Commentary- William Collier – The debate on Scottish Independence (held on August 25, 2014) did not go well for the British faction. The argument against Independence stood, and perhaps fell, on a threat that an independent Scotland would lose the British Pound Sterling and would not be able to stand up an alternative.
Telling the Scotts “we don’t want independence or the British Exchequer will squeeze us” is not really a “rallying call.” The pro British side should have pushed the values of Scotland within the union in a positive way, not making threats of the UK punishing Scotland its centerpiece.
The Scotts could certainly make the UK suffer in return, consider the North Sea oil and the very important UK naval bases, including a specialized based for British nuclear subs, located in Scotland. Moreover, independent or not, Scotland remaining in a currency union would be better for both sides. Interestingly, while the pro Independence guy (Salmond) won the debate with the best zingers, he really failed to make these points. It may be, however, that he is thinking that if the vote goes his way it would be impolitic to make such brazen overt threats against the UK as a negotiating tactic.
Polls allege the pro Union side gets 51% of the vote while the pro Independence side gets 38%: but anyone over 16 can vote and turnout models have no clue which demographics will, well, turn out! In social media and, according to many reports I have read, the pro Independence narrative is the “cool” thing for young people. “Cool” is that undefinable factor that makes hash of the pollster’s best predictions.
I would predict…the unpredictable. This vote will be a surprise. But if the vote against independence is not a strong majority, 8% or more, the issue is not over, no matter what anyone else says. A close vote for independence will be followed with a rise in support, the “coolness” factor will take over. What would be troubling for all is a vote in which the margin is less than 2% and there is doubt about the veracity of the results.
The Independence crowd has won this debate, but will they win the vote?
WORLD NEWS- William Collier- In a major escalation of fighting, Ukrainian forces attacked a convoy of 12 armored Russian vehicles, among which were mostly Russian BMP Infantry Combat Vehicles with 100mm canons. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims to have used artillery to “destroy a major part” of this armed convoy.
The Russians have been demanding the right to send in an aid convoy which many believe is actually filled with arms and munitions, not food, to help the Russian insurgents who have infiltrated into the Eastern Ukraine. The entire “uprising” against the Ukrainian government is peopled at the top by Russians, not Ukrainians, and many of the fighters are actually Russian military in disguise, according to many open press sources in the region.
The Ukrainian government has warned Russia that crossing the border would be seen as an act war. Now the European Union has weighed in, demanding that the Russians stop sending arms and remove all personnel from the Ukraine.
Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Phillip Hammond, scolded the Russian Ambassador to the UK. He said that unless the Russians immediately remove all personnel and vehicles from Ukraine “the consequences will be very serious.”
We had originally assessed that Ukraine could indeed stand up to the Russians in unexpected ways owing to the fervor of its citizens and owing to rapid efforts to upgrade and re-organize their forces. The Ukrainians have removed and repaired equipment held in mothball, they may have received stocks of arms and equipment from Polish inventories (this is not yet confirmed), and they have added new units. These new troops have been in training for months and are now reaching deployment stages. A Russo-Ukraine war would not be a walk-over for Moscow, only Moscow does not seem to believe that.
This attack on a Russian military convoy inside Ukrainian territory proves that the Ukrainians are serious about fighting against Russia if it comes to that. Ukrainian officials also confirmed that Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions from inside Russia is “ongoing”, and a counter artillery response to neutralize those attacks, including the possibility of shelling the Russians who are inside Russia, is not off the table.
Presently Ukrainian forces have the upper hand and, despite the fact the Russian military personnel with Russian hardware have been fighting them, the Ukrainians are surrounding the Russian/separatist forces and defeating them steadily.
This battle may point to the lack of fighting ability and prowess of the Russians compared to their Ukrainian counterparts or it may indicate that Russia has not sent in their best forces yet.
The Polish push to military independence can be seen
through the accelerated missile shield program.
The Patriot Missile System- the initial Polish Missile Shield Deployment
WORLD NEWS- Analysis- William Collier- After the inauguration of President Obama, the US withdrew plans to deploy a missile shield for Europe. This in agreement with Russia. But the Poles, who were supposed to host key elements of the system, have since then proceeded with their plans to deploy a new anti-air and missile shield of their own.
Owing to a robust and growing economy, spurred on by a pro growth economic policy, the Poles have been investing billions in upgrading their military capability. Deployments overseas in support of NATO operations have given their forces experience and have shown the areas of lack. Overall, it is believed the Poles are investing $5 billion in just the anti-missile element new system, within a total increased outlay of $40 billion for their planned rapid upgrading of their military. Currently, the poles have a fixed budget of just under 2% of their gross domestic product for their military. This may be increased shortly as the Poles seem convinced that neither the US nor other NATO allies see the threat of Russian expansionism as clearly as they believe they do.
The final phases of their bidding process for providers of their components of a three-tiered anti-air and anti-missile system are being completed, but the process is now being sped up. Funding is increasing beyond the $5 billion slated for this part of the system. The final two contenders for this project include a consortium of Thales Group, MBDA Missile Systems and the Raytheon Company (Raytheon makes the Patriot system). The total system, which includes missile defense (tier 3), national air defense (tier 2) and local air defense (tier 1) will cost around $13 billion. The Tier 2 system will be capable of shooting down aircraft and cruise missiles, a major new capability, operating 12 batteries. A top competitor is Raytheon’s NASAMS II, a missile system developed with Norway’s Kongsberg Defense. NASAMS stands for “Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System”. NASAMS I was first deployed in 1998, making this a proven system.
Back in March of 2014, Jacek Sonta, spokesman for the Polish Ministry of Defense, told Reuters, “The issues related with Poland’s air defense will be accelerated. Poland plans to choose the best offer for its missile defense in the next few weeks.” This was pushed despite pressure from Washington and Berlin to “not increase tensions”, which they believe Poland’s sped up process would do. The Poles rejected this out of hand citing their right to self-defense and have proceeded rapidly.
Action was spurred on as the Russians began what the Poles see as an expansionist policy, beginning with Russia’s war on Georgia and now with Russian war on the Ukraine. While the Poles are calling for more forward deployment of NATO forces in the former Warsaw Pact countries and the Baltic, Germany and France have resisted such proposals. And so the Poles have come to the conclusion that they must rapidly and dramatically invest in improving their own military.
This requires the almost wholesale replacement of Soviet era equipment and Russian technology in general.
Their missile shield will be as capable as what the Americans would have deployed in Poland, only it will be under total Polish control. Because NATO is not cooperating directly, the new system will also be out of NATO jurisdiction. It is possible that some NATO partners, especially Germany and Italy, will share resources for joint development as those two nations also seek their own missile defense shields.
The significance of all of this is that, if deployed, these systems would actually dramatically reduce the threat of a nuclear war and they would do so without the need for American protection. By withdrawing from missile defense in Europe, the US has ensured a decline in its own influence in Europe. As Poland and other NATO nations increase their defense budgets and capabilities, even while the US military is shrinking in size and investment, it is probable that within 10 to 20 years there will be no real need for American guarantees of security by European nations.
The Polish effort to deploy their own missile shield is serious, well-funded, multi-tiered, and robust. While initial deployment was slated for 2018, plans are under way to accelerate that “as quickly as possible.” The complete system was not slated to be finished until 2022, but this has also been accelerated dramatically.
This will likely mean the use of a modified Patriot system for their first stage of deployment. What is envisioned is a system with better radar and cheaper missiles (a French missile is envisioned). As both the core system and the new components are proven and available “off the shelf”, the Poles could deploy their first batteries for missile defense “within 18 months”, although some want to move even faster than that.
As one Polish officer noted, “every step the Russians take towards the Ukraine only pushes us to speed up the process of building up our forces.” This could become a serious national effort that would transform Poland into a major regional power virtually overnight.
While politicians and activists from both sides of the political spectrum scramble to benefit from Ferguson, we wonder if Ferguson might be a turning point in American history, when people reject the limousine leadership of the left and the right and start leading themselves.
OPINION- William Collier- There is rioting, police brutality, and racial hate menacing the town of Ferguson, MO as a result of the fatal police shooting of 18 year old Michael Brown.
Michael Brown (Social Media screen grab)
Events in Ferguson, Missouri, which is in St. Louis County, have taken a course which alarms many citizens across the political spectrum.
Meanwhile, leaders in Ferguson are calling for people like Al Sharpton to remove themselves from a local problem. They accuse Al Sharpton of inciting a near-riot when he proclaimed that the incident in Ferguson involving a young black man being shot to death by police is ‘bearing witnesses for all of America’, specifically America’s race relations.
According to Sharpton, the Band-Aid has been ripped off, and all of America is seeing that racial hatred is alive and well. The accusations are seen as doing more harm than good, inciting militant activists to violent actions, such as can be seen in Ferguson right now.
PHOTO- Facebook MEME circulating allegedly shows another side of Michael Brown. We have not confirmed that this IS Michael Brown FACEBOOK SCREEN GRAB
Regardless of the act that led up to the unstable situation in Ferguson, the reaction by the local police has been dramatic and militaristic. The police deployed were wearing military-style clothing. They were armed with heavy weapons and drove armored vehicles. They were not facing insurgents, but unarmed protesters.
This overt display of military power on American streets by a local police department has come under scrutiny not just from the protesters, but even from the members of the community who do not support the protesters.
An armored vehicle with a fully automatic weapon manned and ready…against unarmed protesters. PHOTO Provided by ANONYMOUS Twitter user
The incident that triggered the riots and unrest was the shooting of an 18 year old unarmed man, Michael Brown. Michael Brown had a long criminal background before the incident, so the police might well have been aware of who he was. According to the police version of the incident, Brown was assaulting an officer. There was a struggle for the officer’s gun which led to the 7 shots that killed Brown.
A friend of Brown, who is also accused of participating in the assault, claims Brown was attacked for no reason by the police. The friend claims Brown was shot while trying to raise his hands and surrender.
Police supporters claim this is a cut and dry case. They note that the officer was injured in the altercation and that both Brown and his friend have a criminal background (as I noted earlier), including assault (this has been confirmed in the case of Brown, but not in the case of his friend).
Michael Brown supporters say this is a case of police brutality and, now, as charged by Sharpton, racism. In fact, President Obama called Michael Brown’s family to offer condolences before any facts had emerged about the actual nature of the shooting. Obama’s overture to the family is seen by the police supporters to reinforce the narrative that this is about racial hate, not an altercation that went wrong.
Scereen Grab- Fox News covered Al Sharpton’s inflammatory remarks which many local leaders wish he would not have uttered.
But both sides in that debate have problems to contend with.
For the police supporters, there are real and proven incidents of police brutality against members of the community of Ferguson during this unrest. There have even been reporters that have been roughed up, arrested and let go without any paperwork filed, and a number of other documented ‘irregularities’ by this police department. These incidents cannot be brushed aside, and they only serve to offer evidence of a police department gone rogue, one that could possibly have done what Brown’s friend alleges they have done.
Two reporters were arrested, one roughed up, at a local McDonald’s when they were clearly not breaking any laws and, though they were released, no paperwork was filed. Another reporter was shot point blank with a rubber bullet. Additionally, I myself watched a live feed as police, in military gear, with armored vehicles, pushed a crowd of protesters INTO an otherwise quiet and peaceful neighborhood.
The crowd being pressed by the police fled into the neighborhood, running between homes, often being chased by police, bringing chaos to a neighborhood that was not involved in the rioting. The police then proceeded to turn their tear gas and rubber bullets on the people in this neighborhood who had stepped outside to see what was causing all the disturbances on their front lawns and back yards.
The notion that this same police force, the local police force in Ferguson and the St Louis County Sheriff’s Department, never uses excessive force cannot be easily discounted after what has transpired.
For the supporters of Michael Brown, the problem is that the only witness to claim this was police brutality may himself have been involved in the alleged attack on the police officer and, if reports are true (which we have not confirmed), he is himself a criminal.
He certainly has the tattoos that are associated with gangs, say those who disbelieve his story, which we have not confirmed. It had been alleged that the deceased man, 18 year old Michael Brown, had a criminal record already, including burglary and assault. Man posts with links to court records went viral. What is disconcerting about these allegation was that his juvenile record is closed and he is only 18- this means his list of crimes SINCE he turned 18 would be fairly lengthy. His rap sheet is cited as reason to believe the police officer’s version of the events. We have learned that possibly 4 other witnesses have also come forward with similar stories. We have SINCE CONFIRMED- Michael Brown had NO CRIMINAL RECORD and no charges were pending against him.
The shooting took place on August 9, a Saturday, at around noon. After the shooting, efforts to organize protests and reprisals went viral on social media, and by Monday the riots had become severe, resulting in businesses being looted, One local convenience store was not only looted, it was also burned down.
The rioters were further inflamed by the vitriolic and black supremacist rhetoric of the New Black Panther Party, as well as by Al Sharpton, both of whom flew in from out of state to ‘lead’ the protesters’.
The violence-inciting rhetoric was legitimized, police supporters argue, when US Attorney General Eric Holder promised to get involved, as well as by President Obama’s rush to call to offer condolences to Michael Brown’s family before getting the facts of what actually occurred.
But many local citizens and leaders, even those who believe this was police brutality, have accused the politicians and the national figures from outside of making things worse.
I saw one woman on live video, a black woman who had come out of her home. She was outraged at how the violence was encouraged by people from outside the community. She noted that while her taxes were up and schools were failing, these local politicians continue to ask for the “black vote” but do nothing for the black community. The only time political leaders, local or national, show up in a black community is during times like this, in their helicopters and Lear jets, making matter worse for all concerned. She kept saying “they win, they win”. When asked who “they” were, she replied, “them politicians!”
She did not appear to sympathize with police, who she saw come through her quiet neighborhood bullying anyone who was seen outside, even homeowners who were concerned about the ruckus. But she did not endorse the rioting, which she blamed on “people from outside the community coming to stir things up and get their 15 minutes of fame!”
Whatever the truth is now may only matter in the legal sense of the word. The question from the outside looking in is this, who benefits?
There seem to be two opposing views on this:
The first view is from the leadership on the right. They believe that whether the killing was justified or not, leftist agitators saw an opportunity to reinforce the demonizing narrative of the white man attacking the black man. It is the same tactic used by the mullahs of Iran who wish to deflect blame for their own failures away from themselves by attacking the great Satan, America.
In the case of the trusted leftist voting bloc of African Americans, the deflection is away from the failures of democratically controlled governments to deliver prosperity and security to the ghettos of America. If the black community focuses on hating white people, they won’t pay attention to the failure of government, run by Democrats, to give them a good education, offer them a safe place to live and a path to prosperity.
The countervailing view from the leadership of the left is that the police are attempting to agitate the black community in order to create a similar bogeyman, for different voting bloc, this one for republicans, white America. The narrative goes something like this; The black mob is being whipped up to a frenzy by republican-leaning agitators to reinforce the notion that white America should fear violent black America and come back to the republican party to check the growing power of the black-supported left.
As outlandish as these theories sound, they have more than a few adherents, and this is the cause of no small amount of division between Americans. But the police reaction may have a rather interesting effect not foreseen by anyone- people from the left and right, people who are of all races, and people who disagree about the original incident, all seem to agree that what the police in Ferguson are doing to protesters and what outside leaders are doing to stir the pot are equally awful and illegitimate in a free and democratic society of equals.
One sees leftwing and rightwing blogs, as well as social media commentary all saying the same thing- the spectacle of a military-styled police force is detestable on the streets of ANY American neighborhood. It could be that if there are true agitators on the left and the right, neither side will get what they want, greater control over the voting power of a bloc of people. It could be, at the end of the day, when the dust has settled on Ferguson, that the real winners might be the Americans, of all ethnicities and beliefs, who decide to no longer be led by the helicopter-swooping, Lear-jet parking leaders. Rather, they will choose to lead themselves where they are, neighborhood by neighborhood, block by block, town by town, to build pathways to prosperity, security, and liberty.
In Ferguson, it appears, there are no heroes. One can only hope that from such flames, a new resolve is forged in America, to build, where you are, with those who will build with you, what most of us really want, across all divides, the freedom to prosper and pass along to our children a better world than the one we were given.
Let us hope at the end of the day, be they Republicans or Democrats, that we do not say the only winners from Ferguson were ‘them politicians’’.
The Obama Bush- Perfect symbol of the reality today?
Mr. Bill Collier- Fans of comedian and actor Robin Williams were shocked to learn of the actor’s death of suspected suicide by asphyxia.
The actor has starred in countless movies but his big break came portraying that lovable alien “Mork” on the Mork and Mindy Show. Williams battled “severe depression of late” according to his wife and yet was often heard trying to encourage people to just be themselves and have a positive outlook. This role as the nation’s “encourager” was sealed during his appearance as “Patch Adams” in the movie of the same name.
In his latest project, “The Crazy Ones”, Williams played a man named Zach Cropper, a rather zany copywriter working for an ad agency which is run by Simon and his daughter, Sydney.
William’s passing was announced over major media who broke into normal programming to share the news. The official press release follows:
August 11, 2014, at approximately 11:55 a.m, Marin County Communications received a 9-1-1 telephone call reporting a male adult had been located unconscious and not breathing inside his residence in unincorporated Tiburon, CA. The Sheriff’s Office, as well as the Tiburon Fire Department and Southern Marin Fire Protection District were dispatched to the incident with emergency personnel arriving on scene at12:00 pm. The male subject, pronounced deceased at 12:02 pm has been identified as Robin McLaurin Williams, a 63 year old resident of unincorporated Tiburon, CA.
An investigation into the cause, manner, and circumstances of the death is currently underway by the Investigations and Coroner Divisions of the Sheriff’s Office. Preliminary information developed during the investigation indicates Mr. Williams was last seen alive at his residence, where he resides with his wife, at approximately 10:00pm on August 10, 2014. Mr. Williams was located this morning shortly before the 9-1-1 call was placed to Marin County Communications. At this time, the Sheriff’s Office Coroner Division suspects the death to be a suicide due to asphyxia, but a comprehensive investigation must be completed before a final determination is made. A forensic examination is currently scheduled for August 12, 2014 with subsequent toxicology testing to be conducted.
We offer our condolences to and prayers for his family and friends as well as his fans.
William R Collier Jr- The CDC, in what amounts to a reversal of its earlier claims, is now saying that it is inevitable that Ebola will make it to these shores. What is more, the CDC said “the outreak will not be that large.” (more…)
Netanyahu’s Failed Military Strategy Questioned By Some
Scroll to the bottom for any new updates…
ANALYSIS- WORLD NEWS- William Raymond Collier JR- Many IDF officers are privately questioning the leadership of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his conduct of the war in Gaza. The criticisms are aimed at what is seen as indecisiveness. The PM’s office often gives no greater guidance than to attack in response to rocket launches or, as some IDF officers complain, “none at all.”
The IDF leadership are firmly convinced they have the means and skill to finish Hamas off. But the moral high ground once attained by Israel to do this, with the blessing even of major Arab powers who loathe Hamas, is slipping away. It is feared that if things do not change, this war will end as the last one did, a PR victory for Hamas as it prepares for the next round. Indeed, gains won towards actually forging some common ground with Arab powers against the “Jihadist” (Salafist) threat could be ceded if this operation ends indecisively.
When the Prime Minister added as a military goal the limited destruction of the tunnels that go from Gaza into Israel, broad-based penetration of Gaza’s 25 mile western border with Israel had to be scrapped. This sudden departure from the original plan made hash of the IDF logistics and planning efforts. It also resulted in a makeshift and reactionary deployment that still lacks a real strategic focus. Simply going after rocket stockpiles and tunnels does not constitute a strategic aim. In fact, some argue it is not even a tactical aim.
The original plan was aimed at toppling Hamas. The IDF would make 3-4 rapier thrusts across the strip’s 4-7 mile width through areas in between built up areas. Tanks would lead the way and a minimum force would be needed to cordon off the built up areas, thus preventing Hamas from holding a unified command. Then the infantry, with armor support, would focus on one pocket at a time Here the objective would be to further sub-divide the populated area, using main roads for armored thrusts, going neighborhood by neighborhood to take out Hamas. Appeals would be made to civilians- give up Hamas and peace would be possible. The current plan is akin to the Germans invading France and stopping to destroy the Maginot line while the French Army retreated and regrouped. The Germans bypassed the Maginot line altogether and later had ample time to destroy the defenses without meeting resistance from a now-defeated French army.
The IDF have crossed into Gaza on a broad front, with some 22,000 troops and 300 tanks on a 25 mile front, going into built up areas, but staying within a 1/2 mile to a mile of the border. The operation is now focused on the environs around the border to find and destroy tunnels. Again, if we return to our comparison of the German invasion of France in World War Two, had the Germans stopped at the Maginot line and concentrated on destroying those fortifications, the French would have been able to recover and consolidate their force, blunting the Blitzkrieg action that ultimately led to the fall of Paris and the surrender of the French Army.
If Hamas, its leaders, its command and control locations, and its soldiers, were targeted, they would no longer be able to use the tunnels. Israel would be free to destroy the tunnels at their leisure. Netanyahu is focusing instead on those tunnels and assigning artillery and air power to issue salvos in response to either rocket firings or intelligence about rocket storage.
This is leading to civilian casualties. It is not depleting Hamas’s supple of rockets as much as is claimed, and it is putting the IDF at a disadvantage. Meanwhile, Hamas remains in tight control and has unitary command because, beyond Israel’s incursion zone, the Gaza Strip remains cohesive and all the separate population centers are connected by wire and road.
Had the original plan been utilized, and had 40,000 men been deployed, it is likely, many believe, that the casualties on both sides would be lower and Hamas would be defeated, giving the IDF all the time it needed to locate and destroy tunnels in an essentially “cleared” environment. The action would be more like civilian demolition that a battle. But Netanyahu inexplicably abandoned this plan and opted for a very limited and, for both sides, costly operation.
On the ground, his orders have removed Israel’s best asset, the tanks, as practical weapons and placed his soldiers in the places where his enemy wants to fight. In the air and from a distance, without people on the ground, he has been forced to rely on stand-off weapons which, by their nature, have less accuracy than people on the ground.
One thing, however, has not materialized. Hamas had claimed to have some new way to defeat Israeli armor and inflict serious casualties on the IDF. In reality, whle there have been IDF casualties, they have not been near as high as Hamas planned or hoped for and in close order battle Hamas fighters have been more prone to flee. That has not meant that the fight is all one-sided, but it is still tilted heavily in favor of the better armed and better trained Israelis. Hamas, for its part, is switching to a PR offensive now, realizing that the IDF has no intention, at least for now, of actually destroying them “city by city” as was planned by the IDF, and as was feared by Hamas.
Even as open press reports now reveal that many Arab powers are backing any plan that results in the toppling of Hamas, Netanyahu seems determined to keep them in power. And that has many in the Middle East scratching their heads. But look for a possible change of direction as Netanyahu faces growing pressures both from Israelis and from Arabs to “get the job done” once and for all. Such sentiments are not shared by Washington, but the events of the past few weeks have significantly reduced America’s credibility, standing and relevance to the players in the region.
Update: with the latest truce offer having been accepted for 72 hours, and twith the rhetoric out of Israel still focused on tunnels, it appears that Prime Minister Netenyahu has thrown away any grand strategic plan. Destroying the tunnels is not a strategic aim, it is, at best, a tactical gain won at the cost of a major diplomatic setback and undermining of Israel’s standing with Arab powers who might have considered Israel an unlikely (secret) ally against groups like Hamas. Israel is not serious about replacing Hamas.
Update 2: August 1, 2014
The 72 hour truce has not held. The Israelis say that Hamas sent fighters through tunnels who killed two Israeli soldiers and possibly abducted a third. Hamas says Israel broke the truce by sending artillery fire into Rafah, a city in the Gaza strip.
This broken truce, if indeed an Israeli soldier has been adbucted and two killed, could potentially give Netenhayu an opportunity to switch from a short game to a more strategic approach. But it is unlikely as the Prime Minister, who enjoys a 65% popularity rating, has doubled down on his limited plan by scolding cabinet ministers who have questioned his leadership. This has had a chilling effect on others, including IDF officers, who fear the Prime Minister’s wrath.
Most Israelis are not aware of the difference between the strategic plan described here, which military strategists might argue would have caused fewer casualties on both sides and end Hamas as an entity, and the limited tactical plan that targets only tunnels, rocket supplies, and firing sites.
It would seem that the Prime Minister is a wholly political animal who sees this war in purely political, and not military, terms and it may even be that the Prime Minister wishes to keep Hamas around because their actions delegitimize the Palestinians in general. Hamas does tend to delegitimize the Palestinians and as long as they are lobbing rockets Israel does not feel they have to resume real peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, although the cost is that Israelis will continue to live with rocket attacks and daily disruptions of their lives.
US NEWS- William Raymond Collier Jr- In March of 2014, Guinea announced the outbreak of the Ebola virus in their country. Since then ,732 people in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have died, including Guinea’s leading Ebola doctor, who contracted the disease while treating patients.
Much has been said of the Ebola virus and there are fears that the virus could spread to the United States or Europe. The United Kingdom’s Cobra Committee, a committee which has special emergency response functions, has even met to discuss the threat.
There are fears that the virus could spread abroad from West Africa as people travel by air. In fact, Nigeria and many other nations have banned flights from Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. All three countries are launching massive public outreach efforts to raise awareness and isolate the outbreak. But the main problem for these countries stems from a substandard health care system and issues with early detection. If detected early, Ebola can, in fact be treated, but it requires a fairly sophisticated medical regimen that these nations cannot provide. Moreover, with proper sanitary precautions, the potential for an outbreak is also very limited.
According to the Centers for Disease Control, this is the treatment for Ebola- Standard treatment for Ebola HF is still limited to supportive therapy. This consists of:balancing the patient’s fluids and electrolytesmaintaining their oxygen status and blood pressuretreating them for any complicating infections.
Timely treatment of Ebola HF is important, but challenging, since the disease is difficult to diagnose clinically in the early stages of infection. Because early symptoms such as headache and fever are nonspecific to ebola viruses, cases of Ebola HF may be initially misdiagnosed.
However, if a person has the early symptoms of Ebola HF and there is reason to believe that Ebola HF should be considered, the patient should be isolated and public health professionals notified. Supportive therapy can continue with proper protective clothing until samples from the patient are tested to confirm infection.
This treatment regimen, as provided by the CDC, requires a sophisticated medical response and capability that is lacking in the affected countries.
Were an Ebola infected individual to arrive in the US or Europe, especially with existing screening measures, the likelihood of them contaminating someone else would be reduced simply because of existing sanitary measures. Once health officials determined they had Ebola, a fairly sophisticated system for finding and screening anyone they came into contact with is in place.
The virus spreads by more intimate contact. In other words, by bodily fluids or by eating or drinking anything the infected person has allowed to come into contact with bodily fluids, or by sharing utensils. In the West, our culture and our sanitary regimen mitigate against much of this.
To be clear- the virus is only transmitted via contact with such bodily fluis blood, urine, faeces, saliva, or puss (from open sores) – and thenfrom someone showing symptoms of Ebola.
If someone is infected and it is caught early on, treatment is known to work and, like any virus, Ebola is eventually killed by the body’s immune system. There is no “cure” other than to treat the patient as prescribed and allow their immune system to do its job, which eventually it will. So when you read that “there is no cure”, that is true, just as there is no cure for the common cold!
This does not mean that it is impossible for some people to initially catch Ebola from a foreign passenger and, if their infection is not detected, for some to even die. Exercising an abundance of caution when traveling to affected locations or when interacting with people who have come from those locations is prudent and necessary.
But once anyone has been discovered to be infected, in the US or Europe the regimens in place to quickly isolate them and find everyone they have been in contact with and the degree of intimate contact needed to become infected will severely limit any outbreak in the West.
The real issue and concern should be, after of course proper precautions have been taken at home, those people in the affected countries who do not have all these advantages and who are even now living in fear for their lives from this deadly outbreak.
An excellent article with interviews of health officials and statements from WHO and the CDC should also help allay fears. VOX Article On Ebola
Hamas, a brutal occupier of Gaza, oppressing and murdering Muslim and Jew, Palestinian and Israeli alike
OPINION- William R Collier Jr- There seems to be a trend among those who believe that Israel is riding roughshod over the Arab Palestinians, and it is a dangerous trend…for Arabs and Muslims. That trend is the excusing of extremist violence and tyranny directed not at Israel but at fellow Arabs by the likes of Hamas, Hezbollah, and ISIS. Average normal Muslims who want to live in a free and modern society, who embrace the values of tolerance and liberty, even for non-Muslims in their midst, are infidels to these bad actors.
The continued allowance and excuse-making for any group or entity that opposes the Israelis is only making those radical, hateful, and despotic groups more powerful in the Middle East. Countries that wish to prevent the spread of tyrannical Salafism in their land need to think twice about supporting radical Salafists abroad, as we see with Qatar and its near love affair with Hamas. Does a true Muslim use his own children and wife as a human shield while cowering behind women’s skirts to make war? I have never met a real Muslim who would not despise this, but when Hamas does this, few Arab or Muslim countries openly rebuke it as they should. I can only think of Egypt as one Muslim nation that has openly rebuked these practices by Hamas.
Even among Palestinians, there is a growing jingoistic fervor that is causing otherwise kind and decent Muslims, whose moderation is itself offensive to groups like Hamas, to look the other way, to make excuses for Hamas, while Hamas grows in strength. Sadly, if the trend continues, Hamas will march right into the West Bank and many an Arab and a Muslim will see what terror Hamas itself inflicts on its own people. Who needs the Israeli “occupation”: when Hamas occupies any space everyone who fails to follow their throwback ideology of barbarism disguised as Islam will suffer. They cause Palestinians to suffer even worse than if Israel occupied their land.
The damage being done to the Muslim world and Arab nations is immense. There is a growing suspicion in America that Hamas and Hezbollah, and even ISIL, are the true face of the Arab and Muslim world and the negative consequences could be tremendous. While this is not true (anyone who knows anything about the Arab world can easily attest to that), seeing no real alternative than these Salafist totalitarian extremists, Americans will assume it is.
Never mind that President Obama is largely ignoring this popular sentiment, for he will not be president forever. It is possible that the next president will be so influenced by this sentiment that the US will become increasingly hostile to Arab and Muslim nations and lump them all in with the likes of Hamas.
Three nations, two not even Arab, are making this possible. They are Turkey, Iran, and Qatar. Turkey is lurching towards becoming a Salafist dictatorship under Erdogan, Iran is a Salafist dictatorship, and Qatar is just, apparently, trying to placate Salafists, hoping that its neighbors, instead of itself, earn the ire of those radical fascists. These three nations are giving the Salafist totalitarians money and diplomatic cover, and even weapons.
Is the dream of a Palestinian state free of Jewish occupation worth the cost of raising up an occupier like Hamas, which hates all Arabs and Muslims who fail to adhere to its Salafist totalitarianism? Would Hamas not be a more brutal occupier of Palestinian lands than the Israelis?
Salafist radicalism is as much the enemy to average moderate, decent, and freedom loving Muslims as it is to Christians and even Jews. Whatever the Arab beef with Israel, using and empowering Hamas as a weapon against Israel is a dangerous game that is not worth the risk to the peace, safety, and freedom of Arabs and Muslims in general.
I want a free Gaza. why not start by freeing Gaza from Hamas?
A People-Powered Community Press Model From Tioga County, PA
Our First Local Newspaper- The Tioga Freedomist- Tioga County PA
FREEDOM ESSAY- William Raymond Collier JR- Nestled firmly in mountain valleys, Tioga County PA is the center of what is called “the Twin Tiers”, a highly mountainous and verdant region on the borders of New York’s Southern Tier and Pennsylvania’s Northern Tier. Sleepy, mostly rural, but with some towns, and not often the source of national news, the Twin Tiers and Tioga County PA in particular are home to what may very well be a new model for a truly free and independent press. In short, the region may not “make the news” often but it is actually remaking the way news will be done in the whole nation through a new model for news reporting and dissemination that is profitable.
The new model is being tried, tested, and refined through a local and now regional digital newspaper with a print edition in Tioga County as the starting point. Within 2 years of its launch, the Tioga Freedomist has achieved remarkable market penetration.
In its immediate coverage area of around 200,000 people, the heart of the Twin Tiers, this relatively new media entity reaches over 65,000 readers through print, social media, and its main website, Tiogafreedomist.com. What is more, of those 65,000 plus regional readers, 30,000 come from Tioga County PA alone, which has a total population of 46,000. This means that this new publication has a regional market penetration of around 32.5% and a local market penetration of around 65%.
How has this degree of market penetration been achieved in only two years?
The phrase “your people powered community press- free and independent” sums up the basic model. The newspaper relies on actual reader participation in the news gathering process, teaching readers basic rules and methods of journalism along the way; it uses a Watchdog, Advocate, and Resource model (or “WAR” for short) for determining news content; and it remains focused on being free and independent with a special focus on the original spirit and intent of the Bill of Rights (which we believe all press SHOULD focus on objectively and fairly).
People want news that has this balance (Watchdog, Advocacy, and Resource news). They want to be empowered to participate in news gathering and reporting. They want news that is fair and freedom focused (remembering that “free” is the first ethical imperative of the “free press”), and they want news that is written in the language of real people instead of the cold “emotionless” language of the old media establishment.
While the Tioga Freedomist has its own unique editorial leanings, it welcomes, and receives, all views across the political spectrum- this empowerment of readers to advocate for their views and convictions is a vital part of the “community press” mission.
The numbers prove the point. More and more local and regional readers are coming to the Tioga Freedomist not only to get news but to participate actively. Readers lead many stories and are often the best or only sources of accurate information. Readers use this platform to help one another- hundreds of thousands of dollars in funds or direct aide have been raised by readers using the Tioga Freedomist to rally supporters. It is not unusual, for instance, for a story on a fire to be followed with an appeal for donations to help the people involved. This appeal, usually posted by a reader, is then promoted through the newspaper’s resources to reach its large audience.
Of course, advertisers use this platform to reach potential customers and as the “secret” of this newspaper’s market penetration gets out more and more local businesses are shifting their advertising budgets to include this newspaper’s print, social media, and website advertising options. For funding, the Tioga Freedomist depends on earning advertising dollars, using nothing but free market principles.
The parent company, Kross Publishing, which also owns this national digital newspaper and many other properties, has invested in building the local and regional audience in order to earn advertising revenue. The ability to invest during the first two years while the newspaper was gaining advertising revenue as a result of growing in market share has made the current success possible.
This model of a people-powered community press that is free and independent is the future of local journalism. The need for accurate news that includes Watchdog, Advocacy, and Resource reporting and coverage has not gone away. What has changed are three key things- the delivery (a combination of social media, print, and websites), the style of writing (lose the emotionless “AP style” and don’t just push YOUR views- be inclusive), and the process (reader participation leads, not the agenda of editors or owners).
A community press must be “owned” by its readers. If readers truly own it, advertisers who want to reach those readers must follow, and thereby profit is not merely possible but inevitable.
Welcome to the new model for community based journalism- a people powered free press that is free and independent to its core.
NOTE: William Raymond Collier JR is the Editor of the Tioga Freedomist. Paul Gordon Collier, the co-editor of The Freedomist, is the Digital Media Director.
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