ISRAEL ELECTION A QUESTION OF NETANYAHU’S COALITION WINS – The coming Israel election might produce another unstable government, if it forms one at all. The leading candidate to be able to potentially form a majority coalition, Benjamin Netanyahu, might come within one seat of claiming a majority coalition.
Polls on Friday predicted Israel’s former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would come within a single seat of an outright majority in his quest to return to power in next week’s election, the fifth in less than four years.
Netanyahu, on trial for corruption charges he denies, has been vying for a comeback, aided by an alliance between his Likud party and far-right party Religious Zionism – a pact that could test Israel’s foreign relations if it wins the ballot.
Two polls – one released late Thursday by Israel’s Kan public broadcaster and another published on Friday by the Maariv newspaper – both showed the Netanyahu bloc of four parties winning 60 of parliament’s 120 seats in Tuesday’s vote.
PUTIN SPEECH USES AMERICAN DIVIDE TO SEARCH FOR U.S. SUPPORT – “There are at least two Wests, One is a West of “traditional, mainly Christian values” for which Russians feel kinship. But, there’s another West — aggressive, cosmopolitan, neocolonial, acting as the weapon of the neoliberal elite,” said Vladimir Putin in a speech aimed at exploiting the real divide in America between the “left” and the “right”.
President Vladimir Putin declared Thursday that Russia’s battle was with “Western elites,” not with the West itself, in a speech seemingly aimed more at winning over political conservatives abroad than his own citizens….
Putin, as he often does, portrayed Russia as threatened by the possible expansion of NATO — and the values of its liberal democracies — to countries like Ukraine that were once part of the Soviet Union.
FOREIGN INVESTORS FLEE CHINA AFTER XI’S NEW POLITBURO SELECTED – After Chairman Xi was awarded de facto chairmanship for life in the manner of Chairman Mao, he selected a new politburo. Afterwards, foreign investors immediately started to pull out of China, as seen in Chinese brands on foreign exchanges tanking, including Alibaba on Nasdaq, which fell by 20 percent.
On october 23rd China’s ruler, Xi Jinping, asked the Central Committee of the Communist Party to endorse him and his team of loyalists to run the country for the next five years. He had no trouble securing their support. But the next day, he had a lot more difficulty with the highly decentralised committee that is the global financial market.
Foreign investors dumped China’s shares and its currency in spectacular fashion. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng stockmarket index, dominated by mainland firms, fell by over 6%. The sell-off was even worse in New York. The Golden Dragon index of Chinese companies listed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which includes giants like Alibaba and Baidu, fell at one point by 20%, reaching levels last seen before Mr Xi took power ten years ago. The offshore yuan, which fluctuates more freely than its onshore counterpart, weakened to its lowest value against the dollar since the market began in 2010 (see chart).
No matter how you consume your news, whether from the “mainstream” or from more “alternative” sources, recent months have been all abuzz about the “mighty HIMARS“; and the HIMARS is, indeed, a very capable system…for those who either have friends, or who can afford it. But — what about us? What about the “poor’s“? Every weapon has a development cycle, and HIMARS is no exception. In this article, we will take a (very) brief look at the history of rocket artillery, and a singular weapon that is everything the HIMARS is not: cheap, simple, flexible, and readily available for anyone or any group with even a modest mount of cash.
Rocket artillery is far from ‘new.’ In fact, rockets were arguably the first practical use for gunpowder when it was invented in China, in the 9th Century AD. As gunpowder migrated westward, however, the idea of rocketry largely disappeared, until the late 18th-early 19th century, when rocketry began to reappear, most famously in the form of the Congreve Rocket. These early attempts were wildly unreliable, including having a nasty habit of exploding on their own, or returning to their owners in the most unpleasant of manners. Thus, it should not be surprising that rockets mostly disappeared from European-style warfare after about 1850 or so.
Fireships firing rockets and details of storage and launch. Colonel Congreve, 1814. Public Domain.
As a result, it would take until World War 2 to resurrect rocket artillery in a meaningful way, with the German introduction of the “Nebelwerfer” (or, ‘smoke mortar’) multiple rocket launcher (MRL) system. The system fired a variety of rockets, normally 5 – 7 at a time, depending on their exact size and weight. While initially intended to deliver chemical weapons, the distaste – and fear – from all sides outside of Asia about using such weapons caused the Germans to quickly develop high-explosive rounds for the various calibers. These were used to devastating effect by the Germans, initially…not so much for their raw destructive power, but for their terrifying psychological effects on troops who had never imagined the sound the rockets produced.
Nebelwerfer crew in action, Soviet Union, 1944. German Federal Archives.
All of the major Allies quickly copied the concept, and by the end of the war, were deploying far larger and more capable designs. However, the love affair with short-range multiple rocket systems wouldn’t last. By the mid-1950’s, most “First World” nations had largely begun to abandon the battlefield MRL; the notable exception was the Soviet Army and it’s subject armies, who maintained the devastating BM-21 ‘Grad’ into the present day. The reason for this abandonment of MRL’s was that, despite the MRL’s decided advantages (they were cheap and lightweight, compared conventional artillery, and were capable of firing truly impressive amounts of rounds in a time far shorter than regular artillery when grouped into batteries), they had significant disadvantages: their range tended to be shorter; they took far longer to reload; they were nearly impossible to use in “direct fire”, a feature of conventional artillery; and their rockets’ velocity was far too low to actually penetrate dug-in shelters or tank armor.
Nebelwerfer crew moving into action, France, 1944. German Federal Archives.
The reason the Soviet Bloc hung on the BM-21, was that while it had all of the disadvantages cited above, it had a very powerful warhead, a long range, was simple and easy to maintain, and was far cheaper and easier to build than conventional artillery. The Soviets accepted the downsides of the MRL idea, and found a way to incorporate it into their artillery fighting doctrine.
BM-21 Grad on display at the Karen Demirchyan Complex, Armenia. CCA/4.0
The Chinese Communists, following their disastrous – if effective – intervention in the Korean War (1950-1953), had a terribly disorganized arsenal. As China had spent the previous fifty years alternating between civil wars and hellish foreign invasions (WW2 actually begins in 1937, in China, instead of Poland in 1939), the PLA was stuck with a hodge-podge of weapons from at least six or more sources, they were badly in need of a complete rearmament strategy, literally from the top, down.
The immediate problems for the CCP was that their manufacturing base had to be completely rebuilt – which, being fair, was a problem for most of the active participants of the war, although Mao Tse Tung’s “Great Leap Forward” almost destroyed the country wholesale – but, more cripplingly, they had very little money to buy foreign equipment. Unable to pay even the Soviet Union for enough field artillery, the PLA went looking for an alternative.
And, in 1963, they created one of the most important, but least-known, pieces of artillery in modern history: the 107mm Type-63 MRL.
Type-63 107mm MRL. 2016. CCA/4.0
A 12-shot launcher mounted on a 2-wheeled trailer, the system weighed in at about 1,300lbs/602kg, and only needed a crew of five. It was capable of firing a wide variety of ammunition (albeit limited to HE-types, as well as incendiary and smoke rounds) to (initially) c.5mi/8km; ranges were quickly improved. Some models could be broken into 2-tube loads for transport through rough terrain, by either people or mules. Eventually, a variety of single-tube launchers were developed for the rocket ammunition. The PLA realized that they had a good thing, and eventually equipped each infantry division with 18 units.
It was also quickly realized that the unit’s light weight made it easy to mount on small vehicles, giving the launcher the ability to quickly fire its rockets, and quickly relocate to avoid counter-battery fires.
IRGC Ground Force Commandos loading a Type-63 type MRL. 2017. CCA/4.0
As word got around, and the units began to be used by Communist guerrillas and regular armies, the system became a source of hard currency through exports and licensing; at least seven countries would eventually obtain legal production licenses for both the launchers and their ammunition.
Naturally, the advantages of the Type-63 became apparent to every rebel, guerrilla and terrorist group in the world, and those entities quickly began competing with small armies to buy, steal or beg units on both the legal and black markets.
The Type-63 has proved itself to be a significant game-changer in “low intensity conflicts” because it allows small forces operating on a shoe-string budget to seriously threaten adversaries who cannot afford the advanced systems, like battlefield radars or C-RAM (which are fantastic to have, if you can afford or get them, somehow), to counter the fast-moving artillery. As a result, lightweight, highly mobile “technical” units can add a significant punch to their operations.
While susceptible to well (and expensively) equipped Western armies, the Type-63 remains a significant threat to anyone without powerful “friends” willing to commit to their aid.
The Type-63 has been reshaping battles for nearly 65 years, at this writing. There seems to be no end in sight for this venerable weapon…not least, because it is now being deployed on high-speed inshore craft…Newer may often be better, but old weapons will still harm you.
AUSTRALIA REJECTS ISRAEL BY REJECTING JERUSALEM – The Leftist government of Australia has decided to end the former “conservative” government’s policy of recognizing Jerusalem (specifically “West Jerusalem”) as the capital of Israel, a decision that was made after then-US-President Donald Trump decided to do so first.
Australia said Tuesday it would no longer recognize West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reversing a contentious decision by the previous conservative government.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the city’s status should be decided through peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, and not through unilateral decisions.
“We will not support an approach that undermines” a two-state solution, she said, adding: “Australia’s embassy has always been, and remains, in Tel Aviv”.
XI ANNOUNCES PURGE OF PARTY AFTER BEING APPOINTED DICTATOR FOR LIFE – The Chinese Communist Party has released a statement on an ongoing investigation that has led to nearly 5 million of its 96 million party members being accused of corruption in the last decade. 553 party members are facing immediate criminal prosecution as a result of the investigation, with more arrests anticipated.
China’s ruling Communist Party says it has investigated almost 5 million members for possible corruption over the last decade, with formal criminal cases brought against 553.
Whether that will curb a widening economic slowdown and restore faith in the authoritarian system remains unclear.
The party has 96 million members and has long run its own internal system of keeping cadres in line through a mix of offering privileges and threatening severe punishment for taking bribes, selling offices or otherwise abusing authority.
CCP SIEZES MARKET TO KEEP NUMBERS UP AHEAD OF 20TH CONGRESS – The Chinese Communist Party is giving more specific commands to its corporations and financial institutions in a bid to keep the overall economic numbers looking good ahead of Xi’s ascension to Dictator for Life in the 20th People’s Party Congress. Moves include essentially buying and selling stocks among employees and easing.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping opened the landmark Communist Party Congress, the country’s vast financial bureaucracy has been busily tamping down ripples of turmoil across its currency and stock markets.
Chinese state banks are stepping up intervention to defend the weakening yuan, banking sources told Reuters on Monday. Scores of companies have announced share buybacks or executive share purchase plans since Friday, when regulators unveiled plans to ease share buyback rules.
State-owned banks vowed in unison that they would boost support for the economy while state-run asset managers pledged in identically worded statements their “confidence in the long term and healthy development of China’s capital markets”.
CHINA HIDES EXPECTED YEARLY ECONOMIC DATA AHEAD OF 20th CONGRESS – Just one day before the Chinese government was set to release yearly and quarterly economic reports, an indefinite delay was announced. There was no reason given for the announcement. Among the key numbers expected were the country’s annual GDP growth, quarterly retail sales, and the monthly unemployment rate.
China has abruptly delayed the publication of key economic data, one day before its scheduled release, as the ruling Communist Party gathers at a major political meeting against the backdrop of a faltering economy.
The country’s National Bureau of Statistics updated its schedule on Monday, with the dates for a series of economic indicators – including the closely-watched GDP growth – marked as “delayed.” The indicators, which had been scheduled for release on Tuesday, also include quarterly retail sales, industrial production and monthly unemployment rates.
The bureau did not give a reason for the delay or set a new publication date.
NY TIMES EXPOSED FOR PROTECTING CHINESE SPY WHO SENT ELECTION DATA TO CCP – The DNC Flagship, NYTimes, attempted to defend Chinese spy Eugene Yu, the CEO of the election software company Konnech, declaring it fake news the company was, in fact, a Chinese spy firm. One day after the article Yu was arrested and charged with giving Americans’ election data to the CCP. The article has not been altered or removed.
Just one day after the New York Times attempted to downplay suspicions around the election software company Konnech, the company’s CEO, Eugene Yu, has been taken into custody under suspicion of sending data on American poll workers to Communist China.
On October 3, the New York Times published an article by reporter Stuart Thompson titled “How a Tiny Elections Company Became a Conspiracy Theory Target,” in which he claimed that “election deniers” were targeting Konnech, a Michigan election software firm with just 21 U.S. employees, and had developed a theory with “threadbare evidence” that the company had ties to the Chinese Communist Party and had given the Chinese government backdoor access to the personal data of around two million poll workers in the United States.
Thompson suggested that such beliefs were ridiculous and anyone suggesting there was validity to these claims was simply an “election denier,” spinning conspiracy theories.
XI APPOINTD TO 3RD TERM – The 20th People’s Congress has affirmed Chairman Xi as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party for a third five-year term, ending rumors the congress was set to remove him. The congress also ended two-term limits on the Presidency, which Xi is expected to be confirmed for in March.
The move all but assures that Xi will hold on to the two key positions of power in the Communist Party, the General Secretary and the Presidency. It comes on the heels of growing unrest in the country as more Chinese protest the zero Covid policy of Chairman Xi, which might aid Xi in targeting political opponents for persecution (ahead of the 20th congress), but it undermines his credibility and authority with rank and file Chinese who find it increasingly untenable to provide for their most basic needs in the face of total shutdowns.
Xi’s power at the top will only grow, even as his power at the bottom continues to fade, leading to an overthrow or a purge on the level of Chairman Mao’s Cultural Revolution that leds to tens of millions being killed and hundreds of millions being displaced.
As any sane person in the world nervously watches the continuous back-and-forth between Russia and the West over Ukraine, wondering if they are going to see mushroom clouds start sprouting over their cities, Emperor Joe and his deranged courtiers are doing their absolute best attempt at impersonating Emperor Nero (or, perhaps, Elagabalus). With the potential of World War 3 looming (not that the dissolute Imperial Swamp Court believes that it could really happen, so why not play with nuclear toys?), the Imperial Court (I could call them the “Legion of Doom,” but they’re not cool enough) have decided that they need to continue the geopolitical game – the one they should have been paying more attention to, that is – by plotting to be invited to invade, of ALL places…Haiti.
…What?
Oh, yes. Haiti.
Haiti has long been ranked as one of the poorest nations in the world. With a low-end economy based on minuscule agricultural and mining sectors, the country’s only real manufacturing sector involves pennies-on-the dollar clothing manufacture; in fact, the country’s only real claim to economic fame, is that it supplies around half of the world’s supply of “vetier oil” (an essential oil used in high-end perfumes). Otherwise, the country is, almost literally, a “banana republic.” As a result, Haiti can’t even capitalize on a tourism industry, although it is well-suited to one, since most vacationers dislike chilling on the beach while the country literally disintegrates around them.
Royal Decameron Indigo Beach Resort & Spa, Cote des Arcadins, Haiti, 2015.
The main reason for this disintegration, is the political instability that followed the demise of the Duvalier dynasty in 1986. After “Baby Doc” was forced to flee the country, Haiti tried to recover from the depredations of that regime, but it suffered from continual economic decline, political instability, repeated coups d’état, and a wave of major earthquakes.
Haitian President Jovenel Moïse, 2019. US Dept. of State photo.
Elected to the Presidency of Haiti in early 2017, Moïse had started out as a local businessman. His ideas earned him the attention of a center-right political policy, that would catapult him into the Presidency of the island nation. Despite accusations of a corrupted election, Moïse did make notable progress in developing both infrastructure projects, as well as launching new initiatives to expand Haiti’s agricultural sector, by improving rice production.
However, continued controversy over when Moïse’s actual term of office was supposed to end continued to simmer. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, a group of what can only be described as “hitmen” stormed Moïse’s residence in the early morning hours of 7 July 2021. Like many rulers in the world, Moïse’s residence had little real security; in fact, only six police officers were present that night – two were active informants to the attackers and the other four did their best to do nothing at all.
What followed could be favorably described as a “Keystone Kops” caper, had no one actually died. The survivors of the 26 actual attackers would later claim that they had been hired – via WhatsApp, of all things – to be security for Moïse…who were then informed that the mission was actually to kidnap the president, although several of them apparently knew well in advance that the real plan was to assassinate him. Video and audio evidence showed the attackers shouting via a bullhorn that the operation was a US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) operation, which at least help to momentarily confuse Haitian authorities.
Port Au Prince, Haiti, 2012
There followed a wild chase through the capital of Port-au-Prince, as police and civilians tried to hunt down the suspects who were now fleeing in panic, as it seems that no one had thought through what might happen afterwards. Eleven of the suspects broke into the Embassy of Taiwan, apparently seeking sanctuary, but were promptly arrested after Taiwan waived the embassy’s extraterritoriality status to allow the attacker’s arrest.
Bookmark that last – we’ll come back to it.
The subsequent investigation revealed a tangled web of conspirators, spanning Haitians, Americans, Colombians, among others, who seemingly accreted out of thin air, on a jumble of ideas about what kind of operation they were running: Were they seizing power in a coup? Were they launching a revolution? Were they arresting the president? Were they simply hitmen? The answer to all of these questions, at one point or another, was “Yes”. In this regard, the planning and execution of this operation make 2020’s “Operation Gideon” look like D-Day.
Venezuelan authorities detaining Operación Gedeón militants, 2020. Venezuelan Government photo.
As a result, Haiti began to spiral out of control. That descent continues a year later, as certain parties are now calling for international – and specifically American – intervention…Which is odd, given Haiti’s history of intervention with the United States…Doubly so, when the United States is currently “eyeball to eyeball” with Russia, in an international confrontation that is more serious than anything since the early 1980’s.
So — why Haiti? Why the push for intervention? Haiti’s politics aside, who would be behind such an attack? There are only three real possibilities:
Christian Emmanuel Sanon, an over-60 year old Haitian-American doctor from South Florida, who was identified as a possible front-man for the operation.
The US government of Joe Biden.
The government of Communist China.
The first case, of the 60-something doctor, is more than a little bizarre. An operation like this requires a lotof money, and the rewards need to balance out the risks. While it has never been illegal (mostly) for Americans to travel to a foreign country to fight in a war, it has always been illegal to plan and conduct such operations from within US borders. As in, serious and very real jail time to those involved. In this regard, it is not really credible to assume that this came solely out of a Florida office complex.
The second case is more interesting, but verges into “4-D Chess“. It is barely – just barely – possible that Joe Biden’s administration may have set up a deliberately bungled operation to send Haiti over the edge. Why? Because that would please the Communist Party of China, who were very upset about the strengthening ties between its claimed ‘province’ of Taiwan and Haiti, while giving the US an excuse to play the White Knight, riding to Haiti’s rescue, yet again.
On Communist China’s part, they could have easily concocted the same plot, for mostly the same reasons, and ran such an operation with the help of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro’s intelligence services, who were actually embedded into the aforementioned “Operation Gideon” from basically the start. For Communist China, implying tacit Taiwanese support to the operation (recall some of the plotters fleeing to the Taiwan embassy compound) could give Taiwan a black eye, locally inside Haiti. On Maduro’s part, getting the United States to launch another intervention into a Caribbean nation would be a spectacular win, that he can make hay from for the next decade or so, while burnishing his image with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, of general purposes.
My own assessment? The sordid affair is most likely a combination of #2 and #3, because of the confused nature of planning, and the byzantine levels of actors involved. The US has to maintain the image of being in control of its own back yard, and with fires burning all around it, Imperial Joe’s Court of Jesters needs to distract its populace from evermore ridiculous gaffe’s and disasters…
…Until, of course, scary noises and bright lights commence.
Which, naturally, does nothing for the long-suffering people of Haiti.
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