Putin is too wrapped up in Ukraine to offer more than token support; and his country has been effectively partitioned since 2011.

Assad saw what was coming in November, and sent his family to Russia “on a vacation”. He, himself, stayed behind long enough to try and fight is out – you never know, in warfare – but when it was obvious that it was over, he escaped, demonstrating that he was at least smarter than Muammar Gaddafi.

As a result, the region is now in chaos, and is on the verge of becoming a “Libya, 2.0” on the borders of Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Iraq. Effectively, this has guaranteed at least another decade – or more – of warfare in the region. Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have though this was a good idea, but he is about to discover the truth of opening Pandora’s Box.

 

Africa

Africa remains a basket case, with wars, rumors of wars, and coups d’état all over the continent; there is another major war brewing, but that article is coming in January 2025. Although Russian influence was clearly on the rise in 2023 and 2024, the war in Ukraine has severely curtailed Russian operations on the continent, at least for the moment.

Yemen – which should technically be a part of the Middle East section, but is included here, because of its impacts on eastern Africa, saw the Houthis dealt a heavy blow to their confidence when neither Russia nor Iran were able to prevent Assad’s Syrian collapse, causing their co-religionist Hezbollah allies to atomize, in order to get out of the vice of Israel and a revived Islamic State…Whether or not this will cause them to back off their war against the world’s commercial shipping in the Red Sea remains to be seen.

Asia

Asia remains relatively quiet, compared to the rest of the world, with the only current major conflict of note being the “Tatmadaw” of Burma continuing to hang on by their fingernails, as the union of rebel movements sputters without effective outside support, while the military junta keeps trying to break bread with Communist China.

Of note, however, is that North Korea began trading human troops to Russia for ballistic missile technology, which is threatens a direct impact on the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula.

Meanwhile, VISA – the credit card giant – has decided to embrace DEI fully, by violating the Logan Act in trying to force Japan to conform to the company’s morals. While the Japanese government has not yet reacted, the utterly tone-deaf head of VISA is very likely about to find out why that is a terrible idea.

Conclusion

The only relatively quiet spot in the world remains South America, where – despite a host of issues – large-scale violence remains almost unknown, compared to the rest of the planet.

It has been a tiring year, but – cautiously – things might be looking up.

Let’s hope no wingnut screws it up.

 

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

Fear & Droning on the Jersey Shore

 

 

 

 

 



Since November 18th of 2024, residents in most parts of the state of New Jersey and parts of Greater New York City have been terrorized by an increasing number of mass sightings of what have been variously described as either UFO’s or drones which are reportedly, “the size of SUV’s“. The issue is so bad, some people are actually calling for Elon Musk to do something about it (what, exactly, Musk would be expected to do on his own, no one is quite clear).

Naturally, people in the vicinity are increasingly terrified, as not only do they not know what is happening, it appears to all intents and purposes that the United States government, and specifically its law enforcement and regulatory agencies, as well as the armed forces, apparently not only have no idea what these are, either, nor who is even responsible for addressing the flights.

Despite repeated assurances that the drones – or whatever they are – “pose no apparent threat” to national security or American citizens (despite reportedly flying over a number of military installations in New Jersey), the general public, including major-network news presenters who live in the area, are flatly not buying the official story, and are loudly demanding action.

These calls have become much more serious in the wake of statements made on December 11 by New Jersey Congressional Representative Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ, 2nd District) to FOX News commentator Harris Faulkner that the drones were operating from an “Iranian mothership” operating off the coast, and that the drones needed to be shot down.

There are multiple weird things going on, here – what is actually happening?

The main issue is not so much that “mystery” drones are operating in US airspace, as that has been going on since at least late-2023 (and no, we’re not talking about the balloons), but that no one in the government seems to know what is going on, nor who is responsible for even initiating action…and this, some twenty-three years after 9/11.

All kinds of theories have been put forward, from extraterrestrial aliens doing extraterrestrial alien things, to the Russians, the Iranians or the Chinese. The US government is publicly unconcerned, assuring people that there is no danger from the drones, even though they claim that they have no idea where the drones are coming from, nor who is operating them.

One feature that seems to be a major point of focus, concerns the size of the drones, as they are frequently described as being “the size of an SUV”. This naturally alarms people, given the media’s obsession with miniature drones being used in combat from the Middle East to the Ukraine. However, the mainstream media once again has failed its consumers in never presenting a coherent narrative. In this case, it is the fact that “SUV-sized” drone aircraft have been around for a long time, almost since the advent of ‘heavier than air flight’ began some 120 years ago. In this specific case, we are talking about the “QH-50 DASH“, in the image below.

 

A QH-50C DASH drone with two torpedoes on the Gearing-class destroyer USS Joseph P. Kennedy (DD-850). UN Navy Photo. Public Domain.

 

The DASH was a remotely piloted (RPV) anti-submarine helicopter designed in the late-1950’s, and deployed to the Navy beginning in 1963. It had a combat radius of about 70 nautical miles (c.80 miles on land), and could carry a payload of around 900 pounds. That translates into a lot of explosive ordnance, if someone wanted to load them with such.

Now, we are not implying that someone is flying QH-50’s over New Jersey; however, the DASH is a sixty-five year old design, and there have been more than a few technological improvements since then.

Likewise, there is little to be gained by a foreign power in conducting surveillance flights of this type over US territory – the risk versus return ratio is just not workable, especially given the notoriously poor security at many installations in the US. Such operations are an open invitation to legitimate military action, which would turn the United States into the victim, something none of the country’s adversaries want.

So – What, then, is happening over New Jersey, and which is now apparently spreading from New York, south all the way to Maryland?

Really, there are only three options:

 

    1. The drones are some sort of extraterrestrial craft – i.e., “little green men” – flying around, scaring the bejeesus out of people, and the government is clamming up, to try and keep the public from full-scale, panicked hysteria…which isn’t working.
    1. These are drones from some hostile/adversary nation, flying from some kind of “mothership” operating offshore. If this is the case, the US government as a whole have revealed themselves to be utterly and completely incompetent, and totally incapable of protecting the nation, in spite of twenty-three or so years of obscene amounts of money being spent on “defense”, after the largest and deadliest terror attack in US history.
    1. That these drones are being flown by an agency of the US government.

 

…And increasingly, it may be that last option which may be true.

Within the US defense and intelligence budgetary offices, there is a phenomenon known as the “Special Access Program” (SAP). These “black budget” operations are never reported to Congress in any open session, and only rarely under certain circumstances (the “Unacknowledged Special Access Program“, or “U-SAP“) to those members of Congress with a direct “need to know”.

The rationale behind this option is that the failings being exposed by the US government response to these incursions did not happen overnight. Filings of this magnitude only develop over long stretches of time. There is a chance – admittedly, a long chance – that certain parties inside the US defense and/or intelligence communities have become disgusted at these fundamental security failures by the “above-ground” government, in spite of their constant – if secret – demands for reform, and have decided to force the issue, as the Biden-Harris administration is on the way out…

…At least, that is the “best case” situation, because the first two options are infinitely worse than #3.

 

 

The Freedomist — Keeping Watch, So You Don’t Have To

 

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