KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN CONFLICT REVEAL POWER OF FREEDOM IN WINNING ONLINE PR WARS
Throughout human history, leaders of nations (even leaders that wished to form nations, such as Aelfred the Great of England) have recognized, mostly, two outcomes their social, cultural, and civic institutions must produce; they MUST CREATE a warrior class and an expert class. The people and their land must have institutions that can create humans that kill well and humans that can create and support the tools these killing humans need to do their jobs.
In addition to these two results of civilization (we’ll call it that from here on out), and almost as equally important, we need the bodies that are needed for wars. We need the bodies that are needed for the work that supports war-making.
Our civilization has neighbors who have the same thing in mind in the formation of their own civilization. These civilizations are overwhelmingly led by individuals who treat these civilizations as their personal toolbox to be used to assure they and their future DNA can continue to control the lives of the vast majority of their subjects.
Of course, for the sake of time, I am being a bit simplistic in my language, but the spirit is rightly applied to the reality I am describing, the underlying reliance on the art of killing (and all the institutions needed to produce the highest forms of killing) to assure the continued existence of the civilization you and everyone throughout human history has ever been part of.
Throughout most of human history, the sinew trumped the machine in terms of killing value, but more and more the machine is replacing the sinew, creating new institutional demands to support new types of killing arts emerging from this new shift in the potential for the human to manipulate material for the purpose of bringing death and destruction to others.
This brings us to our story:
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan’s 545-mile-long shared border erupted September 16, leaving more than 100 people dead and over 100,000 people displaced. A cease-fire was signed September 25, 2022. There were no real winners, however, Kyrgyzstan won the online PR war thanks to having more freedom of expression than Tajikistan does.
As press freedom goes, Kyrgyzstan ranks rather low, coming in at 72 in world country rankings. However, their counterpart, Tajikistan, ranks 150th, near the bottom (there are 195 recognized countries in the world).
Relative to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan is a thriving hotbed of free expression producing high-quality content that makes Tajikistan look like a tone-deaf cringe-lord begging the public to listen to their carefully crafted press releases.
The PR war online was decisively won by Kyrgyzstan despite appearing to be the military “loser” in this affair. It could well be, though, that the Kyrgyzstanis were better at highlighting the damage done to their areas as opposed to the damage they did to the Tajikistani areas.
From hrw.org
Kyrgyz Ministry of Education reports that 26 schools and 30 kindergartens in the Batken region closed as nearly 137,000 people evacuated since the fighting started. Of these, ten schools and seven kindergartens were damaged either by shrapnel or direct attacks. Currently, most schools have resumed full or partial functioning, except the two that were heavily damaged. One of these schools, located in Ak-Sai, was taken over by Tajik-affiliated forces on September 16 and used as a base for two days.
In Tajikistan, at least one school educating 450 children was damaged by fire on September 16. In another school in Khojai A’lo, Tajikistan, a teacher, 51-year-old Bakhrom Khakimov, was reportedly killed while trying to protect his students. The Tajik authorities have confirmed that 200 civilians have been harmed in the hostilities.
Regardless, this conflict results in another cease-fire, with neither side gaining or losing much on the ground. However, as far as the world is concerned, the Kyrgyzstanis gained tremendous ground, which might lead to more support from the outside world than the Tajikistanis can hope to gain.
Kyrgyzstan is very friendly to crypto as well, making itself somewhat of an emigree target for wanna-be expats in the west looking to go on a new adventure. No such opportunities lie on the other side of the border.
It should be noted that Kyrgyzstan has been making anti-free-press moves as of late, moves that might be second-guessed after seeing what a free press culture can do in the digital information wars compared to one that lacks it.
There are many factors that go into producing an effective killing and anti-killing strategy, including access to the raw resources needed to make the machines themselves, but none of them, I would support, will be as significant as the freedom of expression factor in the wars of the near future.
If your civilization lacks free expression, then it will soon become threatened by those that do not, unless you are a satellite of a free expression nation willing to shower you with military tools and expertise.
These two nations are in perpetual geopolitical tension due to the non-emergent nature of the border imposed on them by the then-Soviet Union. The boundaries are not reflected of geopolitical realities in terms of the purely physical as well as ethnic history. This is a reality that is shared around the world, especially among former Soviet satellites.
For the nations that exist in similar conditions to the ones in this story, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the key lesson to be learned here, one that even the Belarusian President should heed, is that free expression cultivates the institutions needed to produce an effective killing and anti-killing strategy when dealing with threats from competing civilizations outside your borders, ESPECIALLY if you cannot hope for real aid from any of the major powers.
There is a technical parity happening around the world, for a number of reasons, including the proliferation of open-source augmented intelligence programs (AI, but I call it augmented instead of artificial). This technical parity, in addition to the shrinking nature of warfare (as drones become more and more dominant, as I predict they will), will mean that the advantage in warfare will come in inspiring support and intelligently utilizing killing tools that are mostly comparable to the ones they’ll be facing.
The sinew has given way to the machine, but now the machine is giving way to the mind. When the mind becomes the number one factor in war, the civilization that impedes dangerous free expression, for hate speech, for misinformation, for blasphemy, for security, etc., is sure to be a past civilization in the course of near time.
As the machine gives way to the mind, even as it is the very facilitator of it, the people who can think in the most dynamic, responsive way, in the most semi-autonomous way, without needing central commands, are the people that will win Empires in the decades, perhaps centuries, to come.