Middle East War Warning- Medium to Low

Unconfirmed, but credible and frequent, reports from Northwest Iran state that units of the Iranian military and police forces are leaking information about being committed to the “green movement.”

A serious, coordinated protest, with possible armed protesters could break out as soon as tomorrow and there appears to be at least a significant minority of protesters who are prepared to face certain death rather than back down.

This situation is extremely volatile: the regime are messianic/apocolyptic dreamers and the green movement are willing to become martyrs for the cause of freedom.

If you are a Westerner and you are in Iran, Syria, or southern Lebanon WE STRONGLY urge you to get out of those areas as you are most likely a target!

There are credible reports from inside Iran, with video from multiple sources, that the Basiji (with foreign fighters, especially Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorists) are conducting coordinated attacks using rocks, bricks, and other objects. So far the Italian, French, German, and Dutch embassies are reported to have been attacked, although the Dutch embassy may not have been targeted (there is some confusion).

These are STAGED protests which are likely, as per our report of probable outcomes, to be part of an escalation process towards some move against Westerners IN COUNTRY, which could include executing western prisoners and/or storming embassies.

The intelligence we have is that the ultimate target is the British Embassy and we believe that a take-over of that embassy is a definite possibility by the Basiji.

In light of the rounding up of dissidents and this new development, it is looking increasingly like the promised “punch” on Feb, 11, 2010 will involve an internal attack on Western targets, possibly by the Basiji with the government claiming “ignorance”, all designed to:

1. provoke anger by the West against Iran and use this to both distract the domestic audience from their troubles and the foreigners from helping Iranian freedom fighters and…

2. have some form of “deniability” whereby the regime can say they were not responsible: executions of alleged Basiji, probably actually dissidents, in public would be designed to put some distance between Tehran and the actions

The Regime wants to finish its race to the Bomb, it wants to eliminate the opposition, and it wants to throw the West off the scent: make them focus on an offense that is enraging but that is not a “cause of war.”

An distraction directed at Israel from a low-level attack by Hizbollah and Hamas, an attempt to repeat, albeit not to the same degree as before, the last “war” would be designed to further distract the US and Israel.

The problem is that the regime has to count on:

1. being able to contain the opposition: if the opposition is as deep and wide as it appears, it would take rivers of blood to quell it and leave Iran a wasteland

2. being right about how supine the West will be

3. being able to contain Israel and prevent them from acting- one can be sure that via Kurds and possible other groups, Israel’s Mossad and special operations forces are probably IN COUNTRY already and quite happy to support a popular uprising

Article and old update  follows AFTER most recent UPDATE
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Feb. 09, 2010 20:29 z 17:29 EDT

Iranian Freedomists are being rounded up and yet the surge of support for Iranian Freedom (Azadi) continues.

The Iranian Resistance has posted stories of Freedom Fighters who were arrested, among whom…

Journalists Akbar Montajabi, Ehsan Mehrabi, Jalali Farahani, Ali Kalaee, and Somayeh Momeni in Prison

Akbar Montajabi a prominent journalist with reformist newspapers and magazines who works for the Irandokht publication was arrested by the security agents at two o’clock on Sunday morning. Montajabi previously worked for such publications as Yas-e-No, Shargh, and Etemaad Meli and also for weekly publication Shahrvand-e Emrooz as a reporter in the political section. On the same night, Ehsan Mehrabi, parliament reporter of the Farikhtegan newspaper was arrested at his home. Mehrabi’s credentials also include working for Hambastagi newspaper. In addition to these two, Zainab Kazemkhah, the literary reporter of ISNA was also arrested on Sunday morning in her home.

The website is HERE—->

___________________end update_____________________

On Thursday, 11 FEB 10, if we are to believe the ranting coming out of Tehran, the Iranian regime is set to deliver a “stunning blow” to the West.

The problem with assessing what this will involve is two-fold- lack of knowledge of all the facts on the ground and the seeming irrationality of the what the regime in Tehran believes (it is “rational” in light of the belief, but the beliefs are not the typical elements of statecraft).

We know the following:

1. Iran is increasing enrichment of uranium

2. The dissident movement is widespread and becoming more violent in response to the repression

3. The top leadership, the Ayatollah and the President, seem to be embracing an apocalyptic/messianic worldview that is normally limited to fringe elements of society, such as cults, and that, normally, leads to acts of irrational violence or suicide

4. Iran’s technological progress towards having a nuclear weapon can only be guessed at and, often, these “guestimates” are wrong with under-estimation being more likely than over-estimation

5. Syria is “saber rattling”, sending offensive, long range missiles to Hezbollah and, possibly, Hamas, and has in the past indicated a desire to repeat the Hezbollah offensive of 2006 with a new front group operated in the Golan heights region

6. There is increased Arab violence in Judea and Samaria and the Arab population in Israel is being radicalized by Jihadist groups, the chief of which being Hamas and the PLO

7. Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, while essentially loathing Israel for racist and religious reasons, have estimated that Israel is not going to invade their nations as they exist now or try to topple their regimes, but Iran seems to be setting up it proxy paramilitary/terrorist groups to do just that

8. Turkey is now ruled by neo-Jihadists who are systematically dismantling the secular nature of the Army and has reversed its prior pro-Israel policies, leaning now towards Tehran

9. Israel, perhaps as a consequence of Turkey’s change in relations is now supporting and training Kurdish forces, and most probably (although this is not yet confirmed) the small Assyrian Christian militias against pro-Iranian groups and against Syria and Turkey (although Israel denies that its pro-Kurdish stance is directed against Turkey

10. Iran holds a number of Americans hostage and the Bashiri, the terrorist militias of Palestinian and other foreign Jihadist fighters who were imported to Iran by the regime to suppress dissent, want to take the British embassy

11. The regime has now said on multiple occasions, 3 or 4, that they will “punch the west” or “stun the west” on 11 FEB 10

With all of these facts in mind, we can lay out possible scenarios, but because of the limited information we have and because of the rationale of the regime, which is not the rationale of normal statecraft, we cannot say with certainty just what this “punch” they keep threatening will come might be, or even if it will really be significant at all, we cannot know for sure, but a few possible scenarios:

1. We think it most likely that the regime in Tehran will execute the 7 Americans it alleges to be agents of the CIA and blame them, and the US, for the unrest that still haunts Iran’s cities, followed by a massive, bloody crackdown: this may also be achieved by seizing the British embassy, which the Bashiri want to do, in a repeat of the taking of the US embassy

2. Syria has been arming Hezbollah and Hamas with missiles to attack Israel , but it is probable that a heretofore unknown group will attack from the Golan Heights area, probably from Lebanese soil, while demanding “liberation” for the Golan Heights

3. A least likely, but possible, outcome would be a general attack against Israel, which would be from Gaza, an Arab fifth column within Israel (including ALL of Israel, not just Judea and Samaria), and a Syrian-led, Iranian back attack

4. It is possible, additionally, that some surprise, a terrorist attack or uprising, is set for Iraq and/or Afghanistan that would target US forces in an unexpected way

5. A terrorist attack in the US is unlikely, but remotely possible

6. Seizure of disputed Iraqi territory over oil drilling disputes

It should be noted that the regime in Iran is hanging on by a thread, the general populace loathes the regime and wants a change, and, what is worse, has an apocalyptic/messianic ideology so that moves that are not logical and rooted in reality could be considered and carried out, therefore anything is possible. We rank as most probable some form of dramatic crackdown and the arrest or execution of foreigners OR the taking of a western, probably the British, Embassy on some pretext that they are plotting with insurgents.

It is probable that some combination of numerous items, perhaps a watered down version of multiple items, such a low key attack by this new group over the Golan or a terrorist attack on US assets overseas as opposed to the US homeland.

A possible preemptive strike by US, Iraqi, or Israeli forces, or all of them, cannot be ruled out because their High Commands may have access to more telling information than we have at our disposal presently.

Regardless of what happens, we are issuing a WAR WARNING with medium to low probability because the response to this move may lead to a broader war than even the Iranian regime is predicting or a spread of unrest that exceeds all expectations.

A nuclear test or an outright attack on US forces in the Gulf region is least probable and could result in an all-out-general war in which Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq form a coalition against Iran, multiple terrorist organizations, Syria, and possibly even Turkey with the Israeli-Egyptian coalition supported by the US and the Iranian-Syrian coalition supported by Russia and China, however this scenario is only very remotely possible.

It is also possible that whatever happens may be hailed as a “blow” to the west but would end up being nothing more than another “flying submarine that is invisible to radar” or some such fantastical claim.

Mullahs, Leave Those Kids Alone!

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