UPDATED – SCROLL DOWN FOR LATEST
4:53 PM- Turnout for the Vote is upwards to 90% in many locales, an historic, all-time high! While many gaming and betting sites are betting that the NO vote stands a 70% chance of winning, doubts have been raised about the veracity of the polling behind those estimates.
5:00 PM- POLLS HAVE CLOSED- it is now 10 PM in Scotland and polls are closed in this historic vote.
5:15 PM- YES supporters sounding less confident and NO supporters sounding more confident as votes are being counted. But after the vote, Scotland will be a nation divided and how will the rift be healed. Rumors are circulating of British Ministers in London breathing a sigh of relief.
5:31 PM NO vote supporters- “Wouldn’t be surprised if there is a 10-point spread for the NO vote.” But the problem is, that “DEVOMAX” is favored by a vast majority of the Scots, and DEVOMAX is virtually independnce in all but name with a vastly reduced role for Westminster in Scottish affairs. This cry “DEVOMAX” could become a rallying cry for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland as well and would substantially changed the very nature of the UK. Indeed’ “DEVOMAX” could beome a rallying cry for American States who are tired of the concentration of powers in the hands of 545 key leaders in DC over the lives of 310 million Americans.
5:42 PM – YOUGOV Poll of voters- 54-46 in favor of NO, poling of people who have actually voted. YOUGOV president- “there is a 99% chance that the NO vote will win.”
5:45 PM OPINION by Bill Collier
DEVOMAX for Pennsylvania- Pennsylvania needs a state referendum instructing all of its representatives in DC to pursue MAXIMUM devolution of powers from the Federal Government to the Counties in our State and to the State itself.
How might this look?
Tax rates would not change, but as Counties and the State took on more powers taxes would shift to them instead of the Federal Government. Counties would be reformed into something most closely resembling a caucus-based consensual democracy or a broader republican system with a Council of at least 10 delegates, or one delegate per municipality and township, and a chief executive elected at large.
True self-government would devolve to the PEOPLE at the very local level and the state level and the Federal power would retain 30% of its current authority/functions.
This does not mean we would lower taxes or decrease services, and provision would have to be made to help very poor areas who cannot manage on their own, with the goal of helping them achieve self-reliance and self-governance.
This is the kind of thing that is coming to the UK, no matter how this vote ends, and this is what the world needs, in every major nation- less centralization which leads to bureaucracy, abuse, corruption, and squelching of inventive/creative innovations.
DEVOMAX for the UK, for America, for Canada, for Germany, for France, for every
8 PM- Voter fraud allegations in Glasgow, 10 ballots turned over to the police for investigation- hardly any reason to consider this widespread. Massive voter turnout in Scotland could upset polling calculations as polling models do depend on predicting voter turnout by region and demographic.
8:29 PM Clackmananshire NO wins 53.8% to 46.2% This on the low side of results predicted by polls for YES. This counts for less than 1% of the Scottish vote.
8:50 PM Turnout in Glasgow was 75%, which is not good for the YES vote because Glasgow is expected to swing towards YES.
9:02 PM- 67.2% NO, 32.8% YES. This is no surprise as these islands are both a Liberal Democrat stronghold and many locals identify more with Scandinavia than Scotland.
9:10 PM Dundee turnout is 78.8%, which is bad for the YES vote because Dundee is expected to win there handily. A fire alarm, which cleared the counting station, disrupted county. YES voters are looking for a 55-45 margin in favor of Independence.
9:18 PM English votes on English issues- an English Parliament is coming, a massive devolution of the British central government is coming come what may. This WILL catch fire across the pond as the phrase “devomax”, maximum devolution of central/federal powers to the States in America, becomes the new buzz word.
9:24 PM OPINION- Soon you’ll be hearing a new term in America, borrowed from the Scots and now the English- DEVOMAX! This involves a fundamental shift of political powers to the States and Counties/Parishes. This is not even about liberal or conservative policies, but, as BOTH sides in the Scottish referendum have said, “who shall decide for our nation (state), us or Westminster (DC)?”
9:42 PM Shetland’s vote in- 63.7% NO to 36.3%, but this is also in a Council area that was expected to go sharply for the NO camp.
10:02 PM – Comhairle nan Eilean Siar (Western Isles)- 53.4% to 46.6% for NO. This was expected to be reversed and is a very bad sign for the YES vote.
10:25 PM- the real question is not whether or not Scotland will vote for independence, promises of devomax have clearly swayed the vote in favor of the NO camp, the real question is will England itself have its own parliament. The general idea is to give Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland maximum powers but to only give maximum local powers in England to regional government, instead of a purely English entity. This would mean that the BIGGEST nation in the UK would have no “national government”, it would be divided into regions which would be dealt with individually by the British Parliament. But will the English buy that or will they be demanding their own national government for ALL of England?
10:34 PM 50.1% NO to 49.9% YES- this is a surprise as the YES vote was expected to fail by a large margin. This brings the overall total to 45% YES versus 55% NO.
10:55 PM- YES 57.3% to 42.7% NO. This result gives YES better results than any opinion poll tracked. TOTAL vote is YES 49.1% to NO 50.9%
11:08 PM – West Dunbartonshire- 54% YES 46% NO. Overall 49.8% to 50.2%.
11:11 PM Midlothian 56.3% to 43.7%. Generally a slight setback for the YES side, but they were projected to lose here. Overall 50.95% NO to 49.05% YES.
11:18 PM East Lothian NO 61.7% to 38.3% with Stirling 59.8% NO to 40.2% YES. Overall- 53.1% NO to 46.9% YES.
11:22 PM- Falkirk 53.2% NO to 46.8% YES. OVERALL is 53.2% to 46.8%. All talk is about devolution and how Cameron’s speech to the Scots promising the same swayed the vote for NO.
11:28 PM Angus- 53.5% NO 46.5% YES, Dumfrees and Galloway 65.7% NO 34.3% YES East Renfrewshire 63.2% NO 36.8%. Renfrewshire NO 52.8% YES 47.2%
Aberdeen City NO 59% to YES 41%
11:45 PM- North Lankarshire 50.1% YES to 49.1% NO Perth and Kinros 60.2% NO to 39.8% YES
11:53 PM 53.5% YES to 46.5% NO SKY NEWS is projecting the NO VOTE will win.
Today 4 million Scots are expected to vote for or against independence from the UK. The 307 year long union which formed “Great Britain” could be severed today, which has massive implications for the UK, NATO, and the world.
Whatever the result of today’s vote, Scotland is going to have more independence and “localist” movements around the world and even in the US are going to take their cue from this event to demand more devolution of central powers to state/pronincial and local control- true “localist” self-government will get a shot in the arm that many freedom-minded people embrace.
Here is my prediction and what I think is best for Scotland (Bill Collier)-
I predict- the Scots will not vote for independence. But it will be close. However, I believe that the eventual independence of Scotland is inevitable. I predict the British Parliament will reneg on its promises to “devolve” more central powers and give more powers to Scotland, which will spark a new move towards independence. This is not the end of the story but just part of a process.
I think Soctland is stronger and better as part of the UK, both now and for the long haul. They are 5 million, England are 52 million, and they get more than they give in the relationship. With some devolution, which probably won’t go far enough for the Scots, they could have their experiment in reshaping their society according to their predominent ideology, which tends towards cooperativism, collectivism, and eco-sustainability.
Paul Collier, the co-editor of The Freedomist, feels differently. He thinks Scotland should declare independence on principle: the devolution of “big” to “small” is seen as healthy and inevitable. We both agree on two points: it is slightly more probable that the Scots will not vote for independence today but that independence is likely inevitable.
Stay tuned for more updates.