Commentary- William Collier – The debate on Scottish Independence (held on August 25, 2014) did not go well for the British faction. The argument against Independence stood, and perhaps fell, on a threat that an independent Scotland would lose the British Pound Sterling and would not be able to stand up an alternative.
Telling the Scotts “we don’t want independence or the British Exchequer will squeeze us” is not really a “rallying call.” The pro British side should have pushed the values of Scotland within the union in a positive way, not making threats of the UK punishing Scotland its centerpiece.
The Scotts could certainly make the UK suffer in return, consider the North Sea oil and the very important UK naval bases, including a specialized based for British nuclear subs, located in Scotland. Moreover, independent or not, Scotland remaining in a currency union would be better for both sides. Interestingly, while the pro Independence guy (Salmond) won the debate with the best zingers, he really failed to make these points. It may be, however, that he is thinking that if the vote goes his way it would be impolitic to make such brazen overt threats against the UK as a negotiating tactic.
Polls allege the pro Union side gets 51% of the vote while the pro Independence side gets 38%: but anyone over 16 can vote and turnout models have no clue which demographics will, well, turn out! In social media and, according to many reports I have read, the pro Independence narrative is the “cool” thing for young people. “Cool” is that undefinable factor that makes hash of the pollster’s best predictions.
I would predict…the unpredictable. This vote will be a surprise. But if the vote against independence is not a strong majority, 8% or more, the issue is not over, no matter what anyone else says. A close vote for independence will be followed with a rise in support, the “coolness” factor will take over. What would be troubling for all is a vote in which the margin is less than 2% and there is doubt about the veracity of the results.
The Independence crowd has won this debate, but will they win the vote?
WORLD NEWS- William Collier- In a major escalation of fighting, Ukrainian forces attacked a convoy of 12 armored Russian vehicles, among which were mostly Russian BMP Infantry Combat Vehicles with 100mm canons. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims to have used artillery to “destroy a major part” of this armed convoy.
The Russians have been demanding the right to send in an aid convoy which many believe is actually filled with arms and munitions, not food, to help the Russian insurgents who have infiltrated into the Eastern Ukraine. The entire “uprising” against the Ukrainian government is peopled at the top by Russians, not Ukrainians, and many of the fighters are actually Russian military in disguise, according to many open press sources in the region.
The Ukrainian government has warned Russia that crossing the border would be seen as an act war. Now the European Union has weighed in, demanding that the Russians stop sending arms and remove all personnel from the Ukraine.
Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Phillip Hammond, scolded the Russian Ambassador to the UK. He said that unless the Russians immediately remove all personnel and vehicles from Ukraine “the consequences will be very serious.”
We had originally assessed that Ukraine could indeed stand up to the Russians in unexpected ways owing to the fervor of its citizens and owing to rapid efforts to upgrade and re-organize their forces. The Ukrainians have removed and repaired equipment held in mothball, they may have received stocks of arms and equipment from Polish inventories (this is not yet confirmed), and they have added new units. These new troops have been in training for months and are now reaching deployment stages. A Russo-Ukraine war would not be a walk-over for Moscow, only Moscow does not seem to believe that.
This attack on a Russian military convoy inside Ukrainian territory proves that the Ukrainians are serious about fighting against Russia if it comes to that. Ukrainian officials also confirmed that Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions from inside Russia is “ongoing”, and a counter artillery response to neutralize those attacks, including the possibility of shelling the Russians who are inside Russia, is not off the table.
Presently Ukrainian forces have the upper hand and, despite the fact the Russian military personnel with Russian hardware have been fighting them, the Ukrainians are surrounding the Russian/separatist forces and defeating them steadily.
This battle may point to the lack of fighting ability and prowess of the Russians compared to their Ukrainian counterparts or it may indicate that Russia has not sent in their best forces yet.
The Polish push to military independence can be seen
through the accelerated missile shield program.
The Patriot Missile System- the initial Polish Missile Shield Deployment
WORLD NEWS- Analysis- William Collier- After the inauguration of President Obama, the US withdrew plans to deploy a missile shield for Europe. This in agreement with Russia. But the Poles, who were supposed to host key elements of the system, have since then proceeded with their plans to deploy a new anti-air and missile shield of their own.
Owing to a robust and growing economy, spurred on by a pro growth economic policy, the Poles have been investing billions in upgrading their military capability. Deployments overseas in support of NATO operations have given their forces experience and have shown the areas of lack. Overall, it is believed the Poles are investing $5 billion in just the anti-missile element new system, within a total increased outlay of $40 billion for their planned rapid upgrading of their military. Currently, the poles have a fixed budget of just under 2% of their gross domestic product for their military. This may be increased shortly as the Poles seem convinced that neither the US nor other NATO allies see the threat of Russian expansionism as clearly as they believe they do.
The final phases of their bidding process for providers of their components of a three-tiered anti-air and anti-missile system are being completed, but the process is now being sped up. Funding is increasing beyond the $5 billion slated for this part of the system. The final two contenders for this project include a consortium of Thales Group, MBDA Missile Systems and the Raytheon Company (Raytheon makes the Patriot system). The total system, which includes missile defense (tier 3), national air defense (tier 2) and local air defense (tier 1) will cost around $13 billion. The Tier 2 system will be capable of shooting down aircraft and cruise missiles, a major new capability, operating 12 batteries. A top competitor is Raytheon’s NASAMS II, a missile system developed with Norway’s Kongsberg Defense. NASAMS stands for “Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System”. NASAMS I was first deployed in 1998, making this a proven system.
Back in March of 2014, Jacek Sonta, spokesman for the Polish Ministry of Defense, told Reuters, “The issues related with Poland’s air defense will be accelerated. Poland plans to choose the best offer for its missile defense in the next few weeks.” This was pushed despite pressure from Washington and Berlin to “not increase tensions”, which they believe Poland’s sped up process would do. The Poles rejected this out of hand citing their right to self-defense and have proceeded rapidly.
Action was spurred on as the Russians began what the Poles see as an expansionist policy, beginning with Russia’s war on Georgia and now with Russian war on the Ukraine. While the Poles are calling for more forward deployment of NATO forces in the former Warsaw Pact countries and the Baltic, Germany and France have resisted such proposals. And so the Poles have come to the conclusion that they must rapidly and dramatically invest in improving their own military.
This requires the almost wholesale replacement of Soviet era equipment and Russian technology in general.
Their missile shield will be as capable as what the Americans would have deployed in Poland, only it will be under total Polish control. Because NATO is not cooperating directly, the new system will also be out of NATO jurisdiction. It is possible that some NATO partners, especially Germany and Italy, will share resources for joint development as those two nations also seek their own missile defense shields.
The significance of all of this is that, if deployed, these systems would actually dramatically reduce the threat of a nuclear war and they would do so without the need for American protection. By withdrawing from missile defense in Europe, the US has ensured a decline in its own influence in Europe. As Poland and other NATO nations increase their defense budgets and capabilities, even while the US military is shrinking in size and investment, it is probable that within 10 to 20 years there will be no real need for American guarantees of security by European nations.
The Polish effort to deploy their own missile shield is serious, well-funded, multi-tiered, and robust. While initial deployment was slated for 2018, plans are under way to accelerate that “as quickly as possible.” The complete system was not slated to be finished until 2022, but this has also been accelerated dramatically.
This will likely mean the use of a modified Patriot system for their first stage of deployment. What is envisioned is a system with better radar and cheaper missiles (a French missile is envisioned). As both the core system and the new components are proven and available “off the shelf”, the Poles could deploy their first batteries for missile defense “within 18 months”, although some want to move even faster than that.
As one Polish officer noted, “every step the Russians take towards the Ukraine only pushes us to speed up the process of building up our forces.” This could become a serious national effort that would transform Poland into a major regional power virtually overnight.
While politicians and activists from both sides of the political spectrum scramble to benefit from Ferguson, we wonder if Ferguson might be a turning point in American history, when people reject the limousine leadership of the left and the right and start leading themselves.
OPINION- William Collier- There is rioting, police brutality, and racial hate menacing the town of Ferguson, MO as a result of the fatal police shooting of 18 year old Michael Brown.
Michael Brown (Social Media screen grab)
Events in Ferguson, Missouri, which is in St. Louis County, have taken a course which alarms many citizens across the political spectrum.
Meanwhile, leaders in Ferguson are calling for people like Al Sharpton to remove themselves from a local problem. They accuse Al Sharpton of inciting a near-riot when he proclaimed that the incident in Ferguson involving a young black man being shot to death by police is ‘bearing witnesses for all of America’, specifically America’s race relations.
According to Sharpton, the Band-Aid has been ripped off, and all of America is seeing that racial hatred is alive and well. The accusations are seen as doing more harm than good, inciting militant activists to violent actions, such as can be seen in Ferguson right now.
PHOTO- Facebook MEME circulating allegedly shows another side of Michael Brown. We have not confirmed that this IS Michael Brown FACEBOOK SCREEN GRAB
Regardless of the act that led up to the unstable situation in Ferguson, the reaction by the local police has been dramatic and militaristic. The police deployed were wearing military-style clothing. They were armed with heavy weapons and drove armored vehicles. They were not facing insurgents, but unarmed protesters.
This overt display of military power on American streets by a local police department has come under scrutiny not just from the protesters, but even from the members of the community who do not support the protesters.
An armored vehicle with a fully automatic weapon manned and ready…against unarmed protesters. PHOTO Provided by ANONYMOUS Twitter user
The incident that triggered the riots and unrest was the shooting of an 18 year old unarmed man, Michael Brown. Michael Brown had a long criminal background before the incident, so the police might well have been aware of who he was. According to the police version of the incident, Brown was assaulting an officer. There was a struggle for the officer’s gun which led to the 7 shots that killed Brown.
A friend of Brown, who is also accused of participating in the assault, claims Brown was attacked for no reason by the police. The friend claims Brown was shot while trying to raise his hands and surrender.
Police supporters claim this is a cut and dry case. They note that the officer was injured in the altercation and that both Brown and his friend have a criminal background (as I noted earlier), including assault (this has been confirmed in the case of Brown, but not in the case of his friend).
Michael Brown supporters say this is a case of police brutality and, now, as charged by Sharpton, racism. In fact, President Obama called Michael Brown’s family to offer condolences before any facts had emerged about the actual nature of the shooting. Obama’s overture to the family is seen by the police supporters to reinforce the narrative that this is about racial hate, not an altercation that went wrong.
Scereen Grab- Fox News covered Al Sharpton’s inflammatory remarks which many local leaders wish he would not have uttered.
But both sides in that debate have problems to contend with.
For the police supporters, there are real and proven incidents of police brutality against members of the community of Ferguson during this unrest. There have even been reporters that have been roughed up, arrested and let go without any paperwork filed, and a number of other documented ‘irregularities’ by this police department. These incidents cannot be brushed aside, and they only serve to offer evidence of a police department gone rogue, one that could possibly have done what Brown’s friend alleges they have done.
Two reporters were arrested, one roughed up, at a local McDonald’s when they were clearly not breaking any laws and, though they were released, no paperwork was filed. Another reporter was shot point blank with a rubber bullet. Additionally, I myself watched a live feed as police, in military gear, with armored vehicles, pushed a crowd of protesters INTO an otherwise quiet and peaceful neighborhood.
The crowd being pressed by the police fled into the neighborhood, running between homes, often being chased by police, bringing chaos to a neighborhood that was not involved in the rioting. The police then proceeded to turn their tear gas and rubber bullets on the people in this neighborhood who had stepped outside to see what was causing all the disturbances on their front lawns and back yards.
The notion that this same police force, the local police force in Ferguson and the St Louis County Sheriff’s Department, never uses excessive force cannot be easily discounted after what has transpired.
For the supporters of Michael Brown, the problem is that the only witness to claim this was police brutality may himself have been involved in the alleged attack on the police officer and, if reports are true (which we have not confirmed), he is himself a criminal.
He certainly has the tattoos that are associated with gangs, say those who disbelieve his story, which we have not confirmed. It had been alleged that the deceased man, 18 year old Michael Brown, had a criminal record already, including burglary and assault. Man posts with links to court records went viral. What is disconcerting about these allegation was that his juvenile record is closed and he is only 18- this means his list of crimes SINCE he turned 18 would be fairly lengthy. His rap sheet is cited as reason to believe the police officer’s version of the events. We have learned that possibly 4 other witnesses have also come forward with similar stories. We have SINCE CONFIRMED- Michael Brown had NO CRIMINAL RECORD and no charges were pending against him.
The shooting took place on August 9, a Saturday, at around noon. After the shooting, efforts to organize protests and reprisals went viral on social media, and by Monday the riots had become severe, resulting in businesses being looted, One local convenience store was not only looted, it was also burned down.
The rioters were further inflamed by the vitriolic and black supremacist rhetoric of the New Black Panther Party, as well as by Al Sharpton, both of whom flew in from out of state to ‘lead’ the protesters’.
The violence-inciting rhetoric was legitimized, police supporters argue, when US Attorney General Eric Holder promised to get involved, as well as by President Obama’s rush to call to offer condolences to Michael Brown’s family before getting the facts of what actually occurred.
But many local citizens and leaders, even those who believe this was police brutality, have accused the politicians and the national figures from outside of making things worse.
I saw one woman on live video, a black woman who had come out of her home. She was outraged at how the violence was encouraged by people from outside the community. She noted that while her taxes were up and schools were failing, these local politicians continue to ask for the “black vote” but do nothing for the black community. The only time political leaders, local or national, show up in a black community is during times like this, in their helicopters and Lear jets, making matter worse for all concerned. She kept saying “they win, they win”. When asked who “they” were, she replied, “them politicians!”
She did not appear to sympathize with police, who she saw come through her quiet neighborhood bullying anyone who was seen outside, even homeowners who were concerned about the ruckus. But she did not endorse the rioting, which she blamed on “people from outside the community coming to stir things up and get their 15 minutes of fame!”
Whatever the truth is now may only matter in the legal sense of the word. The question from the outside looking in is this, who benefits?
There seem to be two opposing views on this:
The first view is from the leadership on the right. They believe that whether the killing was justified or not, leftist agitators saw an opportunity to reinforce the demonizing narrative of the white man attacking the black man. It is the same tactic used by the mullahs of Iran who wish to deflect blame for their own failures away from themselves by attacking the great Satan, America.
In the case of the trusted leftist voting bloc of African Americans, the deflection is away from the failures of democratically controlled governments to deliver prosperity and security to the ghettos of America. If the black community focuses on hating white people, they won’t pay attention to the failure of government, run by Democrats, to give them a good education, offer them a safe place to live and a path to prosperity.
The countervailing view from the leadership of the left is that the police are attempting to agitate the black community in order to create a similar bogeyman, for different voting bloc, this one for republicans, white America. The narrative goes something like this; The black mob is being whipped up to a frenzy by republican-leaning agitators to reinforce the notion that white America should fear violent black America and come back to the republican party to check the growing power of the black-supported left.
As outlandish as these theories sound, they have more than a few adherents, and this is the cause of no small amount of division between Americans. But the police reaction may have a rather interesting effect not foreseen by anyone- people from the left and right, people who are of all races, and people who disagree about the original incident, all seem to agree that what the police in Ferguson are doing to protesters and what outside leaders are doing to stir the pot are equally awful and illegitimate in a free and democratic society of equals.
One sees leftwing and rightwing blogs, as well as social media commentary all saying the same thing- the spectacle of a military-styled police force is detestable on the streets of ANY American neighborhood. It could be that if there are true agitators on the left and the right, neither side will get what they want, greater control over the voting power of a bloc of people. It could be, at the end of the day, when the dust has settled on Ferguson, that the real winners might be the Americans, of all ethnicities and beliefs, who decide to no longer be led by the helicopter-swooping, Lear-jet parking leaders. Rather, they will choose to lead themselves where they are, neighborhood by neighborhood, block by block, town by town, to build pathways to prosperity, security, and liberty.
In Ferguson, it appears, there are no heroes. One can only hope that from such flames, a new resolve is forged in America, to build, where you are, with those who will build with you, what most of us really want, across all divides, the freedom to prosper and pass along to our children a better world than the one we were given.
Let us hope at the end of the day, be they Republicans or Democrats, that we do not say the only winners from Ferguson were ‘them politicians’’.
The Obama Bush- Perfect symbol of the reality today?
Mr. Bill Collier- Fans of comedian and actor Robin Williams were shocked to learn of the actor’s death of suspected suicide by asphyxia.
The actor has starred in countless movies but his big break came portraying that lovable alien “Mork” on the Mork and Mindy Show. Williams battled “severe depression of late” according to his wife and yet was often heard trying to encourage people to just be themselves and have a positive outlook. This role as the nation’s “encourager” was sealed during his appearance as “Patch Adams” in the movie of the same name.
In his latest project, “The Crazy Ones”, Williams played a man named Zach Cropper, a rather zany copywriter working for an ad agency which is run by Simon and his daughter, Sydney.
William’s passing was announced over major media who broke into normal programming to share the news. The official press release follows:
August 11, 2014, at approximately 11:55 a.m, Marin County Communications received a 9-1-1 telephone call reporting a male adult had been located unconscious and not breathing inside his residence in unincorporated Tiburon, CA. The Sheriff’s Office, as well as the Tiburon Fire Department and Southern Marin Fire Protection District were dispatched to the incident with emergency personnel arriving on scene at12:00 pm. The male subject, pronounced deceased at 12:02 pm has been identified as Robin McLaurin Williams, a 63 year old resident of unincorporated Tiburon, CA.
An investigation into the cause, manner, and circumstances of the death is currently underway by the Investigations and Coroner Divisions of the Sheriff’s Office. Preliminary information developed during the investigation indicates Mr. Williams was last seen alive at his residence, where he resides with his wife, at approximately 10:00pm on August 10, 2014. Mr. Williams was located this morning shortly before the 9-1-1 call was placed to Marin County Communications. At this time, the Sheriff’s Office Coroner Division suspects the death to be a suicide due to asphyxia, but a comprehensive investigation must be completed before a final determination is made. A forensic examination is currently scheduled for August 12, 2014 with subsequent toxicology testing to be conducted.
We offer our condolences to and prayers for his family and friends as well as his fans.
William R Collier Jr- The CDC, in what amounts to a reversal of its earlier claims, is now saying that it is inevitable that Ebola will make it to these shores. What is more, the CDC said “the outreak will not be that large.” (more…)
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