By William R Collier Jr
War warning Europe. That might sound incredibly sensational and unbelievable, but the calculus being employed by the Russians and the Europeans right now are both based on such faulty logic as to make the potential for a general European war possible.

The European calculus is to assume that the inter regnum period after the falll of the USSR represents a true and lasting world order, a condominium built on globalist economics and collective security backed by “the sole remaining superpower”, America. This calculus sees all bellicose rhetoric as mere postering, jockying for a better bargaining position on the world stage. When the Russians talk of their own “Drang Nach Westen” it is dismissed as not being a serious literal threat: perhaps, the calculus predicts, they want a better trade deal with the EU or more favorable terms with the IMF, but raw nationalistic, jingoistic imperialism, why, that is so “18th century”!

As for the Russian calculus, they have deduced that Europe is stuck in the mire of their myth of the 21st century, their false belief that we are “beyond” a ground war in Europe, their belief that their US/Western “condominium” is invincible “because of trade ties”. The Russians calculate that Europe will not fight, even if and when Russians focres debauch from Crimea, the East, and from the West in Moldova into the Ukrainian heartland. Of course the Ukrainian leadership has been amazingly feckless and has not mobilized for war, and so while the Ukrainians could fight back hard, it is becoming obvious that they will not do so.

But the European calcusus is wrong, the inter-regnum is over, welcome to a multipolar war of chaos and upheaval! The Russians are no less or more imperialistic than those who use a “world order” and “world trade” to create empires, but the Russians recognize that the time when raw force was not needed to forge empires is over. The past is truly prologue.

But if the Russians think that the old imperial eagle is incapable to seducing the European masses when they feel threatened and abandoned by the old protector, America, then they are wrong. The Germans and the Eastern Europeans alone could take matters in their own hands, especially if they see Russia advancing and the Great Protector retreating in shame. Look for some anxious moments over Kaliningrad (Konigsburg), with the Poles and Lithuanians, surprisingly, prefering a German as opposed to a Russian presence there. Once the Russians undermine faith in the myth of a world beyond empires, the ancient cravings will gnaw away at the imagination of the masses who will want to see their flag flying high on the field of victory.

What might cause a war is that the Europeans don’t believe Russia would dare launch a war and the Russians don’t believe the Europeans will respond. But the Germans and many Eastern European nations have a strong Drang Nach Osten thing going on, they want to hem the Russian bear in lest it break its bonds and reconquer their lands.

This is why a general war warning for Europe, which we issue when probability of war exceeds 10%, is needed for Europe itself. The Bear is coming and so is the response.