According to Taiwan’s Defense Minister, the Taiwan Strait was illegally occupied at the beginning of the month of January. The Taiwanese reported more than 20 military aircraft and ships entered the Taiwan Strait. The People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command said the exercises were “joint combat readiness patrols and actual combat drills…[to]…resolutely counter the provocative actions of external forces and Taiwan independence separatist forces.”
The Biden administration has expressed little concern with the exercise, with White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan adding, “There is a risk of conflict with respect to Taiwan, but I believe that with responsible stewardship, we can ensure that this contingency never comes to pass. And that is our responsibility.”
The likelihood of an invasion of Taiwan by China is not particularly high right now, given the unrest going on in China today. However, the unrest that might hinder China acting might also trigger it to act should Xi become too unsure he can continue to hold on to power. A war with Taiwan brings much risk, but if Xi sees the writing on the wall that his reign is coming to an end, he might feel he has nothing to lose by risking it. Short-term, the prevalence of nationalism in China (fueled by Chairman Xi’s agit prop efforts) would secure Xi’s reign.
