The Freedomist
Handicapping the Republican Field: Part II, the Wild Cards
I mentioned last week that I’d thought we’d seen the emergence of a relatively distinct “top tier” of Republican candidates, consisting of Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. Having taken a deeper look, I am more confident in that claim — I’d posit that there is a better than an 80 percent chance that the nominee will be one of those four people.
Other candidates, however, could come through — with some outside chance of winning the nomination if things break the right way. We’ll look at those candidates in this article. (As a reminder, the
Article source: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/24/handicapping-the-republican-field-part-ii-the-wild-cards/
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