Mega-Trends For The Next Decade
Mr. Sune Hojgaard Sorensen, a strategic and economic Advisory Board Member of the BFI Capital Group, has identified what he calls three defining mega-trends he believes will feature prominently in the next decade, all of which have been massively accelerated by Covid.
1. DIGITALIZATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
“According to a study conducted by McKinsey & Co in November of last year, in response to the crisis, companies have accelerated the digitalization of their customer interactions, accomplishing three or four years of progress in just seven months!” Further, Sorensen notes that “Value has moved from the tangible to the intangible, or a combination thereof.”
In 1975, only 17% of assets on the S & P 500 were intangible (patents, brand value, customer data, etc.), while 83% were tangible (buildings, equipment, cash, inventory, etc.). Today, 90% of assets are intangible. Digital finance, tele-health, remote work, online education, virtual entertainment, automation, and robotics will only increase in use.
2. THE RISE OF THE EAST
Consider that over 3.3 billion live in the countries of India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Japan alone. The world’s largest shipping hubs are now in the East, and Asia’s market share has massively expanded in the past 100 years. Despite the talk of “decoupling” from China, many businesses have shown little interest in doing so.
According to MacroPolo, “Foreign businesses are just one gauge of decoupling, but they are particularly important leading indicators of shifts in supply chain ecosystems. In 2020, the respective portions of US (87%) and European (89%) businesses indicating no intention to leave China are as high or even higher than they’ve been in recent years.”
According to MacroPolo, “Foreign businesses are just one gauge of decoupling, but they are particularly important leading indicators of shifts in supply chain ecosystems. In 2020, the respective portions of US (87%) and European (89%) businesses indicating no intention to leave China are as high or even higher than they’ve been in recent years.”
1. BIG GOVERNMENTS, BIGGER DEBT
Essentially, the US has transitioned from real engineering to financial engineering. Sorenson highlights the Congressional Budget Office projections, which predict that US Debt to GDP will pass the historical high of 106 in 2023, and in 2050 will hit 2.5x what they were at the end of 2020.
But Sorensen believes this could spell opportunity for strategic investors. “Beyond the debasement and the financial repression, big government and even bigger debt will also bring plenty of opportunity to those entrepreneurs and investors who can take a pragmatic approach, see through the smoke and mirrors, and identify the sectors that stand to benefit from all this largesse, deploying their efforts and capital accordingly.”
Consider that while millions lost their fortunes in the Great Depression, those who understood the times and were wise enough to get out early (like Joe Kennedy, Sr.) were able to buy stock after the crash for pennies on the dollar, becoming millionaires in the process.
