WORLD NEWS FLASH- According to open press reports, and with confirmations from our own sources in DC, the US is preparing to take military action against the Syrian regime. This move is blessed, quietly, by Arab powers who are not appreciative of Russian warnings to the West against such actions.
UPDATE AUGUST 26: In a surprise move that was not surprising to us, because we had intelligence on Arab opposition to Russia’s Syria policy, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that “we are not going to go to war” over any Western military intervention in Syria.
Strikes by sub-launched and stealth assets would include precision cruise missiles as well as electronic and cyber warfare being directed again regime forces that control WMDs. On the ground operators may also be utilized, though what kind and what extend we cannot discern at this time.
While the Russians are opposing this move, they are on the “wrong side” of this issue as far as most of the Arab powers are concerned. One source informed us “Russia’s coziness with Iran and Assad is straining their relations with many Arab powers”, including even Egypt. The newly emergent consensus is, “Arab powers have enough wealth and influence to stop bouncing back between alliances with Moscow or Washington, they can stand on their own.”
Counter moves by Iran are considered a low level possibility, but they could involve acts of terror or the mobilization of Hezbollah and Hamas in a proxy action against Israel.
The only thing that still needs to happen is that the President needs to give the order, which he has hesitated to give. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime could open the door to the general collapse of Syria and allow Al Qaeda to get their hands on weapons of mass destruction. It is reported that some of these proposed strikes are aimed at preventing that from happening. No doubt the President is fully aware that “fixing” the problem of Syrian use of chemical weapons on civilians may in fact open the door to more complicated and equally deadly problems.
If Assad falls suddenly the likelihood of a general civil war between multiple opponents is fairly high, however there is a distinct possibility of a general mobilization of Arab armies to occupy the nation as peacekeepers, and wage war on the ultra-Salafist forces in that nation.
At this hour President Obama is weighing all these tangled possibilities and has a very tough choice to make.