bill collier

It’s the Monetary Policy, Stupid

W R Collier Jr August 31, 2015

Bill Collier with Monetary Policy Expert George Gilder at the Jackson Hole Summit

Presidential Candidates Ignore the 5th Element For Economic Growth

R. Collier Jr- Today’s candidates for the White House have announced the economic platforms of their campaigns, and among the Republican candidates who are trying to gain traction in the face of Trump’s poll numbers and celebrity, the fare is rather light when you consider that they either give scant attention to or ignore the fifth element of economic growth- monetary policy.

It may not be a terribly interesting issue, but money is everywhere and drives everything, so why wouldn’t one make money, how it is valued and managed, THE central aspect of your economic platform IF you, as a candidate, are truly serious about real and sustained growth for everyone?

I recently attended a summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (put on by The American Principles Project who, full disclosure, sponsored my trip to the event), in which leading luminaries of the free market and of monetary policy focused on the issues and problems of monetary policy as enacted by the Federal Reserve. The focus was on economic growth, or, rather, the desire and need to re-stimulate economic growth and to discern the impact of a central bank, like the Fed, on economic growth.

It is true that economic growth which includes all sectors and most all people is a key factor for ending problems ranging from poverty to the deficit, to national debt, and even our imbalance of trade. Growth that is productive and that reaches into every home sustains many advances. As former President John Kennedy said, “A rising tide lifts all boats.”

There are five major elements that impact economic growth
Tax policy
Fiscal policy
Trade policy
Regulatory policy
Monetary policy

Under Reagan and Clinton, George W and Obama, we did not have major operational difference in ANY of these elements of economic growth except for ONE, the fifth element, monetary policy.

Under Reagan and Clinton we had 4% annual growth. Under George W and Obama, 2% or less annual growth (George HW raised taxes which, it can be argued, drove us into a recession).

From “The Great Moderation” under the Fed, which reigned during the Reagan-Clinton years, we went to a boom and bust cycle after 2000. Average Americans prospered, as did the wealthy. Since 2000, the wealthy may have gone from boom to bust to boom and back again, but average Americans went from doing OK, to not doing OK, to doing poorly, to even worse and, finally, to near hopelessness.

If the economy is a fire that we want to keep burning in a manner that keeps us warm from the “elements” of poverty, without burning our house down, then money is like oxygen. Too little oxygen and the fire goes out, too much and the fire gets out of control (you get things like massive inflation that burns the house down).

Monetary policy, how we manage money supply through things like interest rates and the amount of currency in circulation, is not only the fifth element of economic success, it has been the only element changed in an operational and substantive manner since the Reagan-Clinton growth period (The Great Moderation) and thus is THE lead suspect behind the dramatic fall-off of growth (shall we call it The Great Regression?) since 2000 during the Bush-Obama malaise. In fact, 2% growth is really 0% growth per capita because our population grows by 2% a year. (If you want to see real wealth increase, you need an economic growth rate higher than the population growth rate.)

Think of it like this: if we had the extra 2% growth for the last 15 years most everyone, like YOU and me, would have 30% higher incomes, 30% more real property wealth, 30% more in our 401k’s and retirement plans, and 30% more money in the bank.

And yet, for all that, today’s Presidential candidates are focused on the other four elements, while none of them are seriously talking about the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. As John Fund said at The Jackson Hole Summit, “it (the Fed) is the dog that didn’t bark.” Indeed, nobody is barking about monetary policy- how we value the dollar and manage the supply of money.

Where is Ted Cruz? While Rand Paul has touched on this, he has not made it central to his economic platform. The same can be said of them all- monetary policy is the one major change in all economic factors from 2000 that has led to 15 years of economic malaise, therefore, addressing this should be THE central issue of this campaign.

The candidate who can address this with something rational and workable and who can articulate this will rise, even above the heights of mere celebrity.

The Cyber Battle for Iraq

W R Collier Jr July 22, 2014

WORLD NEWS
William R. Collier Jr

Iraq’s warring factions, and the government, have come to the realization that controlling cyber-space is a necessary war-fighting element, as important as land warfare or aerial domination. Cyberspace, the place where people communicate, get information, and collaborate is the new target. Those who dominate the landscape can operate freely while preventing their enemy from operating freely.

We have learned how ISIL/ISIS has used cyberspace for sophisticated command and control, giving them quite modern and advanced communications capabilities once only available to first world nations. Simply turning off the space is becoming as difficult as turning off the sky: too many communications and transactions depend on the existence of that space.

In Iran, for instance, during the 2009 uprising the government tried to turn off the space. The problem? Millions of government and financial transactions required the use of that space. So the internet was “turned back on” and the government tried to control the space. Today, the ability of governments to control that space short of turning it off is limited. A simple software solution, such as creating a program that filters out certain sites based on content or location, will not work- insurgents and criminals can get around those blocks or simply burrow deep into “spaces” (websites or social networks) that are not blocked.

Criminals and insurgents in Iraq have taken to employing groups of cyber operators. Some act as sleuths, some create malware and other programs designed to spy on targeted computers and networks, some operate “clone accounts” to insinuate themselves into groups, some conduct “operations” (like denial of service attacks, physhing schemes that are meant to steal user names and passwords) and still others operate web crawling and spidering tools to obtain data.

In Iraq, cyber warfare observers have noted that full-on cyber war is being waged. In one instance, a Trojan Horse program was inserted through a link to a “friendly” article clicked on by the targets. The program turned on microphones and video and allowed ISIL to literally see and hear the internal workings of an opposition group operating in Iraq.

Of all the actors, including the government, ISIL has perhaps invested the most resources into these operations, while their operators have also devised clever ways to maintain secure communications for a sophisticated command and control. We have even hear rumors of an ISIL program that allows for a missile hack whereby a “dumb” rocket is guided to a target by Google maps. This is not as precise as US “smart munitions”, but it is far more sophisticated than what has been available.

The now “old” idea of tracking IP addresses is also not enough. These groups create multiple layers of proxy servers and, now, “ip hopping” programs change the IP address of a server every few seconds. The best way to locate the enemy is to actually get an operator into their network who obtains that information, or enough hints to allow for “investigations” to track locations.

It is believed that ISIL operators succeeded in tracking an Iraqi police chief to his home, the location of which had been a closely guarded secret, by infiltrating an online group and inserting a “snooper” program into the police HQ’s computer network which had been accessible to informants. The infamous video of his beheading is proof enough that, for ISIL. cyber warfare is a major component of their warfare.

Near as we can tell, the Iraqi government has not been up to the task of countering this. Cyber space in Iraq is dominated by closely knit groups. The government’s operations are compromised because there are infiltrators involved and they have not worked out a process for vetting potential cyber operators that has worked. Only government cyber units that are coherent by tribe and sect have had any real success in preventing infiltration.

So the cyber landscape for average Iraqis is a dangerous one, although most malware infections have been rather targeted. Generally when “civilians” have had their computers compromised, it is because they are associated with or physically near a target of such operations. We are witnessing the first “collateral damage” due to cyber warfare.

But could this cyber battlefield be extended?

ISIL, for its part, envisions a Caliphate stretching from the Turkish border that includes the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula at least. Future targets of their cyber warfare will include all those nations and, possibly, even Turkey (this despite reports that Turkey’s Prime Minister has been secretly sending them arms).

All around the world, criminals and potential insurgents are seeing cyber space as the next frontier in lateral warfare or guerrilla warfare and many of the world’s governments are ill prepared for this onslaught.

We Declare WAR On The Gutless Old Progressives

W R Collier Jr October 10, 2013

The GOP elite have declared war on freedomist-like groups, including Freedomworks, the Senate Conservative Fund, and Heritage along with the Tea Party and any other freedom-minded group that INSISTS on adhering to the original spirit and intent of the Bill of Rights, the Constitution, and the Declaration of Independence.

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Capitol Hill Shooting

W R Collier Jr October 3, 2013

QUESTIONS NEED ANSWERED- Why???

We have received information, still not confirmed, that Miriam Carey, 34 year old female from Connecticut, a dental hygienist, was shot, according to our sources, while exiting her car after a dramatic chase that virtually shut down Capitol Hill.

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Freedom is the BIG DOG

W R Collier Jr August 23, 2013

The Little Dog Syndrome- Progressive Reality Exposed

William R Collier Jr

Do you hear that yipping? Do you walk by a neighbor’s yard and witness the rabid determination of those little dogs that tear at you and threaten you with a great menace from behind a locked gate? If so, then you will understand what I have to say about the little progressive dog now yipping incessantly at the Freedomists as we walk past their protected yard.

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Salafism and Statism: Partners In Crime

W R Collier Jr August 13, 2013

By Bill Collier- While many nations refuse to use the term “War On Terror”, (the ongoing war on a strategy which aims at the front groups and not the underlying Salafist ideology behind them, or its promoters) this ongoing low-grade war is costing most citizens more and more of their freedom.
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