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JOBS REPORT- UNEMPLOYMENT

 RATE SKEWED

WASHINGTON- Paul Collier

The September Jobs Report by the BLS shows one encouraging number that highlights many more discouraging ones-

The Unemploymment Rate was brought down by a surge in Government hiring, Obamacare-induced jobs growth in healthcare, and continued part time downsizing which reflects in the report as continued employment, but fails to reflect the  significant reductions in incomes for american families-

Forced Part Time Employment jumps 600K to 8.6 million- This is what the real headline of the jobrs report released this past Thursday by the BLS should read.  While the overall unemployment numbers are down, from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent, the number of people forced to work part time due to economic downsizing or not being able to find a full-time job jumped a whopping 7.5.

Other telling statistics from the Jobs Report –

Government Padding-

55% of the 114K jobs created were from the government sector.  This contrasted with the rising deficits at the Federal, State, and Local levels paints for a picture of looming economic uncertainty for those recently hired by the governments that are failing to pay their existing bills.

Healthcare Jobs boost numbers

The report shows that 38.5% of the jobs created from July to September were in the Healthcare sector.

If you combine the growth in the healthcare sector, mostly precipitated by the layers of administration created by the emerging Obamacare law, and government-created jobs, the bulk of this job growth overwhelmingly comes directly or indirectly from government, 93.5%.

While government jobs are increasing and Obamacare jobs are increasing, the real backbone of the American economy, manufacturing, showed a loss of 16K jobs.

These numbers, if they are taken at face value, will portray a false picture of American economic health.  The real story is that full time employment is being replaced with part time employment, jobs are being artificially created by the printing of money and bonds, government patronage, and finally the manufacturing sector continues to decline.

 

UPDATE- ABC News was anticipating numbers not favorable to the September Jobs Report, so they released this article which now can be cited to make the same claim for a jobs report that favors Obama-

from- http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/10/sept-jobs-report-could-it-be-wrong/

This morning’s Labor Department September employment survey has the power to move markets and impact the presidential race. But says economist Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis: “It is a mistake to place too much emphasis on any one month’s number.” The number can bounce around a great deal and is often subject to major revisions. “The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that the standard error of forecasting monthly changes of employment is 100,000.” The estimate of how many workers found a job last month is far from being an exact count….

Note the standard error of forecasting- 100K- that means we could see a revised report that could show the September Unemployment Rate was well above 8 percent, not below the magic 8 number the Obama team will be pushing out in the weeks to come.

UPDATE-

Here is further clarification of the effect of the spike in Part Time Work-

from http://www.businessinsider.com/the-september-jobs-report-was-bad-2012-10

 

The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want  full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed  unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and  state of the American labor market.
Read more: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/10/the-sickly-stagnant-september-jobs-report/#ixzz28TINym5j

 

UPDATE-

While the Unemployment Rate is being reported as going down significantly from 8.1% to 7.8%, there’s this little inconsistency which has economic experts scratching their heads- the rate of added jobs for the month of September 2012 is LESS than the rate of added jobs for September 2011, when the unemployment rate was 9.1%-

from http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/05/jobless-rate-falls-to-78-percent-in-september/

The revisions also show employers added 146,000 jobs per month from July through  September, up from 67,000 in the previous three months. Still, the 2012 average  of 146,000 jobs per month remains lower than last year’s average of 153,000 jobs  per month.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/05/jobless-rate-falls-to-78-percent-in-september/#ixzz28TNVWCOc

Below are some excerpts from the Jobs report, followed by the complete jobs report for our readers to analyse for themselves-

 

 

 

 

from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

Health care added 44,000 jobs in September. Job gains continued in ambulatory health care services (+30,000) and hospitals (+8,000). Over the past year, employment in health care has risen by 295,000.

 

Manufacturing employment edged down in September (-16,000). On net, manufacturing employment has been unchanged since April. In September, job losses occurred in computer and electronic products (-6,000) and in printing and related activities (-3,000).

 

 

 

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

 

 

from http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/260531-government-finally-adding-jobs-after-years-of-losses

Federal, local and state governments added 10,000 jobs in September, and revisions in July and August showed an addition of 63,000 total government jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.

Read the full Unemployment Report for yourself:

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed                   USDL-12-1981
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 5, 2012

Technical information:
 Household data:       (202) 691-6378  *  cpsinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/cps
 Establishment data:   (202) 691-6555  *  cesinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact:         (202) 691-5902  *  PressOffice@bls.gov

                    THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2012

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm 
payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 
today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing 
but changed little in most other major industries.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September. 
For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1 
and 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by 
456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent), 
adult women (7.0 percent), and whites (7.0 percent) declined over the month. 
The unemployment rates for teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (13.4 percent), and 
Hispanics (9.9 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians, at 
4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), fell over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, 
and A-3.)

In September, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs 
decreased by 468,000 to 6.5 million. (See table A-11.)

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000 over 
the month to 2.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 
27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1 
percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little 
change. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to 
58.7 percent, after edging down in the prior 2 months. The overall trend in 
the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat. The civilian labor 
force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September, while the labor force 
participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes 
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August 
to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because 
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time 
job. (See table A-8.)

In September, 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, 
essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally 
adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were 
available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. 
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work 
in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 802,000 discouraged workers in 
September, a decline of 235,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not 
seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking 
for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 
1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had 
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such 
as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in September. In 2012, 
employment growth has averaged 146,000 per month, compared with an average 
monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. In September, employment rose in health care 
and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Health care added 44,000 jobs in September. Job gains continued in ambulatory 
health care services (+30,000) and hospitals (+8,000). Over the past year, 
employment in health care has risen by 295,000.

In September, employment increased by 17,000 in transportation and warehousing. 
Within the industry, there were job gains in transit and ground passenger 
transportation (+9,000) and in warehousing and storage (+4,000).

Employment in financial activities edged up in September (+13,000), reflecting 
modest job growth in credit intermediation (+6,000) and real estate (+7,000).

Manufacturing employment edged down in September (-16,000). On net, manufacturing 
employment has been unchanged since April. In September, job losses occurred 
in computer and electronic products (-6,000) and in printing and related 
activities (-3,000).

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, 
wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services, 
leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 
0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in September. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 
0.1 hour to 40.6 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours. 
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private 
nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm 
payrolls rose by 7 cents to $23.58. Over the past 12 months, average hourly 
earnings have risen by 1.8 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of 
private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents 
to $19.81. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from 
+141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to 
+142,000.

____________
The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on
Friday, November 2, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).