Headline News

Ground War In Gaza

W R Collier Jr July 17, 2014

At 10:30PM local IDF forces began an operations in three sectors in Gaza which, if successful, would divide Gaza into 4 manageable slices, bypassing the populated areas for now, in what is described as a “limited operation” against “Hamas tunnels.”

The operation is as we had predicted it, a limited operation aimed at isolating the populated regions and disrupting Hamas’ operations and communications. It is unlikely that the IDF will want to roll tanks into populated areas and it remains to be seen whether Hamas’ much vaunted “increased capability” against Israeli armor will materialize. The rockets from Gaza has apparently stopped during this operation.

Coincident with the Israeli government’s announcement of this operation, the Egyptian government announced “the possibility for hundreds of civilian deaths in Gaza” must be blamed on Hamas for being unwilling to agree to any truce, which the Arab powers have brokered and which Israel had agreed to. The Egyptian Government has diplomatic relations with Israel and has been actively brokering peace between Arab Palestinians and the State of Israel.

On July 14th Avignor Leiberman, Israel’s Foreign Minister, reportedly told the Norwegian Foreign Minister that a truce fire agreement set to occur on July14th did not happen “because Qatar and Turkey” urged Hamas not to consider the deal. Hamas had denied that they had been consulted, a fact denied by the Egyptians and the Israelis. However, while the Qataris and the Turks have consulted, there is no evidence that the Qataris urged Hamas to reject any deals.

Some are saying that the IDF is crossing the border “at all points” in order to find tunnels, while forces are only moving further into Hamas territory in less populated areas. We are working to connect with people on both sides to get more detailed information.

We had issued a War Warning for the area. That Warning has materialized. We are issuing a War Report- war has broken out on the ground on a limited basis between Israel and Hamas.

A low probability War Warning remains in effect for the region. War Warning General War, Israel Versus Hamas and Hezbollah- there is a low but credible probability that Hezbollah, operating from Lebanon and Syria, will launch rocket and other artillery attacks against Israel which could prompt air attacks and limited ground attacks aimed at securing their population from such threats. The danger of a more general war is extremely low at this time as Egypt is embroiled in its own political instability thanks to the Muslim Brotherhood and Syria is militarily weak. However there are remote possibilities that the factions in Syria and Egypt agree to unite and push for some sort of military response.

For Arabs, this invasion elicits rage as they consider the Arab civilians which must necessarily suffer as a result of this, but this does not mean they “side” with Hamas. Hamas is viewed as a destabilizing influence and a “bad actor”, their “antics” undermining Arab efforts to create a Palestinian State with international recognition. As long as Hamas is in power, many Arabs have confided to me, the case for a Palestinian State is weakened.

If Israel can quickly eliminate Hamas and if Fatah can regain control over Gaza this can de-escalate and a pathway for peace may be possible. But if Israel’s invasion is in depth, takes a long time, and creates civilian casualties many Arab leaders will find it politically untenable to do anything but defy Israel and possibly even push some into real or covert conflict with the State of Israel.

Currently the battle appears, from a distance, to be rather one-sided but if Israeli forces are not entering heavily populated areas Hamas will not deploy their alleged “new” anti-tank capability. Their aim is to lure the IDF into populated areas where close combat is necessary and where air support is impossible.

Meanwhile, Israel has indicted three unnamed young men (names not released) for the murder of a an Arab Palestinian youth in apparent retaliation for the murder of three Israeli youths, the murder of which indirectly sparked this round of conflict. Immediately after the discovery of the murdered teens, Prime Minister Netanyahu accused Hamas of murdering them. Hamas responded by beginning a rocket assault against Israel, which has gone on for 9 days.

There have been no arrests in the case of the three murdered Israeli teens. It has not been established that Arabs, let alone Hamas members, were responsible, although Hamas has since declared that “every Israeli, everywhere” is “a legitimate target”.

Civilian Airliner Feared Shot Down Over Ukraine By Russian Separatists

W R Collier Jr July 17, 2014

WORLD NEWS
Bill Collier

UPDATE 5:40PM EDT July 17- US officials have told Fox News that the missile that struck the civilian airliner was either an SA-11 (the missile described in this article) or an SA-20 (also not this missile). The SA-11 was known to be possessed by the separatist militias, however it was not certain that it was operational. If it was the SA-20 the missile was “definitely” fired from Russia.

UPDATE: President Obama comments on Flight MH17

Here is the extent of his statement:
“It is wonderful to be back in Delaware. Before I begin, uh, obviously the world is watching reports of a downed passenger jet near the Russia-Ukraine Border…and it looks like…it may be a terrible tragedy..uh….right now we’re working to determine whether or not there were American citizens on board. That is our first priority. And I have directed my national security team to stay in close contact with the Ukrainian government. The United States will offer any assistance we can to help determine what happened and why. And, as a country, our thoughts and prayers are with all the families and the passengers wherever they call home. I want to thank Jeremy for that introduction…..”

President Obama spoke for less than one minute at his press conference in Delaware before resuming the pre-planned speech in support of the democrats of Delaware. President Obama referred to the Malaysian plane as a ‘downed passenger jet’, suggesting the Administration is accepting the premise that the plane was shot down and did not simply crash.

When the President stated that the ‘United States will offer any assistance….to help determine what happened and why”, this appears to answer a direct plea by the Ukrainians to investigate this crash and other Military transport crashes.

Perhaps the most telling part of his brief comment was in how he referred to keeping in touch with the Ukrainian government but gave no mention to Vladimir Putin, despite the fact that Obama heard about the ‘crash’ from Putin first.

US Intelligence sources have confirmed to various news agencies that the plane was indeed shot down by the BUK missile, however there are reports that they do not agree as to whether it was fired from the Ukrainian or the Russian side of the border. This likely indicates that the firing source was very close to the border.

UPDATE: Unconfirmed reports from Reuters states that 23 Americans were on board the downed airliner.

Possibly TWO aircraft, a civilian jetliner and a Ukrainian military aircraft, have been shot down on July 17th by pro-Russian separatists, according to claims by those (who claim that two aircraft were shot down). 295 souls were on the civilian aircraft, the military transport could carry over 100 troops. We have not confirmed that a second aircraft has been shot down.

Russia’s “Interfax” news agency says that a Malaysian Jet Liner was “shot down at altitude” over the skies of the Ukraine (at 33,000 feet) and crashed in the Ukraine. The alleged shoot down occured just as the aircraft entered into north western Ukraine from Polish air space or just as it was about to leave the Ukraine in the south eastern “Donbas” region, which is experiencing a pro-Russian anti-Ukrainian insurrection.

Flight Aware, which tracks airline flights on a map, shows a loss of signal just as the aircraft entered Ukrainian air space from Poland. The crash site, videotaped by Ukrainian activists in the Donbas region, is in the east.

This has now been confirmed but the Malaysian air 777 did crash and video of the crash site, with a large pillar of black smoke, has been aired. The flight, flight MH17, was en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The Malaysian Defense Ministry has announced an “investigation” into this incident as a possible shoot-down.

It is considered entirely possible that the Russians have shot this plane down and will blame the Ukrainians in order to use this as a pretense for the feared Russian invasion of the Ukraine. It may have been shot down, if it was, by Pro-Russian militias in the Ukraine, who have shot down aircraft, including a Ukrainian military transport. The Ukrainian military could also have misidentified the aircraft and shot it down or it could have shot it down in order to blame the Russians as a pretext for getting world support against Russia.

That this flight was routed to this region is itself highly unusual. Most international flights are avoiding this region and the airliner would not have had to be diverted very far to avoid Ukrainian air space altogether. This writer’s flight was diverted away from Iraqi air space after it was learned that ISIL fighters had US Stinger anti-air missiles. So this flight path was not at all expected or normal under the circumstances.

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported that the Buk-M1-2 anti-air missile brought down the aircraft. An AP Reporter in the region had reported days ago seeing a Russian supplied anti-air missile system in pro-Russian militant hands. Again, this has not been confirmed.

The fact that such an expensive system, capable of shooting down aircraft at 75,000 feet, was apparently given to pro-Russian militias in the eastern Ukraine is a major and unsettling development. Its range is reported to be 20 miles, however it has been reported that an upgraded version of the missile can reach 60 miles. It is doubtful that the system allegedly given to the pro-Russian militias, which first appeared in 1979, is the upgraded system.

If a pro-Russian militia group fired this weapon, it may have believed it was shooting at a Ukrainian transport aircraft, which might have a similar signature on their radar. The weapon uses the launcher’s radar to acquire is target.

In the past few days two Ukrainian aircraft had been shot down by this missile which was launched from Russian territory into Ukrainian air space, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, including both a Ukrainian Transport and a Ukrainian jet fighter.

Regarding the earlier incidents from the past few days, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk called for an international investigation of the three plane crashsd that took place over Donbas since July 14.

“Government calls for a large-scale international investigation into the downing on July 14 in the Luhansk region of the AN-26 Armed Forces of Ukraine on July 16, in the Donetsk region of SU-25 aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the crash of Malaysian Boeing 777, with the participation of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and European Organisation for the safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL),” Yatseniuk said in a statement.

The Kyiv Post reported: Ukraine’s government confirmed that a Malaysia Airlines passenger airline crashed in the east of the country, close to Russian border. 280 passengers and 15 crew members have been killed, according to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry spokesman Anton Gerashchenko.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian Defense Ministry stated that they are not involved in the incident whatsoever. Pro-Russian militia announced today, at the same time that this flight was shot down, that they had shot down a Ukrainian transport aircraft and have warned the Ukrainians not to enter “their” air space, a threat they had already backed up by shooting down Ukrainian aircraft.

According to the Kyiv Post:
Two Ukrainian Air Force aircraft were shot down in the east of the Donetsk region on July 17 evening, said Ihor Druz, an advisor to the defense minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).

Since then, however, this same group has denied that it has any systems capable of firing at above 10,000 feet. This despite the AP report of seeing the Buk missile in this group’s possession and this despite shoot-downs which allegedly took place at above 10,000 feet.

It begins to appear that pro-Russian militia shot down this aircraft with Russian supplied sophisticated anti-air missiles. This is a serious escalation, as noted, and could lead to “outright war” between Russia and the Ukraine. This could also mean that yet another Ukrainian transport, an An-26, was shot down at the same time and seems to dispel the notion that this aircraft might have been accidentally shot down.

It is anticipated that Ukraine will mobilize all of its reserves soon and prepare a general surge of its forces into the break-away regions, a surge held back by hopes of a diplomatic solution with Russia and the separatists. It is doubtful the Ukrainians will hold off any further which could lead to Russian forces entering the region

The Ukraine is supposed to have an iron clad agreement with Russia, Britain, and the US to guarantee its sovereignty which was made as a condition of giving up its nuclear arsenal. This agreement has yet to be honored since the seizure by Russia of the Crimea and the incursion of Russian forces (along with the provisioning of Russian arms to pro-Russian militias) in eastern Ukraine.

US Naval ships are reported to have tracked this flight and would be able to determine exactly what happened. However, the US has remained silent on this issue so far. The Kremlin has also refrained from commenting. At around the time of the shoot-down, President’s Obama and Putin happened to be meeting. During this meeting, Putin informed Obama of the “crash.”

The following is a transcript released by the Ukrainian Government of an alleged coversation between two men, one a Russian nation in the break-away region in southeastern Ukraine and allegedly a Russian military officer.

Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).Vasili Geranin: Pilots. Where are the pilots?
IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. Its smoking.
VG: How many minutes ago?
IB: About 30 minutes ago.
SBU comment: After examining the site of the plane the terrorists come to the conclusion that they have shot down a civilian plane. The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.
“Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.
“Grek”: Yes, Major.
“Major”: The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200”. A Civilian.
“Greek”: Well, what do you have there?
“Major”: In short, it was 100 percent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.“Greek”: Are many people there?
“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).
“Greek”: What kind of aircraft?
“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.
“Greek”: Is there anything left of the weapon?“
Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.
“Greek”: Are there documents?
“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson.
Militant: Regarding the plane shot down in the area of Snizhne-Torez. It’s a civilian one. Fell down near Grabove. There are lots of corpses of women and children. The Cossacks are out there looking at all this.They say on TV it’s AN-26 transport plane, but they say it’s written Malaysia Airlines on the plane. What was it doing on Ukraine’s territory?
Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f…cking flying. There is a war going on.

Paul Gordon Collier contributed to parts of this report.

Chinese Naval Base In The Mediterranean Sea?

W R Collier Jr July 17, 2014

WORLD NEWS
Bill Collier

During the Cold War, the United States did its best to make the Mediterranean unfriendly for the Soviet Navy. Their ships were closely monitored and towards the end of the Cold War a lone Victor Class submarine was the only credible naval presence maintained, aside from a few obsolete frigates generally docked in a Syrian port. When other forces outside this small package were deployed it was a big deal.

Today however, a NATO ally, Greece, is considering hosting a Chinese Naval base smack dab in the middle of the eastern Mediterranean. What the Chinese might dock there has not been disclosed, but it could be more robust than the normal Soviet deployments.

According to a recent report, the Prime Minister of Greece said that Crete could serve as a regional node for the support, maintenance and repair of the Chinese Navy and the possibility exists for joint naval operations between Greece and China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy. (The “Navy” is a subordinate arm under the PLA.) The Greek Prime Minister was reported to have told this to the visiting Chinese president on Rhodes on July 13th (Sunday).

“On Crete there is all the appropriate infrastructure for refueling, maintenance and repairs for all your country’s navy units. There is a possibility of cooperation, for example, in joint patrols of war ships. And another example, in the area of fighting piracy, where the interests of our two peoples coincide,” Antonis Samaras told Xi Jinping, China’s Premiere and communist dictator.

This cozying up to the Chinese by the cash-strapped Greeks has been largely ignored by the US and NATO, but observers note that this development is most unwelcome among military professionals. It places potentially hostile forces on Crete, an island which also hosts a NATO naval base at Souda Bay, right in the middle of a most strategic region.

But the Greeks, who are no doubt receiving money from the Chinese for such a deal, envision even closer cooperation with the Chinese communist regime.

Samaras, the Greek Prime Minister said, “I also want to say that I believe deeply in our relations of strategic partnership that will constantly expand, as your country’s presence at the forefront of the international stage also grows.” Such a statement of intent could be interpreted by some to call into question Greece’s commitment to NATO and is seen as evidence that China evinces a policy of intervention in European geopolitics.

The Greek Prime Minister and the Chinese leader met at the Palace of the Grand Master of the Knights of Rhodes.

The Chinese leader noted that his country is keen to build its relations with Greece, saying,“We want to make joint efforts, with the Greek side, to launch a new era in our bilateral relations in terms of the overall strategic partnership relations of Greece and China. Greece and China have a natural friendship and there are naturally very close feelings between them. We can say that Greece is the friendliest and most reliable country in Europe for China.”

This statement, praising Greece as the most friendly and reliable country in Europe for China, has more than a few eyebrows raised among military professionals from NATO countries. The truth is that Chinese and NATO interests diverge, in general, and for Greece to court the Chinese may in jeopardize its standing in NATO, according to sources we have contacted.

The move towards China may be a reaction to the “bad deal” some Greeks believe they have received at the hand of the European Union and could lead to a cash infusion in the short term but dependence on China, a hostile power as far as most rank and file NATO officers might see it, in the long term.

HISTORICAL NOTE:
The relation of Western Europe to Greece has been rocky since the days of the Byzantium Empire when, in 1204, a crusader army sacked the city of Constantinople on their way to fight in Jerusalem. The Byzantine Empire, however, had good relations with China, being the trade point between China and Western Europe.

ADDENDUM:
During this same period of time, the Greek Prime Minister has also had a phone conference with US Vice President Biden and today has met with Germany’s Prime Minister, Angela Merkel in Brussels.

AND ON THIS DAY:
Ironically, on the very day of this post, July 17th, the following happened:

On this day (July 17th) in 1204AD, the 4th Crusade breached the walls of Constantinople. Emperor Alexios III tried to rally the troops, but his courage failed him and he abandoned the City.

“Their first attempts were repulsed, but on 17 July, with four divisions attacking the land walls while the Venetian fleet attacked the sea walls from the Golden Horn, the Venetians took a section of the wall of about 25 towers, while the Varangian guard held off the Crusaders on the land wall. The Varangians shifted to meet the new threat, and the Venetians retreated under the screen of fire. The fire destroyed about 120 acres (0.49 km2) of the city and left some 20,000 people homeless.

“Alexios III finally took offensive action, leading 17 divisions from the St. Romanus Gate, vastly outnumbering the crusaders. Alexios III’s army of about 8,500 men faced the Crusaders’ seven divisions (about 3,500 men), but his courage failed, and the Byzantine army returned to the city without a fight. The unforced retreat and the effects of the fire greatly damaged morale, and the disgraced Alexios III abandoned his subjects, slipping out of the city and fleeing to Mosynopolis in Thrace. The Imperial officials quickly deposed their runaway emperor and restored Isaac II, robbing the crusaders of the pretext for attack. The crusaders were now in the quandary of having achieved their stated aim while being debarred from the actual objective, namely the reward that the younger Alexios had (unbeknownst to the Byzantines) promised them. The crusaders insisted that they would only recognize the authority of Isaac II if his son was raised to co-emperor, and on 1 August the latter was crowned as Alexios Angelos IV, co-emperor.”
More at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Crusade#Siege_of_July_1203

We wanted to add this commentary from an American Greek, Dimitri Bozikis, who had some provocative insights and counter-views to our report:

First- The Greeks’ European ‘Allies’ have betrayed them on multiple occasions and in multiple ways. So the Greeks would be wise to diversify their list of ‘friends’. The Vatican and Britain in particular seem to have made an Art of throwing Eastern Christians to the mercy of the Islamic hoards.

Second- The Greek Byzantines traded with China long before Marco Polo was born. The Chinese called the Silk Road the Horse Road because they coveted Greek horses above all others. And, contrary to the other European cultures the Chinese encountered later, the Greeks never colonized, exploited nor subjugated the Chinese. That is why they have a special ancient friendship. The Chinese see the Greeks as civilized equals and founders of their respected civilizations.

Third- You might want to look at Turkey’s joint air maneuvers with the Chinese a year or two ago. They are NATO allies also, aren’t they? Didn’t the Turks also announce they were going to purchase weapon systems from the Chinese instead of the US made Patriot System?

Finally- The Greeks didn’t make these overtures to China unilaterally. They are fully aware of their obligations to both the EU and NATO. They made then with the blessing of Brussels, Tel Aviv and Washington, from the Palace of the Grand Master of the Knights of Rhodes. THAT, my friend,should be the topic of your next article. Best, D

GAZA- Short Lived Cease Fire Broken

W R Collier Jr July 17, 2014

WORLD NEWS
Bill Collier

A 5-hour “humanitarian cease fire” had been agreed to between Israel and Hamas in order for Gazans to stock up on needed supplies and bring aid supplies into Gaza from Israel. Three rockets were fired, however, ending the scheduled six hour cease fire.

Earlier reports by the BBC that a comprehensive cease fire was expected to take place as of 6AM (local) Friday were strongly denied by both Israel and Hamas. At present Hamas and Israel do not talk directly, but the Egyptian Government, which has relations with both parties, is hosting teams from Israel and Gaza who are housed in the same hotel in Cairo, but in different rooms. The Egyptian negotiators are going back and forth between the rooms, sharing proposals and counter proposals.

In response to Hamas firing three rockets at Beersheba, Israel warplanes were seen attacking targets in Gaza, although further attacks by either side have not materialized.

The truce’s end could very well be a prelude to a “ground invasion” with Israeli forces first driving armored wedges between the various towns and Gaza city to divide the Gaza strip into 3-4 manageable slices and then send in infantry to occupy cities after locating and destroying armed Hamas and other units.

We have been warning that Hamas believe they have the means of inflicting serious casualties on ground forces, including enemy armor, and that their objective is to lure Israel in to a ground fight. Whether or not Hamas is correct remains to be seen, it is possible that they are deceiving themselves and would be humbled by a ground invasion.

Israeli Killed by Mortar Fire Ending Truce Before It Begins

W R Collier Jr July 15, 2014

Bill Collier

An Israeli man bringing food to IDF soldiers at the Erez Crossing into Gaza was killed just as an Egyptian brokered cease fire was set to go into effect.

The ceasefire, while it was accepted by the Israeli Cabinet, was rejected by Hamas after it was set to take hold. Hamas stated that they had received no communication from the Egyptians although our sources reveal that Egyptian officials went to great lengths to deliver the text to Hamas. The Egyptians, for their part, were under the assumption that Hamas had agreed to the terms.

The death of an Israeli civilian may indeed ratchet up the conflict, which we warned about in a previous post, but Arabs argue that he was killed in the vicinity of a “legitimate military target”, a nuance lost on the Israeli public who are reacting with outrage. Indeed, the acceptance by Jerusalem of the cease fire offer was the cause of angry denunciations by some Israelis who feel that Netanyahu is “all talk and no walk.” They also believe his measures are “halting and indecisive.”

Israeli military sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, say that, as one put it, “while the IDF are prepared to launch any kind of needed counter-measure, including a ground invasion, there have been no tactical, let alone strategic, objectives approved by the Cabinet.”

We have assessed that Hamas believes it has what it takes to offer unexpected resistance in a local order street battle. Our sources tell us Hamas is actually hoping for an Israeli ground invasion to prove the Israeli military is ‘beatable.’ The recent foray of Israeli special forces into Gaza was not met with that resistance, “because we do not want to waste this on a few enemy, we want to see large numbers of enemy come in to our reach”, as one Hamas operative is reported to have said.

Many Arab Palestinians ado not wish to be caught in the middle of this fight and, despite Hamas pleading with them to stay, hundreds and thousands are fleeing from the expected combat zones.

Stay tuned here for insights and more behind the scenes intelligence on this conflict.

Russian Intervention In Ukraine Looms

W R Collier Jr February 28, 2014

William R Collier Jr
UPDATE FEB 28, 2014
There are now reports that Russian military, around 300 special forces troops in one instance, had seized control over Ukrainian airports in the Crimea and are surrounding Urkaine border control units in an apparent bid to seize the vital peninsula from the Ukraine. Some reports have come in stating that Ukraining units have retaken the airports, without incident, this as the ousted Ukraine President holds a defiant press confererence from inside Russia and in the Russian language.

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The New Obama Economy

W R Collier Jr August 2, 2013

Obamanomics

Bill Collier

The new (Obama) economy is a combination of a shrinking workforce, a higher than ever proportion of part-time to full-time jobs, and lower wages with real wealth shrinking for most Americans for the first time in American history. It is not just that wealth is being transferred from targeted groups not supportive of the Administration to their supporters, although this is happening, but it is also a matter of real shrinking wealth as lower wages, fewer full time jobs, rising health care costs, and the rising cost of regulations are eating into people’s pockets, and their savings.

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US Scolds Protestors Against Egypt’s Islamist Regime

W R Collier Jr June 22, 2013

US Ambassador Anne Patterson to Egyptian Protestors: “Some say that street action will produce better results than elections. To be honest, my government and I are deeply sceptical. We oppose chaos. Chaos is a breeding ground for instability.”

How does that statement line up with their treatment of protestors of the Mubarik regime?

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