U.S. Intelligence is claiming the Assad regime of Syria has agreed to deliver weapons to Hezbollah from Russia, with Wagner Group assisting in teaching Hezbollah how to use the weapons systems. These systems include Russia’s SA-22 missile system, an air defense system that could threaten Israeli jets. The U.S. has warned Russia, Iran, and anyone who cares to listen, they will intervene on behalf of Israel should these nations choose to attack Israel while it deals with Hamas.
This could bring about a dramatic escalation of the conflict and threaten to bring the U.S more directly into the fight, however, the U.S. asserts Iran, which is becoming a proxy for Russia and China, is not interested in having this fight escalate to a wider regional war, rather they are interested in manipulating their proxies to destabilize Irael while it fights Hamas.
From cnn.com: The US intelligence community believes – for now – that Iran and its proxies are calibrating their response to Israel’s military intervention in Gaza to avoid direct conflict with Israel or the US while still exacting costs on its adversaries.
But the US is also keenly aware that Iran does not maintain perfect control of its umbrella of proxies – in particular over Lebanese Hezbollah, the largest and most capable of the various groups. Hezbollah is an ally of Hamas, the group that attacked Israel on October 7, and has long positioned itself as fighting against Israel. US officials are deeply concerned that the group’s internal politics may cause Hezbollah to escalate simmering tensions.
The US also does not always have perfect visibility into the communications between Iran and its various proxies, according to sources familiar with US intelligence in the region.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, did not deliver the decisive declaration of war against Irael the Palestinians were hoping for.
From Newsweek: Nasrallah touted Hezbollah’s current involvement in the conflict, saying his group had joined the war on October 8. He largely renewed warnings to the United States and Israel that the group’s lower-level leaders had already made. He also called for a ceasefire in Gaza and reiterated Hezbollah’s support for Hamas and the Palestinian people.
“The depth of the disappointment for those who want Hezbollah to do more against Israel is a reflection of the height of anticipation leading up to Nasrallah’s speech. For them, Nasrallah’s speech failed to deliver,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow and director of outreach at the Middle East Institute.
Maksad told Newsweek that Nasrallah simply outlined what the group was already doing to divert Israel’s military resources away from Gaza and toward Lebanon. The Lebanese group’s leader also said that Hezbollah and Iran had no role in planning or foreknowledge of Hamas’ attack on Israel, as Iran and lower-level Hezbollah leaders have previously said.
Still, the moment an Israeli jet is shot down by a Russian air defense system, the risk of escalation is very real, whether anyone wants it or not.
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Paul Collier
Paul Collier is the editor of The Freedomist newsite, our Weekday Reports, and our Monthly Publication, Freedomist Intelligence Advisor (previously McAlvany Intelligence Advisor). He has been involved in news publishing since 2003.
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