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By William R Collier Jr
War warning Europe. That might sound incredibly sensational and unbelievable, but the calculus being employed by the Russians and the Europeans right now are both based on such faulty logic as to make the potential for a general European war possible.

The European calculus is to assume that the inter regnum period after the falll of the USSR represents a true and lasting world order, a condominium built on globalist economics and collective security backed by “the sole remaining superpower”, America. This calculus sees all bellicose rhetoric as mere postering, jockying for a better bargaining position on the world stage. When the Russians talk of their own “Drang Nach Westen” it is dismissed as not being a serious literal threat: perhaps, the calculus predicts, they want a better trade deal with the EU or more favorable terms with the IMF, but raw nationalistic, jingoistic imperialism, why, that is so “18th century”!

As for the Russian calculus, they have deduced that Europe is stuck in the mire of their myth of the 21st century, their false belief that we are “beyond” a ground war in Europe, their belief that their US/Western “condominium” is invincible “because of trade ties”. The Russians calculate that Europe will not fight, even if and when Russians focres debauch from Crimea, the East, and from the West in Moldova into the Ukrainian heartland. Of course the Ukrainian leadership has been amazingly feckless and has not mobilized for war, and so while the Ukrainians could fight back hard, it is becoming obvious that they will not do so.

But the European calcusus is wrong, the inter-regnum is over, welcome to a multipolar war of chaos and upheaval! The Russians are no less or more imperialistic than those who use a “world order” and “world trade” to create empires, but the Russians recognize that the time when raw force was not needed to forge empires is over. The past is truly prologue.

But if the Russians think that the old imperial eagle is incapable to seducing the European masses when they feel threatened and abandoned by the old protector, America, then they are wrong. The Germans and the Eastern Europeans alone could take matters in their own hands, especially if they see Russia advancing and the Great Protector retreating in shame. Look for some anxious moments over Kaliningrad (Konigsburg), with the Poles and Lithuanians, surprisingly, prefering a German as opposed to a Russian presence there. Once the Russians undermine faith in the myth of a world beyond empires, the ancient cravings will gnaw away at the imagination of the masses who will want to see their flag flying high on the field of victory.

What might cause a war is that the Europeans don’t believe Russia would dare launch a war and the Russians don’t believe the Europeans will respond. But the Germans and many Eastern European nations have a strong Drang Nach Osten thing going on, they want to hem the Russian bear in lest it break its bonds and reconquer their lands.

This is why a general war warning for Europe, which we issue when probability of war exceeds 10%, is needed for Europe itself. The Bear is coming and so is the response.

 

Analysis by William R Collier Jr
The conventional wisdom has it that Russia has far superior military force versus the Ukrainian military. Analysis based on this usually comes with a chart showing the number of Russian troops, tanks, planes and the such versus Ukrainian numbers. For instance, there are around 700,000 Russian troops versus 160,000 Ukrainian troops.

This is deceptive on four counts.

First, in war it is the actual amount of force available at the strategic point that matters, not the amount of force available to the whole nation. If the Russians could use 100% of their military against Ukrainia (I am spelling Ukrainia as the Ukrainians are spelling it in their language) then the number of total Russian force versus total Ukrainian force would matter. But Russia has a large border and many threats, and one doubts they could muster more than 40% of this total force against the Ukrainians. That’s less than 280,000 Russians versus 160,000 Ukrainians. Still tough odds, but not impossible odds.

Second, Ukrainia has around 1 million men who have some military training and enough arms to equip at least 100,000 of them to a decent level. A new National Guard equipped and trained to deal with rear area security and home defense could muster out more than 100,000. Of course the Russians could mobilize their reserves also, but their situation regarding reserve training and equipment for those reserves is actually worse than Ukrainia’s according to some experts.

Third, the Ukrainians have been stingy with their military but their defense industries have produced much improved versions of former Russian arms, including tanks and aircraft. Ukrainian armor may be smaller in numbers but it is actually superior and more reliable. Ukrainian aircraft have kept on pace with the Russians.

Fourth, the Ukrainians would, if it comes to a fight, be much more motivated and determined. Ukrainian military units in Crimea, though hopelessly surrounded and forbidden until recently from fighting back, have not acted in a cowardly manner, not even “ethnic Russian” members of those units. Their government has acted more cowardly than they have!

A full-on war between Russia and the Ukraine would not be a walk-over for Russia, and indeed I would predict that within a month or two, or sooner, guerilla warfare in the Crimea will begin in earnest. If Russia over-rums areas in the east, the same applies- in no Ukrainian province save the Crimea are ethnic Russians a majority and one would be wrong to assume that all ethnic Russians want to join Putin’s Russia.

The narrative that Ukrainia cannot possibly fight the Russians is more “Russia Today” agit prop aimed at a gullible public and espoused by so-called “military experts” who seem to have forgotten the most fundamental realities of warfare. Certainly the odds do not favor the Ukrainians, and they should not rely on the US or the UK to honor their commitment to guarantee their sovereignty- in fact were I Ukrainian I would immediately start assembling material for nuclear weapons. But to propose that Ukrainia could not offer stiff resistance to the Russians is unrealistic.

 

OPINION BY William R Collier Jr
The Russian Bear is aggresive, imperialistic, and totalitarian. It would seem that history has demonstrated that the Russian Civilization has only ever been animated by these anti-values, and today these “values” are on full display regarding the rape of Crimea.

Apologists for the rape of Crimea allege this or that historical tie to the strategic peninsula. While if indeed the Russian majority or the heirs of the native Tartar minority were being abused or if their aspirations for reunion with Russia or independence were genuine and ignored we would be sympathetic and we would be speaking of Ukrainian intolerance. But no such abuse by Ukrainian authorities has ever been cited or proven, and prior to the arrival of Russian troops (sans insignia), only 40% of the population had favored either independence of union with Russia.

To use what may be legitimate grievances or historical ties as cover for raw imperialistic ambition is an insult to such geniune grievances. It is not unreasonable for the Tatars and ethnic Russians in Crimea to forge a new nation, with the other ethnicities, that embodies their aspirations, but that is not the issue here: the real issue is and remains Russian imperialism.

In 1994 Russia, the US and the UK obliged themselves to protect Ukrainian sovereignty over ALL of its territory and all agreed as to what that territory included: and there was no talk of Russia’s historic ownership of Crimea or of the fact that Russian civilization actually started in and around Kiev, which is now Ukrainian and not Russian. Shall we now expect Russia to take Kiev?

Today Russia protests efforts to draw Ukraine into the EU and NATO. This is a legitimate concern in the realm of “realpolitik”, and indeed Europe and the US had agreed that NATO and the EU would not expand to Russia’s immediate neighbors, namely Byelorussia, the Ukraine, and nations in the Caucus. Nationalist Ukrainians, some who have particular disdain for ethnic Russians who are Ukrainian citizens, have wanted to upend that balance of power and move Ukraine into a camp that is hostile to Russia and that would sever long-standing historic ties.

That being true, however, the Russian rape of the Crimea is not justified by any of this, and indeed the legitimate grievances Russia might claim are being used as mere pretext for outright imperialism by an outright dictator.

The US and the UK made a fool’s bargain in 1994, but they asked the Ukrainian state to surrender its nuclear arsenal in exchange ofr “iron clad” guarantees of the agreed-upon borders of that state, borders which have now been breached by the insertion of armed men across those borders and by the installation of a Quisling regime in Simferopol, Crimea’s capital. The Ukrainian state has surrendered those weapons, they have even reduced their conventional military arsenal, and today those arms would have been proof against Russian aggression, but the US and the UK are not going to honor their foolishly made commitment.

The lesson of Crimea is not lost on the world.

When facing potential threats, no nation should ever surrender its arms, including nuclear, in exchange for “iron clad guarantees” from third parties. The Ukraine made a foolish bargain, the US and the UK did not mean what they said, and Russia has shown that she will use seemingly legitimate issues to give cover for her raw ambition. The real world of the laws of nations has been concealed by the Cold War and then America’s willingness to intervene and act as the world cop. With these two historical anomolies removed the world will march on as it has for thousands of years before these anomolies occured.

I do not propose that the US and the UK should go to war over Crimea. The Ukrainians have not, therefore they have no right to demand that others pick up the ball they dropped. But the issuance of such guarantees is a futile act, and the acceptance of such guarantees is even worse.

Russia will keep the Crimea, our moral outrage notwithstanding, but her neighbors had better decide to become armed, by any means necessary, because they can only count on themselves to fight back WHEN the Russian Bear comes calling.

 

The Democrats have an image problem with Obamacare coming from their own strongholds, those staunchly democratic states where no republican opposition or obstruction can be cited as evidence of the leviathan law not working.

In one strongly blue state, Maryland, where the democrats control the legislature and the governors office, the Obamacare rollout has had some unintended disastrous effects.  Bear in mind, for the democrats, this is a state that signed up for everything it was instructed to sign up for, including the Medicare expansion and creating its own healthcare exchange.

Legal Insurrection covers in more detail what’s going wrong in Maryland that is damaging the democratic narrative of GOP failure leading to Obamacare failure:

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In an abrupt about-face, Lois Lerner will now come before the Issa-led congressional hearing on the IRS Tea Party scandal.  The question remains- will she actually testify, answer questions, or will she once again invoke the 5th amendment?  Another question for many observers is this- if this is much ado about nothing, why is Lerner wary of testifying without immunity?  Why did she plead the 5th in the first place?

If Lerner does testify without invoking the 5th amendment, her testimony is sure to either put to rest the IRS Tea Party scandal or potentially move this story back to the headlines, even among traditional democrat-leaning Mainstream Media Outlets:

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The fallout for the already embattled Mayor of New York, Bill De Blasio, is just beginning on his school charter assaults.  The recent moves by De Blasio towards eliminating charter schools in his city have parents of the poor children the Mayor has identified, during his campaign and speeches since being elected Mayor, as his core constituency, up in arms.  How this will grow remains to be seen.

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A chink in the anti-gun armor of NY’s SAFE act came in the form of a recent ruling by a NY Municipal Court Judge.  The Judge’s ruling clearly limits the power of the police to arrest and charge citizens for violating the SAFE Act.  If this ruling holds, the police will be significantly handcuffed in their ability to enforce and prosecute the SAFE Act.  The Police have to find just cause for investigating a gun to see if it has 7 rounds in the magazine
Here is a highlight from guns.com on the significance of this case:

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OPINION ANALYSIS BY WILLIAM R COLLIER JR

Residents of the US state of Connecticut are outraged about a new plan set forth by authorities (as evidenced by letters sent to gun owners) to begin a door to door gun confiscation program after the state’s legislature allegedly, according to some citizen groups, “nullfied the second amendment” which many see as an inviolate standard or right to own firearms for self-defense, including defense against their government.

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The Ukraine crisis reveals the danger of a promise perhaps too easily made, too easily broken, and yet a broken promise that will lead to global geopolitical destabilization.

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William R Collier Jr
UPDATE FEB 28, 2014
There are now reports that Russian military, around 300 special forces troops in one instance, had seized control over Ukrainian airports in the Crimea and are surrounding Urkaine border control units in an apparent bid to seize the vital peninsula from the Ukraine. Some reports have come in stating that Ukraining units have retaken the airports, without incident, this as the ousted Ukraine President holds a defiant press confererence from inside Russia and in the Russian language.

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FREEDOM ESSAY
Paul Gordon Collier

Are you free to raise your children as you choose?  Unless you can afford to send your children to a private school that echoes your value system, you are mandated by the government to send your children to a public school, controlled, managed, and designed by the Federal and State government.  That school has adopted an entirely atheist value system which it passes on to your children, regardless of the value systems of the parents, which, in the United States is overwhelmingly Christian.

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MASSACHUSETTS
Paul Gordon Collier

In a stunning ruling regarding the Justina Pelletier case, a Suffolk County Judge has ruled that Justina Pelletier will be sent into foster care.  The ruling caused the mother of Justina, Linda Pelletier, to faint.  She had to be carried out on a stretcher.  She was taken to Massachusetts General Hospital and is expected to be released soon.

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Paul Gordon Collier

Progressvism- when you see a group of people enjoying higher standards of living than everyone else, you work to bring them down to a similar level to everyone else

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BETHLEHEM, PA
Paul Gordon Collier

When  your 3rd grade daughter comes home from school these days, you look through EVERYTHING she brings home, just waiting for an example of government political intrusion.  My 9 year old daughter is tasting Common Core this year, but only in math.  She is noticing that the school covers certain moments in history in very selective ways, such as Martin Luther King, portrayed only as a civil rights activist.  The school chose to leave out the fact that King was a preacher.  As a matter of fact, when asked how he would most like to be remembered, King replied “as a preacher”.

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The True Heirs of Hitler?
Paul Gordon Collier

Nazism is a nationalistic version of Socialism. Many progressives refer to Nazis as being right wingers because of the nationalistic element of their political ideology.

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William Raymond Collier Jr

The Democrats who say Obamacare frees people from working just to have health insurance actually have a point, their solution is the problem, however. But, once again, conservatives ignore that there really is a problem at all.

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From our local newspaper, The Tioga Freedomist, here is an article from our Senior Correspondent, Lonny Frost, about a viral video  that touched off a firestorm in Tioga County, PA, but ended up having International ties.  Lonny tracked down the source of the viral video to put to rest the steady stream of rumors coming out of Tioga County PA in response to this video:

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OPINION BY WILLIAM COLLIER JR

Despite a court setback, if Net Neutrality only faces the ire of Republicans it is doomed to eventually succeed….and fail.

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IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL REACHED- we are awaiting details and making calls to our own sources on the details of a deal with Iran that will see sanctions eased in exchange for promises of a limitation of some kind on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.

This deal occurs as the Israeli government has declared that it is not bound by any such deal and will use force if they believe the Iranians are close to producing a nuclear weapon.

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Buck Sexton of The Blaze presented an essay that we think merits printing- the essay is from 1899 by a man named Elbert Hubbard.  The essay is called “A Message to Garcia”.  This essay illustrates the kind of people we need to deliver our message of freedom and liberty to the people and the kind of people we do not need.  Here it is:

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