Let’s look past the partisan spin and blame game DC is so famous for and debunk some common partisan narratives.
Biden Isn’t The Author Of This Disaster
President Biden certainly didn’t do anything to mitigate the debacle that has been the “war on terror” during his 8 years as Vice President. But the genesis of the collapse of the US-backed government in Kabul begins in 2001. The knee-jerk response to the Al Qaeda attack, which saw the US focus on “nation-building” and embrace the myth “better to fight the bad guys overseas than at home.”
We didn’t fight the bad guys, we engaged in nation-building. When US and Northern Alliance troops were closing in Al Qaeda, the US suddenly STOPPED the attack and Bin Laden got away. Ideally, had this attack been pushed to its conclusion, the bad guys are gone, the war is over. Sure, the US could back the Northern Alliance as it did the Mujahideen, but we went for an invasion to save people who weren’t trying to save themselves.
Instead of snuffing the real bad guys out, the US let them go, perhaps due to incompetence, perhaps for other geopolitical reasons. The nation-building idea was always bad and once the US entered the land and began its han-fisted approach to Afghani politics, the stage was set for what happened, albeit after much loss of mostly civilian lives.
Donald Trump’s Withdrawal Agreement Was Bad
Donald Trump wanted out and he was willing to make nice with the Taliban, on the grounds they promised, on paper, to foreswear the use of terrorism or hosting terrorism. It was not expected this would be observed, but if it wasn’t, well, we have plenty of bombs for that. Whatever one thinks of Trump, he knew when to hold and when to fold, and it was time to fold. But his plan involved militarily supporting a withdrawal and leaving in May, not August. His plan wasn’t followed the US arbitrarily reneged on the deal.
It’s true it may seem Trump was naive about the Taliban and that they weren’t going to follow the deal. But Trump’s calculus was to stop the bleeding and cut losses but to make sure the withdrawal of US personnel and collaborative Afghanis was orderly and on time.
A better deal wasn’t to be had and none of the critics have proposed better alternatives that would have worked.
The US Is On Retreat and Only Taliban Backers Like China and Pakistan Benefit
One alternative view is that the seemingly precipitous withdrawal is an abject defeat. But the geopolitical calculus is possible mote subtle. The US is aligning against China and its position on Afghanistan leaves it vulnerable to Russia, Pakistan, and the “Stans” and constrains their hand against China. In essence, China, allied to Pakistan, and Russia, patron of the Stans, could hold US forces hostage.
China may indeed be falling for a clever trap in which they become embroiled in the morasse of Afghani trial politics. The Taliban may be making nice with Beijing now but it’s ability to keep its word is nil. The love betweem Islamists and Communists is notoriously low, which is the nicest thing one may say about the Communists.
Biden Blew It By Changing The Date of Withdrawal
It is true Biden abandoned the original agreement and plan, thus making the blaming of Trump laughable as the plan executed was not Trump’s plan. The negotiations with the Taliban were nixed and so was the withdrawal date, which did in fact violate the agreement.
While this was used as a pretext by the Taliban to present this change as an affront to Afghanistan itself, it is flimsy logic to say this alone ruined the plan. Biden needed, or wanted, more time to effect withdrawal and vastly over-estimated the potential of Afghan forces. The major deviation was dismissing the Taliban, but one can hardly argue against viewings these people as brutal savages as opposed to making nice with them.
The Taliban don’t keep agreements. Biden knew this and ditched the idiotic pretext, but it may have led to a miscalculation of many things, such as the strength of the enemy and of allies. Merely changing the date of withdrawal may have fed Taliban propaganda, but that’s about it.
What’s The Conclusion?
The collapse of the US-backed government in Afghanistan was essentially ensured when US and Allied forces tried to defend people who didn’t want to fight for themselves and tried nation-building in a land that basically rejected the values upon which that effort was based.
